Employment Market - The US private sector added 41,000 jobs in December, reversing a decline of 29,000 jobs in November, indicating a slight recovery in the labor market [1] - Job growth is heavily concentrated in the service sector, with education and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs and leisure and hospitality adding 24,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector lost 3,000 jobs, including a net loss of 5,000 jobs in manufacturing [2] - There is a significant regional and enterprise size disparity, with robust job growth in the South and Northeast, while the West saw a reduction of 61,000 jobs, and large enterprises are nearly halting recruitment, relying heavily on small and medium enterprises for job growth [2] Job Openings and Labor Market Dynamics - The number of job openings in the US fell to 7.146 million in November, the lowest level since September 2024, and significantly below the market expectation of 7.6 million, reflecting weakened hiring intentions among employers [4] - The current labor market is characterized by "low hiring, low layoffs," indicating a decline in growth momentum, similar to a "stagflation" scenario in the US economy [4] - Wage growth is slowing, with annual salary increases for retained employees stabilizing at 4.4%, while the increase for job switchers rose slightly to 6.6%, but remains below mid-year highs, indicating a soft landing for wages and reduced inflation rebound risks [4] PMI Trends - The divergence between the ISM manufacturing and services PMI highlights structural imbalances in the US economy, with the services PMI rising to 54.4, the highest since October 2024, driven by resilient consumer spending and eased financial conditions [6] - Conversely, the manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in December, the lowest since October 2024, remaining below the 50 mark, indicating contraction [6] - The persistent weakness in manufacturing is attributed to three main pressures: slowing global demand, ongoing inventory destocking, and increased tariffs raising production costs [8] Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The moderate recovery in the US employment market has avoided recession risks, with strong service sector performance supporting economic resilience, while easing inflation pressures provide room for policy adjustments [12] - However, declining job vacancy rates, manufacturing contraction, and economic structural disparities suggest that the recovery foundation is not solid [12] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will face challenges in precise adjustments, with market expectations pointing to potential rate cuts in the second quarter of 2026, contingent on continued weak non-farm data [12] Economic Disparities - The K-shaped economic recovery is becoming more pronounced, with high-income groups benefiting from financial market recovery and service sector growth, while low- and middle-income households face pressures from housing and healthcare costs [14] - This disparity undermines the inclusivity of the economic recovery and may further suppress sustained consumer market growth, leading to potential financial crises if consumption stalls [14]

Group 1 - The Hangzhou Production Service Industry Promotion Association held its first second member meeting, reviewing the annual work report and releasing the first blue book on production service industry development in Hangzhou, titled "2025 Hangzhou Production Service Industry Development Report" [1] - The service industry development level is a key indicator of urban modernization, with the city's service industry value added exceeding 1.2 trillion yuan, contributing 76.2% to GDP, and accounting for 74.3% of GDP by the third quarter of 2025 [1] - The production service industry contributes over 60% to the service industry and more than 70% to the city's tax revenue, serving as a core engine for stable economic growth [1] Group 2 - The association aims to build a platform for member enterprises to exchange and cooperate, with its first batch of 603 member units accounting for 82% of the city's production service industry revenue and 77% of the service industry [2] - Awards were given to outstanding member enterprises, including "Outstanding Contribution Award" to 10 companies and "Excellent Organization Award" to another 10 companies, highlighting the active participation of members [2] - A special report was presented by Huang Xianhai, emphasizing the importance of technological and industrial innovation integration to support and amplify new productive forces during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]

格隆汇1月8日｜瑞士宝盛新世纪思维研究部主管Carsten Menke表示，贵金属市场出现愈来愈多投机迹 象，导致价格剧烈波动，但驱动因素似乎更多来自资金流动而非基本面。尽管贵金属价格伴随当前贵金 属市场尤其金银基本面向好的背景，他把贵金属市场的急剧波动解读为投机参与度上升。虽然他认为委 内瑞拉总统马杜罗被捕不会对市场产生基本面影响，但事件似乎助长市场看涨黄金的情绪。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful poverty alleviation efforts in Laziz Village, Gansu Province, led by China Cinda Gansu Branch, which has significantly improved the living conditions and income of the villagers through various initiatives over the past 14 years [1][7]. Group 1: Poverty Alleviation Achievements - Laziz Village achieved complete poverty alleviation in 2019, with 279 households and 1,230 villagers escaping poverty [1]. - The average disposable income of villagers increased from 3,400 yuan in 2013 to 18,673 yuan by 2025 [1]. Group 2: Educational Support - The company emphasizes education as a fundamental strategy for poverty alleviation, providing support to local schools, including donations of teaching materials and infrastructure improvements [2]. - Over 14 years, the company has awarded 1.95 million yuan in scholarships to 48 students and 503,000 yuan to over 400 students who progressed to higher education [2]. Group 3: Agricultural Development - The company has focused on developing local agricultural industries, particularly through the cultivation of traditional Chinese medicinal herbs and the breeding of pigs and bees, with cash subsidies of 320 yuan per acre for participating farmers [4][5]. - As of now, villagers have cultivated over 1,500 acres of medicinal herbs and raised 500 bee colonies, contributing to the growth of the local economy [4]. Group 4: Community Support and Infrastructure - The company has provided significant financial and material support, totaling 48.27 million yuan in donations and 33.02 million yuan in material contributions to improve living conditions in Laziz Village [8]. - Initiatives include the renovation of office spaces, housing repairs, and the installation of solar lighting to enhance safety and accessibility for villagers [8]. Group 5: Corporate Social Responsibility - The company actively engages in community welfare, including emergency support during crises, such as providing coal for heating during winter [7]. - The company collaborates with local banks and organizations to further enhance community support and educational funding [7].

Core Insights - The "Northbound Vehicle Policy" has significantly enhanced cross-border travel and commerce between Macau and mainland China, marking three years of successful implementation with impressive growth in vehicle traffic and integration within the Greater Bay Area [4][8][14] Group 1: Policy Impact - The policy has led to a remarkable increase in vehicle crossings, with 4.393 million crossings recorded in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [4] - The average daily vehicle traffic at the Zhuhai port has surged, with peak daily crossings exceeding 28,000 vehicles [7] - The total number of vehicles crossing the bridge in 2025 is projected to reach 6.808 million, representing a 22.5% increase year-on-year [8] Group 2: Changes in Lifestyle - The policy has transformed the lifestyle of Macau residents, making cross-border travel a regular part of daily life, with many now frequently visiting cities like Zhuhai and Guangzhou for shopping and leisure [6][9] - The convenience of crossing has led to a rise in cross-border consumption, with families regularly traveling for various activities, thus enriching their experiences [10] Group 3: Economic Opportunities - The policy has opened new avenues for small and medium-sized enterprises in Macau, allowing them to expand their market reach and optimize resource allocation [12] - Entrepreneurs have leveraged the policy to enhance operational efficiency, with some relocating their businesses to Zhuhai to benefit from lower costs and better access to resources [11] - Traditional industries, such as local specialty shops, have successfully entered the mainland market, achieving significant sales growth through improved logistics and distribution [11] Group 4: Future Prospects - The ongoing development of the "Northbound Vehicle Policy" is expected to further enhance the integration of the Greater Bay Area, promoting high-quality economic collaboration and cultural exchange [13][14] - Future initiatives will focus on technological advancements to streamline customs processes, aiming for even more efficient and seamless cross-border travel experiences [13]

Futures Market - On January 7, ICE cotton futures retreated from earlier gains, influenced by falling oil prices and a stronger US dollar, with the most active March cotton futures contract down by 0.21 cents or 0.32%, settling at 64.85 cents per pound [1] - Speculative buying earlier in the day had initially supported cotton prices, with Price Futures Group's vice president suggesting a slight decline in US cotton production this year, which may provide some support for cotton prices later in the year [1] - The drop in oil prices is pressuring cotton prices as it makes polyester, a cotton substitute, relatively cheaper, thereby reducing demand for natural cotton [1] Export Data - Brazil's cotton exports in December reached 452,500 tons, boosted by demand from Asian countries, marking a 28.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Brazil is the world's largest cotton exporter, with production for the 2024/25 season expected to reach a record high of over 4 million tons [1] Inventory and Market Trends - As of January 6, ICE deliverable No. 2 cotton contract inventory stood at 11,510 bales, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The US dollar index has risen, while the S&P 500 index closed lower due to declines in financial stocks, although Nvidia and Alphabet helped lift the Nasdaq index as investors shifted towards AI-related stocks [2] - Oil prices have decreased for the second consecutive day as investors digest a deal by President Trump to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan oil, which will increase supply for the world's largest oil consumer [2] Spot Market - On January 7, the Cotlook A Index was reported at 75.05 cents per pound, an increase of 35 points [3]

Core Viewpoint - China is expected to surpass the rest of the world in AI computing power due to its significant advantage in large-scale electricity supply, as stated by Elon Musk [1] Group 1: Electricity Supply and AI Competition - Musk estimates that by 2026, China's electricity generation could reach approximately three times that of the United States, enabling the support of high-energy AI data centers [1] - A report from Goldman Sachs indicates that power shortages may slow down the U.S. progress in the AI race, highlighting that stable and sufficient electricity supply could be a key factor in shaping this competition [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, China may have around 400 gigawatts of surplus electricity capacity, more than three times the current total electricity demand of global data centers [2][4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Energy Development - Huang Renxun, CEO of Nvidia, emphasized the importance of energy in the AI race, noting that China's infrastructure development speed and electricity supply capabilities are significantly ahead [5] - Huang simplified AI into five layers, stating that without energy, it is impossible to build chip factories, supercomputers, and AI data centers, despite the U.S. leading in chip technology [5] - The construction timeline for a new data center in the U.S. is approximately three years, while China can complete a hospital in a weekend, showcasing the disparity in infrastructure development speed [6] Group 3: Challenges in the U.S. Energy Sector - U.S. tech companies are building their own power plants for data centers, but expanding the U.S. power grid is challenging due to complex and unstable permitting policies [7] - The U.S. solar industry association has indicated that the country's position as a global AI leader is hindered by insufficient transmission capacity and regulatory obstacles [7] - Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that between 2025 and 2028, the electricity gap for U.S. data centers is expected to reach 44 gigawatts, indicating a growing disparity in energy supply compared to China [7]

与此同时，美国总统特朗普持续威胁要吞并格陵兰岛，这也成为市场面临的一个潜在风险。风险因素的 不断累积，为国际黄金价格在2026年初的上涨提供了关键动力。值得注意的是，地缘政治风险并非国际 黄金市场的唯一影响因素。 2026年，美联储的降息倾向以及美联储主席换届，均在一定程度上利好国际黄金市场的表现。2025年9 月，美联储正式开启降息周期，并且在2025年最后的三场货币政策会议上连续降息。进入2026年，美联 储内部对于下一步应该如何调整货币政策路径依然存在分歧。 2026年伊始，国际金价延续了2025年的火热势头。1月6日，国际现货黄金价格一度站上4500美元/盎 司，虽有波动，但总体而言，国际黄金价格仍维持在高位。2026年开年，美国与委内瑞拉之间的地缘政 治冲突点燃了市场的避险情绪，黄金作为重要的避险资产，继续受到市场投资者的追捧。 明尼阿波利斯联储行长卡什卡利表示，美联储距离停止降息已经非常接近。现在的政策立场已经非常接 近中性。需要有更多的数据来判断，究竟是通胀问题更突出，还是劳动力市场更值得担忧。 尽管当前美联储内部对后续的货币政策路径存在一定的分歧，但从目前的情况看，美联储在2026年可能 至少 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in gold and silver prices due to profit-taking by short-term traders and strong technical resistance at historical high levels [1][2] - February 2026 gold futures fell by 0.65% to $4467.1 per ounce, while March silver futures dropped by 3.77% to $77.98 per ounce [1][2] - The recent volatility in gold prices follows a peak in autumn 2025, despite achieving the best annual performance since 1979 due to central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and currency depreciation [1] Group 2 - The ISM reported that the U.S. services PMI rose to 54.4 in December 2025, surpassing the previous month's 52.6 and exceeding economists' expectations of 52.3 [2] - The U.S. Labor Department reported that job vacancies in November 2025 were 7.15 million, a decrease of 885,000 from the same month in 2024 and the lowest level since March 2021 [2] - The employment data released showed that the U.S. added only 41,000 jobs in December 2025, falling short of the expected 49,000 [1]

盘前要闻 1、八部门：到2027年中国人工智能关键核心技术实现安全可靠供给 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 工信部等八部门印发《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》，意见指出，到2027年，我国人工智能关 键核心技术实现安全可靠供给。意见还指出，推动智能芯片软硬协同发展，支持突破高端训练芯片、人 工智能服务器、智算云操作系统等关键核心技术。 2、锂电"反内卷"力度升级：多部门联合召开动力储能电池行业座谈会 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 1月7日，多部门联合召开动力和储能电池行业座谈会，研究部署规范产业竞争秩序相关工作。有知情人 士透露，参会企业包括国内Top10的动力电池企业、几家头部储能电池企业和集成商等，共计10余家。 有参会人士透露，此次会议总体围绕行业"反内卷"工作，包括要求企业实现控产能、管价格战、保护专 利等内容。 3、央行今日开展1.1万亿买断式逆回购操作，专家称月内将继续注入流动性 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 机构观点 央行1月8日将开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月。考虑到今日有11000亿买断式逆回购到 期，本次操作为等量续作。专家预计央行将于1月15日左右开展6个月期买断式逆回购 ...