证券研究报告 港股通 2025 年 11 月 26 日│中国香港 互联网 同程公布 3Q25 业绩：收入 55 亿元，yoy+10.4%，基本符合 VA 一致预期 （简称预期）的 54.9 亿元；经营利润 11.6 亿元，超预期 7.5%，经营利润 率持续优化，yoy+1.5pct，主要来自于精细化补贴和费用管控；调整后净利 润 10.6 亿元，超预期 2.8%。公司本季度收入表现基本符合预期，利润超预 期。我们看好国内旅游的需求韧性，同时公司高品质酒店占比提升，带来结 构性改善。维持"买入"评级。 公司收入基本符合预期，酒店/机票价格改善贡献正向驱动 公司 3Q25 收入 55 亿元，yoy+10.4%，基本符合预期。拆分来看,核心 OTA 业务中，住宿及预定服务收入达 15.8 亿元，yoy+14.7%，基本符合预期。 暑期旅游旺季需求释放，同时公司高品质酒店预订占比提升，客房量增长超 20%，而酒店价格止跌回正，成为收入增长正向驱动。交通业务持续稳健增 长，收入 22.09 亿元，yoy+9.0%，主要源于用户的需求增加以及持续丰富 的增值产品及服务，且机票票价止跌，我们预计未来交通业务量将保持稳健 增 ...

Core Viewpoint - Klook Travel, the largest pan-regional experience platform in the Asia-Pacific, has initiated its journey towards a U.S. IPO, aiming to list on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker "KLK" with backing from major underwriters like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley [1] Company Overview - Klook Travel has completed nine rounds of financing, raising over $1 billion, with a recent $100 million round led by Vitruvian Partners in February 2025 [1] - The company has a strong institutional shareholder base, including Sequoia Capital, Matrix Partners, and SoftBank, holding approximately 15.5%, 12.3%, and 11.1% of Class A common stock, respectively [1] Financial Performance - Klook's revenue is projected to grow from $129 million in 2022 to $417 million in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 79.72% [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, Klook reported a 43.5% year-on-year revenue increase to $407 million, indicating sustained high growth [1] - The adjusted EBITDA has shown a continuous reduction in losses, achieving a profit of $6.28 million in the first three quarters of 2025 [5] Business Model - Klook's business model focuses on destination experiences rather than standardized travel products, catering to the unique needs of travelers upon arrival at their destinations [2] - The platform connects a diverse range of local service providers, offering approximately 310,000 experience options across 4,200 destinations as of September 30, 2025 [2] Market Dynamics - The global destination travel experience market is estimated to reach $318.1 billion in 2024, with a projected CAGR of 10% until 2029, significantly outpacing the growth rates of accommodation and flight bookings [7] - The Asia-Pacific region is identified as the core growth engine, with Klook holding the largest market share in the region, where 87% of its users are based [8] Competitive Landscape - Klook faces challenges from established online travel agencies (OTAs) that are increasingly entering the destination experience market, which has traditionally been less penetrated compared to accommodation and flight bookings [9] - The company must balance its global expansion efforts with the need for localized service quality, which requires significant capital investment [9] Customer Engagement - Klook has built a community of over 30,000 creators who generate authentic social media content, enhancing user engagement and trust [3] - The platform's traffic is predominantly organic, with over 70% coming from natural sources, indicating strong brand influence and user loyalty [3] Future Outlook - Klook's growth strategy involves deepening its presence in the Asia-Pacific while accelerating global expansion, with a focus on diversifying revenue streams as user base scales [9] - The company’s ability to enhance brand building, customer service, and user experience will be crucial for maintaining its competitive edge [10]

针对不少消费者反映"平台与酒店说法不一"的情况，去哪儿网公关人员表示，这与平台的代理商模式有关。"平台上有很多代理商，他们会提前和酒店签订 批量的合作合同，也就是批发合同，以比较低的批发价格预留房源。房费越低，取消条款就越严格。这些代理商以低价预留房源后，消费者提出退订，他们 就会按照合同办事，反馈说房源不可取消。" 值得关注的是，在社交平台上，不少消费者讲述相似的经历，认为去哪儿网平台以"酒店拒绝退费"为借口，利用信息差欺骗消费者。 对此，去哪儿网公关人员回应称，退费相关事宜，包括房费到账时间，都是海外酒店、民宿自己的要求，平台没有办法对他们作出限制，只能努力沟通解 决，各个平台都是如此。 去哪儿网表示，海外民宿需要一单一议，每一家民宿情况不同，房费是直接给到民宿老板。尤其是日本的民宿，因为当地服务员工比较少，劳动力稀缺等原 因，他们会把相关流程设置得很长，规定提前多少天预订后就没办法取消，这是因为他们需要留出准备布草、安排打扫等工作的时间。 据凤凰网财经报道，近日，在日本旅游退订潮中，有多名消费者反映，在旅行平台去哪儿网上遇到"退费难"问题。 旅行社员工陈娜（化名）表示，平台提前15天收取酒店费用，入住前 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Ctrip Group-S (09961) maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 733 HKD, supported by steady domestic growth and continued high growth overseas, alongside increased investment returns and expanding user share and influence [1] Group 2 - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 18.367 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, with adjusted EBITDA of 6.346 billion CNY, up 11.73%, and adjusted operating profit of 6.134 billion CNY, up 12.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 19.890 billion CNY, a significant increase of 194.01%, while the adjusted net profit excluding non-recurring items was 19.156 billion CNY, up 221.25% [1] Group 3 - The travel segment saw a rebound in growth, with transportation growth accelerating to 11.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, compared to 10.8% in Q2 2025, driven by peak season and overseas demand [2] - Hotel growth maintained double-digit year-on-year increases, although it showed a sequential slowdown, attributed to normalization factors in both domestic and overseas markets [2] - Group tours have experienced a noticeable slowdown since Q1 2025, continuing into this quarter, influenced by a structural shift towards independent travel and risk factors affecting key destinations in Southeast Asia and East Asia [2] - Business travel revenue showed a recovery, marking the highest growth rate since Q1 2024, indicating a stabilization in business travel demand [2] Group 4 - The company maintained stable growth in operating profit, with a slight decline in gross margin primarily due to the increased share of overseas business and structural factors [3] - Increased marketing investments in Trip since 2025 have been aligned with budget consumption, reflecting competitive pressures in overseas markets, yet these investments have led to rapid growth in overseas Trip and a swift increase in user share [3] - The company has sustained multiple quarters of profit margin improvement, indicating a favorable competitive landscape and high stability and certainty in profits, with smooth progress in overseas markets [3]

摩根士丹利发布研报称，同程旅行(00780)第三季业绩略胜预期，期内收入较该行预期高1%，主要受核 心线上旅游平台(OTA)业务同比增长15%带动，增幅高于国内行业水平，毛利率达65.7%，较该行预期 高1个百分点，因OTA业务占比提高，净利润较该行预期高3%，利润率同比提升1个百分点。该行维持 对其"增持"评级，目标价29港元。 展望第四季，计入并购影响后，预期同程旅行收入将增长10%至15%，当中核心OTA业务增长达15%至 20%。第四季经调整利润指引为7.2亿至7.8亿元人民币，反映全年指引不变，因公司计划稍为加大投入 于新兴出境旅游业务及自有APP。管理层预期2026年核心OTA业务收入有机增长将达低至中十位数。透 过研发及行政效率提升，利润率有望进一步改善约0.5个百分点。 ...

展望第四季，计入并购影响后，预期同程旅行收入将增长10%至15%，当中核心OTA业务增长达15%至 20%。第四季经调整利润指引为7.2亿至7.8亿元人民币，反映全年指引不变，因公司计划稍为加大投入 于新兴出境旅游业务及自有APP。管理层预期2026年核心OTA业务收入有机增长将达低至中十位数。透 过研发及行政效率提升，利润率有望进一步改善约0.5个百分点。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，同程旅行(00780)第三季业绩略胜预期，期内收入较该行预 期高1%，主要受核心线上旅游平台(OTA)业务同比增长15%带动，增幅高于国内行业水平，毛利率达 65.7%，较该行预期高1个百分点，因OTA业务占比提高，净利润较该行预期高3%，利润率同比提升1个 百分点。该行维持对其"增持"评级，目标价29港元。 ...

Core Insights - Ctrip's recent financial report shows a revenue of 18.3 billion and a net profit of 19.9 billion, raising concerns about the sustainability of such high profits in the industry [1] - The hotel industry is experiencing a push to reclaim direct booking power from Online Travel Agencies (OTAs), reminiscent of past movements in Europe [1][3] - The struggle against OTAs has led to significant legal and marketing efforts from major hotel groups, including campaigns to promote direct bookings [2][3] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The hotel industry in Europe has historically viewed OTAs as detrimental middlemen, with high commissions being a major pain point [3][4] - Major hotel chains formed alliances, such as the Room Key platform, to combat OTAs by consolidating inventory and driving direct bookings [5][6] - Room Key ultimately failed due to internal conflicts and the realization that direct sales come with hidden costs that can rival or exceed OTA commissions [7][9] Group 2: Cost Analysis - Transitioning to direct sales shifted costs from OTAs to hotels, including website maintenance, marketing, and customer service expenses [8][9] - Analysis from 2016 to 2018 indicated that the total cost of direct sales often matched or exceeded OTA commission rates of 15% to 20% [9][10] - The competitive landscape requires hotels to invest heavily in marketing to compete with OTA advertising budgets, leading to a paradox where direct sales become more expensive [10][11] Group 3: Market Trends - The "advertising board effect" shows that hotels benefit from visibility on OTAs, as direct bookings increase when hotels are listed on these platforms [11][12] - Data from 2013 to 2015 revealed a decline in direct bookings from 59.4% to 55.2%, highlighting the challenges faced by hotels in reclaiming market share [14][17] - The current domestic market sees Ctrip as a dominant player, with commission rates ranging from 8% to 15%, leading to mixed feelings among hotel operators [18][19] Group 4: Comparative Analysis - Ctrip's operational costs are rising, with a 20% increase in operating costs and a 24% increase in sales and marketing expenses, outpacing revenue growth [19] - In comparison, Booking's EBITDA margin is significantly higher at 47%, indicating more efficient operations despite similar revenue growth rates [20] - The European hotel groups have adapted to the presence of OTAs, viewing them as necessary partners rather than adversaries, which contrasts with the current sentiment in the domestic market [21][22] Group 5: Strategic Insights - The hotel industry is recognizing the importance of leveraging OTAs for customer acquisition while focusing on converting high-value customers to direct bookings [22][23] - The competitive landscape in China offers various platforms beyond Ctrip, allowing hotels to diversify their distribution strategies [23][24] - The narrative suggests that without Ctrip, the market dynamics would not necessarily improve, as evidenced by the failure of Room Key [27][28]

Group 1 - Ctrip reported a revenue growth of 16% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 194.01% in Q3 2025, achieving a net profit of 199 billion yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai's net profit of 192.2 billion yuan [3][4] - The significant profit increase was partly due to the disposal of certain assets, including a portion of its stake in MakeMyTrip, which contributed 170.32 billion yuan in "other income" [3][4] - Ctrip's gross margin reached 81.55%, significantly higher than other major internet companies like Tencent and NetEase, which reported gross margins of 56.41% and 64.10% respectively [5][7] Group 2 - The hotel booking segment contributed 80 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 43.72% of total revenue, marking the highest proportion in three years [9] - Ctrip's commission rates for hotels are notably high, with some hotels paying up to 20% in commissions, reflecting the industry's heavy reliance on Ctrip for customer acquisition [10][12] - Ctrip's market share in the domestic OTA market is projected to be 56% in 2024, significantly ahead of competitors like Tongcheng, Meituan, and Fliggy [12] Group 3 - Ctrip enjoys a strong competitive advantage with no significant direct competitors in the domestic OTA market, allowing it to capitalize on its market leader status [16][17] - The company has strategically invested in and partnered with potential competitors in the past, effectively consolidating the market and reducing price competition [13][14] - Ctrip's focus on service quality has fostered customer loyalty, making it difficult for competitors to gain market share despite potential price incentives [16][17]

Core Insights - Traditional risk management focused on detailed analysis and careful execution is becoming obsolete in the face of rapid digital transformation and disruptive competitors [1][2] - Companies that fail to adapt quickly to these changes risk being outpaced and potentially eliminated from the market [1][2] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The pace of change in various industries is accelerating, with new competitors leveraging advanced technologies to reshape market dynamics [1] - Companies like Airbnb, Netflix, and OpenAI are examples of how innovation is creating new value sources [1] - The retail sector is particularly affected, with traditional players losing market share to agile competitors like Ulta and TJX [10] Group 2: Executive Perspectives - A study by AlixPartners found that 65% of CEOs believe their companies face significant disruption, with 56% expecting major upheavals in the coming year [4][5] - Over 60% of executives feel their companies are not adapting quickly enough to maintain a competitive edge [6] - There is a widespread difficulty in identifying which disruptive forces to prioritize [7] Group 3: Innovation Challenges - The "innovator's dilemma" persists, with many companies underestimating the risks posed by disruptive technologies [3] - Despite recognizing the importance of innovation, less than 10% of executives are satisfied with their company's performance in this area [3] Group 4: Retail Sector Dynamics - Retailers that adopt a cautious approach to transformation are widening the gap between market demand and supply, making it difficult to catch up with more decisive competitors [9] - Traditional department stores are struggling to maintain relevance as they cling to outdated business models while new players redefine value propositions [10] Group 5: Risk Management and Action - Companies must reassess their understanding of risk, recognizing that inaction can lead to greater dangers [11] - Embracing a culture of experimentation and breaking down complex tasks into manageable parts can facilitate faster adaptation [11][12] - The key to success lies in creating higher value for customers and making bold decisions to accelerate action [12]

Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel reported a record high of 253 million annual paying users and over 2 billion cumulative service users as of Q3 2025 [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.509 billion yuan in Q3, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, with transportation and accommodation revenues growing by 9% and 14.7% respectively [1][2] - The growth potential in the mass tourism market remains significant, providing favorable conditions for the long-term sustainable development of the company [1][3] Revenue Breakdown - Transportation business revenue reached 2.209 billion yuan, while accommodation business revenue was 1.580 billion yuan [1] - Other revenue segments saw a year-on-year increase of 34.9%, totaling 821 million yuan in Q3 [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has established strategic partnerships with over 20 airports or airport groups to enhance the aviation industry chain [2] - Tongcheng Travel is leveraging AI technology to provide personalized travel experiences and has integrated AI tools across various services, attracting millions of users [1][2] - The company is promoting digital upgrades in the accommodation industry through its platform, with nearly 3,000 hotels currently operating and an additional 1,500 under construction [2] Future Outlook - The CEO of Tongcheng Travel emphasized the commitment to enriching high-quality tourism product offerings to meet the travel needs of ordinary consumers and to foster a sustainable industry ecosystem [3]