Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Industrial Fulian (601138) driven by AI demand, with projected revenues of 843.4 billion, 1,320.3 billion, and 1,715.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 38.5%, 56.5%, and 29.9% respectively, and net profits of 30.5 billion, 50.5 billion, and 59.4 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 31.5%, 65.5%, and 17.6% [2][11] - Xiaomi Group (01810) reported record high revenues and profits in Q2 2025, with revenues of 116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, and adjusted net profits of 10.8 billion yuan, up 75% year-on-year, driven by IoT and EV segments [10][12] - Nine Dragons Paper (2689.HK) expects significant profit growth for FY25, with net profits projected between 2.1 billion and 2.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 165%-190%, attributed to increased sales and cost reductions [13][15] Industrial Fulian (601138) - The company’s main business includes cloud computing, communication, and industrial internet, with a notable increase in cloud computing revenue expected to reach 319.38 billion yuan in 2024, a 64.4% year-on-year growth [11] - AI server demand is surging, with global cloud providers' capital expenditures increasing by 64% year-on-year, indicating strong market demand [11] - The company is expected to maintain a leading position in the high-speed switch market, with revenues from 800G switches projected to triple compared to 2024 [11] Xiaomi Group (01810) - The company’s IoT segment saw a revenue increase of 45% in Q2, with smart home appliances achieving record sales, particularly in air conditioning and washing machines [12][14] - The electric vehicle segment reported a revenue of 21.3 billion yuan with a significant improvement in gross margin, indicating a positive trend towards profitability [12][14] - Xiaomi plans to expand its global footprint in the home appliance sector, marking 2025 as a pivotal year for international sales [12][14] Nine Dragons Paper (2689.HK) - The company is focusing on a diversified product strategy and integrated pulp-paper operations, which are expected to enhance profitability significantly [15][16] - The anticipated increase in paper prices due to improved supply-demand dynamics is expected to further boost profits [15][16] - The company’s production capacity is set to expand, with new lines expected to come online, reinforcing its market position [15][16] Electric Heavy Trucks Industry - The electric heavy truck market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with sales reaching 79,200 units in the first half of 2025, representing a penetration rate of 22% [18] - The European market is also seeing a rise in electric heavy truck adoption, with projections indicating significant growth in sales and market penetration by 2026 [18] - The industry is becoming increasingly collaborative, with a focus on developing specialized products across the supply chain, enhancing profitability potential [18] Other Companies - Keda Li (002850) reported strong revenue growth in Q2, driven by its structural components business and advancements in robotics [19] - China Hongqiao (01378) is set to benefit from increased production capacity and a favorable pricing environment for aluminum products, with projected net profits significantly increasing [20][21] - Blue Sky Technology (300487) continues to show growth potential, with a focus on expanding its product offerings and market presence [22]

Macro Insights - The expansion of the US steel and aluminum tariffs is expected to increase import tariffs from China and globally by 1.3% and 1.1% respectively, with the second batch of steel and aluminum derivatives set to take effect in January 2026 [2] - The US domestic demand decline may indirectly affect China's exports to other countries, while the substitution effect of US steel is limited [2] Fiscal Policy - In July, tax revenue growth accelerated, indicating an improvement in public budget revenue structure [3] - The land market remains sluggish, leading to weak growth in government fund revenue, which is significantly below the initial budget [3] - Infrastructure investment is rebounding, supported by the commencement of major projects, which is beneficial for domestic investment [3] Company Research Real Estate - Wanwu Cloud (2602.HK) reported H1 2025 revenue of 18.14 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year, and a core net profit of 1.32 billion yuan, up 10.8% year-on-year, with a mid-term dividend of 1.1 billion yuan, accounting for 83% of core net profit [5] Chemical Industry - Yuntianhua (600096.SH) achieved H1 2025 revenue of 24.992 billion yuan, down 21.88% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.761 billion yuan, down 2.81% year-on-year, with an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [6] Oil and Gas - CNOOC Development (600968.SH) reported H1 2025 total revenue of 22.6 billion yuan, up 4.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.83 billion yuan, up 13.1% year-on-year, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 maintained [7] Steel - CITIC Special Steel (000708.SZ) maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 5.590 billion, 6.236 billion, and 6.825 billion yuan, with expectations of improved profitability due to product structure optimization and accelerated overseas projects [9] Building Materials - Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ) reported H1 2025 revenue of 13.56 billion yuan, down 0.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted downwards [10] High-end Manufacturing - Haitian International (1882.HK) achieved H1 2025 net profit of 1.71 billion yuan, up 12.6% year-on-year, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 maintained [11] Automotive - XPeng Motors (XPEV.N) is approaching a profitability inflection point, with expectations of improved gross margins and sales growth, leading to upward revisions of profit forecasts for 2026-2027 [12] Electrical New Energy - Siyuan Electric (002028.SZ) reported H1 2025 revenue of 8.497 billion yuan, up 37.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.293 billion yuan, up 45.71% year-on-year, with strong growth in overseas revenue [13] Technology - Jiayuan Technology (688388.SH) has revised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 105 million, 274 million, and 524 million yuan, with a focus on solid-state batteries and high-end PCB copper foil [14] Internet Media - Meitu Company (1357.HK) focuses on subscription growth, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 increased to 960 million, 1.24 billion, and 1.52 billion yuan [15] Overseas TMT - Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) reported Q2 2025 revenue of 116 billion yuan, up 30% year-on-year, with a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [16] Pharmaceuticals - Kingsray Biotechnology (1548.HK) reported H1 2025 revenue of 519 million USD, with a significant recovery in business and a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [17] Travel Services - Tongcheng Travel (0780.HK) reported Q2 2025 revenue of 4.669 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 maintained [19] Food and Beverage - Yanghe Distillery (002304.SZ) reported H1 2025 revenue of 14.796 billion yuan, down 35.32% year-on-year, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 maintained [20] Light Industry - Wuzhou Special Paper (605007.SH) maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expectations of improved profitability due to price recovery [21] - Zhongshun Jierou (002511.SZ) has raised profit forecasts for 2025-2027, focusing on high-end product layout [22]

大家早上壕！ 先看海外要闻： 标普和纳指盘中探底回升，标普仍四连跌，道指惊险收涨，纳指盘中跌近2%，标普盘中跌超1%，收盘标普500指数跌0.24%，道指涨0.04%，纳 指跌0.67%。 英特尔一度跌超7%。AI热门股Palantir盘中跌超9%后收跌逾1%，六连跌，创16个月最长连跌。塔吉特公布财报并官宣CEO换帅后跌超6%。 2、西藏自治区成立60周年庆祝大会将于8月21日上午10时在西藏自治区拉萨市隆重举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平将出 席大会。（新闻联播） 纳斯达克金龙中国指数初步收涨0.3%。财报后百度跌超2%。尚高生命科学收涨将近37%，新蛋涨约24%，万国数据涨超7%，再鼎医药则跌超 5%。 美联储会议纪要偏鹰，两年期美债收益率抹平降幅。美元指数创一周新高后转跌，特朗普呼吁美联储理事Cook辞职后，跌幅扩大。 黄金、原油齐反弹。黄金再创逾两周新低后转涨，一度涨逾1%。美国EIA原油库存超预期下降，原油一度涨近2%，美油脱离逾两月低位。 欧洲卫生机构：欧洲蚊媒疾病疫情数量创历史新高。 英特尔构建液冷生态互操作新标准，英维克等成为首批认证合作伙伴。 韩国推出45.8万亿韩元的支 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Nine Dragons Paper Holdings has experienced a significant stock price increase of over 11% following the announcement of expected profits for the first half of the year between 2.1 billion to 2.3 billion yuan, representing a growth of 165% to 190% compared to last year's profit of 793 million yuan [1] - The profit growth is primarily attributed to an increase in sales and a notable decline in raw material costs, which decreased at a faster rate than the decline in product prices, thereby boosting gross margins [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, since July, leading paper companies, including Nine Dragons, have raised prices, resulting in an increase in the average price of recycled containerboard and corrugated paper across various regions [1] Group 2 - The price increase has accelerated significantly from late July to early August, driven by stable increases in the cost of waste paper, prompting smaller manufacturers to follow suit with price hikes [1] - It is anticipated that paper prices will continue to rise due to seasonal demand and cost pressures, leading to an expansion of the margin between paper prices and raw material costs, which is expected to improve profitability [1] - According to Industrial Securities, both paper and pulp prices are currently at historical lows, and as the fourth quarter approaches the traditional peak season, both prices are expected to rise, potentially leading the industry into an upward cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase of 20.1% year-on-year for 1H2025, but a significant decline of 47.6% in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 1H2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.12 billion yuan, with a net profit of 120 million yuan [3]. - The revenue for Q1 and Q2 of 2025 was 1.99 billion yuan and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 15.2% and 25.1% [3]. - The net profit for Q1 and Q2 of 2025 was 64.68 million yuan and 56.99 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 51.7% and 42.2% [3]. Group 2: Production and Capacity - The company completed a production volume of 1.0237 million tons of mechanical paper in 1H2025, with sales of 987,200 tons, marking increases of 76.3% and 74.4% year-on-year, respectively [4]. - The average price per ton was 4,175 yuan, which is a decrease of 1,886 yuan year-on-year [4]. - The full production of the industrial packaging paper line at the Hubei base added 550,000 tons per year of corrugated boxboard capacity, contributing to ongoing revenue growth [4]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Margins - The gross margin for 1H2025 was 8.2%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, with Q1 and Q2 margins at 8.8% and 7.7%, respectively [5]. - The average price per ton for paper cup base paper in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 was 6,800 yuan and 6,489 yuan, showing declines of 300 yuan and 418 yuan year-on-year [5]. - The increase in competition led to price reductions in various paper products, contributing to the decline in gross margin [5]. Group 4: Expense Management - The company’s expense ratio for 1H2025 was 4.8%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - The financial expense ratio increased due to the cessation of capitalizing interest on loans as paper machine production lines were completed and increased bank borrowings [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is currently "No Rating" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue increase of 20.1% year-on-year in H1 2025, reaching 4.122 billion yuan, although the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47.7% to 122 million yuan [2][3] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and a bottoming out of pulp prices, leading to potential improvements in profitability in Q3 2025 [3] - The company is accelerating its capacity expansion, with a total designed capacity of 2.444 million tons as of H1 2025, which includes various product categories [5] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from different product categories was as follows: food packaging paper at 1.308 billion yuan (down 18.2%), daily consumer series at 1.157 billion yuan (down 1.7%), cultural paper at 447 million yuan (down 12.7%), and industrial packaging paper at 1.079 billion yuan (new category) [4] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 7.7%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.7%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was -17 million yuan, indicating short-term fluctuations, but the operational capability remains stable with inventory turnover days at 50.15 [6] Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to be 321 million yuan, 520 million yuan, and 699 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.5X, 11.4X, and 8.5X [6][7]

证券日报网讯 8月20日晚间，景兴纸业发布公告称，公司及控股子公司均不存在逾期债务对应的担保、 涉及诉讼的担保及因被判决败诉而应承担的担保。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Paper pulp: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Sugar: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Apple: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Timber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Natural rubber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - 20 - number rubber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Butadiene rubber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and timber - provides market conditions, supply - demand situations, and offers operation suggestions such as temporary observation [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined with large intraday drops, spot sales base remained stable, and spot trading was average. Pure - cotton yarn trading was okay with stable prices [2] - Inventory digestion in July slowed down, expected to improve in August due to approaching peak season. Cotton imports in July were at a low level, 50000 tons, down 149400 tons year - on - year and up 22600 tons month - on - month. From January to July 2025, cumulative imports were 520000 tons, a 74.2% year - on - year decrease [2] - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season. Short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is limited by weak downstream orders and poor profits of most inland enterprises. Suggest temporary observation [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Production data from the central - southern part of Brazil in the second half of July was favorable. Short - term, US sugar prices may stabilize and rebound due to potentially lower production in Brazil. Medium - term, US sugar futures prices have not reached the bottom [3] - Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Sales rhythm was fast this year, inventory decreased year - on - year, and spot pressure was relatively light. Market focus shifted to imports and yield estimates for the next season. Import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly this year, but the yield for the 25/26 season is uncertain [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. Early - maturing apples started to be on the market, with slow coloring, small fruit sizes, and a shortage of high - quality products leading to high prices [4] - As of August 14, national cold - storage apple inventory was 461300 tons, a 49.4% year - on - year decrease. Last week's cold - storage apple removal volume was 50700 tons, a 32.31% year - on - year decrease. Market focus shifted to new - season yield estimates [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all dropped significantly and rebounded in the afternoon. Domestic natural and synthetic rubber prices declined, and Thai raw material market prices mostly fell [6] - Global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate increased significantly [6] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded, semi - steel tires decreased, and tire enterprise inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased to 617000 tons, and China's butadiene port inventory increased to 204000 tons. Suggest temporary observation [6] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures dropped significantly. Shandong Moon's spot price was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Russian needle pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5250 yuan/ton; broad - leaf pulp was 4150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [7] - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.099 million tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. Domestic social retail data in July weakened month - on - month, indicating weakening domestic demand. Suggest temporary observation or range - trading strategy [7] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. Last week, the arrival volume decreased significantly. Outer - market quotes increased for two consecutive months, while domestic spot price increases were small, and traders' pressure increased [8] - After entering the off - season, the daily port outbound volume was around 60000 cubic meters with good overall outbound conditions. As of August 15, national port timber inventory was 3.06 million cubic meters, a 0.65% month - on - month decrease. Suggest temporary observation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry sector experienced a 0.5% increase on August 20, with Annie Co. leading the gains, while the overall market indices also showed positive performance [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3766.21, up 1.04% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11926.74, up 0.89% [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Annie Co. (002235) closed at 9.04, with a rise of 4.15%, and a trading volume of 1.4162 million shares, totaling a transaction value of 1.258 billion [1]. - BoHui Paper (600966) closed at 5.31, up 3.31%, with a trading volume of 204,000 shares, totaling 106 million [1]. - QiFeng New Materials (002521) closed at 9.07, increasing by 2.14%, with a trading volume of 114,200 shares, totaling 104 million [1]. - Forest Packaging (605500) closed at 10.24, up 1.69%, with a trading volume of 147,300 shares, totaling 150 million [1]. - Hengfeng Paper (600356) closed at 9.28, increasing by 1.64%, with a trading volume of 49,900 shares, totaling 45.9795 million [1]. - Minfeng Special Paper (600235) closed at 6.63, up 1.38%, with a trading volume of 78,900 shares, totaling 52.0111 million [1]. - Yibin Paper (600793) closed at 25.59, increasing by 1.35%, with a trading volume of 69,800 shares, totaling 178 million [1]. - Qingshan Paper (600103) closed at 2.36, up 1.29%, with a trading volume of 489,200 shares, totaling 1.15 billion [1]. - Rongsheng Environmental Protection (603165) closed at 12.55, increasing by 1.13%, with a trading volume of 36,600 shares, totaling 45.8246 million [1]. - Guanmeng High-tech (600433) closed at 3.17, up 0.96%, with a trading volume of 185,600 shares, totaling 58.3962 million [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The paper sector saw a net inflow of 101 million from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 11.7049 million [2].

8月20日，截至港股收盘，恒生指数上涨0.17%，报25165.94点。玖龙纸业（02689.HK）收报5.4港元/ 股，上涨12.27%，成交量9120.38万股，成交额4.74亿港元，振幅13.31%。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 行业估值方面，原材料行业市盈率（TTM）平均值为21.6倍，行业中值6.35倍。玖龙纸业市盈率22.42 倍，行业排名第26位；其他大成生化科技（00809.HK）为1.16倍、骏东控股（08277.HK）为1.4倍、中 木国际（01822.HK）为2.15倍、中国三江化工（02198.HK）为4.04倍、武汉有机（02881.HK）为4.8 倍。 资料显示，玖龙纸业(控股)有限公司成立于1995年,总部位于中国广东省东莞市,2006年于香港联交所主 板上市,目前为全球产能排名第一的造纸集团和林浆纸一体化的龙头企业(主要产品为各类环保包装纸、 高档全木浆纸及其上下游产业链)。集团现有造纸设计年产能为超过2,000万吨,员工20,000余人。玖龙纸 业目前在中国的东莞、太仓、重庆、天津、乐山、泉州、沈阳、河北及湖北拥有生产基地,并于广西北 海建设浆纸基地。玖龙纸业积极响应'一 ...