Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current Sino - US talks results lack detailed reports, causing the market to fluctuate with unconfirmed news. Fundamentally, the traditional off - season has arrived, leading to a weakening of some steel demand. However, steel mills maintain production through variety switching due to decent orders and profits. The raw material supply remains abundant, so the fundamental drive for a market rebound is weak. Market macro - sentiment fluctuations may cause the market to oscillate, and the pressure of a weakening off - season fundamental situation is gradually emerging [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for rebar is 2800 - 3100 with a current volatility of 11.25% and a volatility percentile of 14.0%. For hot - rolled coils, it is 2900 - 3200 with a current volatility of 11.37% and a volatility percentile of 9.74% [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **High finished - product inventory**: To prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures according to their inventory. For example, sell RB2510 with a 40% hedging ratio at 3000 - 3100 and HC2510 with a 40% ratio at 3120 - 3200. Also, sell call options like RB2510C3200 with a 50% ratio at 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [1]. - **Low procurement inventory**: To avoid rising procurement costs, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures. For instance, buy RB2510 with a 20% ratio at 2850 - 2920 and 2950 - 3030. Sell put options such as RB2510P2700 with a 20% ratio at 30 - 40 to reduce procurement costs [1]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - **Positive factors**: Total steel inventory is not high, and there are no obvious signs of a significant reduction in hot metal production [3]. - **Negative factors**: The recent rebar delivery volume in Hangzhou has decreased significantly; hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory in many places; steel mills plan a fourth round of coke price cuts; iron ore shipments have increased in the past two weeks; and coal mine inventories remain high [4][5]. 3.4 Price Data - **Futures prices**: On June 13, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts showed little daily change but some weekly changes. For example, the rebar 10 - contract closing price was 2968, unchanged daily but down 7 weekly [5]. - **Spot prices**: On June 12, 2025, the rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions had various daily and weekly changes. For example, the Shanghai rebar summary price was 3090, down 20 daily and 10 weekly [5]. 3.5 Other Data - **Hot - rolled coil overseas data**: The FOB export prices and CFR import prices of hot - rolled coils in different countries had different weekly changes on June 12, 2025. For example, the Japanese FOB export price dropped from 510 to 495 [6]. - **Basis data**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils in Shanghai showed certain daily and weekly changes on June 12, 2025. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 128, up 3 daily and down 21 weekly [6]. - **Spread data**: The month - spreads, roll - rebar spreads, rebar - iron ore ratios, and rebar - coke ratios of rebar and hot - rolled coils had different changes on June 13, 2025. For example, the 01 roll - rebar spread was 117, down 7 weekly [7][8][9].

聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 6900-7200 | 12.40% | 22.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | 析 | 口 | | | 向 | | 区间 | | | 产成品 库存偏 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空 塑料期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7100-71 50 | | 库存管 | 高，担 | 多 | | | | | | | 理 | 心塑料 价格下 | | 卖出看涨期权收 ...

6月11日，郑商所菜油期货仓单1085张，环比上个交易日持平。 分析观点： 瑞达期货（002961）研报：油厂库存压力持续偏高，继续牵制市场价格。且中加贸易关系缓和的预期增 强，增添后期供应压力。不过，加菜籽价格相对坚挺，成本传到下，给国内菜油市场价格带来支撑。盘 面来看，受加菜籽支撑，菜油走势较豆棕偏强，短线参与为主，关注中加贸易关系变化。 期货市场上看，6月12日收盘，菜籽油期货主力合约报9178.00元/吨，涨幅0.09%，最高触及9215.00元/ 吨，最低下探9140.00元/吨，日内成交量达278856手。 【市场资讯】 6月12日，加拿大菜油(7月船期)1050美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；加拿大菜油(9月船期)1030美元/ 吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 数据显示，6月11日全国进口四级菜油均价现货价格报价9353.75元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（9149.00 元/吨）升水204.75元/吨。 （6月12日）今日全国菜籽油价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产地 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 等 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期 steels CI生量中 =: F0251925 2025/6/12 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 | | 行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价 | | 张肤帽(%) | | 成交覆(亿元) | | 成交里(亿) | | | 上证50 | 2692. 1365 | | 0. 59 | | 665. 28 | | 35. 57 | | | 沪深300 | 3894. 6252 | | 0. 75 | | 2572. 18 | | 142. 41 | | | 中证1000 | 6186. 5122 | | 0. 40 | | 2436. 71 | | 197.64 | | | | 中金所股指期权成交情况 | | | | | | | | | 指数 | 期权成交里 | 认购期权 | 认法期权 | 日成交里 | 期权持仓里 | 认购期权 | 认沽期权 | 持仓里 | | | (万张) | 成交里 | 成交里 | PC ...

Core Insights - The main contract of the CSI 500 Index futures closed at 2506 with a slight increase of 0.21% as of June 12, with a trading volume of 40,500 contracts, indicating a net short position among the top 20 holders with a difference of 946 contracts [1][2] Trading Volume and Positions - Total trading volume for all contracts of the CSI 500 Index futures reached 67,700 contracts, a decrease of 12,800 contracts from the previous day [1][4] - Among the top 20 holders, long positions totaled 170,700 contracts, down by 793 contracts, while short positions totaled 178,000 contracts, down by 2,122 contracts [1][4] Major Players - The top three long positions were held by: - CITIC Futures with a total holding of 35,438 contracts - Guotai Junan with a total holding of 28,594 contracts - Haitong Futures with a total holding of 14,040 contracts [1][4] - The top three short positions were held by: - CITIC Futures with a total holding of 35,911 contracts - Guotai Junan with a total holding of 24,009 contracts - Haitong Futures with a total holding of 17,930 contracts [1][4] Changes in Positions - The top three increases in long positions were: - CITIC Jiantou with an increase of 245 contracts to a total of 2,266 contracts - Dongzheng Futures with an increase of 226 contracts to a total of 4,594 contracts - Zhongjin Wealth with an increase of 72 contracts to a total of 1,204 contracts [1][4] - The top three decreases in long positions were: - Zhongtai Futures with a decrease of 786 contracts to a total of 3,101 contracts - Guotai Junan with a decrease of 749 contracts to a total of 9,804 contracts - Haitong Futures with a decrease of 510 contracts to a total of 2,844 contracts [1][4] Summary of Changes - The top three increases in short positions were: - Zhongjin Futures with an increase of 134 contracts to a total of 2,667 contracts - Dongzheng Futures with an increase of 116 contracts to a total of 6,033 contracts - Xingzheng Futures with an increase of 107 contracts to a total of 1,105 contracts [1][4] - The top three decreases in short positions were: - Guotai Junan with a decrease of 1,468 contracts to a total of 8,637 contracts - CITIC Futures with a decrease of 1,229 contracts to a total of 11,555 contracts - Zhongtai Futures with a decrease of 433 contracts to a total of 1,504 contracts [1][4]

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月12日收盘主力合约焦炭2509,涨跌-1.77%,成交量2.26万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净多， 差额头寸为375手。 焦炭期货全合约总计成交2.36万手，比上一日减少2928手。全合约前20席位多头持仓3.42万手，比上一日减少803手。全合约前20 席位空头持仓3.39万手，比上一日增加304手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为银河期货，总持仓6885、中信期货，总持仓4437、国泰君安，总持仓3781；空头前三席位为 中信期货，总持仓4608、国泰君安，总持仓4084、华泰期货，总持仓3545； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：中泰期货、持仓1092、增仓107，申银万国、持仓614、增仓48，中信建投、持仓 820、增仓44；多头减仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓2041、减仓-318，方正中期、持仓1551、减仓-164，中信期货、持仓 4437、减仓-130； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓4084、增仓338，华泰期货、持仓3545、增仓173，东证期货、持 仓2731、增仓87；空头减仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓 ...

Core Insights - The main focus of the article is on the trading performance and positioning of coking coal futures as of June 12, 2025, highlighting a decrease in trading volume and a net short position among the top 20 traders [1][3][4] Trading Performance - The main coking coal futures contract (2509) closed with a decline of 2.79%, with a trading volume of 880,400 contracts, which is a decrease of 289,500 contracts from the previous day [1] - Total trading volume across all coking coal contracts was 928,100 contracts, down by 289,500 contracts compared to the previous day [1] Positioning Data - Among the top 20 positions, the long positions totaled 377,200 contracts, an increase of 6,942 contracts, while short positions totaled 394,800 contracts, an increase of 4,740 contracts [1] - The top three long positions were held by CITIC Futures (39,074 contracts), Guotai Junan (34,991 contracts), and Galaxy Futures (33,475 contracts) [1] - The top three short positions were held by Guotai Junan (49,129 contracts), CITIC Futures (40,808 contracts), and Galaxy Futures (31,943 contracts) [1] Changes in Positions - The top three increases in long positions were from Haitong Futures (9,539 contracts, up by 2,376), Guomao Futures (18,954 contracts, up by 1,967), and Huatai Futures (21,523 contracts, up by 1,359) [1] - The top three decreases in long positions were from Yong'an Futures (12,603 contracts, down by 2,010), CITIC Futures (36,555 contracts, down by 813), and Dongzheng Futures (22,364 contracts, down by 793) [1] - The top three increases in short positions were from Guotai Junan (42,504 contracts, up by 3,443), Everbright Futures (14,209 contracts, up by 2,093), and Yong'an Futures (19,059 contracts, up by 1,599) [1] - The top three decreases in short positions were from Zhongtai Futures (11,921 contracts, down by 5,745), Dongzheng Futures (19,676 contracts, down by 2,401), and CITIC Futures (35,589 contracts, down by 1,412) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's financial industry has made significant progress in opening up, with substantial relaxation of market access and deepening interconnectivity between domestic and foreign financial markets [1][2] - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies have jointly issued an action plan to enhance cross-border financial services, focusing on improving settlement efficiency, optimizing hedging services, strengthening financing services, enhancing insurance protection, and refining comprehensive financial services [1][2] - The removal of foreign ownership limits in banking, securities, fund management, futures, and life insurance sectors marks a major step in financial service market access [2] Group 2 - The "Bond Connect" program achieved a total trading volume of 10.4 trillion yuan in 2024, facilitating foreign investors in allocating Chinese assets and managing risks through various hedging tools [2] - The concept of institutional opening is emphasized, transitioning from the flow of goods and factors to the opening of rules and systems, which aids in international cooperation and aligns with high international standards [2][3] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has implemented reforms to streamline foreign exchange business processes, enhancing the experience for quality clients by reducing documentation requirements [3] Group 3 - There is a strong emphasis on balancing openness with security, with plans to enhance regulatory capabilities and risk prevention measures in the context of increased openness [3] - The establishment of a robust risk prevention system is crucial to avoid systemic risks, including the improvement of macro-prudential policy frameworks and monitoring systems for cross-border capital flows [3]

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/6/11 袁铭（Z0012648）陈敏涛（F03118345 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 16.23% | 37.9% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 24.52% | 63.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM: | | 理 | 下跌 | | 金期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 2509 | ...

(*文中全合约指交易所公布持仓成交数据的所有合约) 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓2644、增仓289，海证期货、持仓1700、增仓162，永安期货、持 仓1445、增仓99；空头减仓前三名分别是：中辉期货、持仓716、减仓-472，先融期货、持仓807、减仓-233，国泰君安、持仓 3746、减仓-210。 文章来源:新浪期货 2025年6月11日焦炭主力合约2509持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | J | 中信期货 | 5,488 | -1,182 | 银河期货 | 6,919 | -29 | 中信期货 | 4,767 | -142 | | 2 | 国泰君安 | 4,971 | -258 | 中信期货 | 4,567 | -268 | 国泰君安 | 3,746 | -210 | | 3 | 东证期货 | 2,335 | -549 | 国泰君安 | 3, ...