新华社香港11月20日电 香港恒生指数20日涨4.92点，涨幅0.02%，收报25835.57点。全日主板成交 2451.36亿港元。 香港本地股方面，长实集团涨1.48%，收报39.88港元；新鸿基地产跌0.6%，收报98.75港元；恒基 地产涨0.54%，收报29.72港元。 中资金融股方面，中国银行涨1.93%，收报4.75港元；建设银行涨1.11%，收报8.22港元；工商银行 涨1.24%，收报6.53港元；中国平安涨0.09%，收报58.25港元；中国人寿涨0.82%，收报26.9港元。 石油石化股方面，中国石油化工股份跌0.22%，收报4.56港元；中国石油股份跌0.33%，收报9港 元；中国海洋石油跌0.45%，收报21.96港元。 国企指数跌7.7点，收报9143.34点，跌幅0.08%。恒生科技指数跌32.31点，收报5574.59点，跌幅 0.58%。 蓝筹股方面，腾讯控股跌0.24%，收报621港元；香港交易所涨0.29%，收报417.6港元；中国移动涨 0.17%，收报86.5港元；汇丰控股跌0.19%，收报107.6港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC is restructuring its trading division to become a major player in debt financing, driven by CEO Georges Elhedery [1][2] Group 1: Restructuring Details - The G10 currency rates trading department will merge with the foreign exchange, emerging markets rates, and commodities departments to form a new global macro department [1] - Derivatives clearing services will be integrated into the global equities team [1] - All remaining debt market operations, including high-yield and investment-grade bond trading, will fall under a unified "Global Credit and Financing" framework [1] Group 2: Leadership and Management Changes - The new global macro team will be led by Volkan Benihasim, while Franck Lacour will continue to oversee the equities business [2] - A brief internal selection process will be conducted for the new head of Global Credit and Financing, currently led by Antoine Maurel and Monish Tahilramani [2] - Global debt markets head Mehmet Mazi will explore other opportunities as part of the changes [2] Group 3: Strategic Goals - HSBC aims to leverage its large balance sheet to gain more business in trading and markets [2] - The initiatives reflect HSBC's ambition to become a "financing giant," with a focus on prudent technology investments aligned with its leadership goals in financing and trading banking [2]

Group 1 - Nvidia's earnings report exceeded market expectations, leading to a projected significant increase in its stock price and alleviating some concerns about the AI bubble, which in turn boosted global risk assets [1] - Nvidia's market capitalization surpasses that of five sectors within the S&P 500, highlighting its substantial influence in the market [1] Group 2 - A-shares underperformed globally, with the market showing a divergence from international trends, primarily due to internal structural factors and the resilience of certain sectors like banking and oil [8][10] - Despite recent declines, A-shares have experienced relatively less impact compared to other global markets, with only a minor drop in major indices [11] Group 3 - The Hong Kong market is facing challenges due to several factors, including decreased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the impact of IPOs and placements [14][16] - The unlocking of shares for companies like Ningde Times has led to significant sell-offs, as investors react to perceived overvaluation in the Hong Kong market compared to A-shares [17] Group 4 - The merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with other firms is seen as part of a broader trend in the financial industry towards consolidation, aiming to create a more competitive brokerage [27][34] - The merger is expected to enhance CICC's client base and operational footprint, particularly in regions like Liaoning and Fujian [33] Group 5 - The investment strategy of focusing on free cash flow-related products is gaining traction, with a notable increase in assets under management for related funds, indicating a shift towards more stable investment approaches [37][38]

策略点评 证券分析师 程强 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 11 月 20 日 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 银行带头护盘 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 11 月 20 日周四，A 股市场调整；国债期货盘整，30 年期下跌；商 品多数下跌，碳酸锂突破 10 万。 一、市场行情分析 图 1：沪指企稳，市场再度缩量 资料来源：Wind，德邦研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1）股票市场：股指多数下行，整体情绪仍偏低 股指多数下行，整体情绪偏低。11 月 20 日，A 股高开低走，其中：上证指数收跌 0.4%报 3931.05 点，深证成指跌 0.76%，创业板指跌 1.12%，北证 50 跌 1.07%， 科创 50 跌 1.24%，万得全 A 跌 0.66%，万得 ...

英伟达有两个细分业务的数据超出市场预期。一是数据中心，三季度数据中心营收512亿美元，同比增 长66%，市场预期为493.4亿美元；二是专业可视化营收7.6亿美元，市场预期为6.128亿美元。 还有两个细分业务的数据不及预期。一是游戏和AI PC业务营收43亿美元，市场预期为44.2亿美元；汽 车和机器人业务营收5.92亿美元，市场预期为6.209亿美元。 英伟达财报显示，三季度营业收入570.1亿美元，同比增长约62%，而此前市场预期为551.9亿美元。 北京时间今天凌晨，英伟达公布了最新财报。 英伟达同时也给出了四季度的业绩指引，公司预计四季度营收为637亿至663亿美元，而市场预期的中值 为619.8亿美元。 英伟达的业绩，在一定程度上打破了"AI泡沫"的阴云。盘后，英伟达股价涨幅超过5%，英伟达云计算 的"亲儿子"Coreweave盘后大涨超10%。 对于AI泡沫论，英伟达CEO黄仁勋在财报电话会上表示，"我们看到的和AI泡沫截然相反"。 英伟达首席财务官Colette Kress表示，公司目前对从今年初到2026日历年年底的Blackwell和Rubin平台收 入，已有5000亿美元的能见度。 Co ...

另外，禤惠仪称，银行公会欢迎香港金管局公布新一份金融科技发展策略"Fintech 2030"，聚焦统称 为"DART"的四大重点领域，包括建设数据及支付基建、应用人工智能、提升业务和科技韧性，以及促 进金融代币化。 智通财经APP获悉，香港银行公会主席禤惠仪在例会后表示，全球市场关注美联储12月议息会议。经过 今年两次降息，市场原预期美国有机会再降25个基点，但美联储上月议息后对是否进一步降息未明确表 态，同时利率期货数据显示降息预期正逐渐降温，增加降息步伐的不确定性，导致市场目前对美联储降 息看法仍出现分歧。展望今年余下时间，全球市场环境仍然充满不明朗因素，要继续密切关注反复多变 的贸易谈判和地缘政治局势。 她提到，今年以来，港股交投活跃，持续录得强劲的资金流入。中美元首上月会面后达成多项经贸协 议，双方开放对话和正面的会面成果，缓和关税相关的不明朗因素，对全球市场有提振作用。港府上周 亦上调全年经济预测至3.2%，反映经济持续改善。 她认为，"Fintech 2030"的愿景清晰而全面，在业界过去5年推动"Fintech 2025"的数码转型成果上，进一 步提出具前瞻性又稳健的策略，以促进香港金融科技长远 ...

•纽约梅隆银行：亚洲外储充足，进口覆盖率处于有利水平，区域抗风险能力强劲 转自：新华财经 •纽约梅隆银行（BNY）指出，尽管部分国家已动用储备稳定汇率，但整体外储仍处高位，区域内各国 进口覆盖率维持在"非常有利"的水平，抗风险能力较强。 •高盛策略师指出，2025年美元与VIX指数（美股波动率指标）的关系发生显著反转，过去五年二者正 相关（恐慌时美元走强），如今却常同步下跌，显示美元作为传统避险资产的吸引力正在减弱。过度关 注美元与标普500的相关性会掩盖其"挥之不去的脆弱性"，而这种脆弱性在美元与VIX的负向联动中更 为清晰，尽管近期相关性略有回归"正常"，但结构性变化值得警惕。 •德意志银行分析师表示，英伟达第三财季业绩显著超预期，在AI计算、网络、软件及系统领域持续领 跑，与同行差距或进一步拉大。管理层预计2025年初至2026年底数据中心相关收入将达约5000亿美元。 基于强劲增长动能，分析师已将英伟达2026–2027财年收入及每股收益预期上调"低双位数百分比"，并 强调其在人工智能基础设施领域的主导地位日益巩固。 •截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数为23.2万，与9月水平基本持平，未现恶化 ...

证券日报网讯 11月20日晚间，常熟银行发布公告称，基于对本行内在价值、未来战略规划及长远发展 前景的坚定信心，坚信本行股票长期投资价值，本行行长陆鼎昌先生，副行长张康德先生、干晴女士、 程鹏飞先生、倪建峰先生，董事会秘书唐志锋先生（以下简称"增持主体"）计划自公告披露之日起6个 月内，通过上海证券交易所交易系统集中竞价交易方式合计增持本行A股股份不少于55万股。陆鼎昌先 生的行长任职资格，张康德先生、倪建峰先生的副行长任职资格尚需取得国家金融监督管理总局苏州监 管分局核准。本次增持主体增持所需的资金来源为自有资金，不存在因所需资金不到位而导致后续增持 无法实施的风险。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - Barclays believes that the AI investment boom is triggering a global supercycle in commodities, presenting significant opportunities for investors [3][5]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Commodity Demand - Barclays estimates that capital expenditure by cloud service providers will exceed $2.5 trillion over the next five years, with copper demand being the most prominent [5][6]. - The report highlights that the demand for specific minerals and rare earth elements will surge due to ongoing upgrades in AI infrastructure [3][5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that $500-600 billion in new investments will be needed for copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt over the next 15 years, with copper accounting for half of this demand [7][8]. Group 2: Beneficiary Countries - Mining-exporting countries like Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are positioned to benefit significantly from this investment cycle [10][9]. - Australia, Indonesia, and Brazil are also expected to see substantial gains from the export of other minerals and rare earth elements [11]. - Despite global mineral extraction being widespread, China dominates the refining sector, processing nearly 50% of global refined minerals, indicating a sustained tight trade relationship with the world [11]. Group 3: Historical Insights and Trade Conditions - Historical commodity boom periods, particularly those led by China from 2002-2007 and 2010-2014, show that fixed capital formation in commodity-exporting countries significantly contributes to GDP growth [13][15]. - The current supercycle is characterized by a decoupling of copper prices from oil prices, which traditionally have been correlated [20][24]. - This decoupling creates favorable trade conditions for countries that are net oil importers but major exporters of key minerals, enhancing their currencies' strength [24][28].

Core Viewpoint - The recent approvals by the National Financial Supervision Administration for several banks to acquire their affiliated rural banks and convert them into direct branches signify a shift from quantity expansion to quality enhancement in the rural banking sector [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Developments - Multiple cases of "village to branch" transformations have been approved, indicating a significant acceleration in the reform and restructuring of small and medium-sized banks [2]. - In November, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank successfully acquired two rural banks, converting them into branches, showcasing a trend among various banking institutions to engage in mergers and acquisitions of rural banks [2]. - The restructuring methods "village to branch" and "village to division" are becoming mainstream, allowing banks to absorb rural banks and enhance their operational capabilities [2][3]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The absorption of rural banks into larger banking institutions enhances service capabilities and risk resilience for rural banking services [3]. - For the parent banks, the restructuring expands their business scope and allows for the potential establishment of new branches in areas where they previously had no presence [3]. Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - The acceleration of rural bank integration aligns with regulatory directives aimed at reducing the number of financial institutions while improving service quality [4]. - As of mid-2025, the number of rural banks is projected to decrease to 1,440, reflecting a significant reduction in the sector, which is part of a broader strategy to enhance service quality through consolidation [4]. - The integration of rural banks is not merely about reducing the number of branches but represents a strategic shift towards more focused and quality-driven financial services [4].