Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that aluminum producers will benefit from higher profit margins by 2025 due to falling raw material prices and a tightening global aluminum market [1] - The firm has raised target prices for several companies, including China Hongqiao from HKD 15.4 to HKD 19.8 and China Aluminum from RMB 8.7 and HKD 5.5 to RMB 9.1 and HKD 7, while lowering Nanshan Aluminum's target price from RMB 5.2 to RMB 5 [1] - The transition from a shortage of alumina in 2024 to a surplus in 2025 is expected to drive this change, with increased supply from coastal China and Guinea [2] Group 2 - Factors driving aluminum demand include Germany's new spending plan boosting construction and transportation needs, resilient demand from China's energy transition and automotive sectors, and a projected 1% demand growth in the US by 2025 [3] - The commodity research team anticipates a 4 million ton surplus in the global alumina market by 2025, increasing to 11 million tons by 2026, with alumina prices expected to drop to $350/ton in Q2 and stabilize between $350-$400/ton thereafter [4] - Companies expected to benefit from these trends include Alcoa in the US, Norsk Hydro in Europe, China Hongqiao and China Aluminum in China, and S32 and Rio Tinto in Australia [5] Group 3 - The increase in US tariffs on imported aluminum and related products may have a limited impact on China but will raise production costs for US manufacturers, potentially altering global aluminum trade flows and increasing costs for downstream users in the US [6]

商品日报 20250401 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：关税预期加剧避险交易，国内 Q2 经济或将降温 海外方面，关税扰动加剧市场避险情绪，外媒称特朗普再度考虑"全面高关税"，覆盖 面更广、税率更高的方案（其中一项选择是高达 20%的全球性关税，几乎覆盖全部美国贸易 伙伴）。美元指数收涨于 104.2，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.21%，美股低开高走，金价创下 3127 美元新高，铜价连续 4 日回调，油价在特朗普供给扰动预期下上涨超 3%。今日关注美国 3 月 ISM 制造业 PMI，以及关税落地前相关动态。 国内方面，3 月制造业 PMI 录得 50.5 略超预期，新订单、新出口订单为主要拉动项， 而价格、进口、库存分项偏弱；3 月建筑业、服务业 PMI 分别录得 53.4、50.3，处于历史同 期低位，表明一季度企业在关税落地前抢出口，但"量升价跌"迹象尚未显著缓解。步入二 季度，抢出口、消费政策脉冲效应减弱，经济或将环比降温。特朗普关税加码预期扰动全球 风险资产，A 股小幅放量收跌，北证、 ...

Meeting Information - The 2024 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders for Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. will be convened by the company's ninth board of directors [1][2] - The meeting will take place on April 21, 2025, with online voting available from 9:15 AM to 3:00 PM [2] - The record date for shareholders to attend the meeting is April 15, 2025 [2] Voting and Attendance - Shareholders registered by the close of trading on the record date are entitled to attend the meeting and vote [2][6] - The meeting will be held at the company's office building in Jiaozuo, Henan Province [2] - Shareholders must register to attend the meeting by April 16, 2025, and can do so via mail, fax, or in person [6] Agenda and Proposals - The meeting will review various proposals, including the annual report and profit distribution plan for 2024 [4][7] - Independent directors will present their reports during the meeting [4] Voting Procedures - Shareholders can vote through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange trading system or the internet voting system [6][8] - Specific procedures for online voting are provided, ensuring that the first valid vote will be counted in case of multiple votes on the same proposal [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 3.92 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.83 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.03%. The non-recurring net profit was 4.91 billion CNY, up 80.77% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects significant growth from its Indonesian operations, with plans to invest 60.6 billion CNY in a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project and 63.3 billion CNY for a 2 million-ton alumina capacity [4]. - The automotive sheet market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with the company being a leader in this segment, currently having a production capacity of 200,000 tons and plans for an additional 200,000 tons [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's net profit was 1.34 billion CNY, a slight increase of 0.59% year-on-year and 2.96% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit for the same period was 1.50 billion CNY, up 134.50% year-on-year and 19.70% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.9 CNY per 10 shares, leading to a total dividend payout of 1.976 billion CNY for 2024, with a payout ratio of 40.92% [3]. Production and Pricing - The company achieved full production capacity of 680,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum domestically, with an expected production of 678,200 tons in 2024. The Indonesian alumina production is projected to reach 500,000 tons in Q4 2024 [2]. - The market prices for aluminum and alumina increased significantly in Q4 2024, with aluminum prices rising by 973 CNY/ton and alumina prices by 1,397 CNY/ton [2]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.96 billion CNY, 5.15 billion CNY, and 5.35 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a consistent PE ratio of 9x during these years [4][6].

"南山村委会"上市第四家公司 南山铝业国际董事长 郝维松：将进一步扩大产能、增加ESG投入 3月25日，南山铝业（600219）国际（HK02610）在港交所挂牌上市。南山铝业国际为南山铝业 （SH600219）分拆而来的国际化业务平台。 上市当天（3月25日），南山铝业收盘价为25.24港元/股，较发行价26.6港元/股下跌5.08%，当日成 交额3.41亿港元。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，在3月25日上午的上市仪式现场，南山铝业国际董事长郝维松表 示，在港成功上市标志着公司迈入产业与资本融合的全新发展阶段。"我们将以上市为契机，进一步扩 大产能，提升规模经济效益，加强资源整合及创新，增加ESG投入。"郝维松表示。 值得注意的是，南山控股（002314）有限公司（以下简称南山控股）董事长宋作文、副董事长宋英 豪也出席了上市仪式。 "创三代"上台敲上市锣 天眼查显示，南山控股为南山集团有限公司（以下简称南山集团）旗下公司。南山集团控股股东及 实控人为龙口市东江街道南山村村民委员会（以下简称南山村委会），南山村委会对南山集团持股 51%，宋作文之子宋建波持股49%。 南山集团前身为1979年前后成立的村办企业 ...