Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Meituan-W (03690) [2] Core Insights - Meituan is a leading local business platform in China, actively exploring new business increments while facing short-term profit pressure due to increased competition in its core local commerce segment [7][19] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, which is expected to significantly broaden its Total Addressable Market (TAM) and create structural growth opportunities for future profitability [7][22] - Despite short-term losses, the long-term value of Meituan remains intact due to its established competitive advantages and operational efficiencies [7][30] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Meituan, founded in March 2010, has evolved into a comprehensive platform offering various local services, including food delivery, hotel bookings, and travel services [10] - The revenue structure for 2024 is projected to consist of 74% from core local commerce and 26% from new businesses [13] Q3 2025 Performance Review - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but below market expectations [18] - The core local commerce segment generated revenue of 67.4 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased subsidies impacting delivery service revenue [19] Competitive Landscape - The report highlights the competitive pressures from rivals like JD and Alibaba, which have intensified the subsidy wars in the food delivery market [24] - Meituan's operational efficiency and established market presence provide a strong defense against these competitive threats [25] International Expansion - Meituan's overseas expansion, particularly through its Keeta brand, has shown promising results in markets like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with plans to further penetrate the Middle East and Latin America [22][29] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 366.2 billion, 417.4 billion, and 468.9 billion yuan, respectively, with expected adjusted net profits of -17.4 billion, 17.1 billion, and 40.3 billion yuan [30][31] - The report emphasizes that while short-term losses are anticipated, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the company's solid market position and competitive advantages [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [9] Core Insights - In Q3 FY2025, Meituan's revenue reached 954.9 billion CNY, which was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 974.7 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%. The adjusted net loss was 160.1 billion CNY, exceeding the expected loss of 139.6 billion CNY [6][10] - The report highlights that the competitive pressure in the food delivery sector has peaked, and as subsidies narrow, the focus will shift towards user retention and brand recognition, which are crucial for long-term repurchase rather than new customer acquisition [2][10] - The report projects Meituan's overall revenue for 2025-2027 to be 3,640.67 billion CNY, 4,084.78 billion CNY, and 4,551.56 billion CNY, with adjusted net profits of -115.25 billion CNY, 215.34 billion CNY, and 445.67 billion CNY respectively [2][10] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Core local business revenue was 674 billion CNY, below the consensus estimate of 692 billion CNY, with an operating loss of 141 billion CNY compared to the expected loss of 126 billion CNY. The operating profit margin was -20.9% [10] - New business revenue was 280 billion CNY, slightly below the expected 286 billion CNY, with a year-on-year operating loss increase of 24.5% to 13 billion CNY [10] Food Delivery and Flash Purchase - The core local business saw a significant operating loss of approximately 191 billion CNY in Q3, with the average order value (AOV) for high-priced orders (above 15 CNY) accounting for two-thirds of the gross transaction value (GTV) [10] - The report emphasizes that user stickiness and brand recognition are essential for the platform's capabilities, and future competition will likely focus on operational efficiency and service quality [10] In-store Dining and Travel - The in-store dining and travel segment contributed approximately 180 billion CNY in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. The operating profit was 51 billion CNY, with a profit margin of 28% [10] New Business Initiatives - Meituan's new business, Keeta, officially launched operations in Brazil, with expectations of manageable investment levels. The report anticipates that Keeta could contribute significantly to Meituan's GTV in the long term [10]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba disclosed in its mid-term report for the fiscal year 2026 that it sold 85% of its subsidiary Trendyol GO, which operates local life services in Turkey, for approximately $700 million (RMB 5 billion) [1] Group 1: Sale Details - The sale agreement was established in May 2025, and the cash consideration was completed within the six-month period ending September 30, 2025 [1] - The proceeds from the sale generated approximately RMB 6 billion, which was included in the unaudited condensed consolidated income statement for the six months ending September 30, 2025, primarily considering cash received, the net asset book value of Trendyol GO, and the fair value of the retained 15% equity [1] Group 2: Background Information - Uber announced in May 2025 that it would acquire 85% of Trendyol GO for about $700 million in cash [1] - Trendyol GO was established in 2010 and is operated by the Turkish e-commerce platform Trendyol, which is majority-owned by Alibaba [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 135.66 HKD, based on a reasonable valuation of 829.1 billion HKD [3][12]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant competition, leading to a focus on high-value orders and a prolonged period of losses. The report suggests that the worst phase of losses may have passed, but the ongoing competition will likely extend the duration of losses [9][12]. - The company's Q3 performance showed a substantial increase in order volume driven by subsidies, but this has negatively impacted average order value (AOV), resulting in a revenue decline of approximately 12% year-on-year [9]. - The report highlights that the company's market share in high-value orders (AOV above 15 HKD) is over two-thirds, indicating a strategic focus on maintaining this segment despite competitive pressures [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 276,745 million HKD - 2024: 337,592 million HKD - 2025: 366,600 million HKD - 2026: 406,302 million HKD - 2027: 462,787 million HKD - The year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline significantly, with 2025 showing only an 8.59% increase [4][16]. - The company is projected to incur losses in the coming years, with net profit estimates for 2025 at -19,633 million HKD and -25,640 million HKD for 2026 [4][16]. Segment Valuation - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, estimating the following for 2026: - Delivery and Flash Purchase: 2,097 billion CNY in revenue, valued at 4,516 billion HKD - In-store and Hotel Travel: 170 billion CNY in after-tax operating profit, valued at 2,437 billion HKD - New Business: 1,216 billion CNY in revenue, valued at 1,338 billion HKD - The total estimated market value for the company is 8,291 billion HKD [11][12].

Core Insights - Meituan reported a significant net loss in Q3 2025, marking the first operational loss in its core business in three years, with adjusted net loss reaching 16.01 billion RMB compared to a profit of 12.83 billion RMB in the same period last year [2][5][7] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 95.49 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of only 2.0% [2][4] - The net profit margin fell to -16.75%, with a substantial decline from the previous year's profit [2] - The core local commerce segment generated revenue of 67.45 billion RMB, down 2.8% year-on-year, resulting in an operational loss of 14.07 billion RMB [4][5] Segment Analysis - Meituan's delivery service revenue decreased by 17.1% to 23.02 billion RMB, while commission revenue grew by only 1.1% to 26.38 billion RMB [5] - Online marketing services revenue increased by 5.7% to 14.19 billion RMB, and other services saw a significant growth of 84.9% to 3.86 billion RMB [5] Cost Structure - Sales costs surged by 23.7% to 70.31 billion RMB, accounting for 73.6% of total revenue, an increase of 12.9 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] - Sales and marketing expenses rose by 91% to 34.27 billion RMB, representing 35.9% of total revenue, up from 19.2% [5][6] Market Position - Despite the losses, Meituan maintained a leading market share in high-value orders, capturing over two-thirds of the market for orders above 15 RMB and over 70% for orders above 30 RMB [7] - Meituan's market share in instant transactions was 47.1%, with a reported loss of 20% market share compared to previous periods [7] User Metrics - The number of monthly transaction users for Meituan's food delivery service reached a historical high, with total transaction users exceeding 800 million in the past 12 months [7] New Business Developments - The new business segment reported a revenue increase of 15.9% to 28.04 billion RMB, although operating losses increased by 24.5% to 1.3 billion RMB [8] - Meituan's Keeta business is expanding globally, with operations in Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia showing steady growth and improved operational efficiency [8] Cash Reserves - As of September 30, 2025, Meituan held cash and cash equivalents of 99.2 billion RMB, along with short-term investments totaling 42.1 billion RMB, amounting to a total cash reserve of 141.3 billion RMB [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Meituan's food delivery losses have peaked, and there is a focus on value recovery amid dynamic competition [3][4] - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4%, but incurred an operating loss of 19.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 244% [3][4] - The core local business revenue decreased by 3% to 67.4 billion yuan, with significant losses attributed to intensified market competition and increased promotional expenses [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights that Meituan's food delivery business saw record high daily active users and monthly transaction users, indicating a robust growth in core user base [5] - Meituan's flash purchase business revenue grew by 33% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with significant increases in user transaction frequency and average order value [5][6] - The hotel and travel business revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with over 200 service categories covered, and the platform has accumulated over 25 billion real consumption reviews [6] Group 3 - The report projects that Meituan's revenue for 2025-2027 will be 365.4 billion, 412.0 billion, and 467.9 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates of -18.4 billion, +14.5 billion, and +37.8 billion yuan [7] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Meituan, with a target market value of 737 billion yuan for 2026, corresponding to a target price of 121 yuan per share [7] Group 4 - The report on Li Auto indicates that Q3 2025 revenue was 27.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.2%, with a net loss of 6.24 billion yuan [18][19] - Li Auto's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 16.3%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, with vehicle gross margin at 15.5% [19][20] - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7% to 37% [20][21]

Core Insights - Meituan reported Q3 2025 revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a 2% year-on-year increase, demonstrating resilience in its core local commerce segment despite intense industry competition [2] - The number of annual transacting users surpassed 800 million, indicating a broad consumer base and enhanced network effects on the platform [3] - CEO Wang Xing emphasized the unsustainability of the food delivery price war, asserting that it does not create value for the industry [2][3] User Growth and Engagement - The milestone of over 800 million annual transacting users reflects Meituan's extensive market coverage and improved user engagement, with monthly transaction users reaching a historical high [3] - The user structure is continuously optimizing, with more low-frequency users transitioning to high-frequency users, significantly increasing consumption frequency and user stickiness [3] Competitive Positioning - Meituan maintained a strong competitive position in the food delivery market, with a market share recovery, especially in the mid-to-high price order segment, where it holds over 70% of orders above 30 yuan [6] - The company achieved a favorable "battle loss ratio" of 1:2 to 1:3 compared to competitors, showcasing its operational efficiency and resource management [3] Instant Retail Performance - Meituan's instant retail segment, Meituan Flash, continues to lead the industry, with new user growth and increased transaction frequency among core users [4] - The peak daily order volume for instant retail exceeded 150 million in July, with an average delivery time of just 34 minutes, highlighting its competitive fulfillment capabilities [5] International Expansion - Meituan's international strategy has made significant strides, with the Keeta business in Hong Kong achieving profitability ahead of schedule and expanding into new markets like Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, and Brazil [6][7] - The company remains focused on long-term strategic investments to enhance user value and maintain customer loyalty amid competition [7] Ecosystem and Merchant Support - Meituan has increased its investment in rider welfare and merchant support, launching initiatives like the "Prosperity Plan" with 2.8 billion yuan allocated to assist merchants [8] - The company is also enhancing food safety measures through initiatives like the "Bright Kitchen" program, encouraging transparency and consumer trust [9] Technological Advancements - Meituan's R&D investment reached 6.9 billion yuan, a 31% year-on-year increase, with significant advancements in AI applications and logistics technology, including drone delivery services [11] - The company is leveraging technology to improve operational efficiency and enhance service offerings for both merchants and consumers [11] Future Outlook - As industry competition stabilizes, Meituan's long-term investments in user scale, technology, and ecosystem development are expected to translate into sustained competitive advantages [10]

Core Viewpoint - The market's focus on Meituan has shifted from short-term losses to the depth of its long-term competitive moat, with Goldman Sachs highlighting its superior unit economics and resilient overseas business despite fierce competition [1][3][19] Market Transition - The debate has moved from short-term subsidy wars in the food delivery sector to assessing Meituan's defensive capabilities and long-term profitability against strong competitors like Alibaba and Douyin [4] - Investors are now more concerned about the sustainability of Meituan's competitive advantages rather than when losses will peak [3][4] Financial Performance - Meituan's adjusted operating loss for Q3 was 17.5 billion RMB, better than Goldman Sachs' expectation of 18.8 billion RMB, with losses in instant retail and new businesses narrowing more than anticipated [6] - Despite a negative initial market reaction, several positive signals were noted, including the peak of losses in instant retail and expectations for reduced losses in Q4 and early next year [6][11] Unit Economics - Meituan's unit economics remain strong, with an estimated loss of approximately 2.6 RMB per order in Q3, compared to Alibaba's 5.2 RMB per order [7][14] Overseas Business - Meituan's overseas brand, Keeta, achieved monthly profitability ahead of schedule, demonstrating strong execution capabilities [8] Scenario Analysis - **Base Case**: Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of 120 HKD, projecting a 17% upside, but has lowered long-term profit expectations for the food delivery business due to increased competition [9][10] - **Optimistic Scenario**: A target price of 152 HKD could be achieved if Meituan's competitive moat remains intact and its capital strength allows it to outlast competitors [12][13][14] - **Pessimistic Scenario**: A potential drop to 77 HKD could occur if competitors continue aggressive spending, leading to sustained pressure on Meituan's profitability [16][17][18] Competitive Landscape - The competition is intensifying, with concerns that Alibaba may continue to invest heavily in its food delivery business, potentially impacting Meituan's market share and profitability [5][16] - There are fears that Meituan's in-store, hotel, and tourism business could face similar challenges as the e-commerce sector, with new entrants eroding market share [18] Future Outlook - Despite facing unprecedented competition and short-term profitability pressures, Meituan's leadership position, strong execution, and significantly adjusted stock price suggest it still holds investment value [19]

Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 earnings report highlights its resilience amid fierce competition in the food delivery market, maintaining a leading position in high-value orders despite significant losses [1][2][3] - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Meituan, citing its strong execution capabilities and the current attractive stock price as key investment factors [1] User Metrics - Meituan's transaction user base has surpassed 800 million, with daily active users (DAU) increasing by over 20% year-on-year, and monthly transaction users for food delivery reaching a historical high [1][3] - The company holds over 70% market share in orders exceeding 30 yuan and over 66% in orders above 15 yuan, indicating strong market dominance in higher-priced segments [2][3] Financial Performance - In Q3, Meituan's core local business revenue (food delivery + in-store) was 67.4 billion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous year, despite a slowdown in service marketing revenue growth [3] - Adjusted net loss for Q3 was 16 billion yuan, primarily due to losses in the core local business, but this loss is considered manageable compared to competitors [2][3] New Business Developments - Meituan's instant retail business has shown significant growth, with new user acquisition and transaction frequency both increasing [5] - The company has made notable progress in international markets, with its Keeta business achieving monthly profitability in Hong Kong ahead of schedule [5] Ecosystem and Community Support - Meituan has implemented comprehensive support for delivery riders, including pension insurance, welfare benefits, and housing support, covering over a million riders and their families [7][8] - The company has launched initiatives to assist merchants in navigating competitive pressures, including a 2.8 billion yuan support plan and upgrades to its merchant evaluation system [7] Technological Advancements - Meituan has invested 6.9 billion yuan in R&D in Q3, a 31% increase year-on-year, focusing on AI tools and applications to enhance service efficiency [5][6] - The company has expanded its drone delivery services, achieving over 670,000 commercial orders by September, showcasing its commitment to technological innovation [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance was below expectations, with total revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 2.0%, and an adjusted net profit of -16.01 billion yuan, which was lower than Bloomberg consensus estimates [7] - The core local business turned from profit to loss due to intensified competition, while new business losses improved [7] - The report anticipates that Q3 represented the peak of losses, with expectations for marginal improvement in Q4, although competitive strategies need to be monitored [7] - The company is expected to continue strengthening its supply side, user experience, and membership benefits, maintaining its market share and user engagement advantages [7] - New business losses were better than expected, with strong growth in grocery retail businesses like Xiaoxiang Supermarket and Keeta, which are expanding globally [7] - The adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down significantly due to the impact of competition on profits, but the long-term profit recovery and overseas expansion potential remain promising [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for Meituan are as follows: 2023A: 276.75 billion yuan, 2024A: 337.59 billion yuan, 2025E: 364.53 billion yuan, 2026E: 415.41 billion yuan, 2027E: 478.47 billion yuan [1] - The adjusted net profit for 2025E is projected at -21.57 billion yuan, with a recovery to 19.63 billion yuan by 2027E [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025E is projected at -3.53 yuan per share, with a recovery to 3.21 yuan per share by 2027E [1]