Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead first rose and then fell. Macroscopically, the end of the US government shutdown, hawkish remarks from Fed officials, and weak domestic economic data pressured lead prices. Fundamentally, raw material supply remained tight, and processing fees for lead concentrates were weak and stable. Environmental controls in Henan affected the recycling of waste batteries, and some holders withheld goods, increasing costs. On the smelting side, primary lead production was stable, while secondary lead supply decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the consumption of lead - acid batteries for electric bicycles entered the off - season, and enterprises mainly made rigid purchases. Overall, LME lead was technically strong, and the domestic supply was stable while demand was weak. The import window for lead ingots closed, and lead prices were expected to adjust at a high level, with limited downward space due to the strength of LME lead and low domestic inventories [3][5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From November 7th to November 14th, SHFE lead rose from 17,420 yuan/ton to 17,495 yuan/ton, LME lead rose from 2045 dollars/ton to 2066 dollars/ton, the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.52 to 8.47, SHFE inventory increased by 4208 tons to 42,790 tons, LME inventory increased by 18,775 tons to 222,475 tons, social inventory increased by 0.31 million tons to 3.49 million tons, and the spot premium decreased from - 175 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead switched to PB2601, with a weekly increase of 0.34%. LME lead rose first and then adjusted, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. In the spot market, after the rise and fall of Shanghai lead, the willingness of holders to deliver was determined, and the enthusiasm for shipping increased. Downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing [5] Industry News - As of the week of November 14th, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee was - 135 dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining flat month - on - month [9] Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory levels, spread situations, waste battery prices, enterprise profit, processing fees, output, social inventory, and import profit and loss [11][12][18][19][22][23][25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of primary lead is increasing, while the production of recycled lead is rising rapidly due to expanding profits. Although primary lead smelting is undergoing maintenance, the overall supply is on the rise. Consumption has temporarily stabilized, with battery factory operating rates rebounding and raw material purchases increasing. The price of lead is expected to fluctuate, with a recommended range - bound trading strategy. Long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets should be continued due to the increase in domestic lead inventories [3][5]. - The price range of lead is estimated to be between 17,200 - 17,700 yuan/ton, and the five - location total lead inventory has increased, though the absolute inventory remains at a historically low level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect - **Price and Spread** - The closing price of the main SHFE lead contract last week was 17,495 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.43%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,440 yuan/ton, with a night - session decline of 0.31%. The LME lead (0 - 3) spot premium decreased from - 10.74 to - 23.09 dollars/ton. The premium for lead in the bonded area remained unchanged at 95 dollars/ton, and the spot premium for Shanghai 1 lead remained at 0 yuan/ton. The spread between recycled lead and primary lead decreased from - 50 to - 100 yuan/ton, and the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract increased from - 60 to - 50 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory** - SHFE lead warehouse receipts inventory increased by 9,124 tons to 31,027 tons, and the total SHFE lead inventory increased by 4,208 tons to 42,790 tons. Social inventory increased by 3,100 tons to 34,900 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 18,775 tons to 222,475 tons, with the proportion of cancelled warrants decreasing by 7.78 percentage points to 42.17% [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest** - The trading volume of the main SHFE lead contract last week was 37,346 lots, an increase of 10,140 lots compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 38,417 lots, a decrease of 21,401 lots. The trading volume of LME 3 - month lead was 17,127 lots, an increase of 6,820 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [6]. 3.2 Supply Aspect - **Lead Concentrate** - The import processing fee for 60% grade lead concentrate has remained at a low level. The actual consumption of lead concentrate has shown an upward trend. The profit from imported lead concentrate has increased, while the profit from domestic lead concentrate has remained stable. The operating rate of lead concentrate has shown fluctuations over the years [23][24]. - **Primary and Recycled Lead** - Primary lead production has increased, but some primary smelters in Anhui and other regions will enter the maintenance cycle. The profit of recycled lead has continued to expand, with stable prices and sufficient supply of waste batteries. Recycled lead enterprises in Anhui and Henan have continued to increase production [5]. 3.3 Demand Aspect - **Lead - Acid Batteries** - The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers have shown certain fluctuations. The export volume of batteries has also changed over the years [42]. - **Terminal Consumption** - The actual consumption of lead has shown an upward trend. The production of automobiles and motorcycles has also shown certain changes over the years, which has an impact on the demand for lead [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of lead products such as SMM1 lead ingots, Shanghai lead main - contract, and London lead have shown an upward trend. The lead market has both supply and demand increasing, but high lead prices suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm. This week is the week before the delivery of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract, and some hidden inventories will become visible. There is a risk of the lead price rising and then falling. Attention should be continuously paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on refinery operations in the future [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.15% to 17,250 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main - contract closing price increased by 0.17% to 17,420 yuan/ton, and London lead closing price (electronic trading) rose by 0.99% to 2,045 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis**: No specific analysis of the basis is provided in the text, only historical basis data charts are presented [11]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Raw Material - Lead Concentrate**: The tight supply pattern of lead concentrate has not been alleviated, with domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees (TC) declining. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee dropped to 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee dropped to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The refinery profit is acceptable, with a profit of 162.5 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) as of October 31 [22][27]. - **Raw Material - Scrap Batteries**: As of November 7, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. With the continuous increase in secondary lead production, it is expected that the price of scrap batteries will rise in the future [42]. - **Primary Lead**: The primary lead operating rate increased slightly to 67.57%. The weekly production of some major smelting enterprises remained stable, while some enterprises had production changes due to maintenance or production resumption. The total weekly production is expected to increase from 49,800 tons to 50,450 tons [28][33]. - **Secondary Lead**: The secondary lead operating rate increased by 7.3 percentage points to 50.7%. The weekly production reached 5.97 tons last week. The supply of scrap batteries is relatively stable, and most refineries have sufficient raw materials, with the operating rate returning to a high level in the past six months [54]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Battery Enterprises**: The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 0.32 percentage points to 69.22%. Some previously maintained enterprises resumed production last week, and the lead ingot trading improved. However, due to the high lead price increasing battery costs and the general terminal consumption, dealers' inventory building is limited, and battery enterprises mainly produce according to sales [62]. 3.4 Import and Export Analysis - As of October 31, the refined lead export loss was about 3,000 yuan/ton. As of November 10, the import profit was - 418.79 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [71]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Lead Ingot Inventory**: As of November 10, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 3.27 tons, and the inventory of primary lead's main delivery brand factories was 8,900 tons, showing an increase. High lead prices inhibited downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and inventory accumulated due to delivery and position transfer [81]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of November 7, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 3.86 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 20.22 tons, showing a decrease [84]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the data of primary lead production, secondary lead production, exports, imports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory from July 2024 to August 2025 [85].

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Supply Gradually Recovering, Lead Prices May Oscillate Weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the gradual increase in the operation of domestic secondary lead smelters, the supply of domestic lead ingots may improve. On the consumption side, terminal demand is gradually weakening, and domestic lead consumption may decline. Attention should be paid to the domestic social inventory situation, and lead prices may decline as social inventory increases [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply - Side**: Recently, the supply - demand of domestic lead concentrates remains in a tight balance. The processing fee of domestic lead concentrates has been reduced by 50 yuan to 300 yuan/metal ton, and the weekly processing fee of SMM imported lead concentrates has been reduced by 10 US dollars to - 135 US dollars/dry ton. Most secondary lead smelters in China have sufficient raw material inventories, and the purchase quotes for lead - containing waste materials are stable. Individual secondary lead smelters have slightly increased the purchase price of waste batteries. It is expected that as the operation of secondary lead smelting enterprises increases, the price of lead - containing waste materials may gradually rise [4] - **Smelting End**: This week, the average operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters is 67.57%, an increase of 0.4% from last week. A small - scale smelter in Henan has resumed production after maintenance and slightly increased production; a small - and medium - scale smelter in Hunan has slightly fluctuated in output due to raw material supply, and other smelters in this region maintain partial operation and have not fully resumed production; smelters in Yunnan maintain normal production this week; a smelter in North China has reduced production as scheduled for maintenance, and another smelter's maintenance plan is still scheduled for late November. A smelter in Inner Mongolia that had resumed production after maintenance but was not at full capacity has returned to normal production and still has a slight increase this week. The weekly operating rate of SMM's four - province secondary lead is 50.65%, an increase of 7.24% from last week. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Anhui is over 50%. The large - scale smelting enterprises under maintenance in this region have all resumed production and their output is slowly increasing. It is expected that the operating rate in this region will still rise next week. The production of enterprises in Henan and Jiangsu is relatively stable, and the regional operating rate has not changed much. Since the supply of lead ingots in the northern market is still not abundant, the sales orders of smelters in Inner Mongolia are good [4] - **Consumption End**: This week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises is 69.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%. Recently, affected by the rising lead prices, the production cost of lead - acid batteries has increased. To avoid accumulating high - price inventories, some medium - and large - scale enterprises plan to reduce production, stop production, or conduct equipment maintenance from the end of October to early November. The maintenance of lead - acid battery enterprises has been completed one after another this week, and a small number of enterprises have resumed normal production. In November, the demand in the automotive battery market is weak, and some enterprises have lowered their production plans for November. Therefore, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid batteries has only increased slightly this week [4] - **Inventory Data**: As of November 6, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions has reached 31,800 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons compared to October 30 and an increase of 1,600 tons compared to November 1 [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Hold previous short positions; temporarily hold off on arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [4] 1.2 - 1.6 - These sections list various data related to lead, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific analysis content is provided [5][8][12][16] Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - These sections list data on global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, and domestic lead concentrate supply, but no specific analysis content is provided [21][24] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary - These sections list data on the price of lead - containing waste materials, waste battery prices, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters, but no specific analysis content is provided [28] Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Lists data on global refined lead balance, production, and demand, but no specific analysis content is provided [36] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Lists data on import and export profits and losses, import and export volumes, and net export volumes of domestic refined lead, but no specific analysis content is provided [43] 3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profits - Lists data on lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profits, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue, but no specific analysis content is provided [44] 3.4 Primary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate and production of primary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [47] 3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Costs and Profits - Lists data on the costs, comprehensive profits and losses, and production profits of secondary lead enterprises of different scales, but no specific analysis content is provided [50][54] 3.6 Secondary Lead Supply - Lists data on the operating rate, production, and output of secondary lead smelting enterprises, but no specific analysis content is provided [59] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Lists data on the total supply of domestic lead ingots, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and net refined lead exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [62] Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead - Acid Batteries - Lists data on the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, dealer inventories, export and import volumes, and enterprise inventories, but no specific analysis content is provided [69] 4.2 Lead Alloys and Their Plates - Lists data on lead alloy prices, lead alloy imports and exports, lead plate imports and exports, and other lead plate imports and exports, but no specific analysis content is provided [72] 4.3 Automobiles - Lists data on Chinese automobile production, exports, and production structure, but no specific analysis content is provided [75] 4.4 Motorcycles, Power, and Communications - Lists data on motorcycle production, communication construction volume, and power projects, but no specific analysis content is provided [78]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the production of secondary lead is rapidly recovering. Consumption is temporarily stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The production of primary lead has increased, and secondary lead enterprises have large profits, leading to a rapid rise in production. Terminal consumption is temporarily stable, with an increase in the operating rate of battery factories and more raw material purchases. The lead price is expected to fluctuate, and short - volatility operations can be considered. With the increase in domestic lead inventory, the long domestic and short overseas arbitrage should be continued to hold [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract last week was 17,420 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.17%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,490 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.40%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 2,012 US dollars, with a decrease of 0.64%. The LME lead spot premium has changed from - 26.48 to - 10.74, and the spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts has changed from - 80 to - 60 [6]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 258 to 21,903 tons, and the total Shanghai lead inventory increased by 2,583 to 38,582 tons. The social inventory increased by 2,000 to 31,800 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 16,600 to 203,700 tons, with the注销仓单 ratio at 49.95% [6]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead contract last week was 27,206 lots, a decrease of 21,113 lots compared with the previous week, and the position was 59,818 lots, a decrease of 8,366 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 10,307 lots, an increase of 4,935 lots, and the position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [6]. Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The production, import volume, and actual consumption of lead concentrate in China are presented in the data, and the inventory in Lianyungang shows certain fluctuations over the years. The import and domestic treatment charges of lead concentrate have changed, and the profit of lead concentrate smelting has also fluctuated [24]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: The production of primary lead has increased, and the weekly operating rate has shown different trends over the years. The production of secondary lead has also increased, and the operating rate has recovered. The by - product silver output and the price of sulfuric acid in the lead - smelting process are also presented [29][30]. - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead are shown in the data, and the net import and export volume of refined lead also have corresponding changes [36][40]. Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and Terminal - **Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries has shown different trends over the years, and the monthly finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers are presented. The export volume of batteries also shows certain changes [44]. - **Consumption and Terminal**: The actual consumption of lead, the monthly production of automobiles and motorcycles are presented in the data, reflecting the terminal demand for lead [46].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics, influenced by environmental policies, macroeconomic factors, and seasonal trends, leading to fluctuations in lead prices. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The main lead contract in Shanghai has shown a fluctuating upward trend due to environmental policies in Henan and Hebei, which have increased the circulation period of scrap and recycled lead, alongside slower-than-expected recovery in recycled lead production, resulting in low refinery inventories that support lead prices [1] - Overseas, while some mines like Endeavor and Tara are expected to provide incremental production, the overall increase is limited. Domestic mines are facing production halts, and despite some recovery in certain regions, the overall supply of lead ore is expected to remain stable [3] - The supply of recycled lead is facing environmental risks as northern regions prepare for heating, which may lead to production restrictions, potentially tightening supply in the short term [4] Group 2: Demand Trends - Demand for electric bicycles is transitioning from peak to off-peak seasons, with a seasonal decline expected. However, the implementation of new national standards is driving production line upgrades, maintaining some demand for lead-acid batteries [5][6] - The automotive sector is seeing limited growth in sales due to demand exhaustion, but there are signs of recovery in battery replacement demand as temperatures drop [6] - Overall, the lead-acid battery demand is expected to see slight increases, but high inventory levels among distributors may limit substantial upward pressure on prices [7] Group 3: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment appears bearish for the fourth quarter, but its short-term impact on lead prices is expected to be limited. The supply side variables are primarily related to recycled lead, which may maintain an increasing production pace despite potential environmental restrictions [7] - Lead prices are likely to experience fluctuations driven by recycled lead supply, with a potential downward trend if large-scale production resumes without external disruptions. However, environmental restrictions and adverse weather conditions may hinder the flow of recycled lead, leading to a volatile price outlook [7]

Core Insights - The article reports on a survey conducted by Mysteel involving 35 domestic primary lead smelting enterprises, covering a total capacity of 4.567 million tons, which represents a coverage rate of 92.56% [1] - It forecasts that the domestic primary lead production will reach 272,800 tons in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 950 tons or 3.61%, and a year-on-year growth of 6.48% [1] - The expected production for November 2025 is projected to rise to 284,700 tons [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, with electrolytic lead supply rising to 33.47 tons and recycled refined lead supply increasing to 28.58 tons. However, the import window for lead ingots is closed, and battery consumption remains resilient. As a result, social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [2][70] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Lead Market Review - In October, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a mid - month high of 17,660 yuan/ton and finally closing at 17,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.66%. London lead continued to oscillate widely, closing at 2,025 US dollars/ton at the end of October, with a monthly increase of 1.96% [7] II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to August 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 295.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.29%. It is predicted that global lead mine supply will grow by 0.7% to 457 tons in 2025 and 2.2% to 467 tons in 2026. In China, the lead concentrate output from January to September was 124.91 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.54%. With the cold weather, the monthly output is expected to decline month - on - month but remain positive year - on - year [10][11] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and silver concentrate imports decline month - on - month**: In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, down 50 yuan/metal ton month - on - month. The average import processing fee decreased as well. In September, lead concentrate imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Silver concentrate imports in September decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and future imports are expected to be under pressure [17][18] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead output was 881.3 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.31%. It is predicted that global refined lead output will increase by 2% to 1,334 tons in 2025 and 0.98% to 1,347.2 tons in 2026 [22] - **Refineries are in a state of reduction and resumption, and the monthly supply of electrolytic lead continues to rise**: In October, electrolytic lead output was 32.6 tons. In November, with the resumption of production in multiple regions, the output is expected to increase to 33.47 tons [27] - **The price of waste batteries is stable with a slight increase, and the supply of recycled lead increases marginally**: In October, the average price of waste batteries increased slightly. The output of recycled refined lead in October was 27.29 tons. In November, with the resumption of production of refineries and the output of new capacities, the output is expected to increase to 28.58 tons [33][34] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead consumption was 875.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.2%. It is predicted that global refined lead demand will grow by 1.8% to 1,325 tons in 2025 and 0.9% to 1,337 tons in 2026. The overseas lead - acid battery market has some resilience but is difficult to improve significantly [45][46] - **At the end of the month, battery enterprises cut production, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises declined**: In October, the operating rate of battery enterprises first rose and then fell. In November, it is expected to rise slightly but not significantly [48][49] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures put pressure on battery exports**: In September, lead exports decreased month - on - month, and imports increased. Battery exports decreased. It is expected that lead exports will remain low in October, and imports will increase significantly [50][51] - **Terminal growth is slow, and energy storage performs well**: In the automotive sector, production and sales are growing well. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard is expected to increase lead consumption. The energy storage battery market continues to grow [58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from High Levels - In October, LME inventory first increased and then decreased, and the end - of - year high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly. Social inventory continued to decline in October and is expected to stop falling and rise in November [64] III. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, but the import window for lead ingots is closed. Battery consumption remains resilient. Social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic smelter production increase and decrease coexist, and the supply shortage has improved. After the consumer end resumes production, it is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. The terminal peak season is not prosperous. It is expected that the lead price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the support level of 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter operations [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The opening of primary lead smelters increased and decreased, with small fluctuations in production. The opening of secondary lead smelters continued to rise due to improved profits and raw material supply. The opening of battery enterprises declined due to limited cost transfer. The import profit window was gradually closing, and downstream procurement was poor, leading to an increase in inventory [4][21][34][53][61][69]. - SMM 1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.43% to 17,225 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.17% to 17,390 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic disk) increased by 0.42% to 2,025 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2 Mineral Supply and TC - The tight mineral supply pattern has not been alleviated, and TC is stable with a weakening trend. Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 125 US dollars/dry ton. Smelter profits declined, and as of October 24, smelter profits (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 106 yuan/ton [22][27]. 3.3 Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate decreased to 67.17% on a month - on - month basis. The total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was expected to be 50,050 tons, with some enterprises having maintenance plans and others resuming normal production [28][33]. 3.4 Secondary Lead - The price of waste batteries was firm. As of October 31, the average price of waste batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The profit of secondary lead smelters declined slightly. As of November 3, the comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 160 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 56 yuan/ton [37][46]. - The raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of October 30, the raw material inventory was 134,450 tons, and the finished product inventory was 3,940 tons. It is expected that the finished product inventory will further accumulate [47][49]. - The secondary lead operating rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 43.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of secondary lead was 51,300 tons, with a slight decline. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise [50][52]. 3.5 Lead Batteries - The lead battery operating rate decreased by 6.46 percentage points to 68.9%. Due to limited terminal demand and high lead prices, some enterprises reduced production to avoid over - inventory. It is expected that the operating rate will recover this week [58][60]. 3.6 Import and Export - As of October 24, the refined lead export loss was about 3,200 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the import profit was 24.99 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was gradually closing [63][68]. 3.7 Inventory - As of October 30, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 29,800 tons, a decrease; the inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands in factories was 8,600 tons, a month - on - month increase. High lead prices suppressed downstream procurement, leading to inventory accumulation [72][78]. - As of October 31, SHFE refined lead inventory was 36,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease; as of October 30, LME inventory was 220,300 tons, a decrease [79][81]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to August 2025 [82].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures adjusted from a high level. The macro - positive news has landed, and the market risk appetite has cooled. The steady resumption of production by smelters combined with the centralized production cuts of battery enterprises has weakened the supply - demand support. However, as more smelters resume production, the demand for raw materials increases, strengthening the cost support. Also, the narrowing of the import profit of lead ingots after the decline of the Shanghai - London ratio weakens the import impact, limiting the adjustment space of futures prices. It is expected that the lead price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [2][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - From October 24th to October 31st, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,595 yuan/ton to 17,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 205 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 2,016.5 dollars/ton to 2,025 dollars/ton, an increase of 8.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.73 to 8.59, a decrease of 0.14; the SHFE inventory decreased from 36,333 tons to 35,999 tons, a decrease of 334 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 235,375 tons to 220,300 tons, a decrease of 15,075 tons; the social inventory increased from 35,900 tons to 39,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons; the spot premium increased from - 215 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - Last week, the main PB2512 contract price of Shanghai lead futures adjusted from a high level, with a weekly decline of 1.17%, and fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. The continuous decline of LME inventory supported the upward movement of the LME lead price center of gravity, but the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the rebound of the US dollar in the second half of the week suppressed the upward trend of LME lead, with a weekly increase of 0.42%. In the spot market, downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was average at the end of the month, and the transaction in the scattered order market did not improve significantly [6] Industry News - As of the week ending October 31st, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee remained flat at - 125 dollars/dry ton. An East - China large - scale secondary lead smelter started the furnace - drying operation on Monday and planned to start formal production this weekend, which is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons of secondary refined lead output in November. A survey of 30 industry analysts showed that the average spot lead price on LME in 2025 was 1,973 dollars/ton, and it is expected to be 2,050 dollars/ton in 2026. A large - scale lead - acid battery enterprise in Central China planned to cut or stop production from October 28th to November 2nd. A large - scale secondary lead smelter in North China stopped production for maintenance, affecting the refined lead output of 300 - 400 tons per day [9] Related Charts - The content provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory, lead ingot premium, primary and secondary lead price difference, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead output, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][12][13][14][15][17][18][19][20][21][22][24][25][27][29][32]