与此同时，美国贸易代表 Jamieson Greer 周一在接受媒体采访时则透露，达成一项难以捉摸的印度贸易 协议将需要两国之间进行更多讨论。他表示，美方当然愿意继续与印度方面会谈，并承认印度"已表达 了开放部分市场的强烈兴趣"。 美方最新表态发生在印度商务部长上周释放乐观信号之后，当时印方表示有希望在特朗普设定的8月1日 最后期限前与美国达成协议。 一、贸易逆差与关税壁垒成美方核心关切 本文来自：华尔街见闻，作者：叶桢，原文标题：《轮到印度了！特朗普威胁：再不达成协议，印度关 税就会是25%》，题图来自：视觉中国 随着美国与欧盟、日本、英国等主要伙伴达成贸易协议，美国总统特朗普将焦点转向印度，发出迄今最 明确的关税威胁，称如果无法达成协议，他准备对印度进口商品征收高达25%的关税。 当地时间周二，当被问及印度是否将面临20%至25%的关税时，特朗普回答说："是的，我认为是这 样"，并补充道，"他们将支付25%"。这一言论迅速加剧了外界对谈判前景的担忧，尽管他同时表示印 度是他的"朋友"。 此前环球时报报道称，印度财政部长西塔拉曼在接受专访时表示，农业和乳制品是印美贸易谈判中的两 大红线，"我们绝不会做任何可 ...

特朗普在4月2日公布所谓"对等关税"措施后，美印两国在4月21日公布了双边贸易协议权限范围（Terms of Reference），特朗普政府一度表示印度可能是最早与美国达成贸易协议的国家之一。但经过5轮双方 会谈，双边贸易谈判至今仍陷于僵持之中。 据报道，印度在保护农业和乳业方面持强硬立场，双方在"去美元化"和购买俄罗斯石油等方面存在矛 盾。 新华财经纽约7月30日电（记者刘亚南）美国总统特朗普29日在搭乘总统专机"空军一号"从英国返程途 中对媒体记者表示，美国可能对印度输美产品征收20%至25%的关税，但尚未就此作出最终决定。 特朗普说，虽然印度是一个好朋友，但印度对从美国进口产品征收的关税几乎高于任何其他国家对美国 产品征收的关税。 美国贸易代表格里尔（ Jamieson Greer）28日表示，美国需要更多时间与印度谈判，以评估印度对美国 出口更多开放市场的意愿。 据报道，印度计划在8月中旬美国代表团访问期间重启范围更广的贸易谈判，目标是在今年9月或10月完 成一项综合性双边协议。 特朗普在25日对媒体表示，美国将向近200个贸易伙伴致信，从而确定美国对这些国家产品的关税税 率。他此前威胁从8月1日开 ...

当地时间周二7月29日，特朗普威胁印度再不达成协议，就将面临25%的关税，这一言论加剧了外界对 谈判前景的担忧。根据此前美国商务部发布的数据来看，2024年美国从印度进口了870亿美元商品，而 印度从美国进口了价值420亿美元的商品，贸易逆差不断扩大。 周二，据媒体援引两名印度政府消息人士透露，印度方面决定在华盛顿8月1日截止日期前暂缓新的贸易 让步。据了解，印度准备应对美国可能征收的20%-25%关税，同时计划在美国代表团8月中旬访问时， 寻求通过全面双边协议解决贸易分歧。目标是在9月或10月前敲定全面双边协议。 截止7月30日上午11点56分，现货黄金现报3328.62美元/盎司，涨幅0.07%。 目前距离特朗普政府设定的8月1日加征"对等"关税的期限越来越近，这期间，美国与欧盟、日本、英国 等主要伙伴先后达成了贸易协议，并与中国方面关税暂停措施展期90天，但与印度之间的谈判目前尚未 达成。据了解，特朗普政府设定的关税最后期限是在华盛顿时间8月1日凌晨12:01。 ...

美联储理事阿德里亚娜·库格勒早些时候表示，美国央行不应在"一段时间内"降息，因为特朗普政府关 税的影响开始在消费者价格中显现。库格勒补充说，限制性货币政策对于保持通胀心理是至关重要的。 随着全球贸易局势的不断变化，加拿大与美国之间的贸易关系再次成为焦点。尽管两国正在努力达成一 项新的贸易协议，以缓解当前的关税争端，但经济学家们警告，加拿大的经济前景依然笼罩在不确定性 的阴云之下。即使短期内能够达成协议，未来的挑战——尤其是《美墨加协定》（USMCA）的审议 ——仍可能对加拿大经济造成深远影响。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，美国和中国将在两周内的最后期限前继续就维持关税休战进行谈 判，特朗普将对任何延期做出最终决定。贝森特淡化了特朗普拒绝延期的任何预期。 中国财政部长蓝佛安周二表示，中国将加大财政支持力度，以提振国内消费，缓解日益加剧的经济逆 风。他强调，中国发展环境的不确定性正在增加，北京将采取更加积极的财政政策来帮助稳定增长。 美国和欧盟周日达成了一项框架贸易协议，对大多数欧洲商品征收15%的关税，并将于8月1日生效。据 彭博称，这笔交易结束了长达数月的僵局。 【黄金期货行情表现】 7月30日，沪金主力 ...

Group 1 - The IMF has raised China's economic growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% [1] - The global economic growth forecast for 2025 has been increased to 3.0%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous estimate [1] - The weakening of the US dollar has provided emerging markets with more policy space to respond to economic challenges [1] Group 2 - The US economic growth forecast has been adjusted to 1.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [2] - The OBBB Act passed in July is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP by approximately 1.5 percentage points by 2026 [2] - Japan's economic growth forecast has been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7% based on actual data from early 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecasts for the next two years, expecting growth rates of 3% and 3.1% respectively, which is an upward adjustment of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous forecast in April [1] Economic Growth Projections - The upward revision in global economic growth expectations is attributed to better-than-expected international trade, lower average effective tariff levels in the U.S., improved global financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in major economies [1] - The most significant upward adjustment in growth forecasts was for China, with the IMF raising its expected growth rate for this year by 0.8 percentage points compared to the April forecast [1] Factors Influencing China's Growth - The adjustment for China's economic growth is primarily due to stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and significant reductions in U.S.-China tariffs [1] - The IMF also raised its growth forecast for China in 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a positive long-term outlook [1] - The strong export performance of China, particularly to regions outside the U.S., has offset the decline in exports to the U.S., contributing to the economic growth [1] - Fiscal policies supporting consumption have also played a role in driving China's economic growth [1] Recommendations for Policy - The IMF suggests that countries should promote clear and transparent trade frameworks to reduce policy-induced uncertainties [1] - Central banks are advised to carefully calibrate monetary policies based on specific national conditions to maintain price and financial stability amid ongoing trade tensions and changing tariffs [1]

Group 1 - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and the High-Level Meeting on Global Governance of AI concluded with significant outcomes, including the proposal of the "Global Governance Action Plan for Artificial Intelligence" [2][3] - The Chinese government emphasized three key suggestions for AI development: focusing on inclusive access, enhancing innovation cooperation, and promoting joint governance to establish a global governance framework for AI [2][3] - The conference showcased over 3,000 cutting-edge technology achievements from more than 800 AI companies across 70 countries and regions, providing a platform for industry collaboration and innovation [3] Group 2 - The Chinese government proposed the establishment of a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, aimed at bridging the digital divide and ensuring the ethical use of AI, with a potential headquarters in Shanghai [3] - The "Global Governance Action Plan for Artificial Intelligence" includes 13 actionable items aimed at promoting safe and controllable AI development while respecting sovereignty and emphasizing international cooperation [2][3]

Core Points - The EU and the US have reached a new trade agreement aimed at avoiding a larger trade war, with the EU committing to stop importing Russian oil and gas in exchange for reduced US tariffs [1][3] - The EU plans to purchase $750 billion worth of energy products from the US over the next three years, diversifying its energy sources and enhancing energy security [1][4] - The agreement includes a 15% tariff on US imports from the EU, but certain categories will have zero tariffs, which has raised concerns among some European officials about the balance of the deal [4][5] Group 1 - The EU will completely abandon imports of Russian oil and gas, opting instead to purchase American energy, which is expected to contribute to European energy security [1] - The EU's energy purchases from the US will include liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear fuel, with a clear goal to eliminate reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2027 [1][3] - The agreement is seen as beneficial primarily to the US, with critics arguing it could lead to deindustrialization in Europe and increased energy costs [3][4] Group 2 - The deal is expected to result in an additional $600 billion investment from the EU into the US, which some European officials view as detrimental to local employment and industry [4][5] - The agreement has faced criticism for being unbalanced, with concerns that it mirrors previous US trade tactics that pressured other nations [4][5] - European leaders have expressed dissatisfaction with the agreement, viewing it as a capitulation to US interests at the expense of European economic strength [5]

Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement between the EU and the US has sparked strong dissatisfaction from the German and French governments, with leaders warning that it will significantly harm the EU economy [1][2]. Group 1: Reactions from German and French Leaders - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that the agreement will cause "considerable damage" to Germany, Europe, and even the US itself [1][3]. - French Prime Minister François Bayrou described the day the agreement was reached as a "dark day," accusing the EU of "yielding and surrendering" [1][3]. - The agreement's 15% tariff rate, while lower than the previously threatened 30%, is still higher than the 10% level announced in April [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the agreement, European stock markets experienced a decline, with the German DAX index falling by 1%, the French CAC 40 index down by 0.4%, and the average decline of 1.8% in automotive stocks within the European Stoxx 600 index [1]. - The euro also depreciated by over 1% against the US dollar [1]. Group 3: Broader Implications - Merz highlighted that the agreement will not only increase inflation rates but will also have a comprehensive impact on transatlantic trade [3]. - The far-right parties in Germany and France view the agreement as a sign of the EU's weakness, with German politician Alice Weidel criticizing it as a "slap in the face" for European consumers and producers [3].

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles is that while Trump's tariff policies have led to some market volatility, the overall impact on the U.S. economy has been limited and within the normal range of economic fluctuations [1][3][4] - Analysts have differing views on the implications of Trump's policies, with some predicting significant economic turmoil while others argue that the changes are part of a normal economic cycle [3][4] - The success of Trump's economic policies hinges more on political factors rather than purely economic ones, as they aim to overturn decades of established trade policies [2][5] Group 2 - The analysis highlights that the S&P 500 index rose by 11.8% from April 1 to July 18, 2025, indicating a recovery and resilience in the market despite initial concerns [4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased from a peak of 4.61% on May 21 to 4.42% by July 18, suggesting a stabilization in the bond market [4] - The articles emphasize that while the tariff policies and a declining dollar may alter trade dynamics, they do not necessarily correlate with a significant downturn in U.S. economic growth [5][13] Group 3 - Trump's administration has seen the dollar experience its fastest decline since 1973, which is viewed as a strategic move to enhance U.S. competitiveness in global markets [6][10] - The combination of tariff measures and dollar depreciation has led to an estimated 25% increase in the average price of imported goods within six months [11][13] - The articles suggest that while the trade geography of the U.S. may change significantly, the overall economic slowdown is driven by different underlying economic forces [13]