据新华社报道，近期中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行。在此背景下，特朗普刚对华示好，国 际局势却风云突变。 当地时间7月16日，特朗普在签署"全面遏制芬太尼贩运法案"前，谈及芬太尼问题时称中方一直在该问 题上帮助美国。而此前，特朗普曾借芬太尼问题对中国发起关税威胁，态度可谓180度大转弯。不仅如 此，近段时间美国在芯片出口等问题上对中国松口，恢复处理中国留学生赴美签证、准许美国能源企业 对华出口乙烷、撤销对华芯片设计软件出口许可证要求等。 冯德莱恩（资料图） 特朗普态度转变，主要是因为美国在对华关税战中并未占到便宜。一方面，美国国内企业因关税成本上 升，经营压力增大，不少企业呼吁缓和对华关系。另一方面，美国在国际上的贸易伙伴也对其关税政策 心生不满，美国的国际经济环境有所恶化。特朗普政府意识到，一味强硬难以达到目的，开始寻求与中 国的合作契机，为后续的经贸谈判等创造有利条件。 特朗普宣布自8月1日起对欧盟加征30%的关税，本以为能让欧盟服软。可欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩迅速 回应，宣布欧盟与印尼签订了自由贸易协定。印尼作为金砖组织重要成员国，与欧盟达成自贸协定，无 疑在特朗普的贸易战略布局上撕开一道口子。欧盟 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected backlash against Trump's tariff policies, particularly from Brazil, which challenges the U.S.'s dominant position in global trade [1][2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Reactions - Trump's administration planned to impose tariffs as high as 50% on Brazilian goods to address perceived trade deficits, but Brazil countered that the trade relationship has resulted in a surplus for the U.S. exceeding $410 billion over the past 15 years [4]. - Brazil's strong rejection of the tariff policy, including a refusal to accept unilateral actions from the U.S., signals a shift in its willingness to act as a subordinate in trade matters [4][10]. - In response to Brazil's defiance, Trump shifted his strategy to impose a uniform 15% tariff on over 120 countries, indicating a significant underestimation of global reactions [6][15]. Group 2: Global Implications - Brazil's stance has prompted other nations, including Japan, South Korea, and Canada, to reassess their positions regarding U.S. trade policies, with many expressing dissatisfaction and considering retaliatory measures [10][11]. - Japan's Prime Minister has indicated a desire for greater independence from U.S. influence, reflecting a broader trend among nations to seek more balanced trade relationships [11]. - Countries like Canada and Vietnam are also preparing to implement countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, highlighting a growing resistance to Trump's unilateral approach [13][15]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - The article suggests that while Trump's tariffs may yield short-term benefits, the long-term global backlash could force the U.S. to reevaluate its trade strategies [19][21]. - The evolving global economic order, marked by countries asserting their trade rights, indicates a potential shift away from U.S. dominance in international trade [16][19].

7月18日上午，中国—上海合作组织地方经贸合作大会在青岛·上合之珠国际博览中心开幕。大会期间，《中国—上海合作组织地方经贸合作大会青岛倡议》 （以下简称"《青岛倡议》"）正式发布，为上合组织框架下地方间的经贸合作擘画了清晰路径，贡献了坚实的"上合智慧"。 三、共同推动贸易投资提质升级。深度挖掘上合组织地方间贸易潜力，支持企业合规举办面向对方市场的展览展会，深化电子商务、服务贸易、数字贸易合 作，优化贸易结构，培育外贸新动能，扩大进出口规模。加强上合组织地方间投资促进机构交流合作，相互支持搭建投资对话平台，举办投资促进活动，优 化投资发展环境，在绿色低碳、数字经济、现代农业、基础设施等领域共享高质量发展新机遇。 《青岛倡议》立足于"上海精神"，提出了六大核心合作方向，构建一个更加紧密、高效、共赢的地方经贸合作新格局。 一、携手构建国际物流大通道。积极参与上合组织国家间国际物流大通道建设。发挥青岛在"一带一路"新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊建设和海上合作中的作用，建 设上合国际枢纽港，打造上合组织国家面向亚太市场的"出海口"。加强上合组织地方间枢纽城市互联互通，积极开展上合组织国家间的海、铁、公路联合服 务合作，打造"陆海 ...

Group 1: Visa Waiver Agreement Impact - The mutual visa waiver agreement between China and Malaysia officially took effect on July 17, allowing citizens of both countries to enter each other's territory without a visa for up to 30 days, with no termination date set for the policy [3][5][15] - Following the agreement, there has been a significant increase in flight operations, with over 4,000 flights to Malaysia since 2025, marking a growth of over 40% [5][6] - The number of Malaysian travelers entering China through Shenzhen Airport has exceeded 148,000 since 2025, reflecting a nearly 60% year-on-year increase, making Malaysian nationals the largest group of foreign travelers at this airport [7][15] Group 2: Tourism Industry Response - Travel agencies in both countries are actively expanding their offerings, with a notable increase in demand for deep travel experiences and educational tours, particularly during the summer peak season [8][10] - Following the announcement of the visa waiver, travel agencies reported a 30% increase in transaction volume, with popular destinations experiencing supply shortages [12][10] - The demand for business travel has also surged, with multiple business delegations from Malaysia visiting China to explore investment opportunities [13][18] Group 3: Economic Cooperation Enhancement - The visa waiver is expected to stabilize business expectations and reduce costs for enterprises, facilitating more efficient cross-border cooperation [15][17] - Companies in Shenzhen have reported a significant reduction in order processing time, from an average of 2-3 months to 1-1.5 months, leading to a 30% increase in order conversion rates [18][21] - Chinese companies are more confident in expanding their operations in Malaysia, with one brand already establishing over 100 stores in the country since 2025 [23]

巴西外长：我们正在等待美国对我们的贸易提议做出回应。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Switzerland's exports to the U.S. rebounded in June, indicating strong bilateral trade amid ongoing tariff negotiations between the two countries [1] Trade Performance - Swiss exports to the U.S. increased by 26.9% in June compared to May, after seasonal adjustments [1] - Imports from the U.S. saw a slight growth of 0.2% [1] Trade Agreement Negotiations - Switzerland is in negotiations with the U.S. to reach a trade agreement, with Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter stating that the two countries are "very close" to an agreement [1] - Reports suggest that the draft agreement includes guarantees to avoid tariffs on Swiss pharmaceutical exports [1] Political Context - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated to Switzerland that an agreement is imminent, but President Trump mentioned that global pharmaceutical tariffs could be implemented as early as August 1 [1] - Swiss left-wing lawmakers are calling for joint countermeasures with the EU in response to U.S. tariffs [1]

金十数据7月17日讯，印度在与美国进行贸易谈判时寻求比印尼和越南更低的关税，而特朗普则暗示将 达成"相当不错的协议"。据周四的一份报告称，一名印度官员表示，在与特朗普政府进行的贸易谈判 中，印度希望达成一项比印尼和越南更有利的税率协议。 特朗普周二表示，将对印尼征收19%的关 税，并可实现美国商品对印尼零关税出口。这一税率较4月宣布的32%有所下调。越南的关税税率则降 至20%。外媒此前报道称，美国和印度正致力于达成一项协议，将拟议税率降至20%以下。印度相信， 其与美国的贸易协议将优于印尼和越南，因为美国并不视其为像其他东南亚国家那样的转运枢纽。 印度寻求与美达成比印尼和越南更低的关税协议 ...

Core Viewpoint - Thailand's Finance Minister is set to meet with U.S. trade officials to propose new measures aimed at avoiding a potential 36% tariff threatened by President Trump [1] Group 1 - The meeting will involve discussions on revised proposals, including further tariff reductions on U.S. products [1] - The Thai Commerce Minister indicated that the Finance Minister will hold a video conference with U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer [1]

据央视新闻，当地时间7月12日，美国总统特朗普宣布自2025年8月1日起，美国将对来自欧盟的输美产 品征收30%的关税。对此，越来越多的欧盟成员国希望在8月1日前无法达成可接受协议的情况下，启动 该集团最强有力的贸易工具——反胁迫工具进行反击。 "这些是具有挑战性的复杂谈判，我们作为欧盟仍专注于实质性讨论。" "在这场谈判中，你需要展示力量、武力、团结和决心。" 风险提示及免责条款 法国主导推动，欧盟委员会持谨慎立场 "反胁迫工具是为非常情况而设，我们还没到那个地步。" 以法国为首的半数以上欧盟国家支持动用这一工具，该工具赋予欧盟官员广泛的报复权力，包括对美国 科技巨头征收新税、限制美国在欧投资，以及限制美国企业进入欧盟市场。据媒体援引知情人士透露， 贸易部长们在周一的会议上讨论了这一问题。 美欧之间的谈判仍在继续。欧盟专员Michael McGrath周三对媒体表示，预计8月1日前能达成协议，尽 管布鲁塞尔对收到特朗普的信件"感到惊讶和失望"。McGrath称： 法国欧洲事务部长Benjamin Haddad表示，欧盟的回应应包括使用这一工具的选项。他在接受采访时 称： 反胁迫工具作为欧盟贸易防线的"重器" ...

周三(7月16日)亚市盘中，国际白银区间维持震荡走势，截至发稿报37.83美元/盎司，涨幅0.35%。当前 投资者在等待美国周三将公布的生产者物价指数(PPI)，寻找更多美联储动向的线索。 周二公布的6月消费者价格指数(CPI)报告显示，受进口商品价格飙升推动，美国总体通胀年率如预期骤 升至2.7%。 市场专家警告，当前价格压力仅反映部分行业关税的初步影响，特朗普政府对多国加征关税的全面效果 尚未显现。这可能促使美联储官员要求更多时间评估关税对通胀的影响。 【白银技术面与长期预测】 【要闻速递】 美国宣布对欧盟、日本、加拿大、墨西哥、韩国等主要贸易伙伴及另外17个国家实施对等关税，全球贸 易和谐前景再添变数。 美国总统特朗普因22国未能在90天关税休战期内达成协议而加征关税。与此同时，若欧盟未能在8月1日 新期限前与美国达成协议，也已准备好对等反制措施。欧盟若对美国进口商品实施报复性措施恐加剧贸 易紧张——特朗普早已警告，任何经济体采取反制都将招致额外关税。 值得注意的是，随着进口商开始将关税成本转嫁给消费者，美国通胀压力加速上升。这令市场质疑美联 储是否仍会在9月政策会议上降息，此种情景对油价构成利空。 白 ...