Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return below the growth threshold[3][7]. - The new export orders index and new orders index for January are 47.8% and 49.2%, respectively, down 1.2 and 1.6 percentage points from last month, both remaining below the growth threshold[5][13]. - The production expansion speed has slowed, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, still above the growth threshold[16]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Dynamics - The finished goods inventory index for January is 48.6%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, slightly above seasonal levels; the raw materials inventory index is 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, below seasonal levels[17][21]. - The price scissors difference between raw material purchase prices and factory prices is 5.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from last month, indicating further compression of profit margins for enterprises[20][23]. - The main raw material purchase price index is 56.1%, up 3.0 percentage points from last month, reflecting significant price increases in the commodity market[20]. Group 3: Demand Weakness and Risks - External demand is weakening due to changes in trade policies and a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index, which fell from 94.2% to 84.5%, the lowest since May 2014[15]. - Internal demand is also showing signs of weakness, with the difference between new orders and new export orders dropping from 1.8% in December 2025 to 1.4% in January 2026[15]. - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy measures, unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations, and measurement errors in PMI indicators related to anti-involution industries[40].

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 31 日 [Table_Title] PMI 意外回落，什么信号 1 月 31 日， 统计局发布 1 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.3%，前值 50.1%。非制造业 PMI 49.4%，前值 50.2%。重点关注以下四个方面： 第一，制造业 PMI 回落，生产和订单是主要拖累。1 月制造业 PMI 回落 0.8 个百分点至 49.3%，与去年 11 月的 49.2%接近，表现显著弱于市场预期（彭博预期 50.1%）。组成制造业 PMI的五个分项中，主要是生产、新 订单明显回落，生产回落 1.1 个百分点至 50.6%，新订单回落 1.6 个百分点至 49.2%，两者分别拖累 PMI 0.3、 0.5 个百分点。 制造业回落幅度超出季节性。PMI 已通过季调方式部分剔除季节性规律，不过春节早晚对 12 月、1 月到 3 月 PMI 仍会有一定程度影响，难以完全剔除。我们参考春节类似日期的年份，2015（2 月 19 日）、2018（2 月 16 日）、2021（2 月 12 日），制造业生产分项 1 月相对前一年 12 月回落 0 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in January recorded a decline to 49.3%, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month and below the median level of the past five years [4][3] - Key sub-indices such as new orders, production, raw material inventory, and employment all showed a decrease, indicating a cooling in both supply and demand [4][2] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, while the production index decreased to 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points [6][4] Group 2 - The price index has risen significantly due to recent increases in commodity prices, with the raw material purchase price index at 56.1%, down 3.0 percentage points, and the factory price index at 50.6%, up 1.7 percentage points [8][3] - The construction industry has seen a notable decline, with the new orders index dropping significantly, leading to a business activity index of 48.8%, the lowest since April 2020 [9][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, with the service sector also experiencing a slight decline, indicating overall weak economic conditions [9][12]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, indicating a decline from the previous month [1][2] - The production index remains above the critical point at 50.6%, showing continued expansion in manufacturing production [2] - New orders index is at 49.2%, reflecting a decrease in market demand [2] - Certain industries, such as agricultural processing and aerospace, show strong production and new orders indices above 56.0%, while sectors like automotive and fuel processing are below the critical point [2] - Price indices for raw materials and factory output have risen, with the raw material purchase price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, marking an improvement in overall market prices [2] Group 2: Large vs. Small Enterprises - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while medium and small enterprises have PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, showing a decline [3] - High-tech manufacturing leads with a PMI of 52.0%, indicating a positive development trend [3] - Consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively, indicating a downturn in these sectors [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, reflecting a decrease from the previous month [4] - The service sector's business activity index is at 49.5%, with financial services showing high activity levels above 65.0%, while the real estate sector is below 40.0% [4] - The construction sector's business activity index has dropped to 48.8%, indicating a significant decline in activity due to seasonal factors [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index is at 49.8%, indicating a slowdown in overall business activities compared to the previous month [5] - The manufacturing production index is at 50.6%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, contributing to the composite index's decline [5]

国家统计局1月31日发布数据显示，1月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.3%、49.4%和49.8%，比 上月下降0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点，经济景气水平有所回落。 从行业看，货币金融服务、资本市场服务、保险等行业商务活动指数均高于65.0%，市场活跃度较高。 出厂价格指数近20个月来首次升至临界点以上 "1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业PMI为49.3%，景气水平较上月下降。"国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计 师霍丽慧表示。 高技术制造业持续领跑。1月份，高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0%及以上较高水平，相关行业发展态势持续向好。装备制造业PMI为 50.1%，保持在扩张区间。消费品行业和高耗能行业PMI分别为48.3%和47.9%，景气水平有所回落。 企业预期保持乐观。1月份，生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产经营活动预 期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对近期行业发展信心较强。 "1月份，受季节性因 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读时表示，1月份，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，加 之市场有效需求仍显不足，制造业PMI为49.3%，景气水平较上月下降。 制造业采购经理指数有所下降 生产继续保持扩张 1月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布中国采购经理指数。数据显示，1月 份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.3%、49.4%和49.8%， 比上月下降0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点，经济景气水平有所回落。 企业预期保持乐观。生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，继续高于临界点。从行业看，农副食品加工、食 品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数连续两个月位于56.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对 近期行业发展信心较强。 展望后市，文韬预计，2月份，受春节假期影响，制造业运行或继续有所放缓。随着春节过后经济社会 回归正常运行，在"十五五"规划布局启动、中央经济工作会议部署落实的带动下，制造业将继续稳定扩 张，高质量发展向深向实。 非制造业商务活动指数有所回落 金融市场活跃度较高 1月份，受建筑业等行业景气度下降等因素影响，非制造业商务活动指 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In January, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][12] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point; small and medium-sized enterprises had PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, down 1.1 and 1.2 percentage points respectively, both below the critical point [1][15] - The production index was 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points but still indicating expansion; the new orders index was 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, showing a slowdown in market demand [1][14] - The raw materials inventory index was 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, indicating a continued decrease in inventory levels; the employment index was 48.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight decline in employment levels [1][14] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - In January, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [2][12] - The construction industry Business Activity Index was 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points, while the services industry Business Activity Index was 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points [2][16] - The new orders index was 46.1%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating a decline in market demand; the construction new orders index was 40.1%, down 7.3 percentage points [2][16] - The input prices index was 50.0%, indicating stability in input prices; the construction input prices index was 52.0%, up 1.2 percentage points, while the services input prices index was 49.7%, down 0.4 percentage points [2][3] Group 3: Price and Employment Trends - The sales price index was 48.8%, up 0.8 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in sales prices; the construction sales price index was 48.2%, up 0.8 percentage points, and the services sales price index was 48.9%, also up 0.8 percentage points [3] - The employment index for non-manufacturing was 46.1%, stable from the previous month, indicating stable employment conditions; the construction employment index was 41.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, while the services employment index was 47.0%, unchanged [3][16] - The business activity expectation index was 56.0%, down 0.5 percentage points but still indicating optimism among non-manufacturing enterprises; the construction expectation index was 49.8%, below the critical point, while the services expectation index was 57.1%, up 0.7 percentage points [3][16] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in overall production and business activities compared to the previous month [4][12] - The manufacturing production index was 50.6%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, contributing to the overall decline in the Comprehensive PMI [17]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in January, indicating a decline in economic sentiment compared to the previous month [2][3] - The production index remains above the critical point at 50.6%, suggesting continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, indicating a drop in market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating ongoing expansion, while small and medium enterprises show lower PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, reflecting a decline in economic activity [4] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead with a PMI of 52.0%, indicating a positive development trend, while consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9% [4] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a decrease in overall economic sentiment in the non-manufacturing sector [7] - The service sector's business activity index is at 49.5%, with financial services and capital market services showing high activity levels above 65.0%, while the real estate sector's index dropped below 40.0% [7] - The construction sector's business activity index decreased to 48.8%, indicating a significant decline in activity due to adverse weather and upcoming holidays [7] Group 3: Overall Economic Indicators - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 49.8%, indicating a slowdown in overall production and business activities compared to the previous month [8] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are at 50.6% and 49.4%, respectively, contributing to the overall PMI output index [8]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in January, indicating a decline in economic sentiment compared to the previous month [2] - The production index remains above the critical point at 50.6%, suggesting continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, indicating a drop in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating ongoing expansion, while small and medium-sized enterprises saw PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, reflecting a decline in economic activity [3] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead with a PMI of 52.0%, indicating a positive development trend, while consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9% [3] - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices increased to 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4% in January, reflecting a decrease in overall economic sentiment [4] - The service sector's business activity index decreased slightly to 49.5%, with financial services and capital market services showing high activity levels above 65.0%, while the real estate sector dropped below 40.0% [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell significantly to 48.8%, influenced by adverse weather and the upcoming holiday, indicating a notable decline in construction activity [4] Group 3: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index is at 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in overall business activities [5] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are reported at 50.6% and 49.4%, respectively, contributing to the composite PMI's decline [5]

每经AI快讯，1月31日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1月份，非制造业商务活动指数为49.4%，比上月下 降0.8个百分点。分行业看，建筑业商务活动指数为48.8%，比上月下降4.0个百分点；服务业商务活动 指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.2个百分点。从服务业行业看，货币金融服务、资本市场服务、保险等行业 商务活动指数均高于65.0%；批发、住宿、房地产等行业商务活动指数均低于临界点。 ...