Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities research report indicates that Huaibei Mining is undervalued as a leading coal and coke company in East China, with a turning point in profitability expected in 2026 [1] Company Overview - The company primarily engages in coal and coal chemical industries, with coal gross profit accounting for 60% and coal chemicals 26% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, while other businesses, including mining, explosives, and power, contribute 10% [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 74%, primarily due to declines in both volume and price of coking coal and a drop in coal chemical product prices [1] - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.495 billion, 3 billion, and 4.11 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -69%, +101%, and +37% [1] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 23.3, 11.6, and 8.5 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Investment Value - The company demonstrates growth potential in coal, electricity, and non-coal mining sectors, with the industry’s coking coal prices expected to rise due to market and policy support [1] - The integrated operation of coal and coke is stable, highlighting the company's investment value, leading to a maintained "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent executive order signed by President Trump mandates the U.S. Department of Defense to purchase electricity from coal-fired power plants, which may lead to significant financial losses for electricity consumers, estimated to exceed $3 billion annually due to the continued operation of plants that were planned for retirement [1][6]. Group 1: Executive Order and Its Implications - President Trump signed an executive order on February 11, requiring the Department of Defense to enter long-term contracts with coal power plants for electricity supply to military facilities, emphasizing the importance of coal for national and economic security [2][4]. - The executive order does not specify the procurement amount but prioritizes coal in energy contracts, reflecting a shift in energy policy favoring coal over renewable sources [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Impact and Industry Response - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that coal will account for approximately 17% of the total electricity generation in the U.S. by 2025, down from about 50% in 2000 [4]. - The Department of Energy plans to allocate $175 million for projects aimed at extending the lifespan of coal power plants in rural areas, indicating a governmental push to sustain the coal industry [4]. - Experts have raised concerns that delaying the closure of high-cost coal plants will lead to increased energy bills for consumers without providing any benefits, as these plants were already slated for retirement due to their high operational costs [5][6]. Group 3: Environmental and Economic Concerns - Environmental advocates argue that the government's focus on coal profits over consumer costs will exacerbate air pollution and increase electricity prices, while hindering the adoption of cleaner energy solutions [7]. - A study by Energy Innovation indicates that 99% of coal plants have higher operating costs compared to renewable energy sources, suggesting that the continued operation of coal plants is economically unsustainable [7].

编者按：乘势而上，阔步向前。2026年是"十五五"开局之年，是全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程的关键起步期。开局即发力，各地动能澎湃，锐意进 取。央广网特别策划推出《行稳致远开新局》，讲述过去五年来各地迎难而上、砥砺奋进的万千气象，呈现经济实力、科技实力、综合国力跃上新台阶背后 的发展肌理，以走在前、作示范、挑大梁的责任担当和发展韧性，为"十五五"开好局、起好步凝心聚力，不断开创中国式现代化建设新局面。 沿着山西长城一号旅游公路行驶，沿途山峦之上，烽火台、城墙等遗迹在车窗外形成一幅流动的画卷。当游人还沉浸在古老长城带来的视觉震撼中时，沿途 朔州广武国际滑雪场里游客的欢笑与雪板飞驰的呼啸，又为晋北大地奏响了一曲冰雪乐章。这座国家级滑雪旅游度假地毗邻广武明长城、旧广武城等历史遗 迹，每年吸引着大批滑雪爱好者前来体验"与长城同滑"的独特魅力，直接带动周边村庄农民人均增收千元以上。 5年里，山西在加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型中奏响奋"晋"强音。全长1.3万公里的三个一号旅游公路，将五千年山西好风光串珠成链，以"文旅+"赋能城 乡蓬勃脉动；全省智能化煤矿达到400座，煤炭先进产能占比提高到84%；黄河干流山西段达到Ⅱ类 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [6] - Thermal Coal: Stable with a slight upward trend before the holiday, potentially under pressure after the holiday [7] 2. Core Views - The current supply - demand situation of steel is weak, with prices slightly fluctuating. The overall contradiction is not prominent, but the pre - holiday inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand pressure is slightly rising [1]. - The iron ore market is in a state of cautious waiting, with prices oscillating. The supply - demand contradiction is deepening, and the support from raw material prices is weakening [3]. - The downstream replenishment of coking coal and coke is completed, and the trading atmosphere is dull. The prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday [5][6]. - The output of thermal coal is continuously shrinking, and the price lacks driving force. The pre - holiday price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and may face pressure after the holiday [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market oscillated downward yesterday, while the spot prices were generally stable. This week, the inventory accumulation of building materials continued to increase, and the plate inventory also rose. The output of building materials decreased significantly, and the output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Before the holiday, the production and sales of building materials declined simultaneously. The short - process production suspension scale increased, and the inventory continued to grow. The demand for plates was relatively stable, but the high inventory restricted the price space of hot - rolled coils. Overall, the pre - holiday inventory of steel continued to increase, the supply - demand pressure increased slightly, and the raw material prices weakened. The steel price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the margin increase and position reduction before the holiday may affect the market fluctuations [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Oscillation; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The total transaction volume at major domestic ports was 238,000 tons, a 57.21% decrease from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 380,000 tons (5 transactions), a 45.32% decrease from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: On the supply side, the non - mainstream shipments remained high at high ore prices, and the global shipment volume decreased seasonally. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output remained stable, and the iron ore consumption increased slightly month - on - month. The port inventory of iron ore continued to increase, and as the steel mills' replenishment was nearing completion, the support from raw material prices weakened. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continued to deepen, and if the port liquidity factors were removed, the port supply would cause a great impact [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading: Oscillation with a bearish bias; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated within a narrow range. For coking coal, as the holiday approached, coal mines successively announced production suspension and holiday plans, and downstream procurement slowed down or stopped, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere. For coke, the spot price was relatively stable. After the first price increase was implemented, the profits of coke enterprises gradually recovered. Most steel mills had completed their winter stockpiling [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, the supply increased slightly recently. Most steel mills had completed their winter stockpiling. As the holiday approached, coking plants adjusted their production independently, and the price was expected to oscillate in the short term, following the cost fluctuations. For coking coal, the pig iron output of steel mills increased slightly, and the rigid demand for coking coal remained resilient. As the downstream replenishment was nearing completion, the speculative demand shrank. As the Spring Festival approached, coal mines successively stopped production for holidays, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance was suspended during the Spring Festival, so the supply pressure of coking coal was relieved. The coal price before the Spring Festival was expected to be stable with a narrow - range adjustment [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Oscillation; Coke: Oscillation; No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In terms of production areas, the number of coal mines on holiday in the main production areas continued to increase, and the operating mines were mainly large state - owned mines, with the supply continuously decreasing. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the main transactions were concentrated in long - term contracts, and the pre - holiday price was expected to change little. At ports, the market trading was dull, mainly with long - term contract coal. More traders were on holiday, and basically all had entered the holiday state. Affected by the shortage of imported coal and the rise in domestic prices, sellers were more willing to hold prices. In the import market, the RKAB in Indonesia was not fully implemented, the offers from Indonesian miners were scarce, and the market quotes and tender prices increased significantly [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, the supply decreased due to coal mine holidays, and downstream factories were also gradually on holiday, so both supply and demand were weak. Affected by the supply in the import market, the price of domestic trade coal continued to rise slightly. Recently, the full approval of RKAB by leading mines in Indonesia was expected, and the approval results of other mines were expected to be announced successively. The supply in Indonesia was expected to recover. Overall, the pre - holiday price increase was limited, and it was expected to run stably with a slight upward trend. After the holiday, as the coal mine supply recovered and the peak season was approaching the end, the coal price may be under pressure [7].

Core Viewpoint - The high dividend sector is currently more attractive than long-term bonds, with valuations still in a historically low range, driven by improving international liquidity, a strengthening RMB, and supportive domestic policy expectations [1] Group 1: High Dividend Sector - The high dividend sector has significant allocation value due to the current yield being more appealing than long-term bonds [1] - International liquidity conditions are continuously improving, which is favorable for the high dividend sector [1] - The RMB is strengthening, which benefits the funding structure and alleviates pressure on RMB exchange rate fluctuations, leading foreign capital to shift from "trading participation" to "medium to long-term allocation" in A-shares [1] Group 2: Domestic Policy Environment - The domestic policy environment provides mid-term support for the high dividend sector, with a continued loose monetary policy [1] - There is an expectation of increased policy measures on the supply side of the coal industry, which may lead to capacity reductions [1] - Weather changes affecting the output of clean energy sources like wind and solar may increase coal demand, presenting investment opportunities [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF (520900) and its offshore links (022719/022720) offer investors a convenient entry point to invest in Hong Kong dividend assets, balancing stable returns with long-term value [1]

Core Viewpoint - Central enterprises are playing a crucial role in supporting the high-quality development of Shanxi by leveraging their strengths in various sectors, including energy security, infrastructure, and technological innovation [1][2]. Group 1: Central Enterprises' Contributions - Central enterprises are actively collaborating with Shanxi to enhance energy security, upgrade industries, and improve transportation networks, contributing to a series of successful outcomes in the region [2]. - The Daqin Railway has achieved a normalized transportation capacity of 450 million tons per year, facilitating the supply of coal and ensuring national energy security [1][3]. Group 2: Strategic Cooperation and Development - Shanxi has positioned itself as a welcoming environment for central enterprises, encouraging investment and collaboration to drive traditional industry upgrades and foster new industries [3]. - The establishment of strategic partnerships between Shanxi and central enterprises has led to significant investments and project developments, enhancing the region's economic foundation [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Transportation - The Taiyuan Railway Bureau has completed the construction of the pre-fabricated box beams for the Xiongxin High-speed Railway, which will connect Shanxi with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, improving the national high-speed rail network [4]. - Central enterprises are enhancing the logistics capabilities in Shanxi, facilitating the movement of coal and manufactured goods, thereby supporting local industries [4]. Group 4: Energy Supply and Green Transition - Central enterprises are committed to ensuring energy supply while promoting a green transition in Shanxi, with significant investments in clean energy projects such as wind and solar power [6][7]. - The State Grid's construction of the Dazhou-Huailai-Tianjin South ultra-high voltage project will add 770 kilometers of clean energy transmission capacity, enhancing Shanxi's energy export capabilities [6]. Group 5: Technological Innovation and Modernization - Central enterprises are driving technological advancements in Shanxi, focusing on high-end manufacturing, digital technology, and ecological protection to support the development of a modern industrial system [8][10]. - Companies like CRRC Dalian are implementing digital transformation initiatives, achieving a system integration rate of 94% and enhancing their manufacturing capabilities [8]. Group 6: Digital Infrastructure and Rural Development - Shanxi Mobile is advancing digital rural construction by creating platforms for governance and smart agriculture, promoting e-commerce and logistics in rural areas [9]. - Central enterprises are investing in digital infrastructure, including 5G networks and computing centers, to support various sectors and enhance the region's digital economy [10].

晨报 煤焦 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 12 日 逻辑：昨日，煤焦期货价格延续弱势震荡运行，价格靠近近期震荡区 间下沿。近日季节性淡季，市场交投情绪降温，黑色金属板块整体走势偏 弱。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基上面来看，本周国内煤矿停产放假范围扩大，市场活跃度进一步 降温，焦钢企业补库基本完成，贸易商开始放假休市，市场成交氛围冷清， 竞拍价格继续下探。由于煤矿放假供应收缩，而焦钢采购需求低迷，市场 供需双弱，上游坑口库存变化不大。本周原煤、精煤日产 180.8 万吨、74.3 万吨，分别环比下降 11.8 万吨、1.2 万吨。进口端，上周蒙煤甘其毛都 口岸日通关量略有下降，根据中蒙两国双边协定，2026 年春节期间三大 口岸闭关，正月初一至初四（2 月 17 日至 20 日）闭关四天，2 月 15 日、 2 月 22 日周日正常闭关。需求端，钢厂生产相对平稳，日均铁水产量维 持 228 万吨左右。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 观点：当前煤焦供需矛盾一般，黑色金属市场整体情绪偏弱，价格偏 弱势运行，节前最后一周，注意持仓风险控制。 煤焦：交投情绪降温 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Coking Coal Daily Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Report Date: February 12, 2026 [1] 2. Price Information Spot Prices - **LiuLin Main Coking Coal**: The latest price is 1483.00, with a monthly increase of 57.00 and an annual increase of 13.47% [2] - **Raw Coal Port Delivery Price**: The latest is 1018.00, down 7.00 daily, 42.00 weekly, 52.00 monthly, but up 13.74% annually [2] - **ShaHeYi Meng 5**: The latest price is 1400.00, with a monthly rise of 60.00 and an annual increase of 3.70% [2] - **AnZe Main Coking Coal**: The latest price is 1570.00, down 30.00 weekly, 50.00 monthly, but up 12.14% annually [2] International Spot Prices - **Peak Downs**: The latest is 224.00, with a weekly increase of 2.00, a monthly decrease of 5.50, and an annual increase of 22.60 [2] - **Goonyella**: The latest price is 224.00, with a weekly increase of 2.00, a monthly decrease of 6.50, and an annual increase of 22.90 [2] Futures Prices - **Futures 05**: The latest price is 1126.00, down 1.00 daily, 56.00 weekly, 73.50 monthly, but up 3.64% annually [2] - **Futures 09**: The latest price is 1204.50, with a weekly decrease of 51.50, a monthly decrease of 73.00, and an annual increase of 3.21% [2] - **Futures 01**: The latest price is 1378.50, up 0.50 daily, down 43.50 weekly, up 300.00 monthly, and up 12.03% annually [2] 3. Inventory Information - **Coal Mine Inventory**: The latest is 261.24, down 3.41 weekly, 11.13 monthly, and 32.95% annually [2] - **Port Inventory**: The latest is 272.76, down 13.62 weekly, 27.04 monthly, and 39.56% annually [2] - **Steel Mill Coking Coal Inventory**: The latest is 824.20, up 9.84 weekly, 26.47 monthly, and 2.42% annually [2] - **Coking Plant Coking Coal Inventory**: The latest is 1302.39, up 67.60 weekly, 230.71 monthly, and 34.55% annually [2] 4. Other Information - **Coking Capacity Utilization**: The latest is 72.20, up 0.34 weekly, down 0.49 monthly, and 1.14% annually [2] - **Coking Plant Coke Inventory**: The latest is 86.33, up 0.42 weekly, 0.66 monthly, but down 0.58% annually [2] Basis and Spread - **05 Basis**: The latest is 0.21, up 1.00 daily, 52.55 weekly, 48.21 monthly, and 71.99% annually [2] - **09 Basis**: The latest is -78.29, with a weekly increase of 48.05, a monthly increase of 47.71, and an annual decrease of 0.49 [2] - **01 Basis**: The latest is -252.29, down 0.50 daily, up 40.05 weekly, down 325.29 monthly, and up 0.17% annually [2] - **5 - 9 Spread**: The latest is -78.50, down 1.00 daily, 4.50 weekly, 0.50 monthly, and 0.02% annually [2] - **9 - 1 Spread**: The latest is -174.00, down 0.50 daily, 8.00 weekly, 373.00 monthly, and up 1.74% annually [2] - **1 - 5 Spread**: The latest is 252.50, up 1.50 daily, 12.50 weekly, 373.50 monthly, and 0.75% annually [2]

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 705.0 2.0 5.0 -1.0 -45.0 25省终端可用天数 22.6 0.3 2.7 1.7 5.0 秦皇岛5000 623.0 4.0 8.0 4.0 -42.0 25省终端供煤 579.1 -7.4 -29.5 -61.0 -43.8 广州港5500 795.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -50.0 北方港库存 2276.0 -14.0 8.0 -353.0 -239.9 鄂尔多斯5500 500.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -10.0 北方锚地船舶 78.0 -4.0 -9.0 -38.0 32.0 大同5500 555.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -40.0 北方港调入量 147.4 -3.2 9.4 14.3 -1.2 榆林6000 670.0 0.0 0.0 -20.0 -7.0 北方港吞吐量 163.6 19.1 6.7 29.4 24.3 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 CBCFI海运指数 522.0 6.1 -16.1 -126.3 41.2 25省终端日耗 5 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 12 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：成交下降波动收窄 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：节前情绪延续偏暖 4 | | 蛋白粕：盘面减仓力度增加 | 价格大幅上涨 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：美糖跌破下方支撑 | 预计国内价格偏弱 6 | | 油脂板块：假期临近震荡回落，整体维持宽幅震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面高位震荡 9 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 现货整体支撑 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 11 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 12 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 13 | | 钢材：需求延续下滑，钢价震荡承压 14 | | --- | | 双焦：春节临近煤矿陆续放假，年后需关注国内外煤炭市场变化 14 | | 铁矿：基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 15 | | 铁合金：长假临近，多单逢高止盈 16 | | 金银： 非农数据现分歧 市场博弈转 ...