锰硅硅铁产业日报 2026/3/11 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖 原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,116.00 | +28.00↑ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,884.00 | +8.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 605,232.00 | +1109.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 407,629.00 | -2902.00↓ | | | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -75,1 ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/3/11 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,269 | +13↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1265100 | -4576↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 2,791 | +11407↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -9 | +3↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry has prominent "involution" issues, and capacity governance is the primary task to optimize the industrial environment [2]. - The weekly output of rebar has increased, terminal demand has risen simultaneously, but inventory is also increasing, and the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose [2]. - The fundamentals of rebar have changed little, and the market's focus is on the development of the US - Iran situation. The stabilization of oil prices supports commodities [2]. - For RB2605 contract, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis, and the green bar is shrinking. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,115.00 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. - RB main contract position: 1,722,422 lots, down 8,941 lots [2]. - RB contract top 20 net position: - 8,236 lots, down 5,914 lots [2]. - RB5 - 10 contract spread: - 29 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 40,503 tons, up 16,352 tons [2]. - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 154 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,354 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,150.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - RB main contract basis: 155.00 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 10.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 60.8% PB iron ore fines: 775.00 yuan/wet ton, up 5.00 yuan [2]. - Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke (FOB price): 1,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax - free): 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,940.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan [2]. - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 17,122.72 million tons, up 26.41 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 63.03 million tons, up 0.44 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 671.53 million tons, down 3.53 million tons [2]. - Tangshan billet inventory: 232.65 million tons, up 13.19 million tons [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 77.69%, down 2.55 percentage points [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 85.30%, down 2.18 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill rebar output: 173.31 million tons, up 8.21 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 37.99%, up 1.80 percentage points [2]. - Sample steel mill rebar inventory: 237.93 million tons, up 5.09 million tons [2]. - 35 - city rebar social inventory: 637.75 million tons, up 69.99 million tons [2]. - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 35.42%, up 23.96 percentage points [2]. - Domestic crude steel output (monthly): 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2]. - Chinese rebar monthly output: 1,375 million tons, up 19 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume (monthly): 1,078.00 million tons, up 331.11 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: - 3.80%, down 1.20 percentage points [2]. - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 17.20%, down 1.30 percentage points [2]. - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment: - 2.20%, down 1.10 percentage points [2]. - Cumulative value of housing construction area: 659,890 million square meters, down 3,824 million square meters [2]. - Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 58,770 million square meters, down 5,313 million square meters [2]. - Commodity housing unsold area: 40,236.00 million square meters, down 875.00 million square meters [2]. - According to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 14 key real estate enterprises from January to February 2026 were 118.666 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23.7%; the total sales in February were 50.627 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 35.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.6% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Due to the transportation obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait have jointly cut production by about 6.7 million barrels per day, reducing the global oil supply by about 6% [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - Thursday's weekly rebar output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: After the Two Sessions, real - estate policies are mainly stable with limited stimulus. Market expectations have returned to fundamentals. Steel exports face pressure, hot - rolled coil inventory is high, and the pressure from warehouse receipts is large. Insufficient inventory reduction may lead to price declines, and the rebound height is limited [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Against the backdrop of war concerns and domestic policy support, tightened spot liquidity has pushed prices higher, but the fundamentals show a seasonal weakening in both supply and demand. Supply pressure persists, and the expectation of steel mill production cuts is rising under stagflation risks, leading to inventory accumulation. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the contraction in iron ore demand from Gulf countries may far exceed the reduction in Iranian supply. Coupled with only a seasonal rebound in shipping costs, the upside space is limited [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Domestic coal mines are in the resumption stage, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has recovered rapidly, resulting in large supply pressure. The short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal has intensified. The cost of coking coal for coke has loosened, and coking profits have expanded slightly. The rise in chemical product prices has improved comprehensive profits, and coke enterprise operations are expected to increase. From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The late Spring Festival has led to a slow resumption of work, and the uncertainty of the Middle East route has suppressed steel exports. The overall downward pressure on the black series is large, and the bottom of coking coal and coke has support but limited elasticity [31]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel terminal demand and high plate inventory pressure may limit the upward space for ferroalloys [50]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - side maintenance may gradually increase, which will affect production in stages. In terms of supply and demand, the rigid demand is currently stable but weak. There may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side, which may affect soda ash production in stages. The inventory performance is better than expected. If the futures price rises, there is some restocking space for middle - stream players such as those involved in futures - cash arbitrage, but due to limited demand elasticity, the price increase space is expected to be limited. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In the long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, and we need to wait for further accumulation of industrial contradictions. In addition to the fundamentals, the overall valuation of soda ash and glass is not high, and there may be an impact from other sectors [64]. - **Glass**: Currently, the glass production and sales are temporarily weak, and the market is still in the recovery stage. The daily melting volume of float glass has dropped to around 148,000 tons, but the high inventory in the middle - stream has always been a risk concern in the market. Once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be very large, and the downstream may not be able to bear it. Secondly, there are continuous news about ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines in Shahe waiting to be ignited. The expectation of supply recovery and high middle - stream inventory limit the upside of glass, and the demand needs to be verified. In addition to the fundamentals, macro and sentiment factors also need to be considered, and there may be an impact [87]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3170, 3115, and 3144 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3292, 3269, and 3278 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the rebar summary price in China was 3317 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton [9][11]. - **Price Spreads**: The 01 - 05 month spread of rebar was 55 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was 23 yuan/ton on March 11, 2026 [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 740.5, 787.5, and 758.5 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 772 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: As of March 6, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 227.59 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 311.08 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 17117.86 tons [26]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the 09 - 01 month spread of coking coal was - 214 yuan/ton, and that of coke was - 94 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1450 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton [38]. - **Profits**: The on - site coking profit was - 28 yuan/ton on March 11, 2026 [35]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On March 10, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 4 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron 01 - 05 month spread was 58 yuan/ton [51]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On March 11, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 84 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese 01 - 05 month spread was 106 yuan/ton [52]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1255, 1322, and 1357 yuan/ton respectively [65]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1280 yuan/ton [65]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1112, 1225, and 1283 yuan/ton respectively [88]. - **Production and Sales**: On March 6, 2026, the production - sales ratio in Shahe was 131, in Hubei was 100, in East China was 92, and in South China was 100 [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global market risk preference has risen due to the signal of easing in the Middle East situation, but there are still uncertainties in the short - term, and most markets are expected to be volatile [2]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, and different commodities have different trends and influencing factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The short - term is expected to be mainly volatile due to factors such as geopolitical risks and the need to wait for more positive policy signals after the Two Sessions [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the short - term export and import data are good, it is difficult to change the overall economic judgment. The value of treasury bonds has risen after the decline, and the negative impact from the Middle East has not completely dissipated [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term upward basis still exists, but in the short - term, the risk of postponed interest - rate cut expectations needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and trade policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and US CPI, PCE data [3][4]. - **Copper**: The price increase is mainly driven by short - covering. The global macro - environment is complex, and both supply and demand are affected by multiple factors [4]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is dominated by the war situation and fluctuates sharply [5]. - **Alumina**: The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the release of new production capacity in March [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai Aluminum, and there is strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply may be affected by the Iran situation and energy costs, and the demand side has inventory pressure. The short - term metal price may be suppressed [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply of Indonesian wet - process production lines is volatile, and stainless steel is supported by the peak - season expectation [8]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is starting to resume work. The high inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term demand is affected by the Middle East situation, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and the marginal optimization of the supply - demand structure [9]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week and the implementation of secondary lead delivery [10][11]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is mainly stable, and the steel export faces pressure. The high inventory of hot - rolled coils may lead to price decline [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is relatively strong due to the tight liquidity of spot goods, but the fundamental supply - demand is seasonally weak. The upside space is limited [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure is large, and the overall black - metal series has downward pressure, but there is support at the bottom [13]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is gradually strengthening, but the upward space may be limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory of plates [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on the Middle East situation. The development of the US - Iran situation and the subsequent navigation of the Strait of Hormuz are crucial [15]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel - oil market remains strong due to supply tightening, increased ship demand, and other factors [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and the short - term geopolitical disturbance is the core factor [16]. - **LPG**: The price follows the crude oil, and the Middle East situation needs to be continuously tracked [16]. - **Plastics**: The short - term supply pressure is limited, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively good [17]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war may break the current weak balance of domestic urea [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply may be affected by maintenance, and the inventory performance is better than expected. The price space is limited [18]. - **Glass**: The production and sales are currently weak, and the high inventory in the middle reaches restricts the price increase [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, showing a weak - oscillating trend [20]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The current market is mainly affected by the weak post - Spring Festival demand, and the price has limited upward and downward space [21]. - **Oilseeds**: The price is supported by factors such as planting - cost increase, export improvement, and biodiesel boost. The domestic market will follow the performance of US soybeans in the short - term [21]. - **Oils**: The market is expected to be range - bound, and attention can be paid to the weakening of the price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil [22]. - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exerts pressure on the upside [23]. - **Eggs**: The short - term demand improvement supports the price to be strong in oscillation, but the upside space is limited [24]. - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on the demand side. The price may remain in a low - level oscillation due to the loose domestic supply - demand [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Thread Steel**: Demand is still weak year-on-year, molten iron production is rising month-on-month and higher than the same period in previous years, overall steel supply and demand are relatively loose, and weak reality exerts pressure. Domestic policy expectations are not strong, but the conflict between the US and Iran brings significant disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory levels are high, supply and demand changes follow seasonal patterns, and the basis fluctuates narrowly around par. The weak reality of the steel market will continue to suppress the market in the medium term, and there is some pressure on supply and demand, but the conflict between the US and Iran brings disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production has decreased significantly and is expected to rebound. Port inventories have accumulated, steel mills are consuming inventory and purchasing on demand, supply has decreased this period, and the fundamentals have improved. The negotiation on iron ore between China and Australia has escalated, which has pushed up ore prices in the short term. The sharp decline in the crude oil sector may put emotional pressure on the market, so operate with caution [1][8][9]. - **Coke**: Except for some coking enterprises in Hebei that have limited production, the operation in other regions has remained stable. During the Two Sessions, some steel mills' blast furnaces limited production, molten iron production decreased significantly in the short term, steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts, and the willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, so operate with caution [1][12][13]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production intensively, and the average daily output of mines has continued to increase month-on-month. In terms of demand, molten iron production has decreased significantly month-on-month, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient. Overall, supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, so operate with caution [1][16][17]. - **Silicomanganese**: The operating rate in the production area remains low, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. The quotes of some mainstream manganese mines in April continue to rise, providing strong support for the cost side. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to some extent [1][19][20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply in the production area has decreased month-on-month, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. A new round of steel tenders has been launched one after another, and attention should be paid to the quotes of mainstream steel mills. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to some extent [1][19][20]. - **Glass**: The real estate statements during the Two Sessions continue the previous policy orientation, production enterprises continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend, the current fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, the daily melting volume is 148,500 tons, and in the face of weak demand, further reduction in supply is still needed to digest high inventory. Recent fluctuations in crude oil prices have intensified, and the market may fluctuate [1][23][24]. - **Soda Ash**: Factory inventory has reached a record high, and the upstream operating rate remains at a neutral level of 87% compared to the same period. Real estate demand continues to be weak, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 236,000 tons, and the demand for heavy soda ash lacks support. The rise in energy prices has led to an overall increase in costs, and there may be short-term fluctuations [1][27][28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Thread Steel - **Price Information**: The latest prices of thread steel futures contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3,174, 3,119, and 3,147 respectively, with price increases of 33, 31, and 32 respectively. The latest prices of spot thread steel in different regions such as Tangshan, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are 3,100, 3,220, and 3,290 respectively, with price increases of 40, 30, and 40 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of thread steel 01 in Shanghai is 46, with a decrease of 3; the latest basis of thread steel 05 in Shanghai is 101, with a decrease of 1; the latest basis of thread steel 10 in Shanghai is 73, with a decrease of 2. The latest spreads of RB 10 - 01, RB 01 - 05, and RB 05 - 10 are -27, 55, and -28 respectively, with changes of -1, 2, and -1 respectively [2]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price Information**: The latest prices of hot rolled coil futures contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3,291, 3,270, and 3,282 respectively, with price increases of 28, 40, and 38 respectively. The latest prices of spot hot rolled coil in different regions such as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are 3,180, 3,260, and 3,290 respectively, with price increases of 40, 30, and 50 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of hot rolled coil 01 in Shanghai is -31, with an increase of 2; the latest basis of hot rolled coil 05 in Shanghai is -10, with a decrease of 10; the latest basis of hot rolled coil 10 in Shanghai is -22, with a decrease of 8. The latest spreads of HC 10 - 01, HC 01 - 05, and HC 05 - 10 are -9, 21, and -12 respectively, with changes of 10, -12, and 2 respectively [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The latest prices of iron ore futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 741, 785, and 758 respectively, with price increases of 12, 13, and 12 respectively. The latest prices of PB powder, Yangdi powder, and BRBF powder are 773, 751, and 798 respectively, with price increases of 9, 11, and 0 respectively [6]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of PB powder for 01 is 83, with a decrease of 2; the latest basis of PB powder for 05 is 40, with a decrease of 3; the latest basis of PB powder for 09 is 66, with a decrease of 2. The latest spreads of i 01 - 05, i 05 - 09, and i 09 - 01 are -44, 27, and 17 respectively, with changes of -13, 1, and 12 respectively [6]. Coke - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coke futures contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1,906.0, 1,740.0, and 1,803.5 respectively, with price increases of 50.5, 44.5, and 41.5 respectively. The latest prices of spot coke in different regions such as Lvliang, Rizhao, and Handan are 1,230, 1,470, and 1,370 respectively, with no price changes [11]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises is 74.0%, a decrease of 0.4%; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 227.6 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons; the daily average coke output of sample coking plants is 63.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons; the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills is 46.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants is 110.3 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 671.3 tons, a decrease of 3.9 tons; the inventory available days are 12.5 days, an increase of 0.1 day; the port coke inventory is 203.1 tons, an increase of 6.0 tons; the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises is 17.0 yuan, an increase of 24.0 yuan [11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coking coal futures contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1,468.0, 1,168.0, and 1,251.5 respectively, with price increases of 42.0, 45.0, and 35.0 respectively. The latest prices of spot coking coal in different regions such as Lvliang, Gujiao, and Meng 5 are 1,310, 1,230, and 1,175 respectively, with no price changes [15]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of sample coal washing plants is 26.6%, an increase of 3.8%; the daily average clean coal output of sample coal washing plants is 19.9 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons; the daily average coke output of sample coking plants is 50.4 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons; the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills is 47.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons; the coking coal inventory of sample coking plants is 796.2 tons, a decrease of 33.3 tons; the inventory available days are 11.9 days, a decrease of 0.4 days; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 775.6 tons, a decrease of 16.8 tons; the inventory available days are 12.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days; the total port coking coal inventory is 267.7 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons [15]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: The latest prices of ferrosilicon futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 5,960, 5,868, and 5,940 respectively, with price increases of 58, 0, and 22 respectively. The latest prices of silicomanganese futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 6,248, 6,132, and 6,184 respectively, with price increases of 26, 2, and 6 respectively. The latest prices of spot ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions have different price changes [18]. - **Weekly Data**: The operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises is 35.7%, an increase of 0.08%; the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises is 26.55%, a decrease of 1.77%; the output of 187 silicomanganese enterprises is 195,860 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons; the inventory of 63 silicomanganese enterprises is 387,300 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons; the output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises is 96,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons; the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises is 66,280 tons, a decrease of 4,120 tons [18]. Glass - **Futures Market**: The latest closing prices of FG01, FG05 (main contract), and FG09 are 1,280, 1,104, and 1,211 respectively, with price increases of 25, 17, and 17 respectively. The main contract's trading volume is 368, an increase of 213.1; the main contract's open interest is 117, a decrease of 9.1 [22]. - **Spot Market and Industry Chain**: The latest prices of glass in different regions such as Hubei, China, and East China are 1,090, 1,137, and 1,230 respectively, with different price changes. The daily melting volume is 146,900 tons, a decrease of 0.16 tons; the inventory is 7,601 ten - thousand weight boxes, an increase of 2,066 ten - thousand weight boxes [22]. Soda Ash - **Futures Market**: The latest closing prices of SA01, SA05 (main contract), and SA09 are 1,358, 1,276, and 1,330 respectively, with price increases of 26, 34, and 31 respectively. The main contract's trading volume is 373, an increase of 233.8; the main contract's open interest is 109, a decrease of 5.9 [26]. - **Spot Market and Industry Chain**: The latest prices of soda ash in different regions such as Shahe, East China, and Central China are 1,260, 1,230, and 1,230 respectively, with different price changes. The operating rate is 0.0%, a decrease of 86.82%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 89,000 tons, a decrease of 146,925 tons; the enterprise inventory is 189.4 tons, an increase of 30.64 tons [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: After the sentiment cools, it returns to a volatile state. Unilateral trading returns to a wait - and - see approach, and attention is focused on the entry opportunities for hot - rolled coil positive spreads and the fluctuation range of the coil - to - rebar spread [2][8] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Due to geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is extreme. Although prices strengthen in the short term, the upward space is limited, and the strategy is to go short - term long on dips [3][5][8] - Coking Coal and Coke: The market is mainly concerned about geopolitical changes. Unilateral trading is temporarily on hold, and consideration is given to gradually establishing positive spreads in the spot - futures market [6][8] - Iron Ore: The short - term recommendation is not to short black varieties. It's not advisable to chase short at low levels, and it's recommended to wait for the pressure level to short. In the medium - to - long - term, there is obvious upward pressure [7] Summary by Category Steel - On March 10, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2610 and HC2610 were 3132.00 yuan/ton and 3268.00 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of 0.41% and 0.27%. The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2605 and HC2605 were 3104.00 yuan/ton and 3256.00 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of 0.42% and 0.18% [1] - The black sector currently has weak supply and demand. Production is affected around important meetings, and the inventory level is neutral. However, there are differences among varieties. In the future, it may enter a stage of strong supply and demand [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Geopolitical conflicts have led to extreme market sentiment and increased volatility of commodities. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both weak, with high inventory levels. Although prices strengthen in the short term, the upward space is limited [3][5] Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, after the market sentiment warmed up on Monday, the trading volume declined slightly on Tuesday. On the futures side, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market trend. After the so - called "end of the war" was declared, the prices of coal and coke fell back to the pre - rise level. The market is mainly concerned about changes in the Iranian situation [6] Iron Ore - There are still many rumors in the market, and oil price fluctuations have intensified. In the short term, it's not recommended to short black varieties, especially coal. Although iron ore rebounded last week, the marginal impact on supply is small. There is a certain restocking expectation, but port inventory is the root cause of pressure. It's recommended to wait for the pressure level to short [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its "Overweight" stance on the Chinese stock market [11] Core Viewpoints - A-shares will continue to outperform H-shares until global geopolitical and AI disruption concerns subside due to their higher Sharpe ratio and lower global market beta [11] - China is less sensitive to oil price shocks than other emerging Asian market peers, but high oil prices may lead to a 20% decline in the fair value of the Chinese stock market [11] - The "Two Sessions" policy signals are in line with market expectations, and the fiscal policy will remain expansionary this year [12] - AI is the most concerned investment theme, and China's AI has potential economic benefits [13] - Driven by AI, "going global", and "anti-involution", corporate profit growth may accelerate to about 14% in 2026 [14] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Data - In the first two months of 2026, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%; the trade surplus was 1.50349 trillion yuan [2] - The 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped 0.38BP to 1.803%, and DR007 dropped 0.73BP to 1.440% [4] - The US dollar index closed at 98.94, up 0.23% slightly, and the offshore US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.8813, down 0.09% [5] A-share Market - On March 10, the A-share market showed a general upward trend. The ChiNext Index led the gains with a rise of 3.04%, and small and medium-cap indexes such as CSI 2000 and STAR 50 were active. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.28%. The market turnover was 2.42 trillion yuan [3] - The communication and electronics sectors were strong, with increases of 4.32% and 3.41% respectively. The machinery and equipment, building materials, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors also had high increases. The energy and raw material sectors had large declines, with the petroleum and petrochemical sector dropping 5.14% and the coal sector dropping 3.11% [3] - The A-share total market value was 115.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.73 trillion yuan compared with the beginning of the year. The cumulative turnover this year was 111.56 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 272.0893 billion yuan [20] Global Market - Asia-Pacific and European markets generally rose. The South Korean Composite Index rose 5.35%, the Nikkei 225 Index rose 2.88%, and the German DAX and French CAC40 Indexes both rose more than 1.7%. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.17%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.96%. The US stock market was weak, with the Nasdaq Index rising slightly by 0.01%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Index and S&P 500 Index falling 0.07% and 0.21% respectively [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for rebar and hot-rolled coil are both wide-range fluctuations [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals, macro and industry news, and trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil [1][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For RB2605, the closing price was 3,104 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.42%); trading volume was 795,516 lots, and positions decreased by 9,469 lots. For HC2605, the closing price was 3,256 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.18%); trading volume was 414,803 lots, and positions decreased by 22,947 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai and Hangzhou remained stable or decreased slightly, while hot-rolled coil prices in major cities decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged at 2,960 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2605 increased by 15 yuan/ton to 116 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 4 yuan/ton to -6 yuan/ton. The spreads between different contracts remained relatively stable [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - In February 2026, the national consumer price index increased by 1.3% year-on-year, and the producer price index decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points [1] - According to the weekly data from Steel Union on March 5th, rebar production increased by 8.21 tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 8.5 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 0.47 tons. Rebar inventory increased by 75.08 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory increased by 19.54 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 103.89 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 17.69 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 9.74 tons, and the total apparent demand increased by 30.85 tons [1][3] - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on February 27th to discuss the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan and the government work report, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive and effective macro policies [3] - Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice on February 25th to further optimize and adjust real estate policies, including reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident fund loan policies, and improving personal housing property tax policies [3] - In mid-February 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 18.12 million tons, a 19.9% increase from the previous ten-day period, a 28.2% increase from the beginning of the year, a 12.3% increase from the same period last month, an 8.3% increase from the same period last year, and a 4.5% decrease from the same period the year before last [3] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]

Macroeconomic Insights - February CPI increased by 1.3% year-on-year and 1.0% month-on-month, indicating steady inflation recovery[4] - February PPI decreased by 0.9% year-on-year but increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with upstream mining sector showing recovery[6] Inflation Dynamics - Core CPI contributed +1.08%, driven by higher gold prices, while food prices contributed +0.48%[5] - Input inflation is characterized by a "oil-gold resonance," influenced by geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices[6] Market Performance - MSCI Global index fell by 3.3%, with MSCI Emerging markets down by 5.6%[9] - Last week, the U.S. Treasury long-term rates rose, while natural gas and crude oil prices surged[9] Earnings Expectations - Hong Kong stock earnings expectations were revised down, with Hang Seng Index 2026 EPS forecast adjusted from +9.7% to +9.6%[10] - U.S. and European stock earnings expectations remained stable, with S&P 500 EPS forecast at +12.9%[10] Investment Recommendations - Strong recommendation to overweight crude oil due to geopolitical factors and inflation expectations[13] - Suggestion to focus on A-shares and H-shares, supported by stable macro policies and capital market reforms[13] Sectoral Insights - The energy sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions, reinforcing inflation expectations[13] - The construction and engineering sectors are highlighted for investment opportunities due to new infrastructure initiatives[28] Risks and Considerations - Input inflation poses a risk of internal "stagflation" amid geopolitical tensions[7] - Potential volatility in oil prices and policy uncertainties could impact market stability[21]