2025 年下半年消费品投资策略 20250618 摘要 城镇化率成熟及居民消费时间受限是服务消费增长的制约因素，但鼓励 带薪休假等政策及年轻人就业偏好或将推动服务消费提升。 连续下跌四年的资产已充分反映悲观预期，一旦出现乐观因素，股价弹 性较大。2025 年上半年医药、社会服务等行业表现良好，房地产股票 指数和白酒板块存在修复绝对收益空间。 医药行业经历四年调整后表现火爆，创新药及相关产业链标的值得关注。 恒瑞医药、康缘药业和首药控股等公司具备增长潜力。 传媒领域首推潮玩方向，如泡泡玛特，预计 2025 年净利润可观，需求 端表现强劲，但需关注供应链问题及黄牛囤货对消费者长期购买热情的 影响。 下半年汽车行业需求受以旧换新政策和财政补贴影响，中高端市场关注 理想汽车和江淮汽车，中低端市场聚焦比亚迪、吉利等龙头企业。零部 件领域关注福耀玻璃、双环等公司。 纺织服装行业内需复苏是重要做多线索，下半年低基数窗口开启，推荐 高性能运动户外、折扣零售、睡眠经济、母婴消费以及国潮学院风 IP 高 端服饰等五个方向。 家电行业以旧换新政策打破悲观预期，内需市场延续高增长，出口方面 新兴市场弥补北美市场缺口。推荐海尔智家， ...

金十数据6月19日讯，近日，上海证券交易所与卡塔尔金融中心在上海联合举办"卡塔尔金融中心投资合 作培训"，来自能源、建筑、医药、信息技术、金融、制造等行业的37家沪深上市公司及拟上市公司的 52名企业代表参会。培训围绕卡塔尔投资环境、运营实践及融资政策等内容展开深入交流，一方面帮助 参会企业进一步加深对中东地区营商环境的认识，将投资视野从沙特、阿联酋等国家延伸至卡塔尔；另 一方面展现我国优质上市公司高质量发展成果及拥抱国际化的积极意愿，为中国企业开拓中东市场及推 动中卡市场合作挖掘新机遇。 （上交所） 上交所举办卡塔尔金融中心投资合作培训 ...

Group 1 - The macro environment is improving, with growth sectors becoming market focal points, and the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its upward trend due to multiple supportive factors [1] - Despite uncertainties in the short-term US-China trade negotiations affecting risk appetite and profit expectations, positive factors are accumulating to support further upward movement in the Hong Kong market [1] - The mid-term perspective indicates that policy efforts will drive fundamental recovery, and with continuous improvement in liquidity, the valuation center of Hong Kong stocks may rise, particularly in the technology sector benefiting from accelerated AI applications [1] Group 2 - In terms of industry selection, high dividend sectors and essential consumer goods can serve as defensive positions amid expected market volatility in the third quarter [2] - The third quarter may provide good opportunities for positioning, especially if the trend of expansion and increased allocation in Hong Kong stocks is established [2] - There is potential for increasing allocations in technology and consumer sectors, focusing on recovery opportunities in the second half of the real estate cycle, including internet consumption, pharmaceuticals, and mass consumer goods [2] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs include the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) for internet AI, the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) for innovative pharmaceuticals, and the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) for new consumption paradigms [3]

近期， 港股医疗、科技、消费、红利、金融板块持续走高，形成港股"五朵金花"格局 。同时，恒生沪 深港通AH股溢价指数创出近五年新低，反映出H股相对A股的折价大幅收窄，部分龙头股甚至出现H股 溢价。 为何这五大板块表现亮眼？港股"五朵金花"成色如何？背后是价值回归还是资金博弈？未来行情是否具 有持续性？围绕这些问题，中国证券报记者采访了多位机构人士。 资金捧出港股"五朵金花" Choice数据显示，截至6月17日，今年以来南向资金累计净买入港股逾6900亿港元，超过2024年全年南 向资金净买入8079亿港元的85%。从细分领域来看，医疗、科技、消费、红利和金融板块涨幅居前，形 成港股"五朵金花"格局。 从ETF产品来看，据Choice统计， 从今年年初至6月17日，全市场涨幅前15名的ETF均为港股医药主 题，区间涨幅均超40%；黄金主题ETF居涨幅榜第二梯队；第三梯队是多只港股通科技ETF和港股通互 联网ETF，区间涨幅超过25%；港股金融ETF和港股非银ETF均涨超20%， 并在近日 创历史新高，香港 证券ETF涨超15%，也在历史高点附近；多只港股消费主题ETF涨幅在20%左右；多只港股红利主题ETF ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing structural highlights with five key sectors—medical, technology, consumer, dividend, and finance—showing strong performance, forming a "five flowers" pattern. The narrowing of the AH premium index indicates a significant reduction in the discount of H-shares relative to A-shares, driven by substantial inflows of southbound capital [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 17, southbound capital has net purchased over 690 billion HKD in Hong Kong stocks this year, exceeding 85% of last year's total [1]. - The top-performing ETFs are related to the "five flowers" sectors, with some showing gains of over 40% [1]. - Actively managed funds focusing on innovative drugs and new consumption sectors have reported returns exceeding 60% [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The five key sectors are driven by different factors: - Performance-driven "Davis double hit" in technology and consumer sectors benefiting from AI [2]. - Valuation-driven "Davis double hit" in the medical sector due to improved performance and policy optimization [2]. - Valuation recovery in dividend and finance sectors influenced by A-share mapping and long-term capital seeking stable returns [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts believe the narrowing of the AH premium is primarily a result of value return, with no significant overheating risk in the Hong Kong market [3]. - The overall valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains low on a global scale, making it a continuous area of interest [3]. - The ongoing optimization of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism may further narrow the price gap between AH shares, particularly for high-dividend, low-valuation blue-chip stocks [3].

这届没被生活善待的"二旬老人"，还没来得及享受富贵命，就先得了不少富贵病。 有人被资本做局，在外卖商战下连炫奶茶甜品，让糖尿病找上门；有人日常大鱼大肉配老火靓汤，被"帝王同款"的痛风盯上；还有人不幸邂逅各种过敏 原，人生被迫从一万次的春和景明变成数不尽的氯雷他定。 在过敏大军中，有一些人更是饱受煎熬，皮肤常常长满红疹，伴随着无休无止的瘙痒、夜复一夜的难眠，这样的痛苦绵延数年，直到某天被确诊才看清背 后的"真凶"——特应性皮炎。 这个看似陌生的疾病，怎么就折磨得人深感"此恨绵绵无绝期"？ 越来越多人，被特应性皮炎缠上 一到夏天，反复发作的"湿疹"又让网友办起了吐槽大会，不只成年人，儿童更是"重灾区"，很多家长不得不上网取经、四处求医。不过，人人咒骂的"湿 疹"，可能是特应性皮炎在作祟。 即便去就医，特应性皮炎也很容易被漏诊，像在双肘、双膝等身体部位对称患有皮炎的患者，经常会被诊断为湿疹，但能进一步确诊为特应性皮炎的，却 少之又少 [1]。 实际上，湿疹并不是一种独立的疾病，而是泛指以湿疹性皮肤损害为表现的一系列炎症性疾病 [2]。其发病原因五花八门，像接触性皮炎多因外界刺激物 引起 [3]，感染性皮炎常由病毒、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of various industries, particularly focusing on consumer, technology, and pharmaceutical sectors, highlighting their performance during different economic phases and the potential for recovery in the future [8][10][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market showed a slight decline at the opening but the drop narrowed by the close, with the CSI All Share Index experiencing a minor decrease [1]. - The CSI 300 Index saw a slight increase, while small-cap stocks faced more significant declines [2]. - Consumer stocks are on the rise, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [4]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The technology sector in Hong Kong has recently experienced a downturn after weeks of gains, approaching a state of undervaluation [5][6][7]. - The pharmaceutical sector faced a decline in earnings from 2022 to the first half of 2024, but signs of recovery were noted in early 2024, with significant gains in the first quarter [11]. - The consumer sector has historically faced downturns during economic crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2012-2013 economic slowdown, but has also seen rapid recoveries following stimulus measures [13][16]. Group 3: Economic Cycles - The cyclical nature of industries means that periods of low earnings growth and low valuations are often followed by recovery phases where both earnings and valuations improve [26][28]. - The current consumer sector is compared to the pharmaceutical sector two years ago, indicating it is still in a low phase before a potential recovery [19][28]. - The article emphasizes that all sectors, including finance and energy, experience similar cyclical patterns, suggesting that investment opportunities arise during low periods [20][25].

金融界2025年6月18日消息，汇添富医疗积极成长一年持有混合A(009664) 最新净值0.6747元，增长 0.63%。该基金近1个月收益率16.12%，同类排名61|4668；近6个月收益率31.70%，同类排名103|4512； 今年来收益率35.18%，同类排名89|4534。 简历显示：郑磊先生:中国国籍,复旦大学社会医学与卫生事业管理硕士,曾任国泰君安证券有限公司研究 员、中海基金管理有限责任公司医药行业分析师、2014年12月17日至2017年11月8日任中海医药混合的 基金经理,2015年6月9日至2017年11月8日任中海医疗保健主题股票的基金经理。2017年11月加入汇添富 基金,2018年8月8日至2025年5月23日任添富创新医药混合的基金经理,2019年4月9日至今任汇添富医药保 健混合的基金经理,2020年3月13日至今任汇添富中盘积极成长混合的基金经理。2020年8月21日至今任 汇添富医疗积极成长一年持有期混合型证券投资基金基金经理。2021年3月25日至2022年7月7日任汇添 富健康生活一年持有期混合型证券投资基金的基金经理。 来源：金融界 公开资料显示，汇添富医疗积极成 ...

北京时间6月19日凌晨，美联储将公布最新议息决议，而市场预计此次会议仍不会降息。此前，美国总 统特朗普多次施压美联储主席鲍威尔要求降息，以降低政府债务利息负担。当前美国大量美债即将到期 的背景下，高利率环境会导致政府还债成本增高，进而加重债务负担。如今，美联储主席鲍威尔面临两 难：贸易战所导致的物价上涨，已然使得人们对于通胀预期升温。过快降息可能推升通胀预期，违背美 联储控制通胀的首要政策目标；持续不降息则可能加剧经济衰退风险，高利率环境不利于刺激经济增 长。在第一季度美国经济已出现负增长的情况下，若二季度延续负增长趋势，将标志着美国经济进入技 术性衰退。因此，美联储需兼顾多重因素，这也是当前维持货币政策不变的主要原因。 特朗普发起贸易战的借口是减少美国贸易逆差并推动制造业回流，但这两大目标均未实现，反而加剧了 美国经济衰退风险。美国制造业空心化由来已久，受人力成本过高、制造业大量转移产业链的影响，制 造业萎缩已难以逆转。美国未来的发展也因此出现了一定的不平衡：在制造业空心化的萎缩趋势下，金 融与科技领域却凭借全球资本流入和技术优势持续扩张。受益于美国科技和金融的繁荣，这两个领域的 企业和工作人员也因此受益， ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing volatility with significant movements in technology stocks, particularly in CPU, AI robots, chips, and semiconductors, while other sectors like oil, military, and digital currency are also showing activity [1] - The trading volume is reported at 1.2 trillion, indicating a focus on existing stocks rather than new investments, leading to a "stock game" environment [1] - Certain sectors such as pharmaceuticals, rare earths, and new retail are showing weakness, while some stocks have performed well, with notable gains in specific stocks reaching around 10% [2][3] Group 2 - There is a notable presence of luck in stock selection, with some investors experiencing significant gains while others face losses, particularly in sectors like rare earths [3] - The market sentiment is mixed, with some stocks achieving substantial returns, while others are struggling, indicating a challenging environment for investors [3]