格隆汇1月27日丨赣锋锂业(002460.SZ)公布，预计2025年归属上市公司股东的净利润110,000万元– 165,000万元，同比扭亏为盈，扣非亏损60,000万元–30,000万元。1、报告期内，公司持有的 Pilbara Minerals Limited（PLS）股票价格上涨产生了公允价值变动收益，在领式期权相关的既定风险管理策略 对冲后，整体公允价值变动收益约10.3 亿元。 2、根据《企业会计准则第 22 号》规定，公司将报告期内在H股发行的可转换公司债券整体指定为"以 公允价值计量且其变动计入当期损益的金融负债"。受公司股价显著上涨及绝大部分债券持有人行使转 股权影响，本期确认了相应的公允价值变动损失。3、公司通过转让控股子公司深圳易储数智能源集团 有限公司部分股权并成功引入战略投资人，确认了相应的投资收益。4、根据《企业会计准则第 8 号》 的相关规定，公司对存在减值迹象的资产（包括长期资产）进行了减值测试，并相应计提了资产减值准 备。 ...

格隆汇1月27日｜赣锋锂业(002460.SZ)公告称，公司预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为11.00亿 元–16.50亿元，上年同期亏损20.74亿元，同比扭亏为盈。报告期内，公司持有的PilbaraMineralsLimited （PLS）股票价格上涨产生了公允价值变动收益，在领式期权相关的既定风险管理策略对冲后，整体公 允价值变动收益约10.3亿元。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，1月27日，雅化集团(002497.SZ)公告称，预计2025年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 6.00亿元~6.80亿元，同比增长133.36%~164.47%。报告期内，公司优质头部客户订单稳定，下半年锂盐 市场价格有所回升，部分客户终端产品市场反馈良好带动公司第三、四季度产品销量大幅增长。同时， 公司加强生产运营各环节管控，加强矿、产、销平衡，提高效率，降低成本，使公司经营业绩持续回 升，较去年同期有所增长。 ...

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: The price of the main lithium carbonate contract dropped from 181,520 yuan/ton on January 23, 2026, to 165,680 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, a decline of 8.73%, showing a slight pullback. The basis strengthened from -11,020 yuan/ton to 12,820 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 216.33%, indicating a significant strengthening of the basis [39]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest decreased from 438,728 lots to 416,719 lots, a reduction of 5.02%, showing a contraction in open interest. The trading volume increased from 342,805 lots to 575,675 lots, a growth of 67.93%, indicating a significant expansion of trading volume [39]. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: According to information, the lithium ore project of Yahua Group (January 16) has improved self - sufficiency; Sigma Lithium (January 23) sold lithium ore and denied operational issues. The price of spodumene concentrate rose from 17,985 yuan/ton to 19,470 yuan/ton (8.26%), and the price of lepidolite concentrate rose from 8,500 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton (2.35%), indicating an increase in raw material costs. The production capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 87.14% [40]. - **Demand Side**: The data from the Passenger Car Association (January 21) showed a year - on - year decline in new energy vehicle sales, indicating weak demand. However, the prices of downstream products such as power ternary materials (from 186,300 yuan/ton to 190,300 yuan/ton, up 2.15%) and power lithium iron phosphate (from 58,630 yuan/ton to 61,175 yuan/ton, up 4.34%) increased, and the prices of battery cells generally rose, indicating demand support. Information mentioned that the cost of energy - storage battery cells increased, with price transmission lagging, and downstream resistance to high prices. In new energy vehicle exports, PHEV growth was faster than BEV, reflecting a change in demand structure [40]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 109,679 physical tons to 108,896 physical tons (a change of - 783 tons, - 0.71%), showing a slight decline in inventory. Warehouse receipt data was not directly provided, but the inventory reduction implied supply tightness or increased demand [40]. Price Trend Judgment Based on the rising supply cost, demand - side support, and decreasing inventory, it is expected that the lithium carbonate futures price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the next one to two weeks, with a possibility of a slight rebound, but attention should be paid to demand changes and macro factors [43].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The lithium supply and demand are currently in a shortage, with a deficit of 0.4 million tons in December 2025, marking four consecutive months of shortage. Supply was 140,000 tons, up 7.2% month-on-month, while demand was 144,000 tons, up 1.7% month-on-month. The total lithium supply for 2025 was 1,389,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 31.2% [4][87] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in December 2025 was 99,900 CNY per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 30%. As of January 26, 2026, the price rose to 178,500 CNY per ton, a 50% increase since the beginning of the year and a 192% increase from the lowest point in 2025 [5][91] - The report suggests that the current demand season is not weak, driving inventory depletion, and the fundamentals are favorable, which will continue to support the rise in lithium prices. After the Lunar New Year, the downstream sector is expected to enter a peak season, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance and potentially leading to further price increases [5][98] Supply Side Summary - In December 2025, lithium spodumene imports were approximately 766,000 tons, up 5% month-on-month and 19% year-on-year. The total import volume for 2025 was about 7,726,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10% [3][14] - Lithium carbonate imports in December 2025 were 24,000 tons, up 8.77% month-on-month but down 14.43% year-on-year. The total import volume for 2025 was 243,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.41% [3][23] - Lithium hydroxide imports in December 2025 were approximately 5,093 tons, up 259% month-on-month and 738% year-on-year. The total import volume for 2025 was about 18,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 125.75% [4][31] Demand Side Summary - The demand for lithium salts in December 2025 was 144,000 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.7%. The total demand for 2025 was 1,345,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42.2% [4][67] - The demand for lithium salts from power batteries in 2025 increased by 52.1%, with total power battery production reaching 1,670.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 53.3% [4][68] - The production of phosphate iron lithium batteries in December 2025 was 423,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 54.6% for the entire year [4][45] Price and Inventory Summary - The average price of lithium carbonate in December 2025 was 99,900 CNY per ton, with a continued trend of inventory depletion, as evidenced by a total inventory of 108,900 tons as of January 22, 2026 [5][95] - The average price of lithium concentrate was 1,305.5 USD per ton in December 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 28% and a year-on-year increase of 61% [5][91]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience high - level shock adjustment, with a focus on marginal changes in supply and demand [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, with an intraday decline of 6.56% and closing at 165,680 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main force in the capital market continued, the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month, and the warehouse receipts increased slightly by 490 tons to 28,646 tons. The average price of SMM electric carbon in the spot market was 181,500 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the raw material market showed a differentiated trend. Overseas lithium spodumene remained stable with a slight increase, while domestic spot lithium ore generally declined. The total weekly operating rate of SMM lithium carbonate was 50.99% (-1.7%), and the total output was 22,217 tons (-388 tons) [4] - **Demand**: There was a significant structural differentiation. SMM lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased production and inventory, the output of power cells decreased slightly. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales increased to 55.6%, and the production and sales of energy - storage cells were strong with extremely low inventory [4] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the four - place sample of SMM increased by 2% (+860 tons) week - on - week, the sample weekly inventory decreased slightly by 0.7% (-783 tons), the total inventory days were 27.8 days, and the inventory structure was significantly differentiated [4] Macro - policy Analysis - **Demand - side**: Multiple incentives such as subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [5] - **Supply - side**: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center in the long term [5] - **Industrial Planning**: The industrial planning of Qinghai Salt Lake, the key points of energy storage in the "15th Five - Year Plan", and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form a coordinated positive effect to support the long - term balance of supply and demand [5] - **Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [5]

Regulatory Actions - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued its first fine of the year targeting market manipulation, with individual Yu Han penalized over 1 billion yuan for manipulating the stock price of "Doctor Glasses" [1] - Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau is investigating misleading statements in the restructuring plan of "Sunflower" [1] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is closely monitoring *ST Lifan and *ST Changyao for suspected false financial reporting, indicating a strong regulatory stance against market violations [1] Banking Sector - Several banks have reduced their operating loan interest rates, with some as low as 2.31%, reflecting a nearly 20 basis point decrease from the previous month [1] - The competition among banks for quality small and micro-enterprise clients has intensified, leading to a price war in the lending market [1] - The financial sector is under pressure to balance price competition with sustainable operations, particularly for smaller banks with weaker client bases [1] Consumer Loan Policies - The implementation period for the personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been extended to December 31, 2026, with adjustments made to include credit card installment plans [2] - Current consumer loan rates are reported to be as low as 3%, with funds primarily allocated for home renovations, vehicle purchases, and travel [2] Biopharmaceutical Industry - Over 50 A-share biopharmaceutical companies are expected to report profits in 2025, driven by improving industry conditions and favorable policies [3] - As of January 26, 2023, 53 companies have issued profit forecasts, with 14 companies expecting to double their net profits [3] Lithium Market - The lithium carbonate market is expected to return to a tight balance by 2026, despite recent volatility in futures contracts [4] - Supply chain improvements and new mining licenses are anticipated, although challenges remain in waste management [4] Aviation Industry - COMAC plans to increase the production and delivery of its C919 narrow-body aircraft, targeting the delivery of 28 or more units this year [4] Technology and Research - China has achieved a record in superconducting magnet technology with a field strength of 35.6 Tesla, marking a significant advancement in high-temperature superconductors [5] - A study from the National University of Singapore has identified a key protein, DMTF1, that can restore the regenerative capacity of aging neural stem cells, offering potential for new therapies against brain aging [5] Alcohol Industry - Moutai has relaxed its requirements for distributors regarding payment for sauce-flavored liquor, allowing orders based on actual conditions to prevent excessive inventory [6] Corporate Developments - JD Smart Manufacturing has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [6] - Anta Sports plans to acquire a 29.06% stake in PUMA SE for approximately 12.278 billion yuan [6] - Youkeshu intends to change its name to "Xingyun Technology" to better reflect its strategic direction [7] - Fuyijie expects a significant loss for 2025, with specific shareholders planning to liquidate their holdings [8] - Sunny Optical Technology has submitted a listing application for the spin-off of its automotive optical business [8] - Huakong Saige anticipates a net loss of 97 million to 120 million yuan for 2025 due to various operational challenges [9] - Guoen Co., Ltd. has set a preliminary price range for its H-share issuance between 34 and 42 Hong Kong dollars [9] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.43%, the Dow Jones up 0.64%, and the S&P 500 up 0.5%, driven by strong durable goods data [10] - The U.S. dollar has seen a decline, while gold prices have reached historical highs, with significant fluctuations in the commodities market [10]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry: Lithium Carbonate Core Insights and Arguments 1. Lithium carbonate futures prices experienced a significant intraday drop of 14%, primarily due to regulatory guidance on long positions, with no substantial negative fundamentals observed. The outlook remains bullish on lithium prices, and it is recommended to consider buying opportunities after stock pullbacks, specifically for companies such as Salt Lake Potash, Zhongmin Resources, Ganfeng Lithium, and Shengxin Lithium Energy [1][1][1] 2. On the domestic supply side, upstream spring maintenance is about to begin, which will lead to a further decline in weekly production [1][1][1] 3. On the overseas supply side, there will be no new supplies arriving from Africa and Australia before March. The quality of the tailings sold from Brazil's Sigma lithium mine is relatively low, and domestic processing capacity is insufficient, resulting in limited willingness among traders to accept shipments, which has a minimal impact on domestic supply [1][1][1] 4. Demand for energy storage cells remains robust, and the construction of terminal power stations is not hindered. The backdrop of interest rate cuts is favorable for improving yields [1][1][1] Industry: Power Batteries Core Insights and Arguments 1. The demand for power batteries benefits from a significant increase in single-vehicle battery capacity, with December figures reaching 69 kWh. Despite a decline in terminal vehicle sales, battery manufacturers maintain stable production schedules, and February battery production data may become a new positive factor for the demand side [2][2][2] 2. Recent inventory levels across the industry chain remain extremely low, and the structure of inventory has begun to change [2][2][2] Additional Important Insights 1. Upstream manufacturers are experiencing a buildup of inventory, leading to an increased reluctance to sell, while downstream inquiries from traders for purchasing have significantly increased, indicating a shift of inventory from traders to downstream [3][3][3] 2. As the Spring Festival approaches, there is a stronger willingness among downstream players to replenish inventory [4][4][4] 3. Each price drop has led to a substantial increase in downstream purchasing volumes, indicating a growing demand from downstream buyers [5][5][5]

Market Dynamics - The main contract for lithium carbonate experienced significant volatility, initially rising by 6.84% to a high of 189,400 yuan/ton, before closing down 6.56%, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] - By 2026, the supply-demand relationship in the lithium carbonate market is expected to improve significantly, with most supply increases concentrated in the second half of the year [1][4] - The demand for lithium carbonate is increasingly driven by the energy storage sector, which is becoming a new engine for growth [1][10] Regulatory Changes - Recent updates in mining licenses for lithium mines in Yichun indicate a shift in focus to lithium mining, with the process of license renewal expected to take a long time, potentially 1.5 to 3 years or more [2][3] - The regulatory environment is tightening, with new solid waste management regulations potentially impacting lithium production and increasing supply constraints [6][7] Supply Constraints - The transition to lithium mining in Yichun could affect existing production capacity by approximately 95,000 tons, with long-term expansion plans of about 274,000 tons also impacted [4] - The processing of lithium slag remains a significant challenge for lithium mining companies, with the potential for increased costs and regulatory hurdles [8][9] Demand Trends - The demand for lithium from the energy storage sector is expected to grow significantly, with estimates indicating that the total shipment of energy storage batteries in China reached 430 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [10] - The global market for lithium batteries, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, is projected to continue growing rapidly, with expectations of a new wave of production and export activity in 2026 [11][12]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月26日，赣锋锂业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月9日，公司A股股 东人数为319504户。 ...