Market Overview - The three major A-share indices showed mixed performance in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and North Star 50 Index fell by 0.74%, 0.86%, and 0.97% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 22,631 billion yuan, an increase of 3,495 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,700 stocks in the market experienced declines [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that saw the most significant gains included gold, non-ferrous metals, avian influenza, oil and gas, insurance, chemicals, securities, and port shipping [1] - Conversely, the sectors that faced the largest declines were commercial aerospace, military equipment, gaming, photolithography, semiconductors, humanoid robots, and AI mobile phone concepts [1] ETF Performance - International gold prices surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time, leading to a surge in gold and non-ferrous resource stocks [1] - The following ETFs saw notable increases: Ping An Fund Gold Stock ETF rose by 7.34%, ICBC Gold Stock ETF by 7.33%, and Guotai Fund Gold Stock ETF by 6.95% [1] - Oil and gas stocks also performed strongly, with Huatai Bairui Oil and Gas ETF increasing by 6% [1] Declines in Specific Sectors - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a widespread decline, with satellite ETFs and related funds dropping significantly: Satellite ETF fell by 6.85%, Satellite Industry ETF by 6.77%, and Guangfa Satellite ETF by 6.6% [1] - The semiconductor equipment sector also saw a downturn, with the E Fund Semiconductor Equipment ETF decreasing by 4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in A-shares is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by multiple favorable factors including AI computing demand, a reversal in the storage cycle, and accelerated domestic substitution, leading to increased market attention and active trading in core stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The semiconductor sector has shown significant strength, with leading stocks like Chipone Technology and Xilinx achieving historical highs, indicating a robust structural market [1]. - The trading volume for Chipone Technology reached 4.123 billion yuan on January 23, reflecting strong capital allocation interest and active overall trading in the sector [1]. Group 2: Industry Developments - The domestic semiconductor equipment substitution rate is projected to rise from 25% in 2025 to 35% by 2026, with key equipment like etching and deposition tools exceeding 40% substitution, supported by a 15% procurement subsidy from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2]. - A super cycle in memory storage is anticipated, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise over 50% and flash memory prices over 30% by Q1 2026, driven by strong demand and supply shortages [2]. - The National Big Fund Phase III has been launched with a total scale exceeding 350 billion yuan, with 40% of the initial 120 billion yuan allocated to equipment and materials, indicating unprecedented financial support for the semiconductor sector [2]. Group 3: Global Market Outlook - The global semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is expected to reach $145 billion by 2026 and $156 billion by 2027, with China projected to lead in equipment investment at approximately $39.25 billion [3]. Group 4: Benefiting Industries - The semiconductor equipment industry is set to benefit directly from global wafer fab expansions and accelerated domestic substitution, with AI computing demand driving significant increases in equipment needs [4]. - The semiconductor materials industry will see growth in demand for materials like photoresists and specialty gases, as domestic equipment manufacturing increases and global expansions accelerate [4]. - The AI server industry is projected to see a surge in shipments, with estimates of over 3 million units in 2026, further driving demand for storage and computing chips [4].

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector experienced a strong surge at the beginning of the trading day, with both precious and industrial metals performing well, leading to significant profit-making opportunities [1] - Key stocks such as Shengda Resources, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Guocheng Mining, and Yuguang Gold & Lead reached historical highs, indicating strong market leadership within the sector [1] - The overall market sentiment was bolstered by rising precious metal prices, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and positive spillover effects from the semiconductor industry, resulting in increased capital allocation to the non-ferrous metal sector [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Developments - The domestic semiconductor equipment localization rate is projected to rise from 25% in 2025 to 35% by 2026, with key equipment like etching and thin-film deposition exceeding 40% localization, supported by a 15% procurement subsidy from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2] - The National Big Fund Phase III has been launched with a total scale exceeding 350 billion yuan, with 40% of the funds directed towards equipment and materials, providing unprecedented financial support for the semiconductor sector [2] - The global semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is expected to reach $145 billion by 2026, with China projected to lead in equipment investment at approximately $39.25 billion, driving demand within the domestic semiconductor industry [2] Group 3: Demand Surge in Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor demand is anticipated to surge due to a reversal in the storage cycle, with predictions of over 50% increase in DRAM contract prices and over 30% increase in flash memory contract prices by Q1 2026 [3] - SK Hynix has reported that its chip production capacity is fully booked, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap that will further stimulate demand in semiconductor manufacturing and packaging [3] Group 4: Benefiting Industries - The non-ferrous metal equipment industry stands to benefit directly from the surge in semiconductor equipment demand and accelerated non-ferrous metal resource development, with domestic clean extraction technology breakthroughs driving equipment upgrades [4] - The electric vehicle and energy storage sectors are expected to see continued growth in demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt, with a projected 60% increase in lithium demand in the energy storage sector by 2026 [4] - The AI computing infrastructure sector will also benefit, as copper and tungsten are essential materials, with semiconductor chips enhancing computing power, leading to increased demand for both non-ferrous metals and semiconductors [4]

Summary of Conference Call on China's Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE) Imports Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE) - **Key Focus**: China's SPE imports, particularly lithography equipment, and their implications for capacity expansion in tier-1 cities Key Points SPE Import Trends - China's SPE imports rebounded significantly in December 2025, increasing by **95% MoM** but down **9% YoY** from the previous year's high base due to geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Total SPE imports for Q4 2025 were **US$9.3 billion**, a **1% decrease** from the previous quarter, while annual imports for 2025 reached **US$34.7 billion**, marking a **3% increase** YoY [1] Lithography Equipment Insights - Lithography imports surged to **US$2.3 billion** in December 2025, representing a **59% increase YoY** and **222% increase MoM**, accounting for **55%** of total SPE imports [2][1] - The average cost per unit of lithography equipment imported was **US$75 million** for Shanghai, **US$95 million** for Beijing, and **US$46 million** for Guangdong, indicating strong demand in these regions [3] Regional Performance - The Netherlands emerged as the top exporter of SPE to China in December 2025, while imports from Japan continued to decline, down **38% YoY** [2] - Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangdong showed robust lithography import values, suggesting accelerated capacity expansion by local fabs such as SMIC and Hua Hong [3] Capital Expenditure (Capex) Outlook - Evidence suggests solid capex demand in tier-1 cities, supported by local government plans to invest in the semiconductor and AI industries [3] - Expectations for China's WFE spending in 2026 could exceed previous estimates, with projected growth of **10% YoY** driven by advanced logic and memory capacity expansion projects [4] Investment Recommendations - Top investment picks include **NAURA** (rated Buy) and **ACMR Shanghai** [4] Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: Include potential worsening macroeconomic conditions, intensified geopolitical tensions, and slower-than-expected R&D progress [52] - **Upside Risks**: Include faster-than-expected recovery in end-demand and potential technological breakthroughs by China's WFE vendors [53] Government Initiatives - The 15th Five-Year Plans from major provinces emphasize commitments to enhancing semiconductor capabilities and AI development, which may positively impact WFE demand in the long term [51] Additional Insights - The strong performance of lithography imports indicates a shift in spending patterns, with lithography now accounting for a significantly higher percentage of total WFE spending than the historical norm of **20-25%** [2] - The average selling price (ASP) of lithography units reflects the high value and demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing capabilities in China [3] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends from the conference call regarding China's semiconductor production equipment imports and the broader implications for the industry.

｜2026年1月26日 星期一｜ NO.1中信建投：景气投资占优 坚守"科技+资源品"双主线 中信建投证券研报认为，经济数据显示，工业生产延续韧性，与此同时出口保持较快增长，但消费、投 资等内需指标仍显疲软。从宏观背景来看，当前宏观环境与2020~2021年赛道投资高峰期有颇多相似之 处。宏观需求偏弱+流动性宽松的组合，具备结构性景气的赛道投资占优。科技方面，AI半导体/新能源 仍是当前的景气核心，与此同时新兴热点景气催化不断，AI应用政策强力支持、商业化落地加速，太 空光伏全球产能规划超预期、技术突破打开万亿市场，创新药BD交易、临床突破与新药获批推动价值 兑现。资源品方面，目前有色金属行业2025年报业绩预告向好率最高。 NO.2华泰证券：A股市场逐步切换向绩优方向 光大证券研报认为，春节前市场将会保持震荡，难以保持稳定的趋势，这主要与春节之前投资者交易热 度有所下行，以及微观流动性短期趋紧有关。从历史情况来看，春节前20个交易日，主要指数上涨概率 不足50%。预计春节之后市场将会迎来新一轮上行动力，春节后20个交易日主要指数上行概率与平均涨 幅均较高。因此建议投资者近期以稳为主，但仍应持股过节。行业方面 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports emphasizes the resilience of industrial production and the rapid growth of exports, while domestic demand indicators such as consumption and investment remain weak [1][2][3] - The macroeconomic environment is compared to the investment peak period of 2020-2021, highlighting a combination of weak macro demand and loose liquidity, which favors structural investment in thriving sectors [1] - Key sectors identified for investment include technology, particularly AI semiconductors and new energy, as well as resource products, with a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry by 2025 [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is gradually shifting towards high-performance stocks, with small-cap stocks showing significant gains amid ongoing sector rotation [2] - Despite high outflows from broad-based ETFs, there remains potential for market support from institutional investors and arbitrage opportunities, indicating continued market momentum [2] - Focus areas for investment include sectors with sustainable recovery signals, particularly in price increase chains, high-end manufacturing, and the AI sector, with recommendations to consider electric equipment, basic chemicals, and semiconductor equipment [2] Group 3 - The market is expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival, with historical data indicating a less than 50% probability of major index gains in the 20 trading days leading up to the holiday [3] - Post-Spring Festival, a new upward momentum is anticipated, with higher probabilities of index gains in the following 20 trading days [3] - Recommended sectors for attention include electronics, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with a focus on commercial aerospace as a theme [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zhongwei Company experienced a 5.03% drop in stock price, closing at 349.06 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.935 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.87%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 218.562 billion CNY [1] - Zhongwei Semiconductor Equipment (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. was established on May 31, 2004, and went public on July 22, 2019. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-end semiconductor equipment [1] - The main business revenue composition of Zhongwei includes specialized equipment at 86.17%, spare parts at 12.84%, and others at 0.99% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Puyin Ansheng has a significant position in Zhongwei Company. The Puyin Ansheng Sci-Tech Board Comprehensive Index Enhanced A (024083) reduced its holdings by 2,832 shares, maintaining 7,193 shares, which accounts for 1.43% of the fund's net value, ranking as the eighth largest holding [2] - The Puyin Ansheng Sci-Tech Board Comprehensive Index Enhanced A (024083) was established on June 17, 2025, with a latest scale of 54.4683 million CNY. Year-to-date, it has achieved a return of 12.42%, ranking 1,252 out of 5,579 in its category; since inception, it has returned 35.7% [2] - The fund manager of Puyin Ansheng Sci-Tech Board Comprehensive Index Enhanced A (024083) is Sun Chenjin, who has a cumulative tenure of 10 years and 316 days, managing total assets of 1.424 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 70.08% and the worst being -27.66% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shengmei Shanghai (688082.SH) has reported impressive revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026, highlighting its growth in the semiconductor equipment industry and its ambition to compete globally [1][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Shengmei Shanghai expects its revenue for 2025 to be between 6.68 billion and 6.88 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.91% to 22.47% [1]. - The company anticipates its revenue for 2026 to range from 8.2 billion to 8.8 billion yuan [1][6]. - In 2024, Shengmei Shanghai's revenue reached 5.618 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.153 billion yuan [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Shengmei Shanghai holds an 8.0% global market share in the semiconductor cleaning equipment sector, ranking fourth worldwide [1]. - The company aims to invest 5 billion yuan in R&D over the next three years to achieve breakthroughs in new areas such as coating and electroplating [1][6]. - Shengmei Shanghai has successfully entered key global semiconductor markets, including Korea and Japan, securing orders from overseas wafer fabs [6]. Group 3: Historical Development - Founded in 2005 by Wang Hui, Shengmei Shanghai has evolved from a domestic startup to a leader in the semiconductor cleaning equipment industry [3][4]. - The company has developed innovative cleaning technologies, including SAPS and TEBO, which have enabled it to break into markets previously dominated by international competitors [3][5]. - Shengmei Shanghai went public on NASDAQ in 2017 and later listed on the STAR Market in 2021, marking its dual listing in both US and Chinese markets [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the proactive allocation of active equity public funds towards technology manufacturing, cyclical industries, service consumption, and non-bank financial sectors, while reducing exposure to media, computing, military, real estate, and pharmaceutical industries in Q4 2025 [9][10][12] - The report highlights a significant increase in the allocation to cyclical industries, with the proportion of holdings in global pricing metals rising by 2.1 percentage points to 8.0%, marking a historical high, and the configuration coefficients for basic chemicals, automobiles, and construction materials also showing notable increases [9][10] - The report indicates that the AI sector remains a focal point for public fund holdings, with the communication sector's allocation reaching a historical high of 11.1%, and the overall TMT sector holding at 38%, despite a slight decrease from the previous quarter [11][12] Group 2 - The report discusses the performance of active equity public funds, noting a decrease in overall positions but an increase in the median net value growth of 25.8% for 2025, with a significant recovery in the technology sector [13][14] - The report outlines the growth of passive public funds, with the total scale of stock ETFs reaching nearly 3.8 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, marking a new high and surpassing the market value share of active equity public funds [14][15] - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for sectors with clear industrial trends and supportive policies, such as semiconductors, energy storage, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are reflected in the holdings of public funds [15][16] Group 3 - The report notes that the company Huafeng Measurement Control (688200) has released an earnings forecast for 2025, expecting revenue of 1.275 to 1.413 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.87% to 56.11%, and a net profit of 489 to 594 million yuan, reflecting a strong performance exceeding market expectations [30][31] - The report highlights that the company is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in semiconductor equipment demand driven by AI, with global sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment projected to reach 133 billion USD in 2025, a 13.7% increase [30][31] - The report indicates that Zhongkong Technology (688777) has announced a stock incentive plan, with a target for AI business revenue exceeding expectations, and anticipates significant growth in its product lines focused on AI and high-performance computing [32][33]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a divergence in capital sentiment last week, with small-cap stocks leading in gains, and industry rotation continuing. The focus is on the elasticity of capital and the direction of future rotations [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since mid-January, the outflow of capital from broad-based ETFs has been relatively high, but there are still inflows from insurance funds and arbitrage demands from investors, indicating ongoing market momentum [1] - The rotation direction may gradually shift from thematic investments to sectors with performance validation, as historically, industries with sustained recovery capabilities during earnings forecast disclosures tend to yield excess returns [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - Current recovery signals are primarily concentrated in price increase chains, high-end manufacturing, and AI-related sectors. Specific attention is recommended for power equipment, basic chemicals, and semiconductor equipment, with a moderate increase in allocation towards cyclical dividends [1]