一早就刷到了方永飞吐槽小米雷总的视频。视频中的方永飞激情演讲，比脱口秀演员的表演还精彩，估计看到这个视频的网友们都 忍不住会笑。 别人都是阴阳小米，而方永飞在年度演讲里直接把雷军当成"批判对象"，那火力猛得让人直呼"行业不敢说的话全被他讲透了"！ 作为常年给华为、阿里这些大企业做咨询的EMBA讲师，方永飞这次是完全没留情面，从口号到营销，从产品到战略，把小米和雷 军扒得很彻底。 当方永飞用"特斯拉他爹"、"吹牛界祖师爷"这些词形容雷军的时候，台下在大笑，看视频的人也是如此。 最劲爆的就是吐槽雷军"爱喊世界第一"，方永飞当场开怼："早年说5-10年超越苹果成手机界第一，现在期限过了，高端市场还在边 缘晃悠。 刚造车就喊一年卖1000万辆，不知道的还以为你是特斯拉他爹，堪称吹牛界祖师爷！"毕竟特斯拉奋斗十几年才站稳百万辆台阶。 接着方永飞还扒了小米的"套路营销"，说他们是"大字吸睛、小字避责"的典范。"比迈巴赫多一度""304不锈钢"，听着高大上，实际 都是日常材料。 更离谱的是续航和加速宣传，1300公里续航得先充满电再跑，1.98秒破百还不算起步时间，这不是骗消费者吗？ "就连最新的"第四代电机2054匹马力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future of China is seen as a potential surpassing of the United States, akin to Japan's rise in the 1980s, with the main risks stemming from internal errors rather than external constraints [1][15]. Group 1: Unexpected Developments - The rapid proliferation of smartphones has redefined industry landscapes, integrating multiple functionalities into a single device, which exemplifies a "non-linear explosion" driven by technological convergence [5][6]. - The slow development of VR technology contrasts sharply with the smartphone boom, highlighting the importance of system dependencies and the need for a comprehensive sensory experience for true immersion [8][9]. - The emergence of large language models (LLMs) represents an unexpected breakthrough in AI, showcasing the potential for logic and reasoning through language, diverging from traditional AI paths [11][12]. Group 2: Future Outlook for China - Key drivers for China's growth in the next 25 years include the default option of open-source technology, the confidence of tech innovators moving beyond imitation, and a cultural shift led by returnees embracing globalization [16]. - The exploration spirit that embraces "unexpected beauty" is deemed crucial for fostering innovation and overcoming challenges [17].

Group 1 - The core theme of the article revolves around the unexpected developments in technology over the past 25 years, categorized into three main insights: "unexpected joy," "unexpected slowness," and "unexpected paths" [2][3] Group 2 - "Unexpected joy" refers to the rapid and extensive adoption of smartphones, which have transformed various industries by integrating multiple functionalities into a single device, driven by technological convergence [3] - The smartphone revolution was not merely a result of a single technological breakthrough but rather a combination of advancements in communication, chips, and software, which collectively met the fundamental human need for instant connectivity [3] Group 3 - "Unexpected slowness" highlights the slower-than-expected development of virtual reality (VR) and autonomous driving technologies, which face challenges beyond mere technical advancements, including societal and regulatory hurdles [4][5] - The article emphasizes that the speed of technology adoption is contingent upon the maturity of the entire system, not just isolated breakthroughs, underscoring the importance of understanding the "wooden barrel principle" [6] Group 4 - "Unexpected paths" discusses the emergence of large language models (LLMs) and the sharing economy, which have disrupted traditional models by leveraging technology in innovative ways that were previously underestimated [7][8] - The article suggests that future breakthroughs are likely to arise from cross-disciplinary innovations or unconventional approaches rather than from optimizing existing paths [8] Group 5 - The article concludes with reflections on Japan's past economic trajectory, suggesting that internal factors, rather than external pressures, can hinder progress, a lesson applicable to China's current position in the global landscape [9][10] - The future growth of China is anticipated to be driven by open-source options, confidence among tech innovators, and a culture that embraces global perspectives and innovation [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - ByteDance is advancing a collaboration with Lenovo to develop AI smartphones, aiming to pre-install AIGC plugins on devices to gain user access and shift the current passive role of AI in execution [1] Group 1: Collaboration Details - Lenovo has maintained close cooperation with ByteDance's subsidiaries such as Doubao and Volcano Engine [1] - The collaboration includes a focus on smart terminal cooperation, particularly with Doubao [1] Group 2: Product Launch - Earlier this month, ByteDance and ZTE launched the "Doubao Phone Assistant," an application that allows users to access services across apps based on voice commands, facilitating tasks like ordering food, booking flights, and responding to messages [1] - This phone has been referred to as the "Doubao Phone," generating significant industry interest regarding the future of AI terminals [1] Group 3: Strategic Intent - ByteDance's strategy is not solely focused on business growth but aims to create new monetization pathways for traffic, involving smartphone manufacturers in revenue from traffic distribution and subscription services [1] Group 4: Market Position - According to IDC, Lenovo's smartphone brand Motorola is projected to reach a shipment volume of 16 million units by Q3 2025, holding a global market share of 4.9% and ranking eighth in the global smartphone market [1] - This collaboration could potentially secure a terminal entry point with an annual shipment volume of around 60 million units [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) [5][7]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's AI strategy is characterized as a long-distance race rather than a sprint, with significant investments planned for the next five years, exceeding 200 billion RMB [5]. - The newly released Mimo-V2-Flash model demonstrates industry-leading performance with a lightweight design featuring 309 billion total parameters and 15 billion activation parameters, outperforming competitors in key metrics [2]. - Xiaomi has established the largest consumer hardware platform globally, with 1.8 billion connected devices, including 740 million active mobile users and over 1 billion IoT devices, which provides a robust foundation for AI technology deployment [3]. Summary by Sections AI Model Development - The Mimo-V2-Flash model achieves a 2.0 to 2.6 times increase in inference speed and has a throughput of 5000-15000 tokens per second, significantly enhancing efficiency and cost-effectiveness for large-scale AI applications [2]. - The model is fully open-sourced, with APIs and web experiences available, aiming to attract global developers and create a positive feedback loop for model iteration [2]. Hardware Ecosystem - Xiaomi's hardware ecosystem includes 1.8 billion connected devices, with a focus on personal, automotive, and home devices, which enhances the potential for AI technology applications [3]. Software Infrastructure - The upcoming release of the Pengpai OS 3 in August 2025 will enhance ecosystem collaboration, supporting over 60 applications and 70 scenarios, with a daily active user base of 410 million [4]. - The Vela lightweight system and MINT platform are designed to facilitate AI deployment across various devices, with over 100 open-source partners contributing to the ecosystem [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Xiaomi indicate a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 270.97 billion RMB in 2023, increasing to 635.31 billion RMB by 2027, and Non-IFRS net profits projected to rise from 19.27 billion RMB in 2023 to 50.97 billion RMB in 2027 [6][26]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in Non-IFRS earnings per share, from 0.77 RMB in 2023 to 1.96 RMB in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [6][26].

Group 1 - ByteDance is advancing partnerships with hardware manufacturers such as Vivo, Lenovo, and Transsion to develop AI smartphones [1][2] - The collaboration aims to pre-install AIGC plugins on devices to gain user access and shift the current passive position of AI in execution [1][2] - Lenovo has been closely cooperating with ByteDance's subsidiaries like Doubao and Volcano Engine in the smart terminal sector [1][2]

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing active trading, with the Tianhong Chip ETF (159310) showing a premium trading rate of 0.07% [1] - The electronic ETF (159997) has a trading volume exceeding 12 million yuan and a turnover rate of nearly 1%, focusing on semiconductor, consumer electronics, and AI chip sectors [2] - The index tracked by the Tianhong Chip ETF is expected to see a 37.62% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025 [2] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry presents opportunities for expansion and localization, with domestic wafer fabs expected to increase production next year [3] - The demand for high-end DRAM, HBM, and enterprise SSDs is being driven by AI computing expansion, indicating a new upward cycle in the storage industry [3] - The upstream price increase trend continues, with supply contraction and structural demand growth providing price upward elasticity for related products [3]

智通财经APP获悉，根据Counterpoint Research最新发布的《折叠/卷轴显示面板出货量追踪》报告，2026 年折叠屏智能手机面板出货量预计将实现 46% 的 同比增长。 "我们正迈入一个以书本式折叠屏为主要形态的新阶段。"Chansin补充道，"这对折叠屏面板行业具有深远意义。一方面，这意味着明年平均售价(ASP)将 显著提升;另一方面，这将显著利好三星显示，其市场份额将突破 50%。" 多折形态面板(如 Galaxy Z TriFold)的市场份额仍将维持在低个位数区间。 Counterpoint 预测，折叠屏智能手机整体出货量将在 2025 年同比增长 14%，2026 年同比增长 38%，其中书本式机型仍将占主导地位。副总监 Liz Lee表 示："我们看到书本式折叠屏正在快速普及。在2025年下半年早期销售阶段，三星 Galaxy Z7 系列中 Fold 型号的销量首次超过了 Flip 型号。" 书本式折叠屏智能手机出货量份额 来源：Counterpoint Research 折叠屏智能手机追踪与预测 副总监 Guillaume Chansin表示："随着苹果(AAPL.US)开始为其 ...

Core Insights - Counterpoint Research predicts a 46% year-on-year growth in foldable smartphone panel shipments by 2026, driven by Apple's entry into the market with its first foldable iPhone [4][5] - The book-style foldable panels are expected to solidify their dominant position, with Samsung Display projected to capture over 50% market share [4][5] - The overall foldable smartphone shipments are forecasted to grow by 14% in 2025 and 38% in 2026, with book-style models leading the market [5][7] Market Trends - The demand for larger screens and enhanced multitasking capabilities is driving consumer preference towards book-style foldable designs, despite their higher price [7] - The global foldable smartphone market is showing signs of recovery, with a 45% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025, setting the stage for explosive growth in 2026 [7] - The introduction of new models, such as the Galaxy Z TriFold, will maintain the market share of multi-fold designs in the low single digits [5][7] Company Overview - Counterpoint Research specializes in technology ecosystem market research, providing services to a wide range of clients from smartphone OEMs to chip manufacturers and large tech companies [8] - The company has a team of experienced analysts covering various sectors, including AI, automotive electronics, consumer electronics, and semiconductors [8]

Core Insights - The global smartphone shipment volume is expected to decline by 2.1% in 2026 due to rising storage costs, marking a downward revision of 2.6 percentage points from previous forecasts [4][5][7]. Group 1: Market Trends - The increase in component costs is anticipated to impact end-user demand, particularly affecting Chinese OEMs like HONOR, OPPO, and vivo, which have seen significant adjustments in their forecasts [5][7]. - The average selling price of smartphones is projected to increase by 6.9% in 2026, up from a previous estimate of 3.6%, driven by rising Bill of Materials (BoM) costs [7][10]. Group 2: Cost Implications - DRAM prices have risen, leading to an increase in BoM costs by approximately 25% for low-end models, 15% for mid-range, and 10% for high-end models, with further increases expected in the second quarter of 2026 [7][9]. - The cost of storage is projected to rise by about 40% before the second quarter of 2026, further exacerbating BoM costs [9]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - OEMs are likely to adjust their product strategies in response to cost pressures, with some low-SKU models already experiencing reduced shipments [10]. - Companies are adopting various strategies, including adjusting specifications of camera modules, displays, and storage configurations, as well as streamlining product lines to cope with market changes [10].