期货交易
Search documents
期货技术分析周报:2025年第44周-20251026
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-26 14:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows significant differentiation across various sectors. The non - ferrous and precious metals sector has a mixed situation, with precious metals showing callback risks and some non - ferrous metals having bullish signals. The black and shipping sector has some products with bearish signals and others in a volatile state. The energy and chemical sector is generally strong, but also has internal differentiation. The agricultural products sector is also divided, with some products bullish, some volatile, and some bearish [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Precious metals like gold and silver show callback risks, while non - ferrous metals such as cast aluminum alloy, copper, nickel, and stainless steel show bullish signals. Most other non - ferrous metals are in a volatile state. Lithium carbonate LC2601 has been rising this week, with support from the MA60 moving average, but some indicators are overbought [9][10][11]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: The non - ferrous metals sector is generally strong, with prices of some bullish products approaching the resistance level R1, and attention should be paid to R2 and R3. Precious metals like gold and silver have a callback trend, and attention should be paid to the support at S1 and S2 [16]. 3.2. Black and Shipping Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Rebar and iron ore show bearish signals, the European line shows a bearish signal, shipping is mainly in a volatile state, and other products are also volatile [18][19]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Iron ore is bearish, with prices approaching the key support levels S1 and S2. If there is heavy - volume decline, it may fall to S3. Most other products such as hot - rolled coils, wires, and coking coal are in a volatile state, and the European line shipping is also volatile with intense long - short competition [25]. 3.3. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Energy products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG show bullish signals, and low - sulfur fuel oil shows a volatile signal. Chemical products such as PTA, p - xylene, etc. show bullish signals, while methanol, PVC, etc. show bearish signals, and most other products are volatile [29][30][31]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: The energy sector is strong, with prices of some products breaking through the pivot point and approaching R1, and the upside space can reach R2. The chemical sector is internally differentiated, with some products bullish and some bearish, and overall, attention should be paid to price fluctuations around the pivot point [35]. 3.4. Agricultural Products Sector - **Technical Indicator Signal Summary**: Soybean No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton yarn, and eggs show bullish signals, rapeseed meal, peanuts, and red dates show bearish signals, and most other products are volatile. Soybean meal M2601 rose slightly this week, and if it breaks through the MA60 moving average with heavy volume, there may be a rebound trend [40][42][45]. - **Weekly Pivot Analysis**: Products with bullish ratings are above the pivot point and testing the R1 resistance. Most other products are in a volatile pattern, and rapeseed meal, peanuts, and red dates are under pressure below the pivot point and testing the S1 support [48].
ICE农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌,咖啡期货跌2.46%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-25 00:31
Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures closed mostly lower on October 24, with significant declines in raw sugar and coffee futures prices [1] Group 1: Futures Performance - Raw sugar futures fell by 2.09%, closing at 14.97 cents per pound [1] - Coffee futures decreased by 2.46%, ending at 400.05 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures experienced a slight decline of 0.11%, closing at $6,332.00 per ton [1] - Cotton futures saw a minor increase of 0.17%, closing at 64.18 cents per pound [1]
线上研讨会活动回顾 | 棕榈油市场展望:在全球贸易格局变化与地缘政治影响下的市场洞察
Refinitiv路孚特· 2025-10-24 06:03
Core Insights - The article discusses the future outlook of the palm oil market, focusing on supply, demand, and regulatory dynamics leading up to 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Climate Challenges and Regulatory Impact - Dr. Kian Pang Tan highlighted the dual challenges posed by climate change and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), predicting a 1% year-on-year decline in palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia due to aging trees, slow replanting, and increased pest issues [2]. - Extreme weather events, including droughts and floods, are further affecting harvesting progress, with forecasts indicating regional rainfall variability due to a weak La Niña phenomenon [2]. - The postponement of the EUDR implementation to the end of 2026 has led to mixed reactions within the industry and created confusion in market pricing mechanisms [2]. - However, the CEPA agreement between Indonesia and the EU, along with potential tariff exemptions from the U.S., may significantly boost export volumes in the coming years [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Supply Outlook - Issabelle Cheah from UOB Kay Hian Futures noted that Malaysian palm oil production peaked in August and is now entering a seasonal decline, with October inventories expected to reach a peak [6]. - In China, strong soybean crushing has led to an increase in vegetable oil inventories to 2.4 million tons, with palm oil stocks rising to an 18-month high, indicating an oversupply situation [6]. - Indian port inventories have also reached a 20-month high, limiting import profits and expected to suppress purchasing demand during the festive season [6]. - The biodiesel program in Indonesia remains a key driver for domestic palm oil demand, with the potential implementation of the B45 policy expected to add an additional 1.9 million kiloliters of demand, equivalent to 1.7 million tons of CPO usage [6]. - The U.S. EPA's ruling on small refinery exemptions (SRE) could also significantly impact soybean oil demand [6]. Group 3: BMD's Strategic Positioning - Brandon Chia from the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) discussed the strategy to establish BMD as a global pricing center for edible oils, noting that the FCPO contract has become the most liquid palm oil trading tool globally, accounting for 97% of global futures trading volume [5]. - The FCPO contract serves as a price benchmark for sustainable palm oil trading, with all physical deliveries required to meet MSPO certification [5]. - New products introduced include USD-denominated used cooking oil futures (FUCO) and soybean oil futures (FSOY) authorized by the Dalian Commodity Exchange, providing market participants with additional risk management tools and supporting the transition to renewable energy [5].
大商所生猪期货仓单:10月23日111手环比持平
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-23 08:17
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported that the number of live pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 111 contracts as of October 23 [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that there was no week-on-week change in the live pig futures warehouse receipts [1]
美国政府向玉米种植户发放补贴 晚籼稻期货维持不变
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-23 04:16
Group 1 - The main contract for late indica rice futures remains unchanged at 2535.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] Group 2 - According to foreign media forecasts, U.S. corn net export sales for the 2025/26 marketing year are expected to be between 800,000 to 2,000,000 tons as of the week ending October 16, 2025 [2] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) anticipates that Brazil's corn exports for October will reach 6.57 million tons, an increase from the previous week's estimate of 6.46 million tons [2] - As of the week ending October 17, the deliverable inventory of corn at CBOT was reported at 15.067 million bushels, a 23.80% increase from the previous week’s 12.17 million bushels, but a 37.27% decrease from the same period last year when it was 24.019 million bushels [2] - The Executive Director of the International Sugar Organization (ISO) stated that U.S. government subsidies to corn growers distort U.S. corn ethanol export prices, impacting market competition [2]
结算业务
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-23 01:04
Core Insights - The article discusses the pricing, margin calculations, delivery methods, and transaction fees for monthly average futures of three chemical products: Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE), Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC), and Polypropylene (PP) Pricing and Settlement - The daily settlement price for monthly average futures is aligned with the corresponding physical futures price during ordinary months, while in the expiration month, it is calculated as a weighted arithmetic average of the prices from the traded days and remaining days [1] - For example, the settlement price for L2504F on March 6, 2025, is calculated using the prices from March 1-3 and the remaining 20 days [1] Margin Calculations - The margin ratio for the three chemical products' monthly average futures generally matches that of the corresponding physical futures contracts, and adjustments to the physical contracts' margin will also affect the monthly average futures [1] Delivery and Settlement Price Calculation - The delivery method for the three chemical products' monthly average futures is cash settlement, with the settlement price being the arithmetic average of the daily settlement prices of the corresponding physical futures in the month prior to the contract month [2] Transaction Fees - Initial transaction fees are set at 1 yuan per contract, with a reduced fee of 0.5 yuan for hedging transactions, subject to adjustments based on market conditions [2] - Delivery fees are also initially set at 1 yuan per contract, with a waiver of delivery fees until December 31, 2025, for the three chemical products' monthly average futures, except for designated high-frequency traders [2] Margin Discounts - The three chemical products' monthly average futures contracts are eligible for combined margin discounts, with specific details available on the Dalian Commodity Exchange's website after the contracts are listed [2]
芝加哥商业交易所:10.21 金银铜成交量及未平仓数据变动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-22 06:20
Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the trading volume and open interest data for gold, silver, and copper futures on October 21, as reported by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [1] Group 2 - Gold futures trading volume reached 577,546 contracts, an increase of 209,220 contracts from the previous data [1] - Open interest for gold contracts was 473,401, a decrease of 2,537 contracts from the previous data [1] - Silver futures trading volume was 171,880 contracts, an increase of 60,619 contracts from the previous data [1] - Open interest for silver contracts was 169,723, a decrease of 2,560 contracts from the previous data [1] - Copper futures trading volume was 61,583 contracts, an increase of 18,516 contracts from the previous data [1] - Open interest for copper contracts was 258,662, an increase of 2,606 contracts from the previous data [1]
CME原油、天然气:10月21日成交及持仓量有增减
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-22 06:20
Core Insights - On October 21, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange released trading volume and open interest data for WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and natural gas [1] WTI Crude Oil - WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 787,121 contracts, a decrease of 18,139 contracts from the previous period [1] - Open interest for WTI crude oil was 1,997,905 contracts, a decrease of 10,297 contracts from the previous period [1] Brent Crude Oil - Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 160,767 contracts, an increase of 37,363 contracts from the previous period [1] - Open interest for Brent crude oil was 220,859 contracts, an increase of 822 contracts from the previous period [1] Natural Gas - Natural gas futures trading volume was 642,779 contracts, a decrease of 154,394 contracts from the previous period [1] - Open interest for natural gas was 1,682,050 contracts, a decrease of 24,242 contracts from the previous period [1]
沪金、沪银、原油等期货:10月21日夜盘涨跌不一
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-21 13:53
Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market opened with mixed results on the night of October 21, indicating volatility in commodity prices [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Gold futures (沪金) decreased by 2.89% [1] - Silver futures (沪银) fell by 3.89% [1] - Coking coal (焦煤) dropped by over 1% [1] - Iron ore (铁矿) increased by 0.46% [1] - Crude oil (原油) rose by 1.19% [1] - Fuel oil (燃油) gained 1.06% [1] - Rubber (橡胶) saw an increase of 0.8% [1]
国内期货夜盘开盘 沪金跌逾2%
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-10-21 13:05
人民财讯10月21日电,国内期货夜盘开盘,低硫燃油、原油、燃油涨逾1%,甲醇、橡胶等上涨;沪银 跌逾3%,沪金跌逾2%,焦炭、焦煤跌逾1%。 ...