Group 1 - The gold market showed mixed performance with slight fluctuations in prices, indicating a stable trading environment [3][4][5] - Au99.95 opened at 769.10, with a closing price of 769.10, showing no change in value [3] - Au100g experienced a slight increase, opening at 771.00 and closing at 771.91, reflecting a rise of 2.04 yuan or 0.26% [3] Group 2 - The trading volume for Au(T+D) was significant, with a total of 32,652 transactions and a closing price of 769.30 [4] - The market for platinum (Pt99.95) opened at 320.25 and closed at 322.54, with a decrease of 0.21% [4] - Silver (Ag(T+D)) showed a notable increase, with a closing price of 9028.00, reflecting a rise of 1.99% [4] Group 3 - The NYAuTN06 contract opened at 773.60 and closed at 773.00, indicating a slight increase of 0.25% [5] - The trading volume for NYAuTN12 was lower, with only 7 transactions recorded [5] - Overall, the market maintained a steady trading environment with minor fluctuations across various precious metals [5]

Group 1 - International silver prices experienced a slight decline, currently trading at $36.66 per ounce, with a decrease of 0.20% [1][4] - The opening price for silver today was $36.69 per ounce, reaching a high of $36.76 and a low of $36.49 [1][4] - The resistance level for silver is identified at $37.30-$37.40, while the support level is at $35.90-$36.00 [4] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index in the U.S. saw a slight decline amid ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. trade policies, particularly due to President Trump's recent tariff threats [2] - Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper expands the scope of the global trade war, with additional tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals expected soon [2][3] - Investors are awaiting the second-quarter earnings season starting mid-July, feeling reassured by the recent passage of a government spending plan that includes business-friendly tax policies [3]

Group 1 - The opening price of Au99.95 was 771.50, with a closing price of 772.00, reflecting an increase of 4.76 yuan or 0.62% [2] - Au99.99 opened at 766.00 and closed at 771.48, showing an increase of 3.73 yuan or 0.49% [2] - The trading volume for Au99.95 was 184, with a transaction amount of 142,067,800 yuan [2] Group 2 - Au(T+D) opened at 766.10, reached a high of 772.79, and closed at 771.51, with a price increase of 3.96 yuan or 0.52% [3] - The trading volume for Au(T+D) was 28,986, with a transaction amount of 22,344,446,980 yuan [3] - The weighted average price for Au99.95 was 768.99, with a transaction amount of 219,640,770 yuan [3] Group 3 - NYAuTN06 opened at 765.20, peaked at 775.60, and closed at 775.35, reflecting an increase of 4.95 yuan or 0.64% [4] - NYAuTN12 opened at 762.25, reached a high of 773.10, and closed at 772.75, with an increase of 5.1 yuan or 0.66% [4] - The trading volume for NYAuTN06 was 7.4, with a transaction amount of 5,730,300 yuan [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates, continuous gold - buying by central banks globally, and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions on price pull - backs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price was 776.04 yuan/gram, with a change of 0.76 yuan compared to the previous day and - 0.06 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 202,457.00, and the open interest was 33,329.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Gold Spot (T + D)**: The closing price was 770.33 yuan/gram, down 2.93 yuan. The trading volume was 29,774.00, and the open interest was 225,294.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 8,747.00 yuan/kg, down 63.00 yuan. The trading volume was 323,881.00, and the open interest was 249,023.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver Spot (T + D)**: The closing price was 8,737.00 yuan/kg, down 68.00 yuan. The trading volume was 521,320.00, and the open interest was 3,142,008.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,368.70 dollars/ounce, up 30.20 dollars. The trading volume was 129,510.00, and the open interest was 332,177.00 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 0.92 dollars/ounce, up 0.55 dollars. The trading volume was 39,724.00, and the open interest was 131,315.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,335.70 dollars/ounce, up 33.20 dollars [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 36.31 dollars/ounce, down 0.20 dollars [1]. Important Information - **US Situation**: The US House - passed "Great Beauty" bill plans to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars and expand the fiscal deficit by over 3 trillion dollars. The ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected rate - cut time is still September/October/December [1]. - **Eurozone Situation**: The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The manufacturing PMI in June continued to rise, and the CPI annual rate was in line with expectations but higher than the previous value. The market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK Situation**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May. The CPI annual rate in May was in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The manufacturing and service PMI in June were higher than expected. Due to the GDP decline in April, the expectation of an August rate cut is rising, with 2 - 3 rate cuts expected by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan Situation**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January. It may reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of an interest - rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions on price pull - backs. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 730 - 750 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 840 - 900 yuan/gram. For London silver, the support level is around 31 - 34 dollars/ounce and the resistance level is around 38 - 40 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/kg and the resistance level is around 8,900 - 9,100 yuan/kg [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to experience high - level fluctuations. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged due to factors such as the progress of the US fiscal expansion bill, the weakening of the US dollar, and the long - term reshaping of the global order [1][3]. - Silver will have range - bound fluctuations as its logical drivers remain relatively stable, and the ratio of gold to silver has returned to the normal range [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold long positions. Although there is a risk of a high - level pullback, the long - term outlook for copper is positive [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure. In the long run, there is an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, so opportunities to short on rallies should be grasped [1][9]. - Lead's rebound is under pressure due to an expected increase in supply in July and unoptimistic downstream battery consumption [1]. - Tin's rebound is also under pressure as the supply from Myanmar's tin mines has not recovered and the consumption in the terminal field has entered the off - season [1]. - Aluminum is in a short - term rebound trend. However, as the terminal enters the off - season, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [1][12]. - Nickel is under pressure. The cost support has weakened, and the downstream stainless - steel industry has inventory accumulation pressure [1][14]. - Industrial silicon's rebound is under pressure. There are rumors of large - scale factory restarts, and the cost support has weakened [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the fundamentals remain in an oversupply situation, and the market has significant differences in downstream production schedules [1][15]. Summary by Variety Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: SHFE gold closed at 776.1, up 1.11% from the previous value, and COMEX gold closed at 3349, up 1.01%. SHFE silver closed at 8810, up 0.55%, and COMEX silver closed at 36, down 0.30%. The Shanghai gold - to - silver ratio was 88.09, up 0.56% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The US fiscal expansion bill has made progress. The US Senate passed the "Great Beauty" bill on July 1st, including a $4.5 - trillion tax cut and a $1.2 - trillion spending cut. Other countries have made compromises in trade negotiations. The US dollar has continued to weaken significantly, with the Bloomberg dollar index falling for six consecutive months in June [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider long - term investment in gold when the price is around 760. Silver will have range - bound fluctuations, with strong support at 8560 [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The closing price of SHFE copper was 80390, up 0.46% from the previous day. The LME copper price was 9934, up 0.66%, and the COMEX copper price was 509.9, down 0.24% [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the processing TC of copper concentrates has dropped to - 43.57 dollars/ton. During the consumption off - season, the demand from the power and new - energy vehicle sectors has offset the lack of demand from traditional sectors such as construction [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions in copper, and take partial profits when the price is high. Be vigilant about the risk of a high - level pullback. In the short term, focus on the range of [78500, 81000] for SHFE copper and [9700, 9900] dollars/ton for LME copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of SHFE zinc was 22175, down 0.36% from the previous day. The LME zinc price was 2713.5, down 1.00% [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc mines is expected to be more abundant. Although there was a strike at a large zinc smelter in Peru, the overall supply of zinc mines is at a high level, and the TC has continued to rebound. Domestic inventories have slightly increased, and the downstream galvanizing enterprises' performance is lower than in previous years [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is under pressure. In the long run, short on rallies. Focus on the range of [22000, 22600] for SHFE zinc and [2650, 2750] dollars/ton for LME zinc [9][10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of LME aluminum was 2602 dollars/ton, up 0.17%, and the closing price of SHFE aluminum was 20635 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The price of alumina was under pressure and declined [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - sentiment has improved. However, as the terminal enters the off - season, the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is showing signs of accumulation. For alumina, the import of overseas bauxite remains at a high level, and the domestic production capacity has rebounded [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rallies for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventories. The main operating range is [20000 - 20800]. Alumina will operate in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of LME nickel was 15190 dollars/ton, up 0.43%, and the closing price of SHFE nickel was 120720 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The price of stainless steel also declined [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of nickel mines from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel mines has decreased, weakening the cost support. The domestic refined nickel inventory has increased, and the stainless - steel industry is facing inventory accumulation pressure during the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2509 of lithium carbonate closed at 62780 yuan/ton, up 0.84%. The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17598 tons, up 1.79%, and the weekly inventory was 136837 tons, up 1.44% [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: There are significant differences in the market's expectations for downstream production schedules. In the long - term, the supply of lithium carbonate exceeds demand, and the total inventory continues to reach new highs [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies within the range of [61800 - 63300] [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It offers insights into price trends, fundamental data, and news events affecting each commodity, along with trend strength indicators and trading strategies [2][11][24] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: With rising expectations of interest rate cuts, the gold price is showing an upward trend. The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. Key data includes price, trading volume, open interest, ETF holdings, and inventory levels [2][6][9] - **Silver**: Continuing to rise, the trend strength is 1, suggesting a bullish outlook. Similar to gold, it also provides price, trading volume, open interest, ETF holdings, and inventory data [2][6][9] Base Metals - **Copper**: Supported by strong spot prices, the copper price is expected to remain stable. The trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish outlook. The report presents data on futures and spot prices, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and spreads, along with macro and industry news [11][13] - **Zinc**: The fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of -1, suggesting a bearish outlook. It provides data on prices, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and inventory, as well as relevant news [14][15] - **Lead**: With expectations of a peak season, the lead price is supported. The trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish outlook. The report includes price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and inventory data, along with news [17][18] - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, the tin price is on the rise. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. It provides data on futures and spot prices, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and spreads, along with macro and industry news [20][21][22] - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is weakening, and the smelting end limits the upside potential. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. It presents data on prices, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant industry news [24][27] - **Stainless Steel**: Inventory is slightly decreasing, and the steel price is recovering with limited elasticity. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Similar to nickel, it provides relevant data and news [24][27] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Spot trading is light, and the price is oscillating weakly. The trend strength is -1, suggesting a bearish outlook. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and inventory data, along with macro and industry news [28][30] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply disruptions from the upstream are increasing, and market sentiment needs to be monitored. The trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish outlook. It presents data on prices, trading volume, open interest, spreads, inventory, and relevant news [31][33] - **Polysilicon**: Market news is continuously disturbing, and the upside space needs to be watched. The trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish outlook. Similar to industrial silicon, it provides relevant data and news [31][33] - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and the price is oscillating widely. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [34] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are oscillating widely. The trend strength for both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. They provide price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [36][37][39] - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by sector sentiment, they are oscillating weakly. The trend strength for both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. They provide price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [41][43] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by downstream environmental protection - related production cuts, they are oscillating weakly. The trend strength for both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. They provide price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [45][46][48] - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, and relevant news [50][52][53] - **Log**: The main contract is switching, and the price is oscillating widely. The trend strength is -1, suggesting a bearish outlook. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [54][56] - **Paraxylene**: Consider positive spreads on dips. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [57][63] - **PTA**: Go long on PX and short on PTA. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Similar to paraxylene, it provides relevant data and news [57][63] - **MEG**: Take profit on the long PTA and short MEG strategy. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. It provides relevant data and news [57][63] - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Both are oscillating. The trend strength for both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. They provide price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [30][32][64] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating in a narrow range. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [34] - **LLDPE**: Oscillating in the short term. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [36] - **PP**: Spot prices are falling, and trading is dull. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [38] - **Caustic Soda**: Spot price cuts are not over, and the impact of liquid chlorine needs to be monitored. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [39] - **Pulp**: Oscillating. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [43] - **Methanol and Urea**: Both are oscillating in the short term. The trend strength for both is not provided. They provide price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [44][46] - **Styrene**: Oscillating in the short term. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [48] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [50] - **LPG**: Oscillating in the short term. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [51] - **PVC**: The trend is weak. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [54] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The improvement in the fundamentals of the producing areas is limited, and the price is bottom - grinding. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [63] - **Soybean Oil**: There is insufficient speculation about US soybean weather, and there is a lack of driving force. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [63] - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans closed flat, and the domestic soybean meal may rebound and oscillate. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [65] - **Soybean No.1**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price may oscillate. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [65] - **Corn**: Oscillating. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [67] - **Sugar**: Weakly operating. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [68] - **Cotton**: Lacking effective driving force, the price is oscillating. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [69] - **Egg**: The peak season is approaching, and it is difficult to increase the culling rate. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [71] - **Live Pig**: Anticipating the de - stocking logic in July. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [72] - **Peanut**: There is support at the bottom. The trend strength is not provided. It provides price, trading volume, open interest, spreads, and relevant news [73]

流动性进一步宽松，贵金属板块展望 20250701 摘要 特朗普政府关税威胁及非农数据下滑曾引发市场波动，推动金价上涨， 但贸易紧张局势缓解后金价高位横盘。关注 2025 年下半年，预计流动 性宽松和风险偏好上行将继续支撑金价。 大美丽法案预计未来十年增加 2.4 万亿美元财政赤字，短期内加剧债务 压力并削弱美元信用，利好黄金等贵金属。美国国会预算办公室预测该 法案将显著增加财政支出，进一步加剧美元信用担忧。 短期投资建议关注受益于流动性宽松和风险偏好上行的贵金属与工业金 属组合，如黄金与铜或白银组合，并关注中报可能业绩超预期的标的， 如山东黄金等公司。 调降银行资本杠杆率（SLR）以刺激银行购买美债的空间有限。即使放 松监管，每年增加的购债规模也远小于未来几年的巨额财政支出，化债 效果可能不明显。 稳定币与美债需求绑定，可能带来短期限国库券购买需求，但长期美债 需求仍是重点。新增需求可能被高估，实际效果有待观察。渣打银行预 测到 2028 年稳定币规模可达 2 万亿美元。 Q&A 2025 年上半年贵金属市场的表现如何？主要驱动因素是什么？ 2025 年上半年，黄金价格上涨了 24%，在 4 月 22 日达 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: -1 (Weakly bearish) [9] - Silver: 1 (Weakly bullish) [9] - Copper: 0 (Neutral) [13] - Tin: 0 (Neutral) [16] - Nickel: 0 (Neutral) [21] - Stainless Steel: 0 (Neutral) [21] - Lithium Carbonate: -1 (Weakly bearish) [24] - Industrial Silicon: 0 (Neutral) [27] - Polysilicon: -1 (Weakly bearish) [27] - Iron Ore: -1 (Weakly bearish) [28] - Rebar: 0 (Neutral) [32] - Hot - Rolled Coil: 0 (Neutral) [32] - Ferrosilicon: 0 (Neutral) [37] - Silicomanganese: 0 (Neutral) [37] - Coke: 0 (Neutral) [41] - Coking Coal: 0 (Neutral) [41] - Thermal Coal: 0 (Neutral) [46] - Logs: -1 (Weakly bearish) [49] - Rubber: 0 (Neutral) [51] - Synthetic Rubber: 0 (Neutral) [58] - LLDPE: 0 (Neutral) [61] - PP: -1 (Weakly bearish) [65] - Caustic Soda: -1 (Weakly bearish) [71] - Pulp: 0 (Neutral) [75] - Glass: -1 (Weakly bearish) [81] - Methanol: 0 (Neutral) [86] - Urea: 0 (Neutral) [90] - Styrene: -1 (Weakly bearish) [92] - Soda Ash: -1 (Weakly bearish) [98] - LPG: 0 (Neutral) [107] - PVC: -1 (Weakly bearish) [115] - Fuel Oil: 0 (Neutral) [116] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: 0 (Neutral) [116] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): 0 (Neutral) [132] - Staple Fiber: 0 (Neutral) [135] - Bottle Chip: 0 (Neutral) [135] - Offset Printing Paper: 0 (Neutral) [138] - Palm Oil: 0 (Neutral) [147] - Soybean Oil: 0 (Neutral) [147] - Soybean Meal: +1 (Weakly bullish) [150] - Soybean: +1 (Weakly bullish) [150] - Corn: 0 (Neutral) [153] - Sugar: -1 (Weakly bearish) [157] - Cotton: 0 (Neutral) [163] - Peanut: 0 (Neutral) [166] 2. Report's Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives investment ratings and trend analysis for each commodity [1][2]. - For each commodity, it presents detailed fundamental data, such as prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads, and also includes relevant macro and industry news [6][11][15]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical cease - fire, with a trend strength of -1, prices may be under pressure [2][9]. - **Silver**: Continuing to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive sentiment, firm prices, with a neutral trend strength. China's manufacturing PMI improvement, trade agreement hopes, and some industry developments affect the market [11][13]. - **Tin**: Tight current situation but weak expectations, neutral trend strength [14][16]. - **Nickel**: Support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upside potential, neutral trend [18][21]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventory is slightly decreasing, steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity, neutral trend [18][21]. Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The contradiction of warehouse receipts is relieved, and the price is running weakly, with a trend strength of -1 [22][24]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Upstream factories are resuming production, and the futures price may回调, neutral trend [25][27]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the actual spot trading situation, with a trend strength of -1 [25][27]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with a wide - range shock, trend strength of -1 [28]. - **Rebar**: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [30][32]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [31][32]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [35][37]. - **Silicomanganese**: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [35][37]. - **Coke**: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [38][41]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by news, wide - range shock, neutral trend [39][41]. - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing with a shock, neutral trend [43][46]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The near - term fundamental improvement in the producing area is limited, neutral trend [4][140]. - **Soybean Oil**: The old - crop soybean inventory in the US is high, and the new - crop planting area is slightly reduced, neutral trend [4][140]. - **Soybean Meal**: After the report is released, the US soybeans rise slightly, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate, trend strength of +1 [148][150]. - **Soybean**: May rebound and fluctuate, trend strength of +1 [148][150]. - **Corn**: Fluctuating, neutral trend [60][151]. - **Sugar**: Strong in the domestic market but weak overseas, trend strength of -1 [61][157]. - **Cotton**: Lacking effective drivers, the price rises and then falls back, neutral trend [62][163]. - **Peanut**: There is support at the bottom, neutral trend [64][166]. Others - **Logs**: The main contract is switching, wide - range shock, trend strength of -1 [47][49]. - **Rubber**: Fluctuating, neutral trend [50][51]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [56][58]. - **LLDPE**: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [59][61]. - **PP**: Spot price fluctuates, trading is light, trend strength of -1 [64][65]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the later period, trend strength of -1 [67][71]. - **Pulp**: Fluctuating, neutral trend [73][75]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, trend strength of -1 [79][81]. - **Methanol**: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [83][86]. - **Urea**: Fluctuating under pressure, neutral trend [87][90]. - **Styrene**: Short - term fluctuation, trend strength of -1 [92]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little, trend strength of -1 [96][98]. - **LPG**: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [100][107]. - **PVC**: The trend is weak, trend strength of -1 [112][115]. - **Fuel Oil**: The weakness continues, and short - term fluctuations decrease, neutral trend [116]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Mainly in an oscillating adjustment trend, the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise, neutral trend [116]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Temporarily on the sidelines, pay attention to the price - holding ability in late July, neutral trend [118][132]. - **Staple Fiber**: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [133][135]. - **Bottle Chip**: Short - term fluctuation, long PR and short PF strategy, neutral trend [133][135]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Fluctuating, neutral trend [137][138].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].