1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets are concerned about the US non - farm payrolls, with weak risk appetite, while the domestic economic data continues to be weak, and the A - share market is expected to be weak in the short term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [2][3] - Precious metals may have a technical correction, but platinum and palladium are expected to rise; copper prices will fluctuate in the short term; aluminum prices will fluctuate at a high level; alumina's upward space is limited; casting aluminum will fluctuate at a high level; zinc prices are adjusting and waiting for macro - guidance; lead prices will fluctuate weakly; tin prices will continue to adjust at a high level; industrial silicon prices are expected to rebound; steel prices will fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices will be under pressure; coking coal and coke prices will fluctuate weakly; soybean and rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate; palm oil prices will fluctuate in a range [4][6][8][10][11][12][14][15][16][18][19][20][22][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - Overseas: Fed officials' remarks affect market expectations, Japan's manufacturing confidence supports central bank rate hikes, and before important data releases, overseas market risk appetite is weak [2] - Domestic: November economic data is cold, with production showing resilience and demand cooling further. The A - share market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the bond market remains on the sidelines [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metals futures generally rose on Monday, with platinum hitting the daily limit in the domestic market. There is a risk of a technical correction in gold and silver, while platinum and palladium are expected to rise. Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and retail data [4][5] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper's main contract fluctuated at a high level. With a weak US dollar and various macro and industrial factors, copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract fell, and LME aluminum was flat. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data, and with inventory accumulation and seasonal demand slowdown, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the alumina futures main contract rose. Although the price has rebounded, there is a lack of continuous upward momentum, and the upward space is limited [10] 3.6 Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the casting aluminum alloy futures main contract fell. Affected by raw materials and environmental protection, both supply and demand are weakening, but with cost support, it will fluctuate at a high level [11] 3.7 Zinc - On Monday, Shanghai zinc's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the approach of the US non - farm payrolls data, the market is cautious. In the long - term, overseas supply will improve, and currently, the supply pressure is decreasing, so zinc prices will adjust in the short term [12] 3.8 Lead - On Monday, Shanghai lead's main contract fluctuated weakly. With the improvement of overseas supply in the medium - long term and the increase in inventory, the support of low inventory is weakening, but the downward space is limited [13][14] 3.9 Tin - On Monday, Shanghai tin's main contract adjusted downward. With the release of multiple economic data and the increase in Indonesian tin exports, the macro and micro support for tin prices is weakening, and it will continue to adjust at a high level [15] 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon rebounded at a low level. Supported by cost and market sentiment, it is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [16][17] 3.11 Steel (Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated. With weak terminal demand data, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [18] 3.12 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures fluctuated weakly. With the increase in supply and weak demand, iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure [19] 3.13 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Monday, double - coking futures fluctuated weakly. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [20][21] 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, soybean and rapeseed meal contracts fluctuated. With positive South American crop prospects and concerns about US soybean exports, the domestic market will maintain a short - term pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and the main contracts will fluctuate [22][23] 3.15 Palm Oil - On Monday, palm oil contracts fell. With weak export demand and expected inventory increase, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. Pay attention to the support at the lower limit of the previous low range [24][26] 3.16 Metal Trading Data - Provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts in the main domestic and international markets on December 15, 2025 [27] 3.17 Industry Data Perspective - Compares the prices, inventories, and other data of various metals on December 15, 2025, with those on December 12, 2025, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal [28][31][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is characterized by an increase in recycled lead production and cautious demand, with prices expected to remain volatile. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral, and the price range is 16,900 - 17,400 yuan/ton. The total lead inventory in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period [3][4]. - On the supply side, primary lead production is increasing as smelters resume from maintenance, and the spot import processing fee for 60% grade lead concentrate remains low. Recycled lead production is also expected to rise due to high profits and the resumption of production by some enterprises after routine maintenance [4]. - On the consumption side, large lead - acid battery enterprises are increasing production to meet year - end targets, but the market sentiment has become cautious due to the anti - dumping tax on Chinese automotive starting lead - acid batteries by an overseas cooperation committee. The domestic lead inventory in five regions has decreased on a weekly basis, and the current absolute inventory level is at a historically low level for the same period [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, for the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to operate within the range as lead prices are expected to remain volatile, and new long - position entrants should be cautious and pay attention to the profit changes of recycled lead. For the spread strategy, as domestic lead inventory continues to decline, attention can be paid to the term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract last week was 17,125 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.95%, and the night - session closing price was 17,035 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.53%. The LME lead 3 - month contract was at 1,983.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.27%. The LME lead spread, bonded area lead premium, and Shanghai 1 lead spot spread remained relatively stable. The spread between recycled lead and primary lead increased from - 50 to - 25 yuan/ton [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 29,694 lots, a decrease of 14,814 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 33,768 lots, a decrease of 11,176 lots. The trading volume of the LME S - lead 3 contract was 6,134 lots, a decrease of 512 lots, and the open interest was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 616 to 16,694 lots, the SHFE total lead inventory decreased by 2,508 to 32,227 lots, and the social inventory decreased by 3,100 tons. The LME lead inventory decreased by 8,800 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 2.44% to 46.52% [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, consumption, and production of lead concentrate have shown certain trends over the years. The profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates, as well as the import and domestic treatment charges (TC), have also changed. The lead concentrate operating rate has fluctuated [30][31]. - **Primary and Recycled Lead**: Primary lead production is increasing as smelters resume from maintenance. Recycled lead production is expected to rise due to high profits and the resumption of production by some enterprises after routine maintenance. The production and operating rates of primary lead, recycled lead, and their combined production have shown different trends over time [4][34][35]. - **Waste Batteries and Recycled Lead**: The raw material inventory of recycled lead smelting enterprises, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of recycled lead have all changed over time. The net import of refined lead, import and export volume of lead ingots, and import profit and loss have also shown corresponding trends [39][40][43]. 3.3 Lead Demand - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises, the finished product inventory days of battery enterprises and dealers, and the export volume of batteries have all changed over time [47]. - **End - Use Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead, as well as the monthly production volume of automobiles and motorcycles, have shown different trends over the years [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Lead ore inventory remains basically flat, primary lead smelting operating rate declines marginally, lead scrap inventory drops slightly, secondary lead smelting operating rate continues to rise, and downstream battery manufacturers' operating rate increases marginally. China's lead ingot social inventory stays at a relatively low level, upstream factory inventory declines marginally, but the monthly spread of SHFE lead remains low. With the ebbing of non - ferrous metal sentiment and low positions in SHFE lead, lead prices are expected to run weakly in a wide range in the short term [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.14% at 17,134 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 76,000 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME lead 3S dropped 4.5 to 1,984.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total position of 170,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 17,025 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 17,000 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, China's social lead inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 22,900 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,700 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 75 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 235,500 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 110,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 48.25 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 99.2 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio was 1.225, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 297.67 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 34,000 tons, factory inventory was 471,000 tons, equivalent to 31.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary lead smelting operating rate was 65.52%, and the primary lead ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. At the secondary end, lead scrap inventory was 98,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 47,000 tons, and the secondary lead ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 74.64% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1.1673 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. In October 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1.5079 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4% [15] - **Domestic Production**: In November 2025, China's lead concentrate output was 136,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.8% and a month - on - month change of - 6.6%. From January to November, the total lead concentrate output was 1.5319 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In October 2025, the net import of lead - containing ores was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1.3035 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [17] - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2.6988 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In September 2025, the global lead ore output was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total global lead ore output was 3.4021 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 34,000 tons, factory inventory was 471,000 tons, equivalent to 31.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Operating Rate and Output**: The primary lead smelting operating rate was 65.52%, and the primary lead ingot factory inventory was 13,000 tons. In November 2025, China's primary lead output was 327,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to November, the total primary lead ingot output was 3.5145 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.8% [26] 3. Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the secondary end, lead scrap inventory was 98,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 47,000 tons, and the secondary lead ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's secondary lead output was 373,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.8%. From January to November, the total secondary lead ingot output was 3.6084 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.0% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 6.5172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 74.64%. In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 6.5264 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40] - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.1452 million units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 5.0% year - on - year [43] - **Inventory Days**: In November 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories decreased from 24.5 days to 20.9 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 41.0 days to 40.7 days [45] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles provides support for lead consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Total Lead Ingot Inventory**: Not elaborated in a summarized way in the text, but relevant data is presented through various inventory charts - **China's Monthly Lead Ingot Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63] - **Overseas Monthly Lead Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 48,900 tons. From January to September, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 17,000 tons [66] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, China's social lead inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 22,900 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,700 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 75 yuan/ton [71] - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 235,500 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 110,000 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 48.25 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 99.2 dollars/ton [74] - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen SHFE - LME ratio was 1.225, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 297.67 yuan/ton [77] - **Position and Funds**: The net long position of the top 20 in SHFE lead turned slightly net long, the net long position of investment funds in LME lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From the perspective of positions, the short - term guidance is bullish [80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the weekly trends of non - ferrous metals, analyzing the price movements, supply - demand situations, and future outlooks of various metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It suggests different trading strategies based on each metal's characteristics, like holding copper long - positions with certain stop - profit measures, being cautious about high - position risks in tin, etc. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Price and Market**: Last week, both domestic and foreign copper prices hit record highs. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in February 2026 is high. The spot signal shows that the inflection point of copper price is not obvious. [1] - **Supply**: In December, there is a certain production rush expectation, with an estimated monthly output increase of 5.57 tons. Domestic smelters may choose to reduce the production of 106 primary copper concentrates during equipment shutdown. [1] - **Outlook**: The LME copper price is at a high level, and the spot premium has decreased. The market is mainly trading based on expectations. There is a probability that the upward trend of copper prices may pause. If the Fed cuts interest rates or the domestic spot premium weakens, the copper price at a record high may correct. Long - positions can be held along the M5 moving average, and partial active profit - taking can be considered. [1] 3.2 Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, with no long - term production reduction. In December and January, 50,000 tons and 110,000 tons of exchange warehouse receipts will expire and flow out respectively. [1] - **Demand**: The downstream aluminum processing start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 61.9% month - on - month. In November, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 14.8% year - on - year but increased by 66,800 tons month - on - month. [1] - **Inventory and Spot**: Aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 985,000 tons, and aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 7000 tons to 121,000 tons. The inventory is higher than in previous years. Spot discounts in East, Central, and South China have widened. [1] - **Outlook**: Non - ferrous metals are still the focus of funds. The upward trend of silver and copper prices has driven up aluminum prices. The medium - term fluctuating and strengthening trend continues, but in the short term, market sentiment may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see. [1] 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Market**: Last week, SHFE zinc rose 3.92% and strongly broke through the annual line, following the external market trend. The internal - external price difference is oscillating at a high level. [1] - **Supply**: LME zinc inventory increased to 55,400 tons. Overseas smelters' production resumption expectations are insufficient. The supply of zinc concentrates is tight, and domestic smelter maintenance is expanding. The zinc ingot export window is open, and downstream demand is stable. [1] - **Demand**: Southern consumption is good, while northern demand weakens with the cold weather. In the "15th Five - Year Plan", the expected investment in underground pipeline network construction and renovation is about 5 trillion, and galvanized pipe consumption is expected to be strong in 2026. [1] - **Outlook**: Supported by tight ore supply, SHFE zinc can be seen as a low - level rebound. After breaking through the annual line, it is expected to further test the 24,000 integer mark. [1] 3.4 Lead - **Price and Market**: Last week, the expectation of smelter production reduction and increased downstream bargain - hunting purchases supported the market rebound. The SHFE lead main contract rose 1.7%, and LME lead rebounded to the 20 - day moving average and then faced pressure. [1] - **Supply**: LME lead inventory decreased to 243,000 tons, still relatively high. The supply of lead concentrates is in short supply, and the recycling volume of waste batteries has decreased. The market supply of lead ingots is tight. [1] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of lead - acid battery production increased by 1.07 percentage points to 24.46% week - on - week. The consumer market has both positive and negative factors, with insufficient incremental expectations. [1] - **Outlook**: Constrained by cost and consumption, SHFE lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton. There may be short - term price increases due to capital movements. [1] 3.5 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Market**: SHFE nickel rebounded and traded sideways at a high level, with light market trading and relatively low positions. SHFE stainless steel also rebounded, but overall trading was sluggish. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In the context of repeated macro - expectations, the willingness of both long and short sides to compete has decreased. Although stainless steel mills have frequently announced production cuts, the actual production reduction in November was insufficient. Downstream demand confidence is lacking. [1] - **Inventory**: Pure nickel inventory increased by 1500 tons to 57,000 tons, nickel iron inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 29,300 tons, and stainless steel inventory increased by 1000 tons to 997,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: Given high - level inventory and volatile macro - factors, short - selling at high levels is more reasonable. [1] 3.6 Tin - **Price and Market**: Funds have pushed up tin prices. LME tin reached a maximum of $41,000, and SHFE tin weighted price reached a maximum of 323,800 yuan. The short - term price fluctuations have increased. [1] - **Supply**: Indonesia's tin exports in November decreased. The situation in the Congo is uncertain. Domestic tin production may decline slightly in December. The real - world supply of tin ore is tight, and the cost of recycled materials is fluctuating. [1] - **Demand**: There are no bright spots in traditional fields, and the demand highlight is high - end semiconductor products. Domestic spot trading has deepened, and social inventory has increased. [1] - **Outlook**: In 2026, especially after the Spring Festival peak season, the probability of an increase in supply is high, and the recovery speed may be faster than demand. Attention should be paid to high - position risks. [1] 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market**: Last week, lithium carbonate futures adjusted, with active short - selling in the market. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has slightly corrected. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall demand remains strong. In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to perform well. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand. The overall inventory of downstream battery and material factories is flat or slightly reduced. [1] - **Inventory**: The total market inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 113,600 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 3600 tons to 21,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1700 tons to 44,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of lithium carbonate has fallen sharply from a high level, with large market differences. The fundamentals are generally strong, and the short - side is relatively tight. [1] 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The main contract of industrial silicon S12601 showed a weak downward trend in the range of 8900 - 9030 yuan/ton this week. The price of 421 - grade industrial silicon in Xinjiang has dropped to 9000 yuan/ton. [1] - **Supply**: The total production of industrial silicon in December is expected to slightly decline to 396,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.8%. Some enterprises plan to slightly reduce the supply volume. [1] - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 800 tons to 558,000 tons, with an increase in both general and delivery warehouses. [1] - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon has fallen to the lower limit of the range. The inventory reduction at the end of the year is still under pressure. If the actual production reduction of local factories is limited, the price may further decline. [1] 3.9 Polysilicon - **Price**: Last week, the main contract of polysilicon reached a high of 59,200 yuan/ton due to the expectation of warehouse receipts. The expansion of delivery brands may suppress bullish sentiment. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The output in November was 114,600 tons, lower than expected. In December, it is expected to slightly decline. Battery and silicon wafer enterprises have reduced production. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 291,000 tons. [1] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of polysilicon have significantly weakened, but the price may still be strong after a brief negative impact if the registered quantity of warehouse receipts is lower than expected. [1]

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Lead" and dated December 9, 2025 [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lead have improved, and lead prices have stabilized and rebounded. Domestic lead ingot supply has tightened regionally, downstream consumption has improved, and with a positive macro - mood, lead prices have gradually stabilized and rebounded. The market is mainly dominated by long - term order purchases, and there is a strong wait - and - see attitude towards spot orders. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the inventory pressure brought by delivery and position transfer, and be wary of lead prices rising and then falling [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 1.18% week - on - week to 17,175 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 1.17% to 17,290 yuan/ton, and the LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.41% to 2,009 US dollars/ton [13] 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Lead Concentrate - **Processing Fees**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat week - on - week at 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 135 US dollars/dry ton. The tight supply of lead concentrate is expected to continue, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend [30] - **Smelter Profits**: As of November 28, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 452.1 yuan/ton [30] 2.2 Primary Lead - **Operating Rate**: The primary lead operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 65.92%. There are still some smelters with maintenance plans in the future, and it is expected that the primary lead operating rate will not increase significantly [31] - **Production and Maintenance**: The total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises in the week of December 5 was 46,560 tons, and it is expected to be 46,710 tons this week. Some enterprises in Yunnan resumed production after maintenance, while some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi had regular maintenance [36] 2.3 Recycled Lead - **Scrap Battery Prices**: As of December 5, the average price of scrap batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The scrap battery supply has tightened, and prices are expected to have limited decline [45] - **Smelter Profits**: As of December 5, the comprehensive profit of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 363 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was 155 yuan/ton. Profits have improved, but attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price increases on profits [50] - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: As of December 4, recycled lead raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory was 1,480 tons and continued to decline. The recycled lead enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 48.4%. Some enterprises in Inner Mongolia may stop production due to raw material shortages, which may drive a significant decline in the local operating rate [53][56] 3. Demand - Side Analysis - **Lead - Acid Battery Operating Rate**: The lead - acid battery operating rate increased by 1.07 percentage points to 74.46%. Some large enterprises have improved their production enthusiasm, and the consumption of automotive lead - acid batteries has improved in December, driving the operating rate to rise [64] 4. Import and Export Analysis - As of November 28, the refined lead export loss was about 3,200 yuan/ton. As of December 5, the import profit was 157.21 yuan/ton, and the import profit window has opened [77] 5. Inventory Analysis - **Lead Ingot Inventory**: As of December 4, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 2.36 million tons, showing a decline; the factory inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands was 11,850 tons, a week - on - week increase. The social inventory decreased while the factory inventory increased [88] - **Exchange Inventory**: As of December 5, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 34,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease; as of December 4, the LME inventory was 243,550 tons, also showing a decrease [93] - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from July 2024 to August 2025 [94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rebounded steadily. The market's dovish bets on the interest - rate cut path increased, the US dollar was weak, and non - ferrous metals such as copper and tin strengthened, driving up the lead price. The supply - demand tension of lead ore is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the cost side supports the lead price. Although the production of some refineries recovered in November, there were more refinery overhauls in December, and the production of primary and recycled lead is expected to decline month - on - month. The terminal consumption is divided, with the consumption of electric bicycle batteries weakening, but the consumption of automobile starting batteries improving, and large - and medium - sized battery enterprises starting year - end stockpiling. Overall, the macro - environment is warm, the fundamentals are marginally improved, and social inventories have dropped to a new low for the year, supporting the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will remain oscillating strongly in the short term, but the rebound space is restricted by the import expectation of lead ingots, and attention should be paid to the resistance around 17,500 yuan/ton [3][6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 11/28 | 12/5 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17,090 | 17,290 | 200 | yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1,981 | 2,009 | 28 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.63 | 8.61 | - 0.02 | | | SHFE Inventory | 37,799 | 34,735 | - 3,064 | tons | | LME Inventory | 263,175 | 243,550 | - 19,625 | tons | | Social Inventory | 3.07 | 2.36 | - 0.71 | 10,000 tons | | Spot Premium | - 65 | - 65 | 0 | yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main Shanghai lead PB2601 contract rebounded steadily, breaking through the moving - average pressure and finally closing at 17,290 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.17%. The LME lead price also rebounded slightly, closing at 2,009 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.41%. In the spot market, the supply of lead in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai markets was limited, and most of the lead ingots were from refineries. The supply of lead in the East China region was tight, and the mainstream origin quoted a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price. The recycled lead refineries were more willing to sell, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchased through long - term contracts [5]. - As of December 5, the LME weekly inventory was 243,550 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,625 tons. The SHFE inventory was 34,735 tons, a decrease of 3,064 tons from the previous week. As of December 4, the SMM five - region social inventory was 23,600 tons, a decrease of 7,100 tons from Monday and 11,400 tons from Thursday of the previous week. As the delivery of the current - month contract approaches, some goods holders may transfer their inventory for delivery, and the social inventory is expected to stabilize [6]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of December 5, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, with the average values remaining flat month - on - month [8]. - In November, the electrolytic lead production was 327,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. It is expected to slightly decrease to 323,400 tons in December. The recycled refined lead production in November was 296,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% and a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. It is expected to slightly decrease to 290,300 tons in December [8]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary and recycled lead, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][11][13][15].

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Low Inventory and Marginal Decrease in Supply Lead to Strong and Volatile Lead Prices [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a supply - demand imbalance. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, with domestic and imported ore markets facing different challenges. The smelting end has both production increases and decreases due to maintenance and other factors. The consumption end, especially the automotive battery sector, has improved. With low inventory and increased smelting costs, short - term lead prices may oscillate strongly in a range. Traders are advised to hold profitable long positions and be cautious of macro - factors, while waiting on arbitrage and options [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee is 300 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported lead concentrate weekly processing fee is - 145 dollars/dry ton. The lead concentrate market is stable, with imported ore remaining tight. There are disputes in the 2026 long - term contract price negotiation. The market circulation of domestic ore is scarce as most smelters have pre - ordered fourth - quarter supplies [4]. - **Smelting**: The SMM three - province primary lead smelter operating rate is 65.92%, a 0.60% week - on - week decline. Some smelters in different regions have production changes due to maintenance. The SMM four - province recycled lead weekly operating rate is 48.37%, a 0.13% decline [4]. - **Consumption**: The SMM five - province lead battery enterprise weekly comprehensive operating rate is 74.46%, a 1.07% week - on - week increase. The automotive battery market has improved due to year - end production targets and approaching peak seasons [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 4, the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory is 23,600 tons, a decrease of 11,400 tons from November 27 and 7,100 tons from December 1 [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable long positions and beware of macro - factors; wait on arbitrage and options [4]. 1.2 - 1.5 - These sections list various data related to lead, including futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [5][8][11][14] 2. Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary - Include data on global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, import profits and losses, and domestic lead concentrate total supply and mine operating rates [19][23] 2.3 Raw Material Supply - Recycled - Involve the price of lead - containing waste materials, waste battery prices, and recycled lead smelter raw material inventory [31] 3. Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 Global Refined Lead - Covers global refined lead balance, production, and demand [38] 3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export - Includes import and export profits and losses, volumes, and net exports [45] 3.3 - 3.4 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise - Involve primary lead smelting enterprise profits, including processing fees, smelting profits, and production data such as operating rates and output [46][49] 3.5 - 3.6 Recycled Lead - Include recycled lead enterprise costs, profits, and supply data such as operating rates and output [52][61] 3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply - Composed of domestic lead ingot total supply, primary lead output, recycled lead output, and refined lead net exports [65] 4. Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 Lead Battery - Contains lead battery enterprise operating rates, dealer and enterprise finished - product inventory, and import and export volumes [72] 4.2 Lead Alloy and Its Plates - Involve lead alloy prices and import and export data of lead alloys, lead plates, and other lead plates [75] 4.3 - 4.4 Other Demand Areas - Include data on the automotive industry (production, exports, and production structure), and production data of motorcycles, communication construction, and power projects [79][82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a state where primary lead smelters are in a concentrated maintenance phase, while the profit of secondary lead has expanded and production has increased rapidly. At the consumer end, large lead - acid battery enterprises are ramping up production at the end of the year, which is expected to continue to support lead prices. The lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a price range of 17,150 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and the overall strength analysis is neutral. The total inventory of lead in five regions has decreased, and the absolute inventory is at a historically low level for the same period. [3][7] - In terms of trading strategies, for the unilateral strategy, it is recommended that existing long positions be retained, while new long positions should be entered with caution, and attention should be paid to the profit changes of secondary lead. For the spread strategy, as the domestic lead inventory continues to decline, attention can be paid to the term positive arbitrage opportunities. [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE lead last week was 17,290 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.17%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,305 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.09%; the closing price of LmeS - lead3 last week was 2,005 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.21% [8]. - **Spread**: The LME lead basis decreased by 7.21 to - 49.15; the bonded area lead premium remained unchanged at 95; the Shanghai 1 lead spot basis increased by 5 to 25; the secondary lead - primary lead spread decreased by 50 to - 50. The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract increased by 25 to - 10 [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead warrant inventory decreased by 10,182 to 16,078 tons; the SHFE lead total inventory decreased by 3,064 to 34,735 tons; the social inventory decreased by 11,400 to 23,600 tons; the LME lead inventory decreased by 19,625 to 243,550 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased by 3.80% to 48.95% [8]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of SHFE lead last Friday was 44,508 lots, an increase of 1,089 compared with the previous week, and the position was 44,944 lots, a decrease of 2,978 compared with the previous week; the trading volume of LmeS - lead3 last Friday was 6,646 lots, an increase of 1,366 compared with the previous week, and the position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 compared with the previous week [8]. 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Secondary Lead - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, inventory, actual consumption, and production volume of lead concentrate from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the form of charts. The import TC and domestic TC of lead concentrate, as well as the profit of imported and domestic lead concentrates, are also shown. The lead concentrate operating rate from 2021 to 2025 is also provided [29][30][31]. - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The production volume and weekly operating rate of primary lead from 2021 to 2025 are presented. The production volume of primary lead + secondary lead and secondary lead, as well as the operating rate of secondary lead from 2021 to 2025 are also shown. The by - product output of silver and the price of 1 silver are presented, along with the price of 98% sulfuric acid in East China [33][34][36]. - **Waste Batteries and Secondary Lead**: The raw material inventory of secondary lead smelting enterprises from 2021 to 2025 is presented. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the cost and profit of secondary lead from 2021 to 2025 are also shown. The net import of refined lead, the monthly import volume of Chinese lead ingots, the import profit and loss, and the export volume of lead ingots from 2021 to 2025 are presented [39][40][43]. 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and Terminal - **Batteries**: The operating rate of lead batteries from 2021 to 2025 is presented, along with the monthly finished - product inventory days of lead - battery enterprises and dealers. The export volume of batteries from 2021 to 2025 is also shown [47]. - **Consumption and Terminal**: The actual consumption volume of lead from 2021 to 2025 is presented, along with the monthly production volume of automobiles and motorcycles from 2021 to 2025 [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the lead price rose first and then fell. From November 3rd to December 4th, the weighted Shanghai lead contract closed down 0.81% to 17,240 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of Shanghai lead dropped significantly by 39,600 lots to 80,100 lots. The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, with the current social inventory only at 21,600 tons, and the deliverable goods were relatively scarce. The lead ore's visible inventory increased, but the primary smelting operating rate declined, while the secondary smelting operating rate continued to rise. The weekly operating rate of downstream battery enterprises increased marginally. Considering the positive sentiment in the non - ferrous metal industry during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, it is expected that the lead price will be strong in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: From November 3rd to December 4th, the weighted Shanghai lead contract closed down 0.81% to 17,240 yuan/ton, and the total open interest dropped by 39,600 lots to 80,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot was 17,100 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 17,075 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 21,600 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 25 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 253,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 128,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.64 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 90.6 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 240.61 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. At the secondary end, the lead scrap inventory was 102,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. The lead - acid battery operating rate at the demand end was 73.39% [11]. 3.2 Primary Supply - **Raw Material Supply**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1.1673 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. The net import of silver concentrate in October was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1.5079 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. The domestic lead concentrate output in October was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total lead concentrate production was 1.3953 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. The net import of lead - containing ores in October was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1.3035 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, the total supply of Chinese lead concentrate was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 2.6988 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In September 2025, the global lead ore output was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total lead ore production was 3.4021 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, the factory inventory was 474,000 tons, equivalent to 30.7 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting and Production**: The primary operating rate was 65.32%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 9,000 tons. In October 2025, the domestic primary lead output was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total primary lead ingot production was 3.1869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26]. 3.3 Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: The lead scrap inventory at the secondary end was 102,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 7,000 tons. In October 2025, the domestic secondary lead output was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total secondary lead ingot production was 3.2351 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33]. - **Total Supply and Trade**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the domestic total lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply was 6.5172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: The lead - acid battery operating rate was 73.39%. In October 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the domestic cumulative apparent demand for lead ingots was 6.5264 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1.61452 million, the net export weight was 84,600 tons, and the estimated net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43]. - **Inventory Days**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand was expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles were gradually replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles ensured a high replacement demand. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Gap**: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons, and from January to October, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Gap**: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 48,900 tons, and from January to September, the overseas cumulative refined lead supply - demand gap was a surplus of 1,700 tons [66]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 21,600 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 16,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 25 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 253,200 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 128,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 43.64 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 90.6 US dollars/ton [74]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.218, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 240.61 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased slightly, the net long position of investment funds in London lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance was bullish [80].

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a mixed situation with a decline in lead prices leading to improved downstream purchasing activity, while tight raw material supply continues to restrict smelter operations [1][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Lead ingot supply has gradually recovered since mid-November, but high lead prices have suppressed downstream purchasing, resulting in a price decline from previous highs [1]. - The lead concentrate market remains tight, with processing fees at historically low levels. Domestic smelters have begun winter stockpiling, but the import window for lead concentrate has not fully opened [2]. - Domestic lead concentrate resources are nearly sold out due to rising silver prices, leading to sparse market quotes and low processing fees. However, the arrival of previously contracted imports has alleviated some raw material shortages [2]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Trends - The willingness of traders to sell has improved as many domestic recycled lead smelters have shifted to a multi-raw material production model, reducing their reliance on waste batteries [3]. - Despite a decline in processing fees, the prices of by-products like sulfuric acid and silver remain high, keeping overall profits for smelters relatively strong [3]. - The downstream market for electric bicycle batteries is experiencing a downturn, while the automotive battery market is entering a peak replacement season, leading to increased production rates among larger enterprises [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The lead market is expected to see a regional tightening of supply as primary lead smelters enter maintenance phases, while recycled lead smelters maintain stable operating rates if raw material arrivals remain consistent [4]. - The recent decline in lead prices has led to a recovery in downstream purchasing enthusiasm, with lead ingot inventories decreasing [4]. - The tight supply of raw materials is unlikely to improve significantly, which will continue to restrict smelter operations and limit the downward potential for lead prices [4].