一轮牛市，人们只会记得最后的"疯"，很少有人记得它之前往往是漫长、枯燥、甚至伴随质疑声的"慢"。 2015年的疯牛，真正的起点在2013年； 2021年大家口口声声说是牛市，但上证指数全年几乎横着走，赚钱效应主要来自中小盘和赛道股。 今天的A股，又一次站在类似的阶段： 指数不算耀眼，情绪时冷时热，但结构已经发生了关键变化。 我的核心判断是： 这轮牛市尚未结束，仍处在从"慢热"走向"发酵"的阶段，未来3个月，A股有较大概率走出类似2014年底那种"先挖坑、再 拉升"的节奏，春节前后或是情绪爆点。 下面我们从资金、政策、结构和时间节奏四个维度，把这件事讲清楚。 一、情绪冰冷，往往不是牛市结束，而是主升浪的酝酿期 很多人这两年最大的感受是： "指数没涨多少，我的账户怎么反而更难做了？" "明明新闻天天说利好，怎么盘面老是阴晴不定？" 如果只盯着指数，你确实很难判断牛熊。 从几个关键"现象"看，目前更符合"牛市中段，而非尾声"的特征： 散户参与度并不高 新开户数据温和，没有出现2015年那种开户潮。 银行存款搬家迹象有限，居民资金并未大规模杀入股市。 社交网络上"炒股一夜翻倍"的故事极少，讨论热度远未"泛滥"。 场内 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market in 2025 is characterized by a split sentiment, with the index near a ten-year high at around 4000 points, yet many investors feel confused and indifferent despite the apparent bullishness [5][21][22] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a surge in interest in humanoid robots and smart manufacturing, driven by Tesla's advancements, which highlighted China's strong manufacturing capabilities [7][9] - The second quarter shifted focus to innovative drugs in the Hong Kong market, marking a significant re-evaluation of the value of Chinese R&D capabilities, particularly as global pharmaceutical companies faced patent cliffs [10][12] - In the third quarter, the narrative turned to the return of computing power and a shift in investor bias, as the AI hardware sector experienced a significant valuation reassessment due to increased demand from major tech companies [14][18] Group 2 - The market's main themes throughout the year—robots, innovative drugs, and computing power—were initially ignited by overseas demand, with domestic industries amplifying this momentum [20][22] - The current market environment is described as a "not present" bull market, where excitement stems from foreign developments rather than domestic innovations, leading to a sense of detachment among local investors [23][25] - Various investment strategies are being employed to navigate the current chaotic market, with a multi-strategy approach proving effective in maintaining stable returns amidst volatility [26][29]

这场布局的最终结局，堪称科技与能源的双向奔赴，有趣又解气。未来几年，成都的机架规模将突破80 万个，成为西部最大的算力集群，再通过骨干光纤网络连接重庆、西安等西部城市，形成庞大的"西部 算力池"。西部用廉价绿电训练AI大模型，东部凭借人口密集、市场广阔的优势直接应用成果，完美解 决了地域资源错配的问题。反观美国，不仅电网基建老旧，765kV输电走廊仅能支持6-7GW负荷，还面 临公用事业公司不愿签署长期购电协议的困境，科技巨头自建离网电力的进度也屡屡滞后。当中国的算 力中心用上0.1元/度的绿电，美国同行还在为0.7元/度的电费发愁时，成本差距带来的竞争力鸿沟将难 以逾越。更讽刺的是，美国因芯片制裁给中国算力制造的硬件成本压力，也被绿电的低价优势轻松对冲 ——搭载国产芯片的服务器，即便硬件成本高20%，但全年运营成本能降低30%，整体成本反而比美国 服务器低10%。届时，无论是大模型研发、自动驾驶，还是数字经济、智能制造，中国都能借助全球最 廉价、最清洁、规模最大的算力资源实现快速发展，曾经的"赶超美国"将不再是空谈，而是水到渠成的 结果。 "运筹帷幄之中，决胜千里之外"，国家层面的战略布局，往往藏在看似寻常 ...

中信证券在在11月21日发布的2026年展望中，提出A股将迈向"低波动慢牛"，"全球敞口"成为研判核心变量。报告指出，高境外敞口企业贡献了全A非金融 板块39%的利润和35%的市值，足以撬动整体行情。"十五五"期间中企在全球价值链中的定价权有望提升，成为慢牛基础。 来源：视觉中国 来源：视觉中国 11月21日，A股三大指数低开低走，其中上证指数跌破3900点，创业板指跌破3000点。 截至收盘，上证综指跌2.45%，报3834.89点；科创50指数跌3.19%，报1285.83点；深证成指跌3.41%，报12538.07点；创业板指跌4.02%，报2920.08点。沪深 两市成交额约19656.61亿元，较前一个交易日放量约2574.72亿元。全市场354只股票上涨、5072只股票下跌，其中33只涨停、99只跌停。 具体来看，中船系板块活跃，久之洋20CM涨停，中船防务涨超6%。电池板块全线走弱，天华新能、星源材质、宏工科技等跌超10%，德新科技跌停。能源 金属大幅调整，赣锋锂业、天齐锂业等数只个股跌停。硅能源板块调整，大为股份、晨光新材跌停。 本轮调整并非孤立现象，而是全球资本市场联动效应的体现。近期全球市 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a decline on November 20, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.12%[2] - The total trading volume was 1.72 trillion, a decrease of approximately 20 billion compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Most sectors declined, with notable increases in construction materials and comprehensive banking, while coal, oil, chemicals, and power equipment sectors faced significant declines[1] - The technology sector, particularly semiconductor and communication equipment, saw major capital outflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment[3] Technical Indicators - The market is showing signs of short-term weakness, with the ChiNext Index breaking below the 60-day moving average, and the Shenzhen and Shanghai indices also facing similar tests[1] - A five-day consecutive decline in the daily K-line pattern suggests a bearish trend, necessitating caution in trading strategies[1] Fund Flows - On November 20, net outflows from the Shanghai Stock Exchange amounted to 4.557 billion, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net outflows of 6.478 billion[3] - The top three sectors for capital inflows were IT services, energy metals, and joint-stock banks, while the semiconductor, communication equipment, and photovoltaic equipment sectors experienced the largest outflows[3] Economic Indicators - The October consumption market showed stable growth, with new energy vehicle retail sales increasing by 7.3%[4] - The November Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.5% for five years and 3% for one year, indicating a stable monetary policy environment[5] Industry Trends - The Chinese chip design industry is projected to achieve sales of 835.73 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.4%[8] - The smart glasses market is expected to reach a significant turning point in 2026, with global shipments projected to exceed 23.687 million units, and China's market expected to surpass 4.915 million units[7]

盘前要闻 1、何立峰：持续推动外贸提质增效，打通全国统一大市场建设卡点堵点 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 国务院副总理何立峰11月18日至20日到湖北、湖南调研。何立峰指出，持续推动外贸提质增效，完善高 标准物流体系建设，加力支持制造业高质量发展，加快构建全国统一大市场，进一步畅通国内国际双循 环。 2、估值担忧卷土重来叠加降息预期进一步受挫!美股上演过山车式大跳水 类型：市场 情绪影响：负面 美国9月强劲的就业数据进一步压低了降息预期，市场预计美联储12月降息的概率已降至不足40%。另 外，黄仁勋并未完全打消市场对AI泡沫的担忧。美股上演过山车式行情，纳指盘中一度涨超2%，但收 跌逾2%，大型科技股全线下跌，热门中概股普跌。 3、磷酸铁锂行业推进反内卷，行业协会将建议设成本红线规范报价 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 【美】约翰•博格《长赢投资》 机构观点 中国化学与物理电源行业协会将发布《关于参考磷酸铁锂成本指数及规范行业发展的通知》。该《通 知》建议，企业应将协会11月18日披露的行业平均成本区间作为报价的重要参考，不要突破成本红线开 展低价倾销。 4、商务部部长王文涛会见美国驻华大使，就中美经贸关系等问题交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of *ST Dongyi experienced a significant surge of 258% over 29 trading days, but faced a sharp decline after the court accepted its restructuring plan, indicating potential market volatility and speculative trading behavior [2][3]. Stock Price Prediction - The pre-restructuring plan projected a stock price range of 9.87 to 62.27 yuan per share, with the upper limit being over 20 times the price paid by industrial investors at 2.3 yuan per share [3][4]. - The lack of disclosed valuation models and third-party assessments raises concerns about the credibility of the stock price predictions, which may mislead investors [3][4]. Regulatory Concerns - The direct prediction of stock prices in the restructuring plan is seen as a violation of information disclosure principles, potentially misleading investors and violating regulatory guidelines [4][5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes that companies should provide objective and prudent earnings forecasts based on their operational conditions post-restructuring [4][5]. Business Transformation and Risks - The surge in *ST Dongyi's stock price is attributed to market expectations surrounding its restructuring and transition to a computing power business model, with industrial investor Beijing Huazhu Technology Co., Ltd. involved [6][7]. - The restructuring plan includes commitments from Huazhu Technology to donate assets to *ST Dongyi, which raises concerns about the actual value and feasibility of these assets [7][8]. Financial Projections and Comparisons - The projected total market value of *ST Dongyi could reach 592 billion yuan if the stock hits the predicted maximum price, but this valuation lacks fundamental support based on actual business performance [8][10]. - Comparisons with competitors like Dongfang Guoxin highlight significant disparities in project scale and operational readiness, with *ST Dongyi's assets still under development [9][10]. Asset Donation and Associated Risks - The asset donation from Huazhu Technology is contingent on the completion of the restructuring plan, with potential penalties for non-compliance, but the low net asset value raises concerns about the viability of the donation [11][12]. - The financial health of Huazhu Technology, with a high debt ratio and limited operational experience in computing power, poses risks to the success of the asset integration and future profitability of *ST Dongyi [12].

Group 1: Digital Economy and Computing Power - Guangdong Province aims to establish a national digital economy innovation development pilot zone by 2027, targeting a digital economy core industry value-added share of over 16% of GDP and an annual compound growth rate of over 15% for the data industry [1] - The AI industry is experiencing strong demand, as evidenced by Nvidia's recent earnings report, which alleviated concerns about an AI bubble [1] - Domestic computing power supply chains are expected to enter a rapid growth phase, with significant capital expenditure increases anticipated from local cloud service providers [1] Group 2: Huawei's AI Technology - Huawei plans to unveil a breakthrough AI technology on November 21, which could increase computing resource utilization from the industry average of 30%-40% to 70%, effectively doubling existing hardware efficiency [2] - This innovation allows for unified scheduling and efficient utilization of various computing hardware, enhancing the domestic AI computing power supply chain's autonomy and ecosystem integration [2] - The technology aims to compete with international leaders in AI hardware and software collaboration, potentially becoming a crucial support for China's AI infrastructure [2] Group 3: Quantum Computing - IBM and Cisco are collaborating on foundational work for distributed quantum computing, aiming to demonstrate a network concept that integrates large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computers within five years [3] - This initiative seeks to address fundamental challenges faced by quantum computing networks and aims to connect multiple large-scale quantum computers [3] - Quantum computing is viewed as a transformative technology that could lead to significant advancements across various industries, with a projected market size reaching hundreds of billions by 2030 [4] Group 4: Tungsten Market - Chapter Tungsten Industry announced price increases for tungsten products, with black tungsten concentrate at 328,000 yuan per ton and ammonium paratungstate at 478,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 6% rise from the previous month [5] - The demand for tungsten has surged due to growth in industries like photovoltaics and automotive, while supply constraints have intensified market tensions [5] - The first batch of tungsten mining quotas for 2025 is set at 58,000 tons, a 6.45% decrease from the previous year, indicating tightening supply [5] Group 5: Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association is set to release guidelines to standardize pricing in the lithium iron phosphate sector, aiming to curb below-cost competition [6] - The lithium iron phosphate battery sector dominates new energy storage, with an expected total shipment of 580 GWh in 2025, reflecting a growth rate exceeding 75% [6] - The industry is anticipated to improve its economic outlook as it combats internal competition and benefits from high demand in energy storage applications [6]

近期，大盘出现了反复震荡调整的走势，显示出在4000点这一关键关口，多空分歧明显加大。临近年 底，部分投资者出于兑现全年收益的考虑，出现一定程度的获利了结行为，这在情理之中。因此，年底 市场往往呈现反复震荡的特征，但这并不意味着本轮结构性行情的结束。我一直认为，一轮慢牛长牛行 情是提振消费最有效的手段之一，也是打破当前经济增速放缓局面的关键所在。此轮牛市已经启动：以 2024年9月24日政策发布为标志，市场由此开启了第一波大幅上涨，正式拉开牛市序幕；而自2025年6月 底起开启的上攻行情，则可视为牛市的第二阶段。在此阶段，指数成功突破4000点整数关口，这也是A 股历史上第三次站上4000点。 的是，算力相关板块在2025年已累积较大涨幅，年底部分投资者可能选择获利了结，导致市场出现阶段 性调整。但此类调整预计为科技牛进程中的正常波动，并非行情终结。投资者需加以区分，真正具备技 术突破能力、能持续兑现业绩的科技龙头，有望在2026年继续表现；而仅有题材或概念的个股，一旦回 调，可能难有再起机会。因此，在科技股投资中，仍需坚持价值投资理念，谨慎投资纯题材股，避免追 涨杀跌，方能在本轮慢牛行情中真正实现财富的稳健 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with a total trading volume of 1.71 trillion yuan, a decrease of 177 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.12% [1] Sector Performance - The computing power sector was active in trading, while sectors such as banking and building materials saw gains. Conversely, coal and electricity sectors faced pressure [1] Computing Power Insights - Despite the active trading in the computing power sector, many stocks opened high but closed lower. The main catalyst was NVIDIA's quarterly report, which showed revenue of $57 billion, a year-over-year increase of 62% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 22%. The data center revenue was $51.2 billion, exceeding market expectations [2] Mergers and Acquisitions in Securities Industry - The securities industry continues to see mergers, with China International Capital Corporation planning to absorb Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through A-share issuance. If successful, the combined assets of the three firms will reach 1,009.583 billion yuan, with revenues of 27.39 billion yuan and net profits of 9.52 billion yuan [3] Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic for the upcoming year, driven by factors such as capital market reforms and policies aimed at stabilizing growth. Investors are encouraged to maintain confidence in the market [1]