Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the rise in gold prices will slow down next year due to reduced purchases by central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but expectations of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar will support upward momentum, with gold prices expected to reach $4,800 per ounce by Q4 next year [1] Group 1: Gold Market - The rise in gold prices is expected to slow down as central banks and ETFs reduce their purchases [1] - Factors supporting gold prices include anticipated interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and strong retail demand from China [1] - Gold prices are projected to reach $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Silver Market - This year is expected to be a peak period for silver shortages, with silver price trends likely lagging behind gold next year [1] - Investment demand is anticipated to continue driving silver prices upward [1] Group 3: Other Precious Metals - Platinum prices are expected to be $1,775 per ounce next year [1] - Palladium prices are projected to be $1,325 per ounce next year [1]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 过去，当美股上市公司宣布裁员时，股价通常会上涨。但高盛表示，这种情况已不复存在。 在过去，如果公司宣布裁员是出于提高生产力或节省成本的考量，股价通常会做出非常积极的反应。然 而现在，企业在发布此类公告后，其股价表现反而落后大盘2%。 看来，股票市场已经停止奖励那些进行裁员的公司。即便公司给出的理由听上去很正面，市场依然会惩 罚其股价。 高盛分析师Elsie Peng认为，这是因为投资者对公司给出的裁员理由愈发持怀疑态度。在周一发布的一 份报告中，Peng分析了公告后的股价走势，并指出：投资者可能担心所谓的"生产力提升"其实只是烟雾 弹，用来掩盖运营表现中的负面信号，例如利息支出上升或盈利能力下降。 股市对近期的裁员公告 反应负面 高盛的报告显示，无论给出何种解释，近期宣布裁员的公司与同行业可比公司相比，今年的资本支出、 债务和利息支出的增长都更高，而利润增长则更低。 Peng解释道，2025年劳动力市场的疲软主要体现为招聘处于低位。尽管传统的裁员指标——如初请失业 金人数或职位空缺和JOLTS数据中的裁员率——仍然保持在 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the survey conducted among Goldman Sachs interns this year is to compare their perspectives on life planning, investment, and artificial intelligence with previous years, marking the 10th anniversary of the survey [1] - Over 2,100 interns participated in the survey, providing insights into their views and behaviors [1] Group 2 - 76% of respondents from business and finance backgrounds indicated their primary interests [4] - 63% of interns reported having made investments, while 37% have not invested at all, with their top two investment choices remaining unchanged since 2021 [12] - The majority of interns (97%) use AI tools in their personal lives, with 66% believing that emotional intelligence is more important than IQ for success [18][20] Group 3 - 84% of interns expect to be paired with a mentor when starting their new jobs, and 99% believe that interpersonal relationships are best built face-to-face [21][25] - When it comes to learning new knowledge at work, 33% prefer hands-on experience, while 27% favor discussions with others [26] - 62% of interns are interested in working abroad, whether for short-term tasks or long-term assignments [26] Group 4 - In terms of future aspirations, 96% plan to marry, 97% aim to buy a house, and 76% wish to raise pets by 2024 [28] - 34% of interns plan to retire between the ages of 55-65, while 30% wish to work as long as possible [30] - The most significant global influences anticipated in the next decade include geopolitical relations (68%), climate change (34%), and artificial intelligence (29%) [31]

12月15日（周一），高盛（Goldman Sachs）将2026年铜价预估从此前的每吨10,650美元上调至每吨 11,400美元，理由是精炼铜关税在2026年上半年实施的可能性降低，对可负担性的担忧成为当务之急。 与此同时，由于COMEX期铜上涨，本已创下历史新高的COMEX铜库存仍在持续增加。美国将精炼铜 排除在8月份生效的50%进口关税之外，但仍在对其进行审查。 芝商所发布的数据显示，12月12日COMEX铜库存达到450,618短吨，创历史新高水平。 高盛表示，特朗普政府有55%的可能性在2026年上半年宣布对铜进口征收15%的关税，并计划于2027年 实施，并可能在2028年提高到30%。 该投资银行表示，未来关税的前景可能会使美国铜价高于LME铜，并推升库存，这将收紧美国以外市 场的供应，而美国现在是全球铜价的关键驱动力。 高盛表示："对2027年铜价的预估维持在每吨10,750美元不变，我们预测一旦关税就位和美国以外市场 恢复平衡，那么LME铜价将回落。" 该行还将2026年全球市场供应过剩规模的预测从16万吨上调至30万吨。 （文华综合） 伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜周一上涨140.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic outlook for China's GDP growth, driven by strong export performance and anticipated policy easing measures from the government and central bank [1][3][5]. Economic Data Summary - In November, China's industrial value-added increased by 6% year-on-year, service production index rose by 5.6%, retail sales grew by 4%, and total goods import and export increased by 3.6%, with exports specifically growing by 6.2% [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that China's GDP growth target of 5% for the year is nearly assured, attributing this to the robust export growth [3]. Export Growth and Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for China's export growth to 5%-6% annually over the next few years, citing an expanding global market share [3]. - Deutsche Bank also anticipates a 6% growth in exports by 2026, contributing 0.5 percentage points to overall GDP growth, supported by improved market shares in non-U.S. markets [4]. Real Estate Market Impact - The negative impact of the real estate market on GDP growth is expected to diminish, with projected annual drag reducing from 2 percentage points to approximately 1.5 percentage points in the coming years [3]. Policy Easing Expectations - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined strategies to boost domestic demand through increased household income and service consumption, alongside structural reforms [6]. - Deutsche Bank expects a continuation of active fiscal policies and a stable monetary policy environment, with a focus on maintaining price stability [6][7]. Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a divergence in expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs and UBS predicting a 20 basis point cut, while Deutsche Bank sees limited potential for further rate reductions [7]. - The consensus among various banks is that the fiscal deficit rate will remain around 4% of GDP, with some variations in predictions regarding monetary policy actions [7]. Currency Outlook - The article highlights a strong current account surplus of $600 billion, which is 2.8% of GDP, potentially accelerating the internationalization of the Renminbi [9]. - Predictions indicate that the Renminbi may appreciate against the U.S. dollar, with expectations of reaching 6.7 by the end of 2026 and further to 6.5 by the end of 2027 [10].

股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 邢自强指，AI需要四大支柱去支撑，中国在AI人才、基础设施及数据方面均具优势。有人才才能改进 演算法，独辟蹊径，节省效率，而全球AI相关的一半人才是中国培养的；基础设施就是算力中心，需 要有大量的电网、发电站及储能设备，连同冷却、基本维护等设施，这些设施在中国均较便宜。要训练 大模型变成最好的AI，便需要大量数据，中国老百姓一直使用的微信、制造业产业链上的第一手资 料，均为训练AI提供大量数据，故此这方面中国亦具有优势。 12月16日，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强认为，中美对AI的观点与发展路径截然不同，中国长 远能否超越美国拭目以待，但凭借可靠的人才、基础设施及数据，可弥补GPU的不足。 邢自强表示，美国的AI企业均是超大规模服务商(Hyperscaler)，大家都拼命的砸钱、拼算力，就是要拼 谁能先通过这些军备竞赛，能先达到AGI(通用人工智能)，所以美国走的是一个重量化。中国的AI模型 普遍都属开源性质，一开始想到的是AI本身未必要那么赚钱，而是要让这些AI工具尽快落地市场化， 故中国走的是一个轻量化、比较便宜，但是又可以大量铺开的AI应 ...

12月15日（周一），高盛（Goldman Sachs）周一将2026年铜价预估从此前的每吨10,650美元上调至每 吨11,400美元，理由是精炼铜关税在2026年上半年实施的可能性降低，因为对可负担性的担忧成为当务 之急。 高盛表示，他们认为铜价很容易受到与人工智能相关的价格调整影响。 （文华综合） 高盛表示："对2027年铜价的额预估维持在每吨10,750美元不变，我们预测一旦关税就位和美国以外市 场恢复平衡，那么LME铜价将回落。" ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - New York gold futures surpassed $4,340 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.09% [1][9] - Spot gold also rose, breaking through $4,310 per ounce, with a daily gain of 0.10% [2][10] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - International crude oil prices faced downward pressure, with WTI crude futures closing down 1.08% at $56.82 per barrel, and Brent crude futures down 0.92% at $60.56 per barrel [3][11] - During the trading session, WTI crude briefly exceeded $57 per barrel but ultimately fell 0.27% [4][12] - Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks further pressured oil prices, with U.S. crude futures dropping by $1 during the day [5][13] Group 3: Base Metals Futures - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 copper price forecast from $10,650 per ton to $11,400 per ton, maintaining the 2027 forecast at $10,750 per ton, noting that copper prices are susceptible to pullbacks related to artificial intelligence [6][14] - Bank of America anticipates a supply shortage for aluminum next year, with prices expected to exceed $3,000 per ton [7][15] Group 4: Macro and Market Impact - U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.09%, Nasdaq down 0.59%, and S&P 500 down 0.16%; the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 2.17%, with several Chinese concept stocks, including Furlong Group and Neng Chain Smart Electric, dropping over 6% [8][16] - In terms of Federal Reserve policy, Williams expressed support for last week's rate cut decision but indicated that January's actions would require further observation; meanwhile, Fed chair candidate Hassett faces internal opposition due to close ties with Trump [8][16] - Geopolitically, positive developments in the U.S.-Ukraine negotiations were reported, with both sides nearing consensus on security guarantees, and Trump stated that a conflict resolution agreement is closer than ever [8][16]

Economic Growth Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP growth target of 5% for the year is almost certain to be achieved, supported by strong economic indicators [1][3] - Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, predicting a steady export growth of 5%-6% through 2026, with a diminishing negative impact from the real estate sector on GDP growth [2][3] Export Performance - In the first eleven months, the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.6%, with exports growing by 6.2%, exceeding expectations [3] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the growth in China's export volume will continue to rise by 5%-6% annually in the coming years, driven by an expanding global market share [3] Real Estate Sector Impact - The real estate market, while still weak, is expected to have a reduced direct negative impact on GDP growth, with the drag decreasing by approximately 0.5 percentage points annually in the coming years [3][4] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to reduce excess inventory in the real estate sector, which is seen as a necessary step for economic recovery [4][6] Policy Measures - The central economic work conference outlined key strategies for economic work in the coming year, focusing on increasing household income and promoting service consumption to boost domestic demand [6] - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the fiscal deficit rate will remain around 8.5% of GDP in 2026, with special government bond issuance increasing to 1.5 trillion yuan [6][7] Monetary Policy Expectations - There is a consensus among various investment banks that the fiscal deficit rate will stabilize around 4% of GDP, although opinions differ on the likelihood and extent of interest rate cuts [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 20 basis point interest rate cut, while UBS expects a combination of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth [7] Currency Outlook - The strong export performance and a current account surplus of $600 billion (2.8% of GDP) are expected to accelerate the internationalization of the renminbi [8] - Deutsche Bank projects that the renminbi will appreciate against the US dollar, reaching 6.7 by the end of 2026 and further strengthening to 6.5 by the end of 2027 [8]

摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson表示，本周美国就业数据的温和疲软可能会助长股市的看涨情绪，因 为这将增加美联储进一步降息的可能性。 投资者正在等待相关数据的线索，以判断美联储在连续三次降息后是否即将结束宽松货币政策，或者是 否必须采取更激进的措施。 "我们现在坚定地回到了好即坏/坏即好的局面，"Wilson在一份报告中写道，并解释说，劳动力市场繁 荣虽然对经济有利，但会降低2026年降息的可能性。 本周将在很大程度上填补美国政府停摆造成的数据空白，周二将公布延迟的月度就业数据，周四将公布 消费者通胀数据。 经济学家预计，就业人数将增加5万人，失业率为4.5%，这与疲软、但不会迅速恶化的劳动力市场相 符。 经济学家预计，就业人数将增加5万人，失业率为4.5%，这与疲软、但不会迅速恶化的劳动力市场相 符。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：陈钰嘉 摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson表示，本周美国就业数据的温和疲软可能会助长股市的看涨情绪，因 为这将增加美联储进一步降息的可能性。 投资者正在等待相关数据的线索，以判断美联储在连续三次降息后 ...