周四（6月26日）纽约尾盘，CME比特币期货BTC主力合约较周三纽约尾盘跌0.12%，报10.8万美元。 CME以太币期货DCR主力合约涨0.12%，报2444.50美元。 ...

Core Insights - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with red dates and urea rising over 2% while SC crude oil fell over 8% [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Red dates and urea increased by more than 2% [1] - Manganese silicon, silicon iron, coke, stainless steel, industrial silicon, and Shanghai lead rose by over 1% [1] - SC crude oil dropped by more than 8%, and fuel oil fell by over 5% [1] Group 2: Other Notable Changes - The shipping index for Europe declined by over 3% [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), rapeseed meal, and pulp all decreased by over 2% [1] - Asphalt experienced a nearly 2% decline [1]

CME以太币期货DCR主力合约涨5.16%，报2435.00美元。 周二（6月24日）纽约尾盘，CME比特币期货BTC主力合约较周一纽约尾盘涨2.12%，报10.5万美元，亚 太盘初"高开"之后全天高位窄幅震荡。 ...

Core Insights - The geopolitical situation and central bank monetary policies are key factors influencing forex market volatility, with significant events in June 2025 altering short-term trends [1] - A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran on June 23 led to a 5% drop in oil prices, reducing market risk aversion and impacting the dollar's strength [2] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance, with officials advocating for a quick interest rate cut, increased the probability of a July rate cut to 23%, further weakening the dollar [3] Event-Driven Analysis - The ceasefire between Israel and Iran significantly reduced geopolitical risk, leading to a decline in demand for safe-haven assets like the dollar, thus creating favorable conditions for non-USD currencies [2] - The Federal Reserve's dovish comments reflect concerns about the U.S. economy, with indicators suggesting potential economic slowdown, prompting a shift in market expectations towards rate cuts [3] Forex Market Impact - The dollar index broke key support levels, reaching a six-week low, indicating a potential new adjustment cycle due to reduced safe-haven demand and rising rate cut expectations [4] - The EUR/USD pair successfully broke the 1.08 resistance level, indicating strong bullish sentiment despite challenges in the Eurozone economy [6] - The Japanese yen experienced a strong rebound due to a wave of short covering in the context of changing market risk preferences [7] Trading Strategy Analysis - Different G10 currencies may exhibit varying performances in the current environment, with the British pound influenced by Brexit developments and the euro benefiting from relative stability [8] - The Chinese economy's recovery will significantly impact the Australian dollar, while the Canadian dollar may face pressure from falling oil prices but could rebound with improved global economic expectations [8] - The current market conditions provide a favorable window for Chinese exporters to manage currency exposure effectively, while investors should remain vigilant regarding macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments [9]

Group 1 - Mysteel data indicates that the total amount of iron ore arriving at Chinese ports from June 16 to June 22, 2025, was 25.627 million tons, an increase of 1.782 million tons compared to the previous week [1] - According to SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil yield per hectare increased by 2.67% from June 1 to June 20, 2025, while the extraction rate decreased by 0.03%, resulting in a production increase of 2.5% compared to the same period last month [1] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced the addition of several companies as designated delivery service providers for red dates futures, effective immediately [1] Group 2 - As of June 23, 2025, the total inventory of styrene at Jiangsu ports was 85,000 tons, an increase of 18,700 tons, representing a 28.21% rise compared to the previous period [1] - Mysteel's survey shows that as of June 20, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 886,300 tons, an increase of 39,300 tons, or 4.64%, compared to the previous week [2] - The USDA's weekly crop progress report indicated that as of June 22, 2025, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans was 66%, below market expectations of 67%, while corn was rated at 70%, below expectations of 72% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has approved the registration of pure benzene futures and options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, indicating a significant development in the commodity trading market [1] Group 1 - The CSRC will supervise the Dalian Commodity Exchange to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of pure benzene futures and options [1]

智通财经6月20日电，大连商品交易所公告，自2025年6月24日交易时起对期权行权及对冲业务功能进行 升级调整。新增期权放弃申请，期权买方对到期日不想执行的期权合约数量进行直接的意愿表达，并取 消"取消到期日自动行权申请"功能。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) is undergoing transformation by shifting more bulk trades to its electronic platform, LME Select, to enhance market liquidity and transparency, despite some resistance from members who feel their business is being encroached upon [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Transformation - LME aims to increase trading activities on the exchange by encouraging members to process certain client orders through LME Select, allowing for competitive bidding that could yield better prices for clients [3][4]. - The LME's commitment to improving market transparency has intensified following the 2022 nickel crisis, which highlighted the impact of over-the-counter (OTC) positions on price volatility [3][4]. Group 2: Member Dynamics - The LME has rejected proposals to transform into a fully open futures market, maintaining that trading must still occur through member channels, thus preserving their control over trading records and market liquidity [4]. - The exchange's cautious approach is justified as metal trading liquidity is inherently limited compared to other commodities, and member market-making activities are crucial for maintaining the vitality of less liquid contracts [4]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - LSEG has expanded its advanced trading platform, utilizing artificial intelligence to optimize negotiation processes, reduce error rates, and enhance bilateral trading efficiency [2][5]. - The integration of automated features into the LSEG Messenger service aims to streamline communication between members and clients, further improving trading efficiency [5].

Group 1 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) announced the expansion of the range of commodities available for trading by qualified foreign institutional investors starting from June 20, 2025 [1] - New futures and options contracts for ethylene glycol and liquefied petroleum gas will be available for trading by qualified foreign investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian Royal Bank warns that the S&P 500 could drop by 20% due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran, suggesting that the market may be overly complacent about the potential escalation of the situation [7][8]. Market Reactions - Global stock markets showed a positive trend despite the ongoing conflict, with the Nasdaq index achieving its largest single-day percentage gain since late May [4][5]. - On Monday, major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.75% to 42,515.09 points, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.94% to 6,033.11 points, and the Nasdaq gaining 1.52% to 19,701.21 points [5]. - However, on Tuesday, market sentiment reversed, with WTI crude oil prices rising by 1.44% and gold prices also increasing slightly, while U.S. stock index futures declined [2][5]. Analyst Warnings - Analysts express concerns that investors may be underestimating the risks of a broader conflict in the Middle East, with warnings that the situation could escalate into a prolonged war [7][8]. - RBC analysts predict that the S&P 500 could fall to a range of 4,800 to 5,200 points, indicating a potential decline of up to 20% due to the adverse effects of the conflict [7]. - The market's current trajectory is seen as overly optimistic, with analysts suggesting that the ongoing conflict could have significant implications for U.S. stock valuations, corporate earnings, and economic growth [8].