来源 | 央视新闻 当地时间3月13日，日本政府正式宣布，为防止国内石油产品供应出现问题，将从16日开始释放石油储备。 2026.03. 13 本文字数：223，阅读时长大约1分钟 政府计划将法律规定的石油公司必须持有的储备量进行下调。此举预计可释放相当于15天需求量的石油。 微信编辑 | 夏木 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索，欢迎提供。 专用邮箱：bianjibu@yicai.com . . 4 t t was supersulas sul nosumedium PST 推荐阅读 美以"首次出现重大分歧" （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） ...

以下文章来源于大猫财经Pro ，作者大猫财经猫哥 大猫财经Pro . 看懂大趋势、小案例、一起搞钱 作者：史大郎&猫哥 来源：是史大郎&大猫财经Pro 01 -------------------------- 伊朗的仗，要打完了？ 这两天，特朗普松口说，"将在适当时机作出结束对伊朗的军事行动"，以色列的外长说，"不寻求 与伊朗进行无休止战争"。 这一战，开始得很突然，"结束表态"也很突然。 当初的目标是"推翻伊朗政权"，现在的表态却是，"伊朗政权更迭可能在军事行动之后"。 目标变了，美以随时都能宣布自己"赢"，现在，特朗普已经要求以色列停止对伊朗能源设施尤其是 石油设施的空袭。 变化从什么时候开始的呢？ 油价在盘中触及119美元/桶的高价。 华尔街已经开始预测，如果油价涨到150美元，那美国汽油的平均价格会涨50%。 能源成本上涨，通胀也得上天。 约束以色列，也就是约束油价的上涨。 美以这一松口，确实有效果，油价惊魂一夜，从暴涨转为暴跌，10日的盘中，美油一度暴跌19%， 布油一度跌18%。 但伊朗对美以的傲慢不屑一顾，伊斯兰革命卫队说，"战争的结束由伊朗决定"。 新的最高领袖上任，那个比核弹还危险的男人， ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil already at sea until April 11, aiming to enhance the reach of existing oil supply [1] Group 1 - The temporary lifting of sanctions is intended to increase the availability of oil in the market [1] - This decision may impact global oil supply dynamics by allowing Russian oil to reach markets that were previously restricted [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury announced on March 12 that it will allow countries to purchase Russian crude oil and petroleum products currently in transit at sea within approximately one month [1][3] - This decision is a response to rising oil prices due to attacks on Iran and represents a temporary easing of sanctions against Russia for its ongoing aggression in Ukraine [1][3] - It is estimated that around 120 million barrels of Russian crude oil are currently stranded at sea following the attacks on Iran, and the U.S. government aims to facilitate their re-entry into the market [3] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that this limited and short-term measure applies only to oil in transit and will not provide significant economic benefits to the Russian government [3] - The Trump administration had previously taken steps on March 5 to allow India to purchase Russian crude oil within a month, indicating a broader trend of easing restrictions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the potential impact on oil markets due to Iranian threats and military actions against oil tankers [2][4][10]. Group 1: Current Situation in the Strait of Hormuz - Iranian forces have reportedly attacked oil tankers, leading to increased uncertainty regarding the safety of maritime shipping in the region [2][10]. - The U.S. military has declined to provide escort for civilian vessels through the Strait, citing the threat posed by Iran [5][4]. - President Trump has stated that the U.S. is closely monitoring the situation, but there is a lack of immediate military support for oil transport [6][5]. Group 2: Oil Market Reactions - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has decided to release a historic 400 million barrels of oil reserves to stabilize the market, yet oil prices continue to rise [10][11]. - As of March 11, oil prices reached over $87 per barrel, with further increases expected due to ongoing tensions [10]. - Analysts suggest that the market is reacting to fears of reduced oil supply, with Gulf countries' production potentially decreasing by 10 million barrels per day due to military conflicts [11]. Group 3: Future Implications - Iran's leadership has indicated a willingness to continue its aggressive stance, potentially leading to further disruptions in oil supply and price increases [10][11]. - The G7 nations are discussing the establishment of a maritime escort system, but implementation may take weeks [9][8]. - The situation remains fluid, with expectations that if transport disruptions continue, global oil supply could further decline [11].

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the global oil market is facing the most severe supply disruption in history due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with a significant supply gap expected if shipping does not recover quickly [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Disruption - The transportation volume of crude oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from an average of approximately 20 million barrels per day before military strikes on Iran to currently "extremely low levels" [1]. - Gulf countries have reduced their total daily crude oil production by at least 10 million barrels due to limited alternative shipping capacity and near-saturation of storage facilities [1]. - The IEA forecasts a drop of about 8 million barrels per day in global crude oil supply by March [1]. Group 2: Impact on Refining Capacity - The military strikes by the US and Israel have significantly impacted the global refined oil market, with over 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the Middle East currently offline [1]. - Other regions are also expected to face gradual limitations in refining due to insufficient raw material supply [1]. Group 3: Price Volatility and Strategic Reserves - Following the military actions against Iran, international oil prices have experienced extreme volatility, with Brent crude oil futures reaching nearly $120 per barrel [1]. - In response to the tightening global supply, IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels from strategic oil reserves [1]. - Global crude oil and refined oil inventories reached 8.21 billion barrels in January, the highest level since February 2021 [1]. Group 4: Temporary Measures - The release of oil reserves is viewed as a temporary measure, with the ultimate impact of the US-Israel conflict on the oil and gas market, as well as the overall economy, depending on the duration of shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Emphasize the tail risk of the Iran situation, which has a significant impact on the prices of crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and may drive up the prices of oil - chemical and oilseed products, while also causing concerns about inflation and economic recession [1] - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the Two Sessions. The US economy shows signs of slowdown, and China's economic data shows some positive trends [2] - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran on February 28, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a large - scale counter - attack. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation of the US and Israel, and there is a risk of the US increasing troops. The tail risk of the Iran situation has risen sharply [1] - The conflict has damaged energy and production facilities in the Middle East and surrounding areas, disrupted the production and supply chain, and severely blocked the passage of the Strait of Hormuz. The continuous rise in oil prices has driven up oil - chemical and oilseed products and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [1] - Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that Iran will not give up revenge, will continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and may open new fronts if necessary [1][6] Domestic Two Sessions - The 2026 government work report proposed an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan (an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year), and a general public budget expenditure scale of 30 trillion yuan for the first time (an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan from the previous year). An ultra - long - term special treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [2] - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure. After the Two Sessions, the stock index rebounds, especially the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2] Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metal sector, precious metals, and oil prices are inversely correlated. Rising inflation reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts and increases the risk of recession [3] - The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Japan will release about 80 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, Germany will release 2.4 million tons of reserves, and the US will start releasing SPR next week [3][6] - The conflict has led to the largest - ever supply disruption, with a daily reduction of 8 million barrels in global oil supply this month and a more than 90% drop in the transit flow of the Strait of Hormuz [3][6] - Oil price increases have a significant driving effect on oil - chemical products such as pure benzene, EB, PVC, PTA, ethylene glycol, and methanol, and the oilseed products in the agricultural sector are also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices [3] - The black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East on global oil prices, highlighting that oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022, driven by supply concerns and geopolitical risks [2][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - As of April 12, WTI crude oil futures reached $95.73 per barrel, marking a 9.72% increase, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 9.2% to $100.46 per barrel [2]. - The potential for oil prices to stabilize above $100 is contingent on the duration of supply disruptions and the extent of damage to production capabilities in the Middle East [3][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Geopolitical Factors - The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a historic release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, which could mitigate supply disruptions for approximately 20 to 25 days, given a daily supply shortfall of about 15 million barrels due to geopolitical conflicts [4][5]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route, has led to a significant reduction in oil shipments, with current transport volumes down over 90% from last year [4][5]. Group 3: Production Cuts and Market Reactions - Major Middle Eastern oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait, have collectively reduced their daily production by over 6.7 million barrels, approximately one-third of their total capacity [6]. - The IEA projects a global oil supply reduction of about 8 million barrels per day this month, totaling nearly 250 million barrels [4]. Group 4: U.S. Government Interventions - The U.S. government is exploring several intervention strategies to curb rising oil prices, including the release of strategic petroleum reserves, increasing shale oil production, and diplomatic efforts with OPEC [10][11]. - The effectiveness of these interventions may be limited by time lags in implementation and the current political landscape, particularly with the upcoming midterm elections [11][12]. Group 5: Future Scenarios - The article outlines two potential scenarios: a prolonged conflict leading to further price increases or a rapid resolution that could stabilize prices [13]. - Market expectations have already factored in some degree of conflict resolution, as indicated by a relatively modest decline in the S&P 500 index [12][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core logic of the crude oil market pricing is the degree and duration of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which will have a historically rare impact on global supply. High - risk pricing of oil prices will continue, and the center of oil prices may further rise [1][3]. - The short - term geopolitical situation still has a significant impact on the volatility of the fuel oil, asphalt, and other product markets. Investors are advised to control risks and pay attention to the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - The polyester chain is in a short - term tug - of - war between supply reduction and downstream negative feedback, and is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend [5]. - The rubber market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the external macro - atmosphere [6]. - The methanol market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and the Iranian situation, with large price fluctuations. Investors are advised to control risks [6]. - The polyolefin and PVC markets maintain a de - stocking rhythm, with relatively small fundamental pressure. Short - term geopolitical risks increase volatility, and attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Thursday, oil prices rose sharply. The WTI April contract closed up $8.48 to $95.73 per barrel, a 9.72% increase; the Brent May contract closed up $8.48 to $100.46 per barrel, a 9.22% increase; SC2604 closed at 769.8 yuan per barrel, up 57.5 yuan, an 8.07% increase [1]. - The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The IEA said that the Middle East conflict has caused the largest supply disruption in the global oil market, with the total oil production in the Middle East Gulf countries reduced by at least 10 million barrels per day, accounting for nearly 10% of global demand. The IEA also adjusted the 2026 global oil supply and demand forecasts [1]. - The core logic of crude oil market pricing is the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and high - risk pricing will continue, with the oil price center likely to rise [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 rose 9.2% to 4653 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 14.83% to 5653 yuan per ton [3]. - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is in short supply, and the inventory in Singapore and Fujeirah has changed. Short - term geopolitical changes affect market volatility [3]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2604 rose 5.68% to 3980 yuan per ton. The downstream restocking enthusiasm increased, but the refinery processing profit decreased, and the market is in a game between "strong cost" and "weak demand" [3][5]. 3.1.4 Polyester - The polyester chain varieties such as TA605, EG2605, and PX futures rose. The PX and ethylene glycol start - up loads decreased. The market is in a tug - of - war between supply reduction and downstream negative feedback, showing a moderately strong and volatile trend [5]. 3.1.5 Rubber - On Thursday, the main rubber contracts such as RU2605, NR, and BR fell. The start - up load of domestic tire enterprises changed. The synthetic rubber price followed the cost, and the natural rubber is about to enter the tapping season. The rubber price is expected to be volatile [5][6]. 3.1.6 Methanol - The methanol price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and the Iranian situation. The supply is in high - level oscillation, the demand is at a low level, and the price is expected to be volatile [6]. 3.1.7 Polyolefin - The prices of polyolefin products such as PP and PE changed. The upstream device maintenance plan increased, the downstream demand has growth potential, and the market maintains a de - stocking rhythm [7]. 3.1.8 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The PVC market price rose. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the calcium - carbide - based method has strong profits. The supply is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The IEA said that the Middle East conflict has caused the largest supply disruption in the global oil market, and adjusted the 2026 global oil supply and demand forecasts [12]. - Iran's Supreme Leader said that he will not give up revenge, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. The US military has refused to escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz due to high risks [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including the closing prices of main contracts, basis of main contracts, spreads of inter - period contracts, spreads of cross - varieties, and production profits, to show the historical trends and relationships of various energy and chemical products [14][32][42][56][64]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including the deputy director, research director, and analysts of different product categories, along with their professional backgrounds, honors, and research areas [70][71][72][73].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz and the release of strategic oil reserves by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [3][4]. Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has become increasingly complex, with conflicting statements from Iranian leaders regarding the passage of ships. Iran's Supreme Leader has vowed not to abandon revenge and to keep the Strait closed, while a deputy foreign minister indicated that some countries may still be allowed passage [4]. Supply Concerns - In response to potential supply disruptions due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, the IEA has approved the largest-ever emergency oil reserve release plan, amounting to 400 million barrels. This release is intended to address supply tightness caused by military actions involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran [5]. - Despite the significant volume of the release, analysts express skepticism about its effectiveness in fundamentally alleviating supply shortages. The slow delivery speed of the released reserves is a major concern, as the U.S. strategic reserves alone will take 120 days to deliver [6][7]. Market Outlook - Analysts from various institutions, including Huatai Futures and CITIC Futures, predict that the release of strategic reserves will not change the prevailing tight supply expectations. They emphasize that even with millions of barrels being released daily, the ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to exert upward pressure on oil prices [6][7]. - The market is expected to remain volatile and biased towards strength, as the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, with potential for further price fluctuations depending on geopolitical developments [7].