瑞银（UBS）重申了其对铜的建设性立场，认为即使市场在短期内经历了供需疲软期，铜的结构性紧缩 状况仍然未改。 以Daniel Major为首的瑞银分析师团队认为，现货市场"平衡但并不紧张"，一些细分市场的需求疲软， 以及与关税相关的预购积压，打压了市场情绪。 然而，矿山生产中断、评级下调和投资者对硬资产重新燃起的兴趣使投机性头寸居高不下。 瑞银团队认为，铜的配置在2026年仍然有利。他们预计需求将增长约3%，而矿山和精炼供应增长不到 1%，他们认为这将导致供应短缺、库存减少和基本面更加稳固。 然而，该团队警告称，目前的环境不太可能在短期内支撑铜价持续突破每吨11,000美元。 "由于需求不太可能在短期内产生影响，精炼产量保持不变，LME净头寸上升，我们认为，基本面收紧 不太可能为LME铜在短期内持续突破11,000美元提供催化剂。" 在精炼铜方面，尽管精矿供应紧张，且废铜可用性有限，但产量仍保持惊人的韧性。据中国国家统计局 发布的数据显示，1-9月中国精炼铜产量同比增加10.0%。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 包括菲律宾、纳米比亚和智利在内的其他国家的减产不足以抵消这一增长。瑞银 ...

Core Insights - Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd. has been awarded an A-level rating for its information disclosure work for the fourth consecutive year, reflecting its commitment to high-quality information disclosure and investor relations [1][2]. Group 1: Information Disclosure Evaluation - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange's evaluation focuses on the quality and compliance of information disclosure, including governance, disclosure effectiveness, and investor relations management [1]. - A-level is the highest rating for information disclosure work, indicating Yunnan Copper's adherence to regulatory standards and best practices [1]. Group 2: Governance and Compliance - The company completed a reform of its supervisory board in June 2025, revising its governance documents to strengthen operational norms and oversight [1]. - Yunnan Copper has implemented a strict announcement review mechanism to ensure the quality of its information disclosure, achieving "zero errors" in daily disclosures [1]. Group 3: Investor Relations - The company emphasizes investor-centric communication, expanding channels to convey its development strategies and operational results, thereby enhancing the stability of investor returns [1]. - Yunnan Copper has received multiple awards for its investor relations management, including the "Best Practice Award for Investor Relations Management" and "Best Practice Award for Board of Directors" [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain high standards in information disclosure and investor relations to drive its high-quality development [2].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly focusing on the recent trends in the market, including the performance of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF and the underlying factors affecting metal prices and demand [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Non-Ferrous 50 ETF Performance - As of November 17, 2025, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) decreased by 0.39%, with a latest price of 1.53 yuan [1]. - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 62 million units, with an estimated net subscription amount exceeding 94 million yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF reached 2.829 billion yuan, with a significant increase in shares by 13.46 million units over the past three months [2]. Group 2: Market Trends and Demand - The lithium industry is experiencing high growth due to strong demand in the energy storage market, with expectations of over 60% growth next year driven by domestic pricing policies and international demand [2]. - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long term due to supply constraints, with Freeport reducing copper production and ongoing demand recovery in the cable industry [3]. - The aluminum sector faces challenges due to power supply constraints, which may accelerate the exit of high-cost aluminum production and delay new capacity investments [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF is highlighted as a leading investment option due to its high "gold and copper content," with copper accounting for 33% and gold for 13% of the index [4]. - The ETF has shown superior performance since 2022, with a cumulative return leading its peers and a lower maximum drawdown [5]. - The index's growth is driven by earnings rather than valuation, with a current PE ratio of 23.74, down 61% from five years ago, indicating a favorable valuation [6].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Uncertainty Persists, Copper Prices Fluctuate at High Levels [1] Report Date - November 17, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level, closing at 86,900 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.11%. The end of the US government shutdown boosted market confidence, but the Fed's internal differences on interest rates made the market cautious. Fundamentally, the copper concentrate TC remains at a historically low negative level, and the shortage of copper mines supports the medium - and long - term price center of copper. Domestic electrolytic copper production may remain low due to anti - involution expectations in copper smelting and anode copper supply. The decline in copper prices has boosted terminal demand, and copper prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level [5]. - The US government shutdown end boosted market confidence, but the upcoming release of employment and inflation data adds uncertainty. The Fed's policy expectation has turned cautious, and the probability of a December interest rate cut has dropped significantly. Fundamentally, the copper concentrate TC has rebounded slightly but remains negative, strongly supporting copper prices. After the peak season, high copper prices have suppressed downstream consumption, and overall consumption is average. Although domestic and foreign inventories are stable, there is a slight increase. In the long term, the demand for copper is optimistic, but in the short term, the suppression of consumption by high copper prices and the impact of Fed policy changes should be noted. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position range trading [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level, closing at 86,900 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.11%. The end of the US government shutdown boosted market confidence, but the Fed's internal differences on interest rates made the market cautious [5]. 1.2 Supply Side - As of November 14, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 530,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.43%. The spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 41.72 US dollars/ton, still at a historical low. In October, the domestic southern copper scrap processing fee was 1,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous month; the imported CIF copper scrap processing fee was 90 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous month. Domestic electrolytic copper production continued to decline. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31% [8]. 1.3 Demand Side - As of November 13, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 66.88%, a week - on - week increase of 4.91 percentage points. The decline in copper prices increased downstream purchasing sentiment, and new orders were concentratedly released, leading to an increase in the operating rate of refined copper rods. In October, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 64.97%, 84.22%, and 43.48% respectively. High copper prices in October suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and terminal demand was not released as expected. The overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was weak. The sales of new energy vehicles continued to be good, and the demand in the traditional peak season continued to grow at a high rate; some energy storage enterprises were still in the capacity - climbing stage, continuously releasing new production, and the operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased for six consecutive months. High copper prices suppressed demand, and the operating rate of brass rods decreased under pressure [9]. 1.4 Inventory - As of November 14, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 10.94 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.89%. As of November 13, the domestic social copper inventory was 201,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08%. The decline in copper prices increased downstream purchasing sentiment. As of November 14, the LME copper inventory was 135,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%, and the de - stocking of LME copper slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 38,130 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.23%, and the inventory continued to increase [9]. 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to wait and see or conduct light - position range trading due to macroeconomic uncertainty and fundamental factors [10]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - China's October RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.6, remaining above the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, indicating continuous improvement in manufacturing sentiment but a slowdown in growth [14]. - China's October exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. In the first 10 months of 2025, China's total goods trade volume increased by 3.6% year - on - year [14]. - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 30,000 ounces in October, for the 12th consecutive month of increase [14]. - The US October ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth consecutive month due to weak production and demand [14]. - The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI final value was 50, indicating stagnation. The manufacturing PMIs of Germany and France remained in the contraction zone [14]. - The US officially included copper in the new critical minerals list, which may affect future tariff policies and trade restrictions [14]. 2.2 Industrial News Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration optimized the new energy allocation and consumption plan, aiming to establish a new energy consumption and regulation system by 2030 [16]. - China's new social financing in October was 81 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. The social financing scale in the first 10 months of 2025 increased by 3.83 trillion yuan year - on - year [16]. - China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year in October, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail slowed down to 2.9% [16]. - The number of private sector jobs in the US decreased by 45,000 in October, the largest decline in two and a half years [16]. - The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the US government restarted after a 43 - day shutdown [16]. 3. Futures and Spot Markets and Positioning 3.1 Premium and Discount - As copper prices declined, the spot trading of Shanghai copper improved, but then the spot price of Shanghai copper was under pressure as the price center slightly increased. The spot premium and discount of Shanghai copper stabilized near the delivery date. The LME copper 0 - 3 maintained a narrowing discount, and the price difference between New York and London copper weakened [20]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of November 14, the futures position of Shanghai copper was 192,293 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7.17%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 90,993.80 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 30.24%. The position and trading volume of Shanghai copper decreased significantly. As of November 7, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 10,989.12 lots, a week - on - week increase of 11.43%, and the net long position continued to rise [23]. 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The contradiction between mining and smelting continued, and the TC remained at a low level. As of November 14, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 530,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.43%. The spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 41.72 US dollars/ton, still at a historical low. In October, the domestic southern copper scrap processing fee was 1,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous month; the imported CIF copper scrap processing fee was 90 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous month. Domestic electrolytic copper production continued to decline. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31% [28]. 4.2 Downstream Operating Rates - As of November 13, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 66.88%, a week - on - week increase of 4.91 percentage points. The decline in copper prices increased downstream purchasing sentiment, and new orders were concentratedly released, leading to an increase in the operating rate of refined copper rods. In October, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 64.97%, 84.22%, and 43.48% respectively. High copper prices in October suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and terminal demand was not released as expected. The overall operating rate of copper strip enterprises was weak. The sales of new energy vehicles continued to be good, and the demand in the traditional peak season continued to grow at a high rate; some energy storage enterprises were still in the capacity - climbing stage, continuously releasing new production, and the operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased for six consecutive months. High copper prices suppressed demand, and the operating rate of brass rods decreased under pressure [32]. 4.3 Inventory - As of November 14, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 10.94 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.89%. As of November 13, the domestic social copper inventory was 201,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08%. The decline in copper prices increased downstream purchasing sentiment. As of November 14, the LME copper inventory was 135,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%, and the de - stocking of LME copper slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 38,130 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.23%, and the inventory continued to increase [36]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report Core View - The reduction in LME copper inventory supports copper prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main - contract was 86,900 with a daily decline of 0.74%, and the night - session closing price was 86,680 with a decline of 0.25%. The LME 3M copper electronic - trading price was 10,846 with a decline of 0.12%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 238,872 (a decrease of 297 from the previous day), and the open interest was 553,083 (a decrease of 8,572). The trading volume of the LME 3M copper electronic - trading was 40,992 (an increase of 21,594), and the open interest was 326,000 (an increase of 5,006). The Shanghai Copper inventory was 49,830 (an increase of 5,873), and the LME copper inventory was 135,725 (a decrease of 450) [1]. - **Spot Data**: The LME copper premium, Shanghai 1 bright copper price, and bonded - area bill of lading premium remained unchanged. The spot - to - near - month futures spread increased by 5, the near - month to consecutive - first - month contract spread decreased by 50, and the cross - period arbitrage cost of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive - first - month contract was 202. The Shanghai copper spot - to - LME cash spread decreased by 135, the Shanghai Copper consecutive - third - month contract to LME 3M spread decreased by 15, the Shanghai copper spot - to - Shanghai 1 recycled copper spread decreased by 235, and the recycled copper import profit and loss increased by 446 [1]. **Macro and Industry News** - **Macro News**: Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy policies and measures to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption. The hawkish faction of the Federal Reserve is prominent and opposes a December interest - rate cut, while Milan calls for a rate cut again [1]. - **Industry News**: The United States officially announced a new list of critical minerals, including copper for the first time. Tanzania has reopened its border with Zambia, resuming the flow of goods on this important trade corridor between the two major African copper - exporting countries. Freeport Indonesia completed the investigation of the mudslide incident at its Grasberg copper - gold mine. Peru's copper production in September increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 240,995 tons, and the production in the first nine months of 2025 was about 2.048 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. Marimaca Copper's copper oxide mine project in Chile's Antofagasta Region obtained environmental approval [1][3]. **Trend Intensity** - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a current price of $10,834 per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.17% from the opening price [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Market Overview - On November 14, LME copper futures opened at $10,881.5, reached a high of $10,922.0, a low of $10,755.0, and closed at $10,846.0, showing a slight decline of 0.12% [1] - The current trading range for LME copper futures is between $10,800 and $10,850.5 per ton [1] Group 2: Copper Market Data - As of November 14, the electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London is 7.99, with an import loss of 809.1 yuan per ton, slightly improved from a loss of 826.78 yuan per ton the previous trading day [1] - LME registered copper warrants total 126,075 tons, with 9,650 tons canceled, resulting in a net decrease of 475 tons. Total copper inventory stands at 135,725 tons, down by 450 tons [1] Group 3: Chinese Copper Concentrate Inventory - As of November 14, Mysteel reports that the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports is 740,000 tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous week [1] - The inventory at seven major Chinese ports is reported at 530,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 32,000 tons [1]

Group 1 - The company announced a cash dividend distribution plan for the first half of 2025, proposing a payout of 0.05 RMB per share to all shareholders, amounting to a total cash dividend of 670 million RMB (before tax) [1] - The dividend will be distributed based on a total share capital of 13.409 billion shares, excluding any repurchased shares [1] - The record date for the dividend distribution is set for November 21, 2025, with the ex-dividend date on November 24, 2025 [1]

Group 1: Industrial Metals - The price of copper is expected to remain elevated due to the suspension of operations at the Grasberg mine, with a projected global copper shortage of approximately 1% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, primarily due to the anticipated resumption of production at Grasberg and Panama mines [2][3] - Aluminum profitability is expected to increase further, with China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization reaching 98%, leading to potential shortages if supply decreases or demand increases [2][3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by multiple factors including weakening U.S. non-farm data, manageable inflation, and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates [3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China having added gold for 12 consecutive months [3] Group 3: Energy Metals - The introduction of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to lead to a long-term increase in cobalt prices, with export quotas significantly lower than market expectations [4][5] - The global lithium industry is anticipated to enter a new cycle of prosperity, driven by strong demand from the rapidly growing electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [6] Group 4: Minor Metals - China's dominance in rare earth resources is solidified, with the country controlling approximately 50% of global reserves and 90% of oxide production, leading to a potential increase in prices [7] - Tungsten prices may rise due to recovering overseas demand and the easing of export controls, while antimony prices are rebounding following recent export control relaxations [8][9] Group 5: Uranium - The demand for natural uranium is expected to rise in line with increasing nuclear power generation, with projections indicating that China's nuclear power capacity could become the largest in the world by 2030 [10] Group 6: Recommended Stocks - A selection of companies is recommended for investment across various metals, including copper, aluminum, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals [11]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the support from mine - end interference at the lower end, but the demand side lacks a strong performance. The price is likely to fluctuate between 85,000 yuan/ton and 89,000 yuan/ton. Entities can arrange buy or sell hedging based on this range. Arbitrage should be postponed, and the option strategy is short put [7]. Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 13, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 87,100 yuan/ton and closed at 87,550 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session opened at 87,650 yuan/ton and closed at 87,400 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at 87,040 - 87,380 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 50 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The copper price increase curbed downstream procurement. It is expected that the spot discount will not widen further near the delivery, and today's trading will center around par [2]. - **Important Information**: The US October CPI report was not released as scheduled. The 9 - month employment report may show only new employment data. Some Fed officials are cautious about further rate cuts due to inflation above the 2% target [3]. Mine End Hudbay Minerals maintained its 2025 copper and gold production guidance. It expects copper production to be near the lower limit of 117,000 - 149,000 pounds and gold production near the lower limit of 247,500 - 308,000 ounces. The company lowered the full - year comprehensive cash cost guidance for copper [4]. Smelting and Import Taseko Mines' third - quarter revenue was 174 million Canadian dollars. The core Gibraltar mine increased copper production, with improved grade and recovery rate, and reduced C1 cost. The Arizona Florence Copper project is about to produce the first batch of cathode copper [5]. Consumption In October, China's non - ferrous metal industry prosperity index was 31.8, up 1.4 points from the previous month, remaining in the lower - middle of the "normal" range. The leading index and the coincident index also increased [5]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts LME warehouse receipts remained at 136,175 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 131 tons to 43,957 tons. On November 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 201,100 tons, up 5,200 tons from the previous week [6]. Price Table Data The report provides data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, import profit, and Shanghai - London ratio for different time points from October 15, 2025, to November 14, 2025 [25][26][27][28].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Copper Industry Co., Ltd. announced a capital increase in its subsidiary, China Copper International Trade Group Co., Ltd. (referred to as China Copper International), to enhance its capital strength and optimize its asset-liability structure [1] Group 1: Capital Increase Details - Yunnan Copper and China Copper each plan to increase their investment in China Copper International by 320 million yuan, totaling 640 million yuan [1] - The entire capital increase will be included in the registered capital, raising the registered capital of China Copper International from 600 million yuan to 1.24 billion yuan [1] - The shareholding ratio of both shareholders will remain unchanged after the capital increase [1]