Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition in the food delivery industry is shifting from aggressive subsidy wars to a more rational approach, as major players like JD.com, Meituan, and Ele.me express their intention to resist "involutionary" competition [1][2][3]. Group 1: Characteristics of Involutionary Competition - Involutionary competition is characterized by chaotic expansion and zero-sum games among companies vying for limited market share [8]. - Three typical manifestations of involutionary competition include: 1. Price Wars: When prices are driven down to unsustainable levels, leading to losses across the industry [9]. 2. Imitation Wars: Companies blindly follow trends without maintaining their unique offerings, resulting in homogenized products [10]. 3. Internal Strife: Companies focus on undermining competitors rather than expanding the market, often through unethical practices [12][13]. Group 2: Strategies to Avoid Involutionary Competition - Companies should focus on creating value rather than competing on price, ensuring customers perceive their offerings as worth the price [16][20]. - Differentiation is essential for competitive advantage, allowing companies to avoid resource-draining competition by offering unique value propositions [21][24]. - Transitioning from zero-sum games to win-win relationships is crucial, as illustrated by the example of Ford and General Motors, where mutual support can lead to overall industry health [25][30].

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Tencent Holdings (00700) has exceeded expectations in its Q2 performance, with a 15% year-on-year revenue growth, surpassing market expectations by 3% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 15% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 3% [1] - Adjusted operating profit rose by 18% year-on-year, exceeding expectations by 5% [1] - Gross margin expansion contributed significantly to the strong performance [1] Business Segments - Online gaming and advertising businesses showed strong performance, providing visibility for revenue in the second half of the year [1] - Upcoming launches such as "Delta Action" PC version, "Valorant" mobile game, and the 10th anniversary event of "Honor of Kings" are expected to drive growth [1] Investment Outlook - UBS maintains Tencent as a top industry pick, raising the target price from HKD 710 to HKD 720 and reiterating a "Buy" rating [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been increased by 3% to 4% [1] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure decreased by 30% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 [1] - UBS views this reduction as a short-term impact due to GPU import restrictions, with management indicating a continued diversified chip strategy and efficiency improvements [1]

Tencent Holdings Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings - **Date**: Q2 2025 Earnings Call Key Financial Metrics - Total revenue increased by 15% year-on-year to **184 billion RMB** [2][3] - Gross profit rose by 22% to **105 billion RMB** [2][3] - Non-IFRS operating profit surged by 80% to **69 billion RMB** [2][3] - Non-IFRS net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 10% to **63 billion RMB** [2][3] - Basic net profit, excluding contributions from associates, increased by 20% [3] Gaming Business Highlights - Domestic gaming revenue grew by 17%, driven by long-standing games like **Dota 2** and **Honor of Kings** [2][5] - International gaming revenue increased by 35% (33% at constant currency), supported by titles from **Supercell**, **PUBG Mobile**, and **Awakening of the Song** [2][5] - **Valorant** achieved record average daily active users in China, with **Valorant Mobile** set to launch soon [5] Social Network and Digital Content Developments - Combined monthly active users of **WeChat** reached **1.4 billion** [2][6] - Mini-programs became a crucial platform connecting users with businesses, with mini-game revenue up by 20% [2][6] - Music streaming service **PNE** solidified its leadership, with subscription revenue up by 17% and total subscribers reaching **124 million** [6] Financial Technology and Commercial Services - Financial technology and commercial services revenue rose by 10% to **56 billion RMB** [4][12] - Growth in financial technology services driven by commercial payment and consumer loan services [4][12] - Cloud services revenue accelerated due to increased demand for AI-related GPU and API token services [4][12] Advertising Revenue Growth - Advertising revenue increased by 20%, attributed to improved click-through rates from AI technology deployment [4][11] - AI-driven advertising strategies enhanced return on investment for advertisers [4][11] AI Technology Integration - AI technology upgraded advertising capabilities, improving click rates and conversion rates [2][7] - Large language model features added to mini-programs for smarter customer responses and personalized recommendations [2][7] - AI tools applied in gaming to enhance content creation speed and scale [7] Business Segment Performance - Value-added services (VAST) accounted for 50% of total revenue, with social networks at 18%, domestic games at 22%, and international games at 10% [8] - Marketing services contributed 19% and financial technology and commercial services 30% to total revenue [8] Future Outlook - Continued exploration of AI commercialization opportunities, despite challenges in user payment models in China [4][17] - Anticipated sustained growth in advertising revenue, with AI expected to enhance targeting and conversion rates [11][20] - Ongoing investment in AI and cloud services to meet increasing external enterprise demand [20] Additional Insights - The gaming business is evolving towards a platform model, reducing revenue volatility [21] - Government anti-inflation measures may reduce competition but could accelerate industry consolidation, requiring strategic adjustments [22] - Commercial payment trends show improvement, with transaction volumes growing despite declining average transaction sizes [23] Conclusion Tencent Holdings demonstrated robust growth across various segments in Q2 2025, leveraging AI technology to enhance advertising and gaming experiences while maintaining a strong financial performance. The company is well-positioned for future growth, particularly in the realms of AI and cloud services.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Chinese Internet industry** and its current valuation, which is considered low compared to historical levels and international counterparts. [4][13] - The **AI technology** development is highlighted as a transformative force in the tech sector, with companies like DeepSeek, Kimi, and Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen showcasing strong capabilities and moving towards commercialization. [1][5][7] Core Insights and Arguments - **Valuation Trends**: Chinese internet companies' valuations have dropped below 20 times earnings, with some even under 10 times, while international counterparts remain at 20-30 times. This presents a potential for recovery as AI technology and new market opportunities emerge. [4][8] - **AI's Impact**: AI is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs in the internet sector, providing significant opportunities for growth. Despite some setbacks, the long-term trajectory for AI development remains positive. [5][6][8] - **Gaming Industry Outlook**: The gaming sector is projected to perform well in 2025, with Tencent's new game "Valorant" expected to boost market performance. The stable issuance of game licenses and expansion into overseas markets are also positive factors. [9] - **E-commerce Competition**: The local e-commerce sector is experiencing intense competition, particularly with platforms like JD.com entering the market. Instant retail is identified as a key growth area, with companies like Meituan expanding internationally. [9][10] - **Advertising Sector Resilience**: The advertising industry is showing resilience, particularly among leading and niche platforms. AI is enhancing advertising efficiency, leading to improved ROI and material production efficiency. [11] Additional Important Insights - **Digital Transformation**: The integration of internet technology with traditional industries is creating new business opportunities, driven by China's engineering talent and internet development. [2][12] - **Investment Recommendations**: Given the low valuation levels, investors are encouraged to focus on internet companies with solid fundamentals and genuine investment in AI applications for medium-term asset allocation. [13] - **Company-Specific Outlook**: Companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi are viewed positively, with expectations of new product launches and strong market positions. Meituan is also highlighted for its competitive advantages in delivery and retail. [14][15] - **Future of AI Applications**: The development of video models in AI is emphasized as a significant area of growth, with companies like Kuaishou leading in domestic markets. [16][17] - **Overall Industry Sentiment**: The internet industry is entering a new phase of growth and evolution, with increased investment and a focus on AI-driven business models. [18]

编者按：高盛全球投资研究部宏观分析师最新表示，尽管市场出现各种波动，但这几点仍然成立：做多美国股票（偏向 科技股）；做多价值储存资产（黄金 / 白银 / 比特币）； 做空美元（规模适中）； 收益率曲线陡峭化交易（全球适 用）。 一、美股市场叙事 上周一走进办公室时，我原以为市场的主导话题会是美国劳动力市场新出现的疲软迹象。 但到周末时，情况已很明显，市场并未受到明显影响，非农就业报告也没有改变风险偏好。 我并不是说市场走势平稳，实际上，这更像是一场拉锯战，每天都有各自的故事 —— 但数据说明了一切。 也就是说：标普 500 指数收复了上周的全部失地，纳斯达克 100 指数再创历史新高。 事后看来，对于这种韧性，我提出三个假设： i. 本周（指截至8月10日这周，下同）又有新的人工智能刺激因素（例如，Palantir 全程走高，再涨 21%）。 ii. 尽管投机性需求在减弱，但更广泛的资本流动仍然健康…… 实际经济和企业的买盘活动都很活跃。 iii. 本周再次提醒我们一个永恒的真理：经济周期固然重要，但股市并非经济本身。 二、市场框架 从技术面来看，整体仍呈积极态势，但在交易界大幅增持风险资产之后，接下来的操作 ...

智通财经APP获悉，上周初，当美国劳动力数据初显疲软时，许多人以为这将成为美股市场情绪的转折点。然而，短短 几天后，标普500指数不仅收复失地，纳斯达克100指数更是悄然创下历史新高。高盛全球投资研究部宏观分析师最新表 示，尽管市场出现各种波动，但核心策略依然有效：做多美国股票（侧重科技股）、做多价值储存资产（黄金/白银/比 特币）、适度做空美元，以及全球范围内的收益率曲线陡峭化交易。 一、美股市场叙事 上周一走进办公室时，我原以为市场的主导话题会是美国劳动力市场新出现的疲软迹象。 但到周末时，情况已很明显，市场并未受到明显影响，非农就业报告也没有改变风险偏好。 我并不是说市场走势平稳，实际上，这更像是一场拉锯战，每天都有各自的故事 —— 但数据说明了一切。 也就是说：标普 500 指数收复了上周的全部失地，纳斯达克 100 指数再创历史新高。 事后看来，对于这种韧性，我提出三个假设： i. 本周（指截至8月10日这周，下同）又有新的人工智能刺激因素（例如，Palantir 全程走高，再涨 21%）。 ii. 尽管投机性需求在减弱，但更广泛的资本流动仍然健康…… 实际经济和企业的买盘活动都很活跃。 iii. ...

Group 1 - The impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the U.S. financial market is significant, with companies like Nvidia (NVDA.US) reaching a market capitalization of nearly $4.5 trillion, while startups like OpenAI and Anthropic have raised billions [1] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the potential disruption caused by AI, leading to sell-offs in stocks of companies expected to see declining demand due to AI advancements, including Wix.com (WIX.US), Shutterstock (SSTK.US), and Adobe (ADBE.US) [1][5] - Since mid-May, the performance of the group of companies identified as most at risk from AI has lagged the S&P 500 index by approximately 22 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Daniel Newman, CEO of Futurum Group, indicated that the anticipated impact of AI on service-oriented industries may occur sooner than expected, potentially within two years instead of five [2] - Major tech companies like Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Meta (META.US) are investing hundreds of billions into AI research, causing investors to adopt a more cautious stance [5] - By 2025, Wix.com and Shutterstock's stock prices are projected to drop by at least 33%, while Adobe's stock is expected to decline by 23% due to fears of clients shifting to AI-generated content [5] Group 3 - Investor sentiment is turning negative as AI changes how information is accessed and how businesses operate, with even leading tech firms like Microsoft reducing jobs to allocate more resources for AI investments [6] - Gartner Inc. recently lowered its revenue forecasts, resulting in a 30% drop in its stock price, highlighting the market's concerns about AI's disruptive potential [6][9] - Historical precedents exist where new technologies have replaced old industries, raising fears that many companies may become obsolete due to AI [9] Group 4 - The current market dynamics show that AI is a dominant factor in determining stock winners and losers, contrasting with earlier concerns about competition from low-cost AI models in China [10] - Major companies like Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon are expected to invest approximately $350 billion in capital expenditures this fiscal year, a nearly 50% increase from the previous year, primarily for AI infrastructure [10] - Google is seen as well-positioned in the AI landscape, yet it is also included in the basket of companies assessed for AI risk, indicating ongoing concerns about its stock performance [10] Group 5 - Companies in the advertising sector, such as Omnicom Group, are facing significant challenges, with Omnicom's stock down 15% due to competition from AI-driven advertising solutions [11] - WPP, a competitor, has seen its stock price drop over 50%, reflecting the pressure on traditional advertising models from AI advancements [11][12] - Analysts predict that the investment theme surrounding AI risks will continue to gain traction as many companies face potential threats from AI technologies [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 汇量科技 (01860) has seen a significant stock increase of over 11%, attributed to positive performance from mobile advertising platform Applovin, which reported a 77% year-on-year revenue growth in Q2, reaching $1.259 billion [1] - Applovin's net profit surged by 164% year-on-year to $820 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $1.018 billion, reflecting a 99% increase [1] - 中信证券's recent report highlights that generative AI is transforming the advertising network landscape, moving from "traffic competition" to an "algorithm flywheel" era, benefiting platforms like 汇量科技's Mintegral [1] Group 2 - In Q1, 汇量科技's programmatic advertising platform Mintegral achieved impressive revenue of $420.8 million, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of 48.4% [2] - The company attributes this growth to its AI and machine learning-based smart bidding system, with smart bidding products contributing over 80% of Mintegral's total revenue during the reporting period [2] - The adoption of smart bidding products has become the core driver of revenue and profit growth for Mintegral [2]

智通财经APP获悉，汇量科技(01860)涨超11%，截至发稿，涨11.46%，报11.67港元，成交额3.09亿港 元。 消息面上，移动应用广告平台Applovin最新业绩显示，该公司二季度营收12.59亿美元，同比增长77%， 胜市场预期；纯利8.2亿美元，同比飙升164%；调整后EBITDA为10.18亿美元，同比增长99%；调整后 每股盈利2.39美元，优于市场预期的2.32美元。中信证券近期研报指出，生成式AI正将广告网络从"流 量竞争"推向"算法飞轮"时代。AppLovin AXON2.0、 汇量科技Mintegral等独立平台凭算法壁垒穿越周 期，收入与分成率同步向上，并向电商、CTV等新场景外溢。预计未来五年程序化广告仍保持较高增 长，头部平台保持领先。 今年一季度，汇量科技程序化广告平台Mintegral表现亮眼，录得收入4.208亿美元，同比大幅增长 48.4%。汇量科技称，自2023年集团发展基于AI和机器学习的智能出价体系以来，包括Target ROAS在 内的智能竞价产品持续得到广告主认可，报告期内，智能出价产品贡献的收入占Mintegral总收入的比例 已超过80%，成为推动Min ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong financial performance of major US tech giants Google, Meta, and Microsoft, driven by traditional "tech + retail" cycles and a new "AI internal cycle" that supports robust growth [6][8][19]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Google reported Q2 revenue of $96.4 billion, a year-on-year growth of 14%, marking a high point in the last three reporting periods [8]. - Microsoft achieved Q2 revenue of $76.4 billion, with an 18% year-on-year growth, the highest growth rate in 2024 [8]. - Meta's Q2 revenue reached $47.5 billion, reflecting a 22% year-on-year growth, also a new high in the last four reporting periods [8]. - Profit figures were equally impressive, with Google at $28.2 billion (up 19%), Microsoft at $27.2 billion (up 24%), and Meta at $18.3 billion (up 38%) [10]. Group 2: Cloud Business Growth - Both Google and Microsoft's cloud businesses showed significant growth, with Microsoft's intelligent cloud business growing by 26% and Google Cloud's growth reaching 31.5% [11]. Group 3: Capital Expenditure Trends - All three tech giants reported record capital expenditures in Q2, with Microsoft at $24.2 billion (up 27%), Meta at $17 billion (doubling year-on-year), and Google at $22.4 billion (up 70%) [14]. - Future capital expenditure expectations have been raised, with Microsoft signaling a projected $30 billion for the next fiscal quarter [17]. Group 4: Advertising and Retail Dynamics - The article emphasizes the ongoing "tech + retail" cycle, with advertising being a key growth driver for Google and Meta [20]. - Google's advertising revenue saw a 5.5 percentage point increase, while Meta's advertising revenue grew by 22% [22]. - The US digital media market is projected to grow by 8.9% in 2024, with retail leading the way in advertising spending [23]. Group 5: AI Internal Cycle - The article introduces the concept of an "AI internal cycle," which, while currently having a limited impact, is expected to grow as AI applications gain traction [27][32]. - The report notes that AI applications are seeing increased investment, with significant growth in categories like AI companions and education [28]. - The potential for AI to enhance advertising revenue and cloud computing demand is highlighted, suggesting a self-reinforcing cycle of growth [32]. Group 6: Global Tech Leadership - The article draws parallels between the financial performance of US tech giants and the broader implications for AI development globally, suggesting that the commercial instincts of US companies are key to building an effective AI internal cycle [33][34].