Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that market sentiment has declined for two consecutive weeks, suggesting a bearish short-term outlook for market timing [1] - The market sentiment structure indicator was at 1.6 as of March 28, 2025, down 0.6 from the previous week, signaling a bearish outlook for the upcoming week [1] - The article highlights that the A-share market has experienced a decrease in trading volume, with a shift in funds from high-valuation growth sectors to low-valuation defensive sectors [5][9] Group 2 - The sentiment structure indicators show a negative signal, with trading volume decreasing and price-volume consistency declining to low levels [3] - The article notes that the overall trading volume in the A-share market has dropped to levels close to the beginning of the year, primarily due to a cooling off in the technology growth sector [5] - The article mentions that various industries have shown mixed performance, with a low degree of price-volume consistency, indicating a divergence in market sentiment [9] Group 3 - The cyclical defensive sectors are showing a predominantly bullish signal, with short-term trends favoring large-cap value stocks [12] - The public utilities sector continues to indicate a bullish signal, with other sectors like coal, transportation, and petrochemicals also showing positive short-term signals [12] - The relative strength indicators suggest that the large-cap and value styles are currently dominant, with a strong certainty of a shift towards large-cap and value stocks in the short term [14][15]

- The report mentions the "TWO BETA" model, which continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry[3][4][9] - The industry allocation model suggests a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, recommending industries such as new energy[3][4][9] - The timing system signal shows that the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index has narrowed to 3.28%, indicating a market in a volatile state[2][4][11] - The report suggests that if the trading volume falls below 1.1 trillion yuan, the market is expected to rebound[2][4][11] - The current PE ratio of the Wind All A Index is around the 60th percentile, indicating a medium level, while the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile, indicating a relatively low level[3][12] - The position management model recommends maintaining a 50% position for absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index[3][12] Model and Factor Construction - **TWO BETA Model**: This model recommends the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry. The model's construction details are not provided in the report[3][4][9] - **Industry Allocation Model**: This model suggests a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, recommending industries such as new energy. The model's construction details are not provided in the report[3][4][9] - **Timing System**: The timing system uses the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index to determine market trends. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 5253 points and the 120-day moving average at 5086 points, with a distance of 3.28%[2][4][11] Model and Factor Evaluation - **TWO BETA Model**: Continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on communication equipment and military industry[3][4][9] - **Industry Allocation Model**: Recommends a mid-term focus on sectors experiencing a turnaround, such as new energy[3][4][9] - **Timing System**: Indicates a market in a volatile state, with the distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages narrowing to 3.28%[2][4][11] Backtest Results - **Timing System**: The distance between the 20-day and 120-day moving averages of the Wind All A Index is 3.28%, indicating a market in a volatile state[2][4][11] - **Wind All A Index**: The current PE ratio is around the 60th percentile, and the PB ratio is around the 20th percentile[3][12] - **Position Management Model**: Recommends maintaining a 50% position for absolute return products based on the Wind All A Index[3][12]

Group 1: Traditional Consumer Sector Insights - The initiation of traditional consumer market rallies often stems from large-scale economic stimulus or recovery in the real estate cycle, which boosts demand expectations, alongside technological innovation and consumption upgrades that open growth space for the industry [3][8] - Historical examples show that comprehensive economic stimulus supports a broad recovery in consumption, with policy-driven sectors like automobiles and home appliances rebounding first, while policy withdrawal poses potential risks [8][9] - The real estate cycle significantly impacts consumer demand, particularly in sectors like liquor and home appliances, with notable rebounds following favorable housing policies [9][10] - Short-term opportunities may arise in the consumer sector as valuations are at historical lows, with government policies promoting consumption in areas like home appliances and consumer electronics [11][12] Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - Fiscal data from January to February indicates a slowdown in public fiscal revenue growth, primarily due to a decrease in land revenue, while central government spending and social welfare expenditures have shown strong growth [13][14] - The public fiscal deficit has begun earlier in the year compared to previous years, reflecting a significant expansion in the budget deficit and a faster issuance of general government bonds [15][16] - The government is expected to provide robust countermeasures against uncertainties in foreign trade, with monetary policy adjustments anticipated to support fiscal efforts [14][15] Group 3: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The report outlines three analytical frameworks to estimate the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation, with the first framework assuming complete pass-through of tariff costs to consumer prices [5][17] - The second framework considers corporate pricing behavior, differentiating between consumer goods and intermediate goods, leading to more accurate estimations of tariff impacts on inflation [5][18] - The dynamic equilibrium model suggests that the actual impact of tariffs on inflation may be lower than initial estimates, accounting for demand changes and trade responses [19][20] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - BYD - BYD reported a 29.02% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, reaching 777.1 billion yuan, with a net profit of 40.25 billion yuan, reflecting a 34% increase [32][33] - The company achieved a 41.3% increase in vehicle sales, with significant growth in overseas markets, indicating strong demand for its products [32][33] - BYD maintained high R&D investment, totaling 54.2 billion yuan in 2024, which is expected to support future growth through new technologies and product enhancements [32][33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that market sentiment remains highly volatile, with a short-term shift from bullish to bearish [1][2] - The market sentiment structure indicator reached a low of -0.85 on January 13, 2023, and has since recovered, peaking at 2.2 as of March 21, 2025, signaling a bearish outlook for the upcoming week [2][3] - Despite a generally optimistic view on A-shares, there is an increasing emphasis on defensive attributes as the market shows signs of weakness [3][4] Group 2 - The analysis of various sector indicators shows that the public utilities sector continues to signal bullish trends, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, transportation, and coal are also showing positive short-term signals [5][6] - The technology and media sectors have experienced significant pullbacks, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [5][6] - The relative strength index (RSI) analysis indicates that the overall market sentiment is shifting towards value styles, with a stronger certainty in the short-term transition to value [6][7]

以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者范亮 郑怀舟 36氪财经 . 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 3月21日A股、港股市场均迎来比较剧烈的回调，万得全A下跌2%，恒生科技指数下跌超3%。 分概念板块来看，前期大热的英伟达链、AI链、机器人链集体大幅回调，石油石化、港口、公路、电力等公共事业板块则有所上 涨，风格上呈现估值高切低的态势，或者说，呈现出明显的低估值分位红利股的偏好。 那么，这是否意味着市场已经开启系统性的风格切换？资金究竟会流向何方？ AI、机器人为何退潮？ 从2月底的高点至今，万得人工智能指数已经累计回调近10%、机器人指数回调约5%，期间呈现反复震荡下行的态势，同时，港 股市场中恒生科技指数3月份也从高点回调近9%。 出现这种情况的最主要原因，一是板块缺乏增量消息，市场情绪开始退潮；二是港股科技股财报季接近尾声，英伟达GTC大会结 束，埋伏资金开始获利离场。 首先从市场情绪来看，以周度换手率为参考指标，万得人工智能、万得机器人指数的换手率从2月份的35%-40%下降至目前的 20%-25%，换手率水平回落至2024年11月初，证明两个板块的市场情绪有明显的回落，这意味着春节 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3364.83 points, and the total trading volume around 1.5 trillion yuan [1] - The week saw a notable pullback in growth sectors, with the ChiNext Index, STAR 50, and Innovation Index showing significant declines, while the value style represented by the CSI Dividend Index remained relatively resilient [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.31%, the Shenzhen Index by 0.90%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.20% [1] Industry Performance - The average decline across Wind's first-level industry indices was 0.37%, with 62% of the Wind Top 100 Concept Index showing positive returns [8] - 42% of sectors achieved positive returns, with notable gains in automotive (up 3.04%), household appliances (up 1.73%), and building materials (up 1.70%) [1][8] - Conversely, sectors such as food and beverage, media, and beauty care experienced significant declines, with losses of 2.54%, 3.08%, and 3.16% respectively [1][8] Fund Issuance - A total of 34 funds were issued last week, including 20 equity funds, 5 mixed funds, 7 bond funds, and 2 FOF funds, with a total issuance of 31.87 billion units [1][14] Fund Performance - The Wind China Fund Total Index decreased by 1.15% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index down by 2.18% and the mixed equity fund index down by 2.25% [2][6] - The bond fund index saw a slight decline of 0.05% [2][6] Global Asset Review - Global major asset classes returned to an upward trend last week, with developed market indices rising, influenced by the results of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [2] - The Asian markets performed strongly, particularly the Indian SENSEX30 index, which showed significant gains [2] Bond Market Overview - The U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened, with 10-year Treasury futures rising, while Chinese and U.S. bond futures exhibited inverse fluctuations [3] - The domestic bond market saw a slight decline in the government bond futures index, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.85% [10][12]

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 在当前市场中，分析师报告数量众多，以行业报告为例，每周通常有超过 500 篇的报告。而阅读这些报告通常要花费大量的时间和成本。针对这一 需求，我们利用 DeepSeek-V3 大模型的总结能力对分析师行业报告进行智 能总结和整合，提炼出核心观点和关键信息。 利用大模型衡量景气度 行业研究报告通常提供分析师对行业趋势的深入分析与总体评价，但其应 用性较弱，主要有两个原因。首先，行业评级是行业研报中的标准化输出， 但其并非连续指标，通常仅分为三类，缺乏足够的区分度。因此，分析师 细微的态度和用词变化可能不会导致行业评级的调整。其次，不同证券公 司采用的行业分类标准并不一致，这些差异使得行业比较变得困难。 大模型普及之前，并不容易解决这些问题，而大模型的应用可能为此提供 更有效的支持。为了深入挖掘行业研报的信息，我们对其进行了进一步的 整理与标准化。我们构造了一个能够提取行业研报所涉具体中信一级、二 级行业名称以及对应行业景气度的提示词，并使用 DeepSeek-V3 模型，将 研报摘要作为输入文本得到该研报所属行业、景气度等指标结果。 最新行业研报文本景气度 我 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 大消费需求初现暖意 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 16 日│中国内地 国内周报 研究员 易峘 evayi@htsc.com 研究员 吴宛忆 SAC No. S0570524090005 SFC No. BVN199 wuwanyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 常慧丽，PhD SAC No. S0570520110002 SFC No. BJC906 changhuili@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 联系人 王洺硕，CFA，PhD wangmingshuo@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 一周概览 整体而言，相较于去年春节假期后消费需求及价格指标明显走弱，今年部分 消费量价有边际企稳的积极迹象，或部分受气温回暖提振：上周二手房成交 同比仍在高位、尤其一线城市在高基数下继续回升，或显示大城市居民购房 需求偏强；同时，3 月首周汽车销售额同比回升，上周市内出行活动同比亦 走强。复工方面行业分化加剧，部分工业品价格亦有上行：制造业生产整体 回暖，但建筑钢材成交量同比走弱，春节后铜价/铝价持续上行，光伏产业链 ...

2025.02 晨 星 月 报 01 市场洞察 国内经济企稳向好， 股市回暖债市调整 2月，国内宏观经济稳中向好，反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得50.2，在1月份49.1的基础上回升1.1，重回扩张区间。制造业的景 气水平回升主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数、从业人员指数和供应商配送时间指数环比上行所带来的影响。1月份CPI同比上涨0.5%， PPI同比下降2.3%。相比于12月份CPI和PPI同比分别上涨0.1%和下降2.3%而言，1月份CPI同比涨幅上升主要是受到食品价格和服务价格 拉升的影响，生产资料价格和生活资料价格的降幅同上月基本持平，PPI同比降幅保持不变。 以Deepseek和人形机器人为代表的AI产业链在2月备受市场关注，17日，时隔六年召开的民营企业座谈会释放出国家对民营经济高度重视 和全力支持的积极信号，增强了市场对于整体经济和资本市场的信心，也进一步推升了市场的风险偏好。从投资侧来看，主要股指在2月 悉数上涨，其中上证指数和深证成指分别上涨2.16%和4.48%。代表大盘股、中盘股和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指 数分别上涨1.91%、4.84%和7.26% ...

【 机构观点综评 】 招商基金称，中国资产迎来顺风期，来自全球和国内的两股配置力量均迎来拐点。 银华基金于蕾表示，借鉴海外经验，低利率进入中后期债券波动率下降，金融类资产配置或将由固收类 向权益类 转移。 一、权益市场 1 . 招商基金：中国资产迎来顺风期 招商基金3月投资策略报告称，中国资产迎来顺风期，来自全球和国内的两股配置 力量均迎来拐点。科技方面主题热度可能会受到短期交易资金的影响引发波动，但 随着产业主线的逐步清晰，长线资金将聚焦于真正产业逻辑的龙头标的，在市场波 动中仍可逢低配置。外资重新回流或将重新关注核心资产白马的低估机会，市场整 体回暖后，低估值白马的价值发现或是刚刚开始。 2. 银华基金：低利率后半程增配权益 银华基金于蕾表示，借鉴海外经验，在低利率环境下，债券资产整体表现较好，进 入中后期债券波动率下降，而股票资产波动依然显著，且通常股债表现为负相关。 当无风险利率下降至较低水平时，伴随着经济基本面的企稳回升，金融类资产配置 或将由固收类向权益类转移，在利率低位环境下考虑增加权益类资产配置，企业盈 利最差阶段或已过去。 3. 博时基金：港股依然比A股具有性价比 博时基金赵宪成指出，与A股 ...