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供需压力仍存,氯碱短期承压
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 13:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC monthly analysis: In July, China's PVC powder output was 1.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. The overall start - up in July slightly declined but remained at a high level compared to the same period. With the resumption of production after maintenance of some devices and the addition of 900,000 tons of new capacity gradually reaching mass production in August, PVC output is expected to continue to rise, and the supply - side pressure remains high. The export may be affected by India's import policy and the rainy season, and the domestic demand is weak. PVC social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. After the previous macro - disturbance, the PVC trend is still under pressure [4][2]. - Caustic soda monthly analysis: In July, the upstream start - up of caustic soda remained at a high level compared to the same period. The main downstream, alumina, has expanding profits, and the previous production - cut devices have resumed production one after another, with a continued increase in start - up, providing short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum end has little change in start - up and remains weak in the off - season. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of caustic soda is high, the price of liquid chlorine has rebounded, the industry inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali profits in the later stage [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - alkali New Capacity Situation - PVC: In 2025, the planned new PVC capacity in China is 2.2 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 7.99%. In the third quarter, 1.4 million tons of capacity will be put into production, increasing the pressure. Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons and Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s 500,000 tons were completed and put into production at the end of July and are expected to reach mass production soon [15]. - Caustic soda: In 2025, the planned new caustic soda capacity in China is about 2.2 million tons, with an expected capacity growth rate of 4.47%. In August, attention should be paid to the commissioning of Tianjin Bohua and Gansu Yaowang. However, due to issues such as the treatment of by - product liquid chlorine and policy constraints, the actual commissioning in the second half of the year may be less than expected [16]. Chlor - alkali Supply Situation PVC Domestic Supply Analysis - In July, China's PVC powder output was 1.99 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year increase of 7.16%. With the resumption of production after maintenance of some devices and the support of chlor - alkali profits, the overall start - up is rising. The addition of new capacity will further increase the supply - side pressure [23]. Caustic Soda Domestic Supply Analysis - In July, the caustic soda output was 3.5833 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.88%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.12%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.76%. In August, the maintenance capacity will decrease significantly, and the previous production - cut and maintenance devices in the Shandong main production area will resume production one after another. The price of liquid chlorine, a by - product of caustic soda, has declined, strengthening the cost support for caustic soda [38]. Chlor - alkali Import and Export Analysis PVC Import and Export Analysis - In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 27.61% and a year - on - year increase of 21.03%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1.9605 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.26%. The export in August is still expected to be affected by policy uncertainties [56]. Caustic Soda Import and Export Analysis - In June 2025, the caustic soda export volume was 350,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.91%. The export to Southeast Asian regions such as Australia and Indonesia is relatively large. The export is expected to be supported by the overseas demand for downstream products such as alumina [60]. Current Situation and Outlook of PVC and Caustic Soda Demand - PVC demand in July was still weak. The real estate market was sluggish, dragging down domestic demand. PVC downstream product enterprises' start - up was at a low level compared to the same period, and the demand side was difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent macro - policies on downstream demand [72]. - For caustic soda, the main downstream, alumina, has expanding profits, and the previous production - cut devices have resumed production, providing short - term rigid demand support. The non - aluminum end has little change in start - up and remains weak in the off - season [72]. Current Situation and Outlook of Chlor - alkali Inventory - In July, PVC social inventory continued to accumulate. With the increase in supply and weak demand, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the later stage [110]. - In July, caustic soda inventory showed an overall accumulation trend. The upstream inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the inventory pressure is expected to remain large in the later stage. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm during the "Golden September and Silver October" [110].
国内高频指标跟踪(2025年第30期):涨价预期或降温
Consumption Trends - Consumer spending shows a divergence with weak goods consumption and strong service consumption, particularly in travel and cinema during the summer[7] - Retail sales of automobiles have slightly declined, with wholesale volumes increasing marginally, indicating seasonal and promotional impacts[16] - Food prices continue to drop, with agricultural products seeing an expanding year-on-year decline[16] Investment Insights - As of August 2, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 2.8 trillion, marking the highest issuance for the same period since 2020[22] - New housing transactions in 30 cities have shown a seasonal rebound, but the year-on-year decline in transaction area has widened from 14.8% to 15.4%[22] Import and Export Dynamics - Port operations have slowed due to typhoon impacts, with a year-on-year decline in the number of ships docking at ports[32] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.3%, while import rates have slightly increased by 1.1%[32] Production and Inventory - Overall production has shown marginal weakening, with coal consumption rising seasonally but still reflecting a year-on-year decline[36] - Inventory levels for coal at ports have slightly decreased, while cement and steel inventories have shown seasonal increases[39] Price Movements - Consumer prices continue to decline, with the iCPI showing a slight decrease in year-on-year growth, particularly in transportation and healthcare sectors[42] - Industrial prices are also experiencing a marginal decline, with the South China price index dropping by 1.1%[42] Liquidity Conditions - Funding rates have decreased, with R007 down by 20.7 basis points, indicating a trend towards a more accommodative liquidity environment[46] - The 10-year government bond yield has fallen to 1.71%, reflecting easing pressure in the funding market[46]
英力特最新股东户数环比下降9.03% 筹码趋向集中
英力特8月1日披露,截至7月31日公司股东户数为24895户,较上期(7月20日)减少2471户,环比降幅 为9.03%。 (原标题:英力特最新股东户数环比下降9.03% 筹码趋向集中) 公司发布的一季报数据显示,一季度公司共实现营业收入4.00亿元,同比下降2.32%,实现净利 润-8223.50万元,同比下降17.75%,基本每股收益为-0.2700元。 7月11日公司发布上半年业绩预告,预计实现净利润-1.48亿元,同比下降19.78%。(数据宝) 注:本文系新闻报道,不构成投资建议,股市有风险,投资需谨慎。 证券时报•数据宝统计,截至发稿,英力特收盘价为9.00元,上涨1.69%,本期筹码集中以来股价累计平 盘报收。具体到各交易日,6次上涨,4次下跌。 ...
滨化股份筹划启动H股上市 双资本平台赋能绿色化工龙头跃迁
Core Viewpoint - Shandong chemical leader Binhua Co., Ltd. plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a strategic move to establish an "A+H" dual capital platform and enhance its global presence and competitiveness [1][5]. Industry Transformation - The global chemical industry is undergoing significant changes, with supply-demand mismatches, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks putting pressure on profits. However, long-term trends such as "green transformation," "domestic substitution," and "high-end industrialization" are creating strategic opportunities for structural shifts [1]. - The expansion of the new energy industry chain under the "dual carbon" strategy is generating new market opportunities within the chemical sector, making Binhua's timing for the Hong Kong listing particularly strategic [1]. Growth Drivers - Binhua Co., Ltd. reported strong growth in its Q1 2025 financial results, achieving revenue of 3.782 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 94.14%, primarily due to the production ramp-up of its carbon three and four projects. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 95.9991 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 225.75% [1]. - The company's net cash flow from operating activities surged by 8924.95% to 984 million yuan, indicating a marked improvement in cash flow management [1]. Technological Advancements - Continuous technological breakthroughs are laying the foundation for sustainable development. Binhua's newly developed processes for producing epoxy chloropropane and innovations in water resource utilization and energy-saving technologies have been recognized by industry associations [2]. - The successful production of qualified 6N-grade electronic-grade chlorine and the performance testing of a new alkaline water electrolysis hydrogen production system highlight the company's commitment to advancing in high-tech sectors [2]. Capital Strategy - The upcoming Hong Kong listing is expected to leverage international capital to accelerate Binhua's high-end and green industry layout, particularly in high-end chemical new materials and electronic chemicals [3]. Strategic Planning - Binhua has proposed the "Beikun Plan," which aims to establish a new green energy center in the northern coastal region of Binzhou, integrating renewable energy projects with biomass technology [4]. - The plan includes the development of six core industrial clusters, focusing on high-end new materials, deep processing of light hydrocarbons, electronic chemicals, and more, to promote cluster development in the Binzhou chemical industry [4]. - A strategic technology innovation system will guide industrial development, incorporating various initiatives to foster high-tech projects and support the creation of a zero-carbon industrial park [4].
山东主力下游采购价下调,烧碱承压运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 05:59
山东主力下游采购价下调,烧碱承压运行 市场要闻与重要数据 氯碱日报 | 2025-08-01 PVC: 期货价格及基差:PVC主力收盘价5041元/吨(-118);华东基差-121元/吨(-2);华南基差-61元/吨(+58)。 现货价格:华东电石法报价4920元/吨(-120);华南电石法报价4980元/吨(-60)。 上游生产利润:兰炭价格540元/吨(+0);电石价格2780元/吨(+0);电石利润58元/吨(+0);PVC电石法生产毛 利-134元/吨(+181);PVC乙烯法生产毛利-506元/吨(+89);PVC出口利润-13.8美元/吨(-2.6)。 PVC库存与开工:PVC厂内库存35.7万吨(-1.0);PVC社会库存42.7万吨(+1.6);PVC电石法开工率74.42%(-4.79%); PVC乙烯法开工率70.24%(+3.29%);PVC开工率73.26%(-2.55%)。 下游订单情况:生产企业预售量79.5万吨(+9.9)。 烧碱: 期货价格及基差:SH主力收盘价2560元/吨(-53);山东32%液碱基差34元/吨(+53)。 现货价格:山东32%液碱报价830元/吨(+0); ...
基本面驱动不足,氯碱持续上行受限
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 05:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward trend of the chlor - alkali industry is limited due to insufficient fundamental drivers [1]. - For PVC, the short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment, and it may shift to fundamental logic later. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, with high upstream production and new production expectations in July - August, leading to large supply - side pressure. The demand is weak, and the cost side lacks support. There is pressure to compress chlor - alkali profits [4]. - For caustic soda, the macro - atmosphere related to the renovation of old facilities has weakened, and the market is oscillating weakly. The supply pressure is large, the demand has both rigid support and off - season weakness, and the inventory pressure is increasing [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5159 yuan/ton (- 33), the East China basis is - 119 yuan/ton (+ 53), and the South China basis is - 119 yuan/ton (+ 13) [2]. - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5040 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5040 yuan/ton (- 20) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price is 540 yuan/ton (+ 5), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is 58 yuan/ton (- 4), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 134 yuan/ton (+ 181), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 506 yuan/ton (+ 89), and the PVC export profit is - 11.3 US dollars/ton (+ 5.8) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The in - factory PVC inventory is 35.7 tons (- 1.0), the social PVC inventory is 42.7 tons (+ 1.6), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 79.21% (+ 1.69%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 66.95% (- 1.36%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.81% (+ 0.84%) [2]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 79.5 tons (+ 9.9) [2]. Caustic Soda - **Futures and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2613 yuan/ton (- 29), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 19 yuan/ton (+ 29) [2]. - **Spot Price**: 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 830 yuan/ton (+ 0), and 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1330 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1603 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 739.5 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 737.53 yuan/ton (+ 50.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1819.75 yuan/ton (+ 135.41) [3]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.84 tons (+ 2.45), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.31 tons (- 0.09), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.00% (+ 1.40%) [3]. - **Downstream Operation Rate**: The alumina operation rate is 85.45% (+ 1.84%), the dyeing operation rate in East China is 58.89% (+ 0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.97% (+ 0.42%) [3]. Market Analysis PVC - The short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment. As the atmosphere weakens and approaches the delivery month of 09, it may shift to fundamental logic. The fundamentals have not improved, with large supply - side pressure, weak demand, and lack of cost support. There is pressure to compress chlor - alkali profits [4]. Caustic Soda - The macro - atmosphere related to the renovation of old facilities has weakened, and the market is oscillating weakly. The supply pressure is large, the demand has both rigid support and off - season weakness, and the inventory pressure is increasing [4]. Strategy PVC - **Single - side**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Inter - period**: Do reverse arbitrage when the V09 - 01 spread is high [5]. Caustic Soda - **Single - side**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Inter - period**: Do reverse arbitrage for SH2509 - SH2601 [6].
《能源化工》日报-20250731
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:08
1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply is stable, but 8 - month downstream PTA device maintenance increases and terminal demand lacks improvement. Its trend follows macro - sentiment and oil prices. PX09 is treated with caution and short - bias, and the PX - SC spread is expanded at low levels [2]. - PTA: Current load is around 80%, but 8 - month device maintenance increases. Supply - demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the medium - term. The absolute price follows the cost and market sentiment. TA is short - biased above 4900, TA9 - 1 is in a rolling reverse spread operation, and the PTA disk processing fee is expanded at low levels [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply turns loose in August, and demand is weak in the traditional off - season. It is greatly affected by the macro in the short - term. EGO9 is on the sidelines, and 9 - 1 is in a reverse spread operation [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply - demand is weak in the short - term, and the absolute price follows the raw materials. The operation strategy is the same as TA, and the PF disk processing fee fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [2]. - Bottle - chip: Supply is high, demand follows up generally, and the processing fee increase is limited. The absolute price follows the cost. PR is the same as PTA, and the PR main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 600 yuan/ton [2]. Urea Industry The core contradiction of the urea fundamentals is unresolved, and the market is in a shock pattern. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, and the release of export demand needs to be tracked [10]. Crude Oil Industry Overnight oil prices rose, driven by macro and geopolitical factors. In the short - term, the upward momentum of prices depends on the continuation of geopolitical tensions. It is recommended to use a band - trading idea, with short - term long - bias [55]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are stable for now, and it is expected that the liquid caustic soda price will be stable this week. Attention should be paid to risk avoidance [43]. - PVC: The disk is volatile and relatively resistant to decline. Spot prices are rising, and export expectations are good. However, the overall supply exceeds demand, and short - term caution is recommended [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply - demand improves slightly in the first quarter, but the destocking amplitude is limited. It follows the overall market sentiment in the short - term, and the main contract BZ2603 follows the oil price and styrene [46]. - Styrene: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the basis is weakening. The price is under pressure, and EB09 is in a rolling short - bias operation [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and there is potential restocking demand. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. PP is short - biased (7200 - 7300), and LP01 is held [50]. Methanol Industry Inland maintenance will peak in early August, production is high, ports are slightly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weakening. In August, imports are still high, and downstream demand is weak. The MTO09 profit can be expanded at low levels [58]. 3. Summary by Catalog Polyester Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry showed small fluctuations on July 30th compared with July 29th. For example, Brent crude oil (September) rose by 1.0%, and POY150/48 price rose by 0.6% [2]. - **开工率**: Asian PX, PTA, and MEG comprehensive开工率 showed different degrees of change, with polyester comprehensive开工率 rising by 0.5% [2]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures prices of different contracts showed small fluctuations, and spot prices in different regions also had slight changes. For example, the 05 - contract of urea futures rose by 0.28% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 1.26% on August 1st compared with July 31st, and factory inventory increased by 6.81% week - on - week [10]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 31st, Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose, and spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 changed [55]. - **Inventory and Production**: US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 769.8 barrels compared with the previous week [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of East China calcium - carbide PVC increased by 0.8% [43]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Caustic soda and PVC开工率 changed slightly, and inventory also had certain fluctuations. For example, PVC total social inventory increased by 3.9% [43]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads changed. For example, the price of pure benzene in East China spot rose by 0.7% [46]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries changed, and port inventory increased [46]. LLDPE and PP Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.28% [50]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: The开工率 of PE and PP devices and their downstream industries changed, and enterprise and social inventory also had certain changes [50]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices changed. For example, the MA2509 closing price decreased by 0.62% [58]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Methanol enterprise and port inventory changed, and upstream and downstream开工率 also had certain fluctuations [58].
PVC:短期偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:34
商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 31 日 PVC:短期偏弱震荡 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 9-1月差 | | 5159 | 5060 | -99 | -137 | 资料来源:隆众资讯,国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 市场现货震荡调整,受政策预期影响盘面开盘拉升,然午后预期未有利好盘中转跌,PVC 供 需基本面维持双弱,新增产能投产供应维持高位,内外贸需求淡季,行业库存继续累库,现货价格承压,华 东地区电石法五型现汇库提在 5050-5150 元/吨,乙烯法在 5000-5200 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 PVC 在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善,考虑到 PVC 装置大多有持续维护升级改造,目前反 内卷政策也未涉及 PVC 行业,因此影响相对有限。但短期仍受反内卷情绪扰动,关注焦煤等商品走势。 基本面看,PVC 行业利润在此 ...
宏观扰动仍存,氯碱震荡整理
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 03:02
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main factors affecting the market trends of PVC and caustic soda are "anti - involution" and the rectification of old devices. The market sentiment has improved, and the futures prices of both have risen. However, the fundamentals of both still face challenges, and the future trends need to pay attention to policy implementation [3] - For PVC, the supply pressure is high, the demand is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and there is pressure to compress the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali [3] - For caustic soda, the supply pressure is large, the demand has rigid support from the alumina industry but is weak in non - aluminum fields, and the inventory pressure is increasing [3] Group 3: Summary of PVC - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5,192 yuan/ton (+43). The East China basis was - 172 yuan/ton (- 83), and the South China basis was - 132 yuan/ton (- 43) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5,020 yuan/ton (- 40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 5,060 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 62 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production was - 134 yuan/ton (+181), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production was - 506 yuan/ton (+89), and the PVC export profit was - 17.1 US dollars/ton (+11.1) [1] - Inventory and production: The in - factory PVC inventory was 35.7 tons (- 1.0), the social PVC inventory was 42.7 tons (+1.6), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 79.21% (+1.69%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 66.95% (- 1.36%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 75.81% (+0.84%) [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 79.5 tons (+9.9) [1] Market Analysis - The short - term PVC futures price is mainly driven by macro sentiment. The fundamentals have not improved significantly. The supply pressure is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is insufficient. There is pressure to compress the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the V09 - 01 spread is high - Inter - variety: No strategy Group 4: Summary of Caustic Soda - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,642 yuan/ton (+49), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was - 48 yuan/ton (- 49) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,330 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 739.5 yuan/ton (+80.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 687.53 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,684.34 yuan/ton (- 50.00) [2] - Inventory and production: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.84 tons (+2.45), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.31 tons (- 0.09), and the caustic soda operating rate was 84.00% (+1.40%) [2] - Downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate was 85.45% (+1.84%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China was 58.89% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 84.97% (+0.42%) [2] Market Analysis - The price trend of caustic soda futures is volatile. The supply pressure is large, the demand has rigid support from the alumina industry but is weak in non - aluminum fields, and the inventory pressure is increasing [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads for the SH2509 - SH2601 spread - Inter - variety: No strategy
《能源化工》日报-20250730
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 02:21
聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 7月29日 | 7月28日 | 单位 | 品种 | 7月29日 | 7月28日 | 涨跌 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 旅跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 布伦特原油(9月) | 72.51 | 70.04 | 2.47 | 3.5% | POY150/48价格 | 6720 | 6715 | ટ | 0.1% | 美元/桶 | 5 | 3.7% | FDY150/96价格 | WTI原油(9月) | 66.71 | 2.50 | 7015 | 7010 | 0.1% | 69.21 | | | 0 | 1.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 7910 | CFR日本石脑油 | ...