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避险情绪或升温,红利资产或是资金承接方!
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-02-24 07:09
截至2月18日,EPFR数据口径下,外资当周净流入港股10.2亿美元,但情绪指标已触及"贪婪"区间。历 史经验表明,极度乐观情绪后往往伴随回调风险。 (文章来源:每日经济新闻) 美东时间2月20日,美国去年四季度GDP增速受技术因素拖累回落至1.4%,但剔除后内需仍增2.4%,市 场对美联储的降息预期维持平稳,当前仍预计年内约两次降息,流动性环境料想不会发生明显变化。 在市场动荡期,具备央企信用背书、现金流稳定的红利资产是资金天然的承接方。其稳定的分红预期不 仅能提供下行保护,更能将外部不确定性转化为相对收益的来源。此外,指数化投资基于"分散化"原理 可应对宏观不确定性。 截至14:47,中证港股通央企红利指数(931233)下跌0.10%。成分股涨跌互现,中国建材领涨8.96%, 中国船舶租赁上涨4.70%,中国外运上涨2.95%;新华保险领跌5.29%,中国人民保险集团下跌3.57%, 中银香港下跌2.62%。 中证港股通央企红利指数(931233.CSI),从港股通范围内,选取中央企业实际控制的分红水平稳定且 股息率较高的50只上市公司股票进行打包;截至2月13日,该指数近1年股息率是5.79%,港股央 ...
最新LPR发布,如何理解?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-24 07:07
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 来源:金融时报 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布,2026年2月24日贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为:1年期 LPR为3.0%,5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。两个期限LPR均与上月持 平。 "2月份两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变,符合市场预期。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析,2月份 以来政策利率(央行7天期逆回购利率)保持稳定,意味着2月份LPR报价的定价基础没有发生变化,已 在很大程度上预示当月LPR报价会保持不动。另外,尽管受央行在春节前较大规模投放流动性等影响, 近期包括1年期商业银行(AAA级)同业存单到期收益率在内的主要中长端市场利率略有下行,但最新 数据显示,2025年四季度末商业银行净息差持续处于历史最低位,当前报价行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加 点的动力。 招联首席经济学家董希淼也持相似观点。他对《金融时报》记者分析,2026年2月LPR连续第9个月"按 兵不动",这背后的原因是多方面的,主要受到定价基础未变以及现有利率水平处于低位等多重因素影 响。 在业内人士看来,当前社会综 ...
2月第2周立体投资策略周报:跃资金延续流出-20260224
Guoxin Securities· 2026-02-24 06:54
Core Conclusions - In the second week of February, a total net outflow of funds from the market amounted to 72.3 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week's outflow of 52.2 billion yuan [1] - Short-term sentiment indicators are at a medium-high level since 2005, while long-term sentiment indicators are at a medium-low level since 2005 [1] - From an industry perspective, the highest trading volume in the past week was seen in the telecommunications, semiconductor, and electrical equipment sectors [1] Fund Flow Analysis - In the second week of February, the total net outflow of funds was 72.3 billion yuan, compared to 52.2 billion yuan in the previous week. Fund inflows included a decrease in financing balance by 74.7 billion yuan, an increase in public fund issuance by 43.6 billion yuan, net redemptions of ETFs amounting to 23.1 billion yuan, and an estimated net inflow of 3 billion yuan from northbound funds. Fund outflows included an IPO financing scale of 800 million yuan, net reduction of industrial capital by 10.1 billion yuan, and transaction fees of 10.3 billion yuan [8] Short-term Sentiment Indicators - The short-term sentiment indicators are currently at a medium-high level since 2005, with the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) at 430%, placing it in the 76th percentile historically. The recent weekly financing transaction ratio is 9.74%, placing it in the 72nd percentile historically [15] Long-term Sentiment Indicators - The long-term sentiment indicators are at a medium-low level since 2005. The recent weekly A-share risk premium (the inverse of the overall A-share PE minus the yield of ten-year government bonds) is 2.52%, placing it in the 45th percentile historically. The recent weekly dividend yield of the CSI 300 index (excluding financials) compared to the yield of ten-year government bonds is 1.23, placing it in the 5th percentile historically [15] Industry Performance - In terms of trading volume, the top three industries with the highest historical percentile for transaction volume in the past week were telecommunications (99%), semiconductors (98%), and electrical equipment (97%). The lowest were real estate (1%), food processing (1%), and transportation (1%) [15] - The highest financing transaction ratio by industry was seen in machinery equipment (88%), electrical equipment (80%), and social services (78%), while the lowest were banking (10%), coal (12%), and real estate (17%) [15]
策略周报:2 月第2 周立体投资策略周报:活跃资金延续流出-20260224
Guoxin Securities· 2026-02-24 06:51
Core Conclusions - In the second week of February, a total net outflow of funds from the market amounted to 72.3 billion yuan, an increase from the previous week's outflow of 52.2 billion yuan [1] - Short-term sentiment indicators are at a medium-high level since 2005, while long-term sentiment indicators are at a medium-low level since 2005 [1] - From an industry perspective, the highest trading volume share in the past week was seen in the telecommunications, semiconductor, and electrical equipment sectors [1] Fund Flow Analysis - In the second week of February, the total net outflow of funds was 72.3 billion yuan, compared to 52.2 billion yuan in the previous week. Fund inflows included a decrease in financing balance by 74.7 billion yuan, an increase in public fund issuance by 43.6 billion yuan, net redemptions of ETFs amounting to 23.1 billion yuan, and an estimated net inflow of northbound funds of 3 billion yuan. Fund outflows included an IPO financing scale of 800 million yuan, net reduction of industrial capital by 10.1 billion yuan, and transaction fees of 10.3 billion yuan [8] Short-term Sentiment Indicators - The short-term sentiment indicators, which primarily consider turnover rate and financing transaction ratio, show that the recent weekly turnover rate (annualized) was 430%, currently at the 76th percentile historically. The recent weekly financing transaction ratio was 9.74%, currently at the 72nd percentile historically [15] Long-term Sentiment Indicators - The long-term sentiment indicators, which mainly look at the price comparison of major asset classes, indicate that the recent weekly A-share risk premium (the inverse of the overall A-share PE minus the yield of ten-year government bonds) was 2.52%, currently at the 45th percentile historically. Additionally, the recent weekly dividend yield of the CSI 300 index (excluding financials) compared to the yield of ten-year government bonds was 1.23, currently at the 5th percentile historically [15] Industry Performance - In terms of trading volume share, the top three industries with the highest historical percentile in the past week were telecommunications at 99%, semiconductors at 98%, and electrical equipment at 97%. The lowest were real estate at 1%, food processing at 1%, and transportation at 1% [15] - The highest financing transaction ratio by industry was seen in machinery equipment at 88%, electrical equipment at 80%, and social services at 78%. The lowest were banking at 10%, coal at 12%, and real estate at 17% [15]
2026年1月信用利差月报:配置盘支撑下,1月信用利差全线收窄-20260224
Dong Fang Jin Cheng· 2026-02-24 06:51
——2026 年 1 月信用利差月报 作者 分析师 姚宇彤 2026 年 2 月 9 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 配置盘支撑下,1 月信用利差全线收窄 2026 年 1 月,债市整体偏强震荡:年初至中旬股市和商品市场表现强劲, 对债市形成压制;下旬,受获利盘出逃、融资保证金升高等因素影响,权益 市场情绪降温,加之公募基金费率新规正式稿温和落地,缓解债基赎回担忧, 以及央行结构性货币政策工具降息、配置型机构大力买入等因素支撑,债市 呈现修复行情。由于信用债相对利率债更具票息优势,银行、保险"开门红" 增加信用债配置需求,以及摊余债基集中开放期投资偏好转向信用债,1 月 信用债表现好于利率债,信用利差全线收窄。 核心观点 ·· 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 部门执行总监 于丽峰 部门执行总监 冯琳 1 月,债券市场整体偏强震荡,在信用债相对利率债更具票息 优势,银行、保险"开门红"增加信用债配置需求,以及摊 余债基集中开放期投资偏好转向信用债等因素带动下,信用 债表现好于利率债,信用利差全线收窄。目前,短久期信用 债利差普遍已压缩至历史低位,中长久期部分品种仍有一定 的利差空间,且考虑到摊余债基开放对 ...
聚焦跨境在途融资:专业靠谱机构哪家强?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-24 06:42
做跨境电商的卖家,恐怕都有过这样的焦虑:货物发往海外,要等1-2个月才能收到回款,期间新订单备货、供应链补款、物流费结算全卡壳,在 途资金占压成了业务扩张的最大瓶颈。近日,随着跨境物流时效波动加大,在途融资需求持续攀升,究竟哪家机构更专业靠谱?我们对比了头部 机构的服务差异: 某安银行作为传统金融机构,资金实力雄厚,风控体系成熟,但审批流程相对繁琐,需卖家提供较多线下证明材料,放款周期一般在3-5个工作 日,对资金周转效率要求高的中小卖家来说,灵活性略显不足,更适合大型外贸企业。 其服务网络覆盖223个国家和地区,联动外综、物流、支付机构形成服务闭环,支持多币种融资,适配Amazon、Shopify、Lazada等多平台卖家, 尤其在东南亚、拉美等新兴市场的物流路线覆盖上优势明显。目前掌金数据正与亚马逊全球智能枢纽仓(GWD)推进深度合作,未来可提供物流 +融资的一体化解决方案,不少新兴市场卖家反馈,其对中小卖家的"精准滴灌"更接地气。 2. 蚂蚁集团跨境金融:支付生态绑定性强 依托 某宝的支付生态,蚂蚁跨境金融的优势在于支付数据联动,流程相对顺畅,但服务更多偏向 某里系平台(速卖通、Lazada)卖家,对独 ...
港股渣打集团转涨逾3%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-02-24 06:37
每经AI快讯,2月24日,渣打集团(02888.HK)午后探底回升,现涨超3%,此前曾跌超2%。截至发稿, 渣打集团涨3.65%,报199港元,成交额2.23亿港元。 ...
港股异动 | 渣打集团(02888)转涨逾3% 去年除税前基本溢利增18% 宣布全新15亿美元股份回购
智通财经网· 2026-02-24 06:24
消息面上,渣打集团午间发布2025年全年度业绩,按固定汇率基准,该集团取得经营收入209亿美元, 同比上升6%,倘剔除重大项目则增加8%;除税前基本溢利79亿美元,同比增加18%;除税前列账基准 溢利70亿美元,同比增加18%;每股基本盈利229.7美仙,拟派发末期股息每股49美仙,去年同期为28 美仙。此外,渣打集团宣布全新的15亿美元股份回购。 智通财经APP获悉,渣打集团(02888)午后探底回升,现涨超3%,此前曾跌超2%。截至发稿,涨 3.65%,报199港元,成交额2.23亿港元。 ...
金融行业周报:1月人民币贷款余额增速回落、交易所优化再融资举措-20260224
Ping An Securities· 2026-02-24 06:24
证券研究报告 金融行业周报 ——1月人民币贷款余额增速回落、交易所优化再融资举措 证券分析师 袁喆奇S1060520080003(证券投资咨询) 李冰婷S1060520040002(证券投资咨询) 许 淼S1060525020001(证券投资咨询) 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021(一般证券业务) 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026年2月24日 1 核心观点 央行公布26年1月金融统计数据、沪深北交易所优化再融资举措 1、央行公布2026年1月金融统计数据。2月13日,央行发布2026年1月金融统计数据。1月末,新增人民币贷款4.71万亿元, 同比少增4200亿元,余额同比增速 6.1%,其中企(事)业单位贷款是主要支撑,住户贷款增长偏弱。社会融资规模增量达 7.22万亿元,超出市场预期,同比多增1662亿元,社融余额同比增速8.2%,对实体经济发放的人民币贷款仍是社融主力, 企业债券和政府债券融资同比明显多增。M2同比增长9.0%,M1同比增长4.9%,M0同比增长2.7%,整体货币环境保持宽松, 为稳增长提供了有力支撑。 2、央行发布《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》。2月10日,央行 ...
渣打集团转涨逾3% 去年除税前基本溢利增18% 宣布全新15亿美元股份回购
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-02-24 06:22
渣打集团(02888)午后探底回升,现涨超3%,此前曾跌超2%。截至发稿,涨3.65%,报199港元,成交额 2.23亿港元。 消息面上,渣打集团午间发布2025年全年度业绩,按固定汇率基准,该集团取得经营收入209亿美元, 同比上升6%,倘剔除重大项目则增加8%;除税前基本溢利79亿美元,同比增加18%;除税前列账基准 溢利70亿美元,同比增加18%;每股基本盈利229.7美仙,拟派发末期股息每股49美仙,去年同期为28 美仙。此外,渣打集团宣布全新的15亿美元股份回购。 ...