国海证券指出，反内卷有望重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望使全球化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓。中国 化工行业具有充沛的经营活动现金流量净额，一旦扩张放缓，潜在股息率将大幅提升，有望实现从吞金 兽到摇钱树的转变；同时，供给端的改变将带来景气度的止跌回升，化工标的有望兼具高弹性和高股息 的优势。重点关注石油化工、煤化工、有机硅、磷化工、草甘膦等。 每日经济新闻 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.39%，石油石化行业占比为32.71%。政策针对化工行业的"反内卷"措 施持续加码，成为板块走强的核心支撑。 截至12月4日9点52分，石化ETF（159731）涨0.36%。持仓股藏格矿业、金发科技、中国石油等涨幅居 前。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF连续9个交易日获得资金净流入，合计"吸金"2550万元。石化ETF 最新份额达2.42亿份，最新规模2.02亿元，均创成立以来新高。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Not clearly rated - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating short - term balance and poor operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: なな☆ - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: 女女女 - Ethylene Glycol: 女女女 - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ななな - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ななな - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different products having their own supply - demand relationships and price trends. Some products are in a state of supply - demand balance, while others face supply or demand pressures. Overall, the market is affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][5] Summary According to Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate widely, with good downstream demand and rising offers. Plastic and polypropylene futures oscillate. Polyethylene has limited market drivers and a weakening cost - support. Polypropylene may see a slight increase in production as some maintenance devices restart [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures are in a low - level oscillation, with a slight rebound in East China's spot and rising buying interest in Shandong. There is a downward pressure due to high arrival expectations and falling demand. Styrene futures rise, supported by an improved supply - demand structure [3] Polyester - PX and PTA fall as the impact of the blending market weakens. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, while PTA may continue with cost - driven logic. Ethylene glycol has a weak medium - term outlook but limited downward space. Short - fiber has a relatively good long - term supply - demand pattern, while bottle - grade PET has a weakening demand and over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures oscillate and correct. The port inventory may remain high, and the market may continue to oscillate in a range. Urea futures rise, and production enterprises are destocking. However, the overall supply is still loose, and the downstream chasing sentiment may decline [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. Export may improve, but domestic demand is weak. Supply pressure may ease, and it is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda continues to decline due to high supply, low demand, and still - profitable conditions [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash falls. The industry is destocking, and the supply is expected to oscillate at a high level. The demand for heavy soda is shrinking. Glass futures are weak, with low demand and a need for further cold - repair to drive up prices [8]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力合约收盘价1687元/吨，微幅上涨0.3%。现货市场稳中 幅 波动运行，主流地区现货价格波动幅 -10 +20元/吨。昨日山东、河南地区市场价格均为 | | | | 1680元/吨，日环比分别下调10元/吨、维持稳定。基本面来看，近期部分气头企业开 降负荷 | | | | ，尿素供应水平 步回 ，昨日行业日产量19.56万吨，日环比下降0.34万吨。需求端跟进情绪 | | | 尿素 | 在价格 续上涨后明 转弱，昨日主流地区现货产销率回 至5% 90%区间，仅个别地区产销 | 偏弱震荡 | | | 率超过100%。短期现货市场情绪回 但企业 行 单为主，出货压力 时不大。后续尿素刚 | | | | 需及储备需求仍存，需求支撑仍在。整体来看，近期尿素基本面多 因素均有，上下游产业 | | | | 也在气头企业开工下降与需求之间持续博弈。预计尿素期货盘面延续宽幅震荡 势，关注主 | | | | 力合约 仓 月 ...

产业蝶变：从"黑煤"到"绿金"的高质量跃迁 在陕西奥维乾元化工有限公司中央控制室里，一块块电子屏幕上实时跳动着生产数据，工作人员只需通 过智能终端轻点操作，便可远程调控设备启停，用"数字化大脑"替代"传统人工巡检"，使煤化工生产既 精准又高效。 "十四五"期间，府谷始终将能源产业升级作为发展重点，全力攻坚能源结构优化与产业转型，以创新动 能赋能产业发展。曾经，这里的煤炭大多以原煤形式直接外销，附加值低、资源利用率不高；如今，通 过不断升级技术、延伸产业链，煤炭实现了从"卖原料"到"卖产品"再到"卖技术"的跨越。依托秦创原 （府谷）创新促进中心等平台，全球首创金属镁冶炼精准脱硝等关键技术，发布8项镁行业标准，培育 高新技术企业40户、科技型中小企业109家，成功获评全省创新型试点县，越来越多企业摆脱"资源依 赖"老路，走上"技术引领"新途，仅陕西奥维乾元化工有限公司，五年间新增专利2项，昔日"黑煤"彻底 变成带动县域经济高质量发展的"绿金"。 来源：环球网 "十四五"期间，府谷地区生产总值成功突破千亿元大关，跻身全国千亿县区行列，县域经济综合实力稳 居全省前列；规模以上工业增加值年均增长6.1%，总量突破750 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The supply is at a high level with the daily output of 19.9 million tons on December 1st, a daily decrease of 0.44 million tons. Demand shows regional differences, with sales - to - production ratios ranging from 70% - 95% to 120% - 150% in different areas. The start - up rate of gas - based enterprises and demand will continue to compete, and attention should be paid to the start - up changes of gas - based enterprises, spot trading volume, and overall market sentiment [1]. - The soda ash market is expected to have a bottom - strengthening and wide - range fluctuation. The supply is gradually recovering with the industry's start - up rate reaching 80.65% on December 1st, a daily increase of 5 percentage points. Demand is mixed, with some downstream having low - price restocking needs, but the declining capacity of float glass is not conducive to rigid demand. The market needs more drivers for a trend change, and attention should be paid to production levels, product - output rhythm from Alxa, downstream purchasing rhythm, and related market trends [1]. - The glass market is expected to have a short - term bottom - strengthening and wide - range fluctuation. The supply is decreasing with the daily output dropping to 15.5 million tons on December 1st, and there are still plans for cold - repair of production lines. Demand remains positive but with a slightly weakened amplitude, and the sales - to - production ratio is in the range of 90% - 100%. Attention should be paid to the decline in supply, spot trading volume, and overall market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On December 1st, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 7,937, an increase of 350 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 762 [4]. - On December 1st, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.9 million tons, a decrease of 0.44 million tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.45 million tons compared to the same period last year. The start - up rate was 82.28%, a 0.67 - percentage - point increase compared to 81.61% in the same period last year [4]. - On December 1st, the spot prices of small - particle urea in different regions were: Shandong 1,690 yuan/ton (+20), Henan 1,680 yuan/ton (+20), Hebei 1,710 yuan/ton (+30), Anhui 1,680 yuan/ton (+30), Jiangsu 1,680 yuan/ton (+20), and Shanxi 1,550 yuan/ton (+20) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On December 1st, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 5,529, a decrease of 50 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 2,018. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [6]. - On December 1st, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were provided, such as North China (light 1,250 yuan/ton, heavy 1,300 yuan/ton), Central China (light 1,150 yuan/ton, heavy 1,250 yuan/ton), etc. [6]. - On December 1st, the capacity utilization rate of the soda ash industry was 80.65%, compared to 75.27% on the previous working day [7]. - On December 1st, the average price of the float glass market was 1,100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton, and the daily output was 15.5 million tons, a daily decrease of 0.22 million tons [7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and between different commodities such as urea - methanol and glass - soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [9][10][18][19] Research Team Members Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won many awards [22]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass and has won multiple honors [22]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties like cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has won relevant titles [22].

Core Viewpoint - The research team from Kunming University of Science and Technology has developed a new catalyst with "dynamic shape-selective effect" for the deep removal of sulfur compounds in industrial exhaust gases, achieving a residual sulfur content below five parts per billion, thus providing an innovative and efficient solution for green governance and resource utilization of industrial emissions [1][2]. Group 1: Technological Breakthroughs - The new catalyst utilizes a manganese-doped iron oxide synthesis method, creating a unique "iron-oxygen-manganese" structure that enhances catalytic performance for sulfur compound conversion [2]. - The catalyst demonstrates a removal rate of over 99.99% for typical sulfur compounds such as hydrogen sulfide, methyl mercaptan, and dimethyl sulfide, significantly exceeding current national emission standards [2]. Group 2: Economic and Environmental Impact - The technology allows for the targeted conversion of sulfur compounds into valuable by-products like sulfur, sulfuric acid, or high-purity sulfur, achieving a purity of 99.95% for sulfur, which can be sold as a chemical raw material [2]. - The research team is actively collaborating with multiple chemical enterprises to accelerate the industrial application of this technology, aiming to help companies meet environmental goals while achieving economic benefits [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the significant progress in major infrastructure projects in Shaanxi, which are crucial for driving economic and social development [3][4][5] - Key projects include the completion of the Xi'an to Shiyan high-speed railway and the ongoing construction of the Hanzhou-Mei Expressway, which is expected to enhance regional transportation [6][7] - The Shaanxi government has established a task force to ensure the timely progress of these projects, resulting in a stable increase in fixed asset investment, with a 2.9% growth in the first three quarters, surpassing the national average [7][13] Group 2 - The Shaanxi Coal Group's Yulin Chemical project is advancing, utilizing local coal resources to produce high-value materials, with an expected annual revenue of 134 billion yuan and profits exceeding 30 billion yuan [4][5] - The establishment of the PepsiCo production base in Shaanxi, with an investment of approximately 1.3 billion yuan, showcases the region's commitment to attracting high-quality projects and enhancing production capabilities [8][9][10] - The province has implemented reforms to streamline project approvals, significantly reducing the time required for necessary permits, thus fostering a more conducive environment for investment [12][13] Group 3 - Shaanxi's focus on attracting investment and developing key industrial chains has led to the establishment of numerous high-quality projects, contributing to the province's economic growth [14][16] - The province has seen a 7% increase in social capital investment, with private investment growing by 9.8%, indicating a robust investment climate [15] - The government has secured substantial funding for project construction, including 23.52 billion yuan from central budget investments, which is a record high, ensuring financial support for ongoing and future projects [17]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Baotailong New Materials Co., Ltd., is acquiring a 2.8258% stake in its subsidiary, Shuangyashan Baotailong Investment Co., Ltd., from Beijing Cuishi Investment Center (Limited Partnership) for RMB 15 million, which will result in the company holding 100% ownership of the subsidiary [2][6][8]. Transaction Overview - The acquisition is aimed at optimizing the company's industrial layout and integrating its assets [2][8]. - The transaction does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring as defined by regulations [2][8]. - No board or shareholder approval is required for this transaction [3][8]. Transaction Details - The stake being acquired is valued at its original investment amount of RMB 15 million [5][8]. - The payment will be made from the company's own funds and is to be completed within seven working days after the registration of the share transfer [2][8]. Counterparty Information - The transferor, Beijing Cuishi Investment Center (Limited Partnership), was established on November 23, 2011, and has a registered capital of RMB 10 million [3][4]. - The major shareholder of Beijing Cuishi is Cao Rihui, holding 90% of the shares [4]. Target Company Information - The target company, Shuangyashan Baotailong Investment Co., Ltd., was established on January 19, 2012, with a registered capital of RMB 530.82 million [6]. - The company primarily engages in investment and management of coal, coal chemical, and building materials projects [6]. Impact of the Transaction - The acquisition will enhance the company's asset integration and will not adversely affect its operational cash flow or financial status [8]. - The transaction is expected to maintain the company's independence and protect the interests of all shareholders, particularly minority shareholders [8].

Core Viewpoint - The new economic strategy for Shaanxi Province emphasizes the dual-pole development model, positioning Yulin as a core growth pole alongside Xi'an, aiming to optimize regional economic layout and enhance collaborative development among different areas [1][2][3]. Economic Structure and Growth - Shaanxi's economy is divided into three distinct regions: Guanzhong, Shaanbei, and Shannan, each with varying economic levels and industrial structures. Guanzhong is focused on advanced manufacturing, Shaanbei on coal chemical industries, and Shannan on green ecological industries [2]. - Xi'an, the capital, has historically dominated the economy, contributing 37.5% to the province's GDP in 2024, with a total of 13,317.78 billion yuan [2]. - Yulin's GDP reached 7,548.68 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 6% year-on-year, making it the largest non-provincial capital city in Central and Western China [3]. Industrial Development - Yulin's industrial output value for 2023 was 8,441 billion yuan, with an increase of 5%, representing 45.9% of the province's total industrial output, maintaining its position as the top industrial city in Shaanxi for 17 consecutive years [3][6]. - The coal chemical industry in Yulin is recognized as world-class, contributing significantly to the region's economic growth and positioning Yulin as a key player in the national economy [3][4]. Strategic Importance - The elevation of Yulin's status aligns with national strategies for regional development, particularly in the Yellow River basin, where Yulin is seen as a core city for ecological protection and high-quality development [4][5]. - The city is part of the Huobaoer Yulin urban cluster, which is crucial for the coordinated development of the Yellow River "几"字弯 area [5]. Infrastructure and Future Plans - Despite its economic growth, Yulin faces challenges in transportation infrastructure, which limits its role as a regional hub. The city plans to enhance its transportation network, including high-speed rail connections to improve accessibility [6]. - The government aims to transform Yulin from a resource-based city to a regional center by diversifying its industrial base and improving infrastructure [6].

Core Insights - The industrial powerhouse of Shaanxi Province is shifting from Xi'an to Yulin, which is now recognized as a core growth pole alongside Xi'an in the province's economic strategy for the next five years [1][2][3] Economic Structure - Shaanxi's economy is divided into three distinct regions: Guanzhong, Shaanbei, and Shaannan, each with different economic development levels and industrial structures. Shaanbei focuses on coal chemical industries, Guanzhong on advanced manufacturing, and Shaannan on green ecological industries [2] - Xi'an has historically been the economic center, contributing 37.5% to the province's GDP in 2024, with a total GDP of 13,317.78 billion yuan [2][3] Yulin's Economic Growth - Yulin's GDP reached 7,548.68 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 6% year-on-year, making it the largest non-provincial capital city in Central and Western China [3] - Yulin's industrial output value in 2023 was 8,441 billion yuan, with an industrial added value accounting for 45.9% of the province's total, maintaining its position as the top industrial city in Shaanxi for 17 consecutive years [3] Strategic Development - The Shaanxi provincial government aims to implement a "dual-pole" strategy to balance economic development and reduce reliance on Xi'an, with Yulin positioned as a significant growth pole [1][4] - Yulin is also seen as a key player in the national strategy for ecological protection and high-quality development along the Yellow River, particularly in the "Yellow River '几'字弯" area [5] Infrastructure Challenges - Despite Yulin's economic growth, it faces challenges in transportation infrastructure, which is currently inadequate for its economic status. The city is working on improving its transportation network to enhance regional connectivity [6] - Plans are in place to accelerate the construction of high-speed rail networks and improve interconnectivity with surrounding urban areas, aiming to establish Yulin as a national transportation hub [6]