Core Insights - The Guangdong Foreign Investment Enterprises Top 100 list was released during the 2025 Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Global Investment Conference, showcasing the investment achievements of foreign enterprises in Guangdong and promoting the region's favorable business environment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Overview - The Top 100 list includes multinational companies such as BASF, ExxonMobil, Siemens, and Walmart, based on their cumulative direct investment in Guangdong [2]. - The total investment from the 100 listed companies in Guangdong amounts to $30.4 billion, with the largest single investment exceeding $2.6 billion [2]. - The foreign investors primarily originate from 16 countries and regions, including the United States, Germany, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan [2]. Group 2: Regional and Sector Distribution - 90 of the listed companies are concentrated in the Pearl River Delta cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, while the remaining 10 are from six cities in the eastern and western parts of Guangdong [2]. - The manufacturing sector has the highest representation with 76 companies, and industries such as new-generation information technology, advanced equipment manufacturing, biomedicine, green petrochemicals, new materials, and modern services account for 80% of the list [2]. Group 3: Special Recognition - The Guangdong Foreign Investment Enterprises Association introduced the "Deeply Cultivating Guangdong for 30 Years" list and the ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) Excellence Case list, featuring 43 and 22 companies respectively [3]. - The "Deeply Cultivating Guangdong for 30 Years" list highlights companies that have invested in Guangdong for over 30 years, with five companies appearing on both the Top 100 and this list [3]. - The ESG Excellence Case list aims to showcase foreign enterprises' achievements in areas such as green manufacturing, low-carbon innovation, employee welfare, and social responsibility [3].

Market Overview - The paper sector experienced a decline of 0.95% on October 30, with Jingxing Paper leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3986.9, down 0.73%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13532.13, down 1.16% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Songyang Resources (603863) saw a significant increase of 7.26%, closing at 22.45 with a trading volume of 152,100 shares and a turnover of 332 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include: - Bohui Paper (600966) up 0.81% to 4.95 [1] - Yibin Paper (600793) up 0.80% to 23.89 [1] - Wuzhou Special Paper (605007) up 0.75% to 12.10 [1] - Conversely, several stocks faced declines, including: - ST Chenming (000488) down 0.48% to 2.07 [1] - Qifeng New Materials (002521) down 0.44% to 9.03 [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 297 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 364 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks indicates: - Songyang Resources had a net outflow of 35.89 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Huawang Technology (605377) experienced a net inflow of 8.30 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Wuzhou Special Paper had a net inflow of 7.63 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Insights - The paper sector experienced a slight increase of 0.01% on October 29, with Minshida leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4016.33, up 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13691.38, up 1.95% [1] Stock Performance Summary - Minshida (920394) closed at 41.63, with a rise of 6.99% and a trading volume of 29,200 lots, amounting to a transaction value of 117 million [1] - Xianhe Co. (603733) closed at 22.90, up 2.92%, with a trading volume of 34,900 lots and a transaction value of approximately 78.84 million [1] - Wuzhou Special Paper (605007) closed at 12.01, increasing by 2.56%, with a trading volume of 36,900 lots and a transaction value of around 43.68 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Songyang Resources (603863) at 20.93 (+2.30%), Huatai Co. (600308) at 3.79 (+1.88%), and Sun Paper (002078) at 14.24 (+0.49%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector saw a net outflow of 198 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 182 million [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Huatai Co. (600308) had a net inflow of 16.33 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 15.51 million from retail investors [3] - Xianhe Co. (603733) experienced a net inflow of 2.16 million from retail investors, despite a net outflow from institutional investors [3] - Wuzhou Special Paper (605007) saw a net inflow of 1.77 million from institutional investors and a net inflow of 3.26 million from retail investors [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - No clear - cut core view is presented in the given report content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 SP Main Contract Closing Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on October 28, 2025, was 5226.00. The closing prices on October 27, 24, 23, and 22 were 5258.00, 5240.00, 5250.00, and 5220.00 respectively. The daily price changes were - 0.60860%, 0.34351%, - 0.19048%, 0.57471%, and 0.96712% [3]. - The converted US - dollar prices on these dates were 645.65, 645.65, 642.32, 643.64, and 639.70 respectively. The basis for Shandong Yinxing was 274, 242, 350, 350, and 380, and for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing was 309, 277, 310, 310, and 340 [3]. 3.2 Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian Golden Lion (CFR), the port US - dollar price was 780, the Shandong region RMB price was 6200, and the import profit was - 136.75. For Canadian Lion (CFR), the port US - dollar price was 730, the Shandong region RMB price was 5350, and the import profit was - 585.04. For Chilean Yinxing (CFR, 90 - day letter of credit), the port US - dollar price was 680, the Shandong region RMB price was 5500, and the import profit was - 33.32 [4]. 3.3 Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From October 22 to 28, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged [4]. - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper remained unchanged from October 23 to 28, 2025. The double - offset, double - copper, white - card, and living - paper indices were 5725, 5670, 4350, and 841 respectively [4]. 3.4 Pulp Profit Margin Estimation - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper on October 23, 24, 27, and 28, 2025, were - 0.0774%, - 0.0430%, 0.2667%, and 0.2667% respectively. For double - copper paper, they were 12.9677%, 13.0000%, 13.2903%, and 13.2903%. For white - card paper, they were - 10.3133%, - 10.2892%, - 9.2823%, and - 9.2823%. For living paper, they were 7.1077%, 7.1459%, 6.9932%, and 6.9932% [4]. 3.5 Pulp Price Spreads - The price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp on October 28, 27, 24, 23, and 22, 2025, were 1250.00, 1250, 1350, 1360, and 1350 respectively. The spreads between softwood and natural pulp were 100, 100, 190, 200, and 200. The spreads between softwood and chemimechanical pulp were 1700, 1700, 1790, 1800, and 1800. The spreads between softwood pulp and waste paper were 3924, 3924, 4014, 4024, and 4024 [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $18 million, at the high end of the guidance range of $10 to $20 million, with year-to-date adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations at $87 million, up from $26 million in the same period last year [4][14] - Net sales reached $399 million, a 1% increase year-over-year, driven by a 3% increase in paperboard shipment volumes, partially offset by lower market pricing [13][14] - Net loss from continuing operations was $54 million, or $3.34 per diluted share, primarily due to a $48 million non-cash goodwill impairment [13][14] - The company generated $34 million in cash from operations and approximately $3.5 million in free cash flows during the quarter [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company successfully completed all three planned major maintenance outages for 2025, with costs of $24 million for the Lewiston outage and $16 million for the Augusta outage [4][5] - Fixed cost reduction initiatives are tracking to around $50 million in savings for the year, exceeding the original estimate of $30 to $40 million [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that a competitor is ramping up new SBS capacity, potentially adding up to 10% additional supply to the industry, which could lead to utilization rates dropping to the low 80% range by year-end [6][7] - Current industry oversupply is primarily limited to SBS, but it is impacting other paperboard substrates, with pricing correlations historically observed between SBS, CUK, and CRB [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is exploring adding CUK swing capability to one of its SBS machines, with an estimated capital requirement of approximately $50 million and a projected return of over 20% [11][12] - The company remains focused on defending its SBS market share and maintaining a strong balance sheet, with a target leverage ratio in the 1 to 2 times range and cross-cycle EBITDA margins of 13 to 14% [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the paperboard market, emphasizing the demand for sustainable and renewable packaging solutions [19] - The company expects adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 to be between $13 to $23 million, anticipating slightly lower paperboard shipments due to seasonality [16][18] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $2 million of shares, bringing the total to $20 million against a $100 million authorization [15] - Initial assumptions for 2026 include revenue of around $1.45 to $1.55 billion and a capacity utilization rate in the mid-80% range [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Decision to hold the CUK swing capacity project - The decision to hold the project is due to prioritizing a strong balance sheet and focusing on running SBS mills, with a target leverage ratio in the 1 to 2 times range [23] Question: Market outlook for SBS and import relief - Management is hopeful for a net capacity reduction of 350,000 tons in the first half of 2026, with some signs of reduced European imports [25] Question: Maintenance schedule for 2026 - The cost for maintenance in 2026 is expected to be similar to 2025 levels, with specific schedules to be finalized and communicated in February [27] Question: Incremental strength in shipments and product categories - The company saw strength in food service sales, with optimism from customers and potential import relief contributing to stronger demand [33] Question: Working capital improvements for 2026 - The target for working capital improvements of $20 million will primarily focus on inventory reductions, expected to be achieved in the second half of the year [39]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongshun Jierou's stock price has experienced a significant decline, with a notable outflow of main funds, while institutional ratings suggest a potential upside in the long term [1][4]. Trading Information Summary - On October 28, 2025, Zhongshun Jierou (002511) closed at 8.04 yuan, down 8.74%, with a trading volume of 738,300 shares and a turnover of 604 million yuan - Over the past ten trading days, main funds have seen a cumulative net outflow of 30.18 million yuan, with the stock price dropping 5.02% - The financing balance increased by 7.96 million yuan, while the short selling volume rose by 17,300 shares - In the last 90 days, six institutions have issued ratings, with four buy ratings and two hold ratings, and the average target price set at 9.43 yuan [1][4]. Shareholder Changes Summary - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders in Zhongshun Jierou decreased to 79,200, a reduction of 12.0% from June 30, 2025 - The average number of shares held per shareholder increased from 14,400 to 16,200, with an average market value of 133,800 yuan per shareholder [2][4]. Company Announcements Summary - The 13th meeting of the sixth board of directors on October 24, 2025, approved several resolutions, including the 2025 Q3 report and the reappointment of accounting firm Rongcheng - The board proposed a three-year shareholder return plan (2026-2028) and revisions to the company’s articles of association - A credit limit of up to 5.8 billion yuan for 2026 was approved, along with guarantees for subsidiaries up to 9.44 billion yuan and foreign exchange derivative transactions not exceeding 30 million USD - The board also decided to cancel the supervisory board, transferring its functions to the audit committee of the board [2][3][4].

Core Insights - In September 2025, China's bank settlement and sales surplus reached $51 billion, the highest monthly figure since December 2020, indicating a significant shift in cross-border capital flow back to China [1][3] - The total bank settlement in September was $264.7 billion, with sales at $213.6 billion, resulting in a substantial surplus that reflects a fundamental change in corporate financial strategies [3][4] - The depreciation risk of the US dollar, coupled with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has prompted companies to accelerate the conversion of their dollar assets back to RMB [4][5] Group 1 - The net inflow of foreign capital into China reached $93.1 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, marking four consecutive quarters of net inflow [6] - The onshore RMB appreciated from 7.1805 to 7.1330 against the US dollar by August 2025, the highest level in nearly ten months, supported by increased capital inflows [6] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to further increase the settlement ratio of exporters, potentially leading to additional RMB strengthening [6][9] Group 2 - The stock market is experiencing a systemic revaluation, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs, indicating strong investor sentiment [6] - A 1% appreciation of the RMB could lead to approximately a 3% increase in the Chinese stock market, creating a "Davis Double Play" effect for international investors [6] - Different industries are experiencing varied impacts from RMB appreciation, with import-dependent sectors like aviation benefiting from reduced procurement costs [6][8] Group 3 - Foreign investment strategies in Chinese assets are diversifying, with a focus on "growth leaders and high-dividend blue chips," particularly in technology and industrial sectors [8] - The shift in capital flow patterns is creating more room for monetary policy adjustments, with continuous surpluses in bank settlements since March 2025 [8][9] - The current market dynamics are fostering a positive feedback loop between RMB appreciation and stock market performance, enhancing liquidity and potentially lowering financing costs [9]

Core Insights - The October export expectations index for Germany has dropped to 2.8 points, down from 3.4 points in September, indicating a deterioration in the export sentiment within the German export sector [2] Industry Summaries - The metal industry in Germany anticipates a decline in exports due to external pressures [2] - The chemical and paper industries are also facing downward export expectations [2] - The machinery and food sectors have a more favorable outlook compared to the previous month, but their growth momentum remains uncertain [2] - In contrast, the automotive industry maintains a very optimistic view on overseas business, with export expectations rising again [2] - The electrical equipment manufacturing and beverage industries are planning to increase their exports [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Huazhong Securities has given a "buy" rating to Zhongshun Jierou (002511.SZ) based on its recent performance and future outlook [1] - The company released its Q3 2025 report, indicating a significant improvement in profitability due to a decline in raw material prices and enhanced operational efficiency [1] - Zhongshun Jierou is continuously optimizing its product structure and improving its marketing network, which contributes to its positive outlook [1] Group 2 - The report highlights potential risks including significant fluctuations in pulp prices, exchange rate volatility, regional market competition, industrial policy risks, and safety production risks [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 28.936 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1.66% year-on-year [2][3]. - The report highlights the resilience of profitability at the bottom of the cycle, with expectations for a recovery in industry conditions in Q4, driven by seasonal demand and new production capacity coming online [3][4]. - The company has successfully implemented its "integrated forestry-pulp-paper" strategy, which has created a strong cost advantage, as evidenced by its performance in Q3 [3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.01%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.6%. The net profit for the same period was 720 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.68% [2][3]. - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 15.7% and 8.6%, respectively, showing slight year-on-year changes [4]. - The company has announced its first mid-year dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 2.795 billion yuan, with a distribution ratio of 11.18% [4]. Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The company is advancing its new production capacity projects, including a 600,000-ton bleaching chemical pulp project and a 700,000-ton high-end packaging paper project, both expected to enhance production capabilities and reduce reliance on external pulp sources [4]. - The report anticipates that with the recovery of price levels and the release of new capacity, the company's revenue and profit will enter an upward trajectory starting from Q4 2025 [3][4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 3.436 billion yuan, 4.026 billion yuan, and 4.485 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 11%, 17%, and 11% [4][6].