证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:27，今日沪指跌0.04%，A股成交量735.27亿股，成交金额13116.29 亿元，比上一个交易日增加7.82%。个股方面，3438只个股上涨，其中涨停48只，1867只个股下跌，其 中跌停6只。从申万行业来看，国防军工、石油石化、建筑材料等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为2.94%、 2.43%、1.84%；有色金属、电子、电力设备等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.62%、0.65%、0.64%。（数据 宝） | 汽车 | -0.41 | 536.13 | 0.50 | 交运股份 | -6.41 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电力设备 | -0.64 | 1388.08 | -1.88 | 新联电子 | -7.23 | | 电子 | -0.65 | 2906.37 | 14.92 | 蓝箭电子 | -9.14 | | 有色金属 | -1.62 | 994.70 | 1.85 | 晓程科技 | -7.20 | （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:27） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market opened positively on January 22, with all three major indices rising, while the petrochemical sector is experiencing significant capital inflow into related ETFs, indicating investor interest despite potential future challenges in the chemical industry [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index opened up by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.52% [1]. - The petrochemical industry index showed a fluctuating upward trend, with leading stocks such as Andon Health, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and China Petroleum showing notable gains [1]. Group 2: Capital Inflow - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen a continuous net inflow of funds for 11 consecutive trading days, totaling 414 million yuan, with the latest share count reaching 695 million and total scale at 698 million yuan, both hitting record highs since inception [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to Huatai Securities, the profitability of bulk chemicals is expected to hit a ten-year low in the second half of 2025 due to weak demand and the end of supply-side increases [1]. - The current industry downturn is compared to the bottom of the basic chemical products in late 2015, with potential for industry-wide losses or minimal profits in petrochemical products [1]. - The bulk chemicals sector is at a dual turning point in capacity and inventory cycles, with a recovery in domestic and international demand anticipated by 2026, potentially leading to an upward trend [1]. Group 4: Investment Dynamics - China's chemical sales account for over half of the global market, and future capital expenditure intensity for companies is expected to decline significantly compared to the period from 2015 to 2025, while dividend payout ratios are projected to increase [1]. - The Petrochemical ETF and its linked funds closely track the petrochemical industry index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 59.23% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.60% of the index [1]. - The chemical industry cycle is expected to accelerate its reversal due to ongoing supply-side capacity reduction and a focus on expanding domestic demand [1].

马克龙喊话中国对欧增加投资，中方回应愿推动中欧经贸合作 1月21日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆回应法国总统马克龙在达沃斯演讲中希望中国增加对欧直接投资一事。 他表示中欧经贸本质是优势互补、互利共赢，中国产品靠科研、竞争和产业链形成优势，不刻意追求顺 差。中方鼓励企业赴欧投资，也希望欧方营造公平市场环境，推动双边经贸持续健康发展。详情>> 金融市场犹如变幻莫测的海洋，时刻涌动着投资与经济政策的波澜，深刻影响着全球经济的走向。在 此，喜娜AI为您呈上昨夜今晨的财经热点新闻，全方位覆盖股市动态、经济数据、企业财务状况以及 政策更新等关键领域，助您精准洞察金融世界的风云变幻，把握市场脉搏。 机构预测10只周期股2026年净利大增超10倍，顺周期板块表现强势 本周顺周期板块大幅拉升，截至1月20日，基础化工、石油石化等涨幅居申万一级行业前列，21日有色 金属等继续上涨。国家发改委表示将推动物价回升，"春季躁动"可期。证券时报数据宝统计，汽车、建 材等周期板块中10只个股今年净利或暴增超10倍，如中自科技预计增速超51倍，天音控股超42倍，但部 分个股仅1家机构评级，确定性不足。详情>> 国际金价再创新高，上半年或冲击5000美 ...

天风证券认为，化工行业新增产能进入释放阶段，2026年供需逆转可期。2022Q4在建工程同比增 速达到自2012Q3以来的最高点，化工行业进入新一轮资本开支密集期；在建工程同比增速在23Q1开始 回落，随后震荡下行，25Q1则自18年以来首次落入负数区间。从全行业数据看，固定资产完成同比增 速在25年6月进入负值区间，略落后于上市公司数据，而根据历史情况，化工PPI往往滞后期12个月左 右转正，本轮PPI逐步进入周期低点，2026~2027年"反内卷""稳增长"等系列政策助推下经济走出谷 底、企业盈利底部确认概率较高。 截至9:44，石化ETF（159731）现跌0.30%，持仓股中，浙江龙盛、圣泉集团、中复神鹰等涨幅居 前。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF连续10个交易日获得资金净流入，合计"吸金"3.44亿元。石化 ETF最新份额达6.25亿份，最新规模6.25亿元，均创成立以来新高。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center ...

（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行 业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为59.23%，石油石化行业占比为32.60%，"十五五"开局之年，供给侧 坚持去产能和"反内卷"，需求侧坚持扩大内需，化工行业周期将加速反转。 每日经济新闻 1月21日早盘，中证石化产业指数低开后震荡上行，现涨约0.15%，成分股浙江龙盛、亚钾国际、 三美股份等领涨。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF（159731）近10天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸 金"3.44亿元，最新规模达6.25亿元，创新高。 天风证券分析称，当前基础化工行业PE达到历史66%分位、PB达到历史48%分位，而整体ROE水 平截至2025年三季度末还在历史低位尚未见改善。盈利端看，当前整体化工盈利水平处于较低阶段，存 量产能错 ...

Core Insights - The petrochemical industry in China is transitioning from a price cycle bottom to the beginning of a new price cycle, with expectations of a gradual recovery in market conditions as inventory cycles shift from passive destocking to active restocking [3][11] - The demand for traditional refined products like gasoline and diesel has peaked earlier due to the accelerated penetration of new energy sources, leading to a slowdown in refining capacity growth and a shift towards supply integration and optimization [3][13] - The global petrochemical supply landscape is being reshaped, with a significant shift of the industry focus towards China as European and Korean producers reduce capacity due to high costs and low demand [3][18] Group 1: Industry Overview and Future Outlook - The petrochemical industry is expected to enter a new phase of price and inventory cycles, with policies promoting domestic demand and supply-side reforms supporting this transition [3][11] - The refining sector is moving towards high-quality development, with smaller, outdated refineries being phased out in favor of larger, more efficient operations [3][13] - The supply of petrochemical products is tightening due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine affecting Russian production and exports [3][30] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key investment themes include the "anti-involution" policy that aims to control capacity and improve supply conditions, the transition of traditional petrochemical products towards high-end applications, and the rise of new materials driven by technological advancements [4][6] - Specific sectors to watch include the PX/MEG-PTA-PET polyester chain, polyurethane raw materials, and organic silicon, which are positioned to benefit from supply-side reforms and improved pricing dynamics [4][6] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong integration in refining and petrochemical operations, such as China National Petroleum Corporation and Hengli Petrochemical, which are expected to show resilience and potential for valuation increases as market conditions improve [4][6]

Group 1 - The oil and petrochemical sector showed strong performance driven by multiple factors including rising refined oil prices, geopolitical risks boosting crude oil expectations, continuous capital inflow, and strong performance from leading stocks [2] - Leading stocks surged, with companies like Huibo Petroleum (002554.SZ) and Intercontinental Oil & Gas (600759.SH) hitting the daily limit, while others like Tongyuan Petroleum (300164.SZ) and Zhongman Petroleum (603619.SH) saw increases exceeding 5% [2] - The overall market sentiment was positive, with institutional capital showing increased willingness to allocate funds to the sector, leading to a net inflow of capital [3] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF (159731) rose by 10%, with a total net inflow of 344 million yuan over the past 10 days, reaching a record high of 625 million yuan [3] - Major funds concentrated on refining chemicals and oil and gas extraction, with the sector rising 0.91% and a trading volume of 16.73 billion yuan [3] - Specific stock movements included Guangju Energy (000096.SZ) with the highest net inflow of 14.69 million yuan, while Shenke Co. (002278.SZ) experienced a significant net outflow of 51.44 million yuan [3] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the domestic gasoline price will rise to 7,380 yuan/ton by the end of January, reflecting a 0.82% increase, while diesel prices are expected to decrease to 6,080 yuan/ton, a 1.59% drop [4] - The recent adjustment in refined oil pricing mechanism led to an increase of 85 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, which may enhance profit expectations for downstream refining companies [4] - Geopolitical disturbances have led to a recent increase in international crude oil prices, with WTI closing at $60.34/barrel and Brent at $64.92/barrel, reflecting short-term support from geopolitical and inventory data [5] Group 4 - The 2026 energy economic forecast suggests that fundamental changes in the international crude oil market will continue, with increased downward pressure on oil prices due to a loose supply-demand balance [6] - Projected average prices for Brent and WTI crude oil are expected to be between $53-$63/barrel and $49-$59/barrel, respectively [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas factors such as Trump's remarks and concerns about Japan's fiscal deterioration have led to a decline in major global indexes. Domestically, market enthusiasm has cooled under policy guidance, with a decrease in trading volume and index levels. Currently, investors can focus on the entry opportunities for IC [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The report presents charts showing the relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate, and A - share trends, as well as the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share styles [6][8][10]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - A - share indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65 points, down 0.01%; the ChiNext Index fell 1.79%. Industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, real estate, and transportation led the gains, while communications, national defense and military industry, and computer industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.8 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes all closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 2.39% to 22954.32 points [1]. - The daily performance table of major domestic stock indexes shows the closing prices and daily changes on January 20, 2026, and January 19, 2026 [13]. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - In the futures market, the current - month contracts of IH and IC were at a premium. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2]. - The table of stock index futures trading volume and open interest shows the current values and changes of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts [15]. - The table of stock index futures basis shows the current values and changes of the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [38]. - The table of stock index futures inter - period spreads shows the current values and changes of inter - period spreads for different contract combinations of IF, IH, IC, and IM [43][44].

Fiscal Policy and Investment - The overall fiscal expenditure for 2026 will "only increase" and focus on key areas to "strengthen" support, with a special bond issuance of 500 billion yuan for private investment[2] - A 500 billion yuan guarantee plan for private investment aims to guide banks in providing loans to small and micro enterprises[2] - The implementation of interest subsidies for loans in 14 key industrial chains is expected to support social investment activities and consumption[2] Market Performance - On January 20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.97%, with total trading volume at 27,776.57 billion yuan, an increase of 693.09 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3] - Major global stock indices experienced declines, with the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones down by 2.39%, 2.06%, and 1.76% respectively[3] - The 10-year government bond yield in China decreased by 1.66 basis points to 1.8260%[3] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index closed at 98.5413, down by 0.51%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 10 basis points to 6.9559[4] - Gold prices rose above $4,762 per ounce, and silver prices peaked at $95 per ounce amid increased global risk aversion[2] Sector Performance - The oil and petrochemical, construction materials, and real estate sectors led gains with increases of 1.74%, 1.71%, and 1.55% respectively[3] - The telecommunications, defense, and computer sectors saw declines of 3.23%, 2.87%, and 1.94% respectively[3]

【东财策略】每日复盘20260120 一、市场概况 1月20日A股震荡下行，三大指数集体收跌。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.01%收报4113点，深证成指跌0.97%，创业板指跌1.79%；两市成交额2.78万亿，较昨日小幅放 量。 全天上涨2233家，下跌3102家。 二、行业表现 【东财策略】每日复盘20260120 一、市场概况 1月20日A股震荡下行，三大指数集体收跌。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.01%收报4113点，深证成指跌0.97%，创业板指跌1.79%；两市成交额2.78万亿，较昨日小幅放 量。 全天上涨2233家，下跌3102家。 二、行业表现 分行业看，申万一级行业中，涨幅前五位是石油石化（+1.74%）、建筑材料（+ 截至目前，LPR已连续8个月保持不变。 3）盈方微于今日复牌并披露重大资产重组进展，拟收购上海肖克利及富士德中国100%股权以强化半导体分销业 务。 四、后市展望和思考 融资端约束叠加题材澄清、业绩扰动，行情更可能从"高弹性主线"转向"可验证线索"主导的轮动：一是涨价与供给 收敛的资源、化工链，二是地产链的低位修复与政策预期交易，三是年报预告驱动的业绩线索。 分行业看，申万一级行业中，涨 ...