（责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 军工ETF（512660）跟踪的是中证军工指数（399967），该指数从A股市场中选取涉及航空、航 天、兵器、电子等国防领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映军工行业相关上市公司证券的整体表 现。中证军工指数覆盖了国防领域的79只成分股，能够全面展现军工板块的市场走势。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华福证券指出，11月27日，北京宣布拟在700-800公里晨昏轨道建设超千兆瓦功率的太空数据中心 系统，分三个阶段推进，2025-2027年将突破能源与散热等关键技术。11月25日，国家航天局发布《商 业航天高质量安全发展行动计划（2025-2027年）》，标志中国商业航天进入高质量发展期；11月29日 设立商业航天司，推动产业链全线受益。资金层面，考虑到2026年行业强需求恢复预期，看好后续资金 面持续向好。 每日经济新闻 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Commercial Space Administration by the National Space Administration and the release of the "Action Plan for High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)" aims to significantly expand the industry scale and enhance innovation vitality by 2027, covering multiple dimensions such as rockets, satellites, emerging industries, and financial support [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The military expenditure globally is on the rise, with India planning to increase its defense budget by 20% and Turkey signing a $6.5 billion defense contract, indicating a trend of growing military budgets worldwide [1] - The acceleration of equipment construction in China is expected, with a focus on the iteration of main battle equipment and the development of new combat capabilities such as unmanned equipment, deep-sea operations, and information technology [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The military sector is poised for a resonance between domestic demand (new productive forces) and military trade (high-end equipment exports) as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches, highlighting the investment value in the military industry [1] - The military ETF (512660) tracks the CSI Military Index (399967), which includes 79 stocks related to the military industry, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this sector [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The A-share market is transitioning from domestic-focused companies to global multinational corporations, indicating a shift from an emerging market to a mature market. This transformation is expected to enhance pricing power for Chinese companies in the global value chain during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4][5][6]. Core Insights 1. **Global Exposure of A-Share Companies**: - The overseas business exposure of A-share companies has significantly increased, with the share of overseas revenue for the top 30 manufacturing companies rising from 7% in 2005 to 45% in 2025H1. This high exposure contributes 39% of profits and 35% of market capitalization for the entire A-share non-financial sector [5][19][20]. - The correlation between A-share companies' performance and domestic economic indicators is decreasing, indicating a shift towards global economic cycles [5][23]. 2. **Impact of US-China Relations**: - The dynamics of US-China relations are crucial for market trends, with two key events in 2026 (the signing of a trade agreement and the US midterm elections) expected to segment the market into three phases: pre-agreement, post-agreement to midterm elections, and post-midterm elections [6][35]. 3. **Market Liquidity and Investment Trends**: - The influx of capital is primarily from absolute return-focused funds, leading to a long-term decline in market volatility. Traditional subjective long-only funds are seeing limited net inflows compared to tool-based products [7][9][11]. - The shift towards tool-based investment products, such as thematic ETFs, is evident, with significant net inflows into these products compared to broad-based ETFs [9][20]. Industry Configuration 1. **Manufacturing Sector Upgrades**: - The traditional manufacturing sector is focusing on upgrading quality and converting market share advantages into pricing power. The goal is to increase the profit share of Chinese manufacturing in the global market [12][19]. - Key sectors to watch include non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [12]. 2. **Chinese Enterprises Going Global**: - The trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas is expected to continue, with significant potential for profit growth in sectors like machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and electric equipment [13][19]. - The current overseas penetration rates for various sectors indicate that many industries are still in the early stages of international expansion [13]. 3. **AI and Technology Sector**: - The continuation of the technology market is dependent on new applications that broaden the commercial landscape for AI. The market is currently anxious about the sustainability of AI investments [14][19]. - Key sectors include semiconductors, computing power, and AI applications, which are expected to drive future growth [14]. 4. **Consumer Sector Opportunities**: - The consumer sector is currently underperforming relative to external demand, but there is potential for recovery driven by policy changes and macroeconomic shifts [14][19]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include escalating tensions in technology, trade, and finance between the US and China, domestic policy effectiveness, macroeconomic liquidity tightening, and geopolitical conflicts [14][19]. Investment Strategy for 2026 - Four key investment portfolios have been proposed for 2026: - **Manufacturing Upgrade 30**: Focused on traditional manufacturing leaders with significant market share advantages. - **Chinese Enterprises Going Global 30**: Targeting companies with strong global competitiveness. - **China AI 35**: Concentrating on firms in the semiconductor and AI application sectors. - **New Consumption 15**: Emphasizing companies with strong brands and service-oriented consumer offerings [14][19]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the evolving landscape of the A-share market, driven by global exposure, US-China relations, and sector-specific trends, while also addressing potential risks and strategic investment opportunities.

Group 1: Fund Issuance and Market Trends - In December, over 60 new funds have been launched or are about to be launched, with 28 funds starting on December 1 alone [1] - More than 1400 new funds have been issued this year, surpassing last year's total of 1143 and reaching a three-year high [1] - The public fund industry is innovating with new products such as credit bond ETFs and floating rate funds, expanding investment options including overseas markets like Brazil [1] Group 2: Share Buybacks and Institutional Investment - A wave of share buybacks continues among listed companies, with notable activity from leading firms like Industrial Fulian and Xiaomi [4] - Recent disclosures reveal significant changes in the top ten shareholders of several companies, indicating institutional investment trends [1][4] - Institutions have shown a preference for sectors like technology, military, and pharmaceuticals, with notable increases in holdings for companies in these areas [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Stock Market Predictions - Several foreign institutions express optimism about the A-share market, predicting an 8% growth in overall earnings for 2026 [8] - UBS and JPMorgan have raised their ratings on Chinese stocks, with JPMorgan forecasting a target for the CSI 300 index at 5200 points by the end of 2026, representing a 17% upside [8] Group 4: Commodity Price Movements - The price of titanium dioxide has increased by 700 yuan/ton for domestic customers and $100/ton for international customers due to rising raw material costs [3] - Tin futures have reached a new high, with prices rising 2.15% to 312,300 yuan/ton, driven by supply constraints and positive macroeconomic expectations [7] Group 5: Innovations in Technology and Consumer Products - Samsung has launched the Galaxy Z TriFold, marking a significant innovation in the foldable smartphone market, aimed at enhancing mobile productivity [9] - The AI toy market is experiencing a surge in interest, with products like Huawei's "Smart Hanhai" selling out rapidly, indicating a growing trend in AI-driven consumer products [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The tension between Russia and Europe has reached a peak, with Putin's declaration of a "lightning war" serving as both a warning and a strategic maneuver against European reliance on the U.S. [1][3] Military Preparedness - Russia's military readiness is underscored by the "West-2024" military exercises, where missile units demonstrated rapid deployment capabilities, termed "battlefield instant mobility" by foreign media [3] - The Russian defense industry is experiencing a surge, with two military companies projected to see a 23% increase in revenue in 2024, and tank production is operating at full capacity [3] Energy Dynamics - Despite a significant reduction in gas exports to Europe, Russia maintains control over energy supplies to Southern Europe through the "TurkStream" pipeline, while energy exports to Asia have stabilized domestic conditions [3] - Russian citizens have not faced increases in gas prices, and pensions have been raised by 5.5%, contributing to Putin's stable approval ratings above 80% [3] European Internal Divisions - The EU is experiencing internal strife regarding support for Ukraine, with only half of the promised €50 billion in aid delivered, and significant dissent among Eastern European nations [5] - Germany's attempts to ease relations with Russia are met with criticism from Eastern European countries, while France's actions contradict its calls for European strategic autonomy [5] U.S. Involvement - The U.S. is benefiting from the situation, with a 38% increase in arms exports to Europe projected for 2024, and European reliance on U.S. LNG has doubled since 2021 [8] - The ongoing conflict has positioned the U.S. as a significant arms supplier, with companies like Lockheed Martin seeing increased demand for military equipment [8] Long-term Challenges - Despite the resilience of the Russian military-industrial complex, Western sanctions are causing technological challenges, particularly in the semiconductor sector [8] - The conflict is expected to be a prolonged struggle, with the potential for Europe to either continue as a U.S. ally or seek a more independent approach in negotiations with Russia [8]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 1.28%, falling below the 26,000-point mark [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index also declined by 1.68% and 1.58%, respectively, with both indices dropping nearly 2% during the trading session [1] Sector Performance - Major sectors such as large technology stocks, financials (including banks, insurance, and brokerage firms), and state-owned enterprises saw collective declines, negatively impacting market sentiment [1] - Notable declines included China Pacific Insurance down 4%, and significant drops in stocks of Everbright Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China [1] Real Estate and Pharmaceuticals - According to a Morgan Stanley report, the year-on-year sales of new homes in mainland China dropped by 57%, leading to a continued decline in property stocks [1] - Pharmaceutical stocks also continued to experience downward pressure [1] Electric Vehicles and Semiconductors - The electric vehicle sector showed weakness, with most stocks underperforming [1] - Semiconductor leader SMIC saw a decline of over 2% [1] Commodities and Interest Rates - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 89.2%, which has led to strong performance in non-ferrous metal stocks [1] - Companies such as China Molybdenum, China Aluminum, and Daye Nonferrous Metals saw notable gains [1] Aviation and Other Sectors - The tourism market is experiencing growth, boosting travel demand, with all three major airline stocks rising [1] - Heavy machinery, home appliance, and military industry stocks were mostly active [1] - Kingstone New Materials (2693.HK) saw a first-day listing gain of over 2% [1]

行业配置方面，该机构预计，在日历效应及美联储降息周期叠加影响下，12月科技成长、部分周期和消 费可能相对占优，建议继续均衡配置：一是政策和产业趋势向上的电子（半导体、AI硬件）、通信 （AI硬件）、传媒（AI应用、游戏）、计算机（AI应用）、电新（储能、锂电）、创新药、机械设备 （机器人）等行业；二是可能补涨和基本面可能边际改善的消费（食品、商贸零售等）、大金融、军工 （商业航天）等行业。 华金证券发布研报称，12月A股可能震荡偏强，上行趋势不变。理由在于，12月政策和外部事件可能偏 积极，流动性可能进一步宽松，且经济和企业盈利可能延续弱修复趋势。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 严晓菲）华金证券发布研报称，12月A股可能震荡偏强，上行趋势不变。理 由在于，12月政策和外部事件可能偏积极，流动性可能进一步宽松，且经济和企业盈利可能延续弱修复 趋势。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market struggled to maintain the 3900-point level, experiencing weak fluctuations and a decline in trading volume to approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, indicating low market sentiment [1] - As the year-end approaches, investor participation has decreased, leading to a shrinking trading volume and a cautious market atmosphere [1] - The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase for the next few weeks, with potential upward movement as conditions improve [1] Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience fluctuations around the 4000-point level, which may prepare for a new upward phase [1] - Key focus areas for November include the impact of the 14th Five-Year Plan on industries, event-driven dynamics in the technology sector, and price recovery driven by anti-involution trends [1] Sector Highlights - In December, sectors benefiting from dividends and price increases are expected to outperform, with short-term attention on banking, public utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals [2] - Technology remains a primary focus for 2026, with particular attention on AI, lithium batteries, military industry, and robotics [2] - The trend of AI hardware is solidifying, with increasing token usage in major AI models, indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026 [2] - The domestic production of robots is expected to expand, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands as the market evolves [2] - The semiconductor industry is moving towards domestic production, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military sector is expected to see a recovery in orders, with signs of bottoming out in the performance of various military sub-sectors [2] - The innovative drug sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2026 [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a widespread decline in military stocks, with significant drops in various companies [1] - TeFa Information approached the daily limit down, while QianZhao Optoelectronics fell by 8% [1] - Other companies such as GaoHua Technology, JiaYuan Technology, and Aerospace Huanyu experienced declines exceeding 7% [1] Group 2 - Aerospace Power and YaGuang Technology both saw declines of over 6% [1] - Companies like SanWei TianDi, Aerospace Software, Aerospace ZhiZhuang, HongXiang Shares, and ZhongFuTong dropped more than 5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming spring market in 2026 is expected to be positively influenced by various factors including policy, fundamentals, and liquidity, with a likelihood of an earlier onset due to the late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival and the deepening "learning effect" in the market [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Spring market is a notable calendar effect in A-shares, typically occurring annually, with variations in timing and magnitude. The 2026 spring market may be advanced due to the late Spring Festival and increased market awareness leading to a "rush" for early positioning [2]. - The concentration of credit and fiscal measures at the beginning of the year is anticipated to boost market confidence, with historical patterns showing that the spring market often starts in January or February [2]. Historical Context - The spring market of early 2025 saw a rebound after a quick drop in early January, with major indices maintaining an upward trend for over two months. Historical analysis indicates that spring markets rarely begin in December of the previous year, providing opportunities for investors to position themselves in December for the following spring [3]. Sector Focus - The AI sector remains a key focus, with recommendations for balanced allocation between growth and cyclical sectors. Specific attention is drawn to military, AI applications, chemicals, and resource products [4]. - Analysts suggest focusing on high-value segments within growth and cyclical styles, including aerospace equipment and AI-related energy storage, while also considering financials and consumer goods as long-term holdings [4]. Investment Opportunities - In the AI sector, there are several subfields currently underperforming due to limited short-term catalysts. However, potential industry events could lead to significant returns, making downstream AI applications a strategic investment opportunity [5]. - Specific areas of interest include AI in innovative pharmaceuticals, military applications, AIGC, media gaming, humanoid robotics, and autonomous driving, which are viewed as promising investment avenues [5].