新华财经内罗毕8月9日电肯尼亚主流媒体《星报》8日刊发肯尼亚国际关系学者阿德希尔·卡文斯题为 《非洲如何应对特朗普的惩罚性关税》的文章说，美国政府全面加征关税政策近日生效，此类保护主义 政策将导致贸易规模缩减、经济增长放缓、居民消费价格上涨及地缘政治风险上升。美国重启贸易战并 与主要贸易伙伴形成对抗态势，恐将破坏数十年来形成的全球经济一体化格局。文章摘要如下： 美国关税壁垒推高进口商品成本，迫使全球产业链供应链加速重组。美国的惩罚性征税措施，可能阻断 大宗商品、电子产品及纺织品等关键领域贸易通道。 非洲大陆高度依赖出口贸易、外国投资及多边贸易体系，惩罚性关税将加剧其经济脆弱性。在非洲应对 债务危机、气候灾害及新冠疫情后复苏等多重挑战之际，贸易战进一步挤压其发展空间。相较于其他具 备财政缓冲能力的大型经济体，非洲国家缺乏抵御贸易冲击的政策工具。 以肯尼亚为例，特朗普政府对肯输美商品加征关税暂缓期已结束，肯尼亚面临严峻关税冲击，预计将面 临60万个就业岗位流失及逾130亿肯尼亚先令（1美元约合129肯尼亚先令）财政收入损失。 当前，《非洲大陆自由贸易协定》虽稳步推进，但区域内贸易仅占非洲贸易总量的18%，难以抵消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government's imposition of punitive tariffs, highlighting the potential negative effects on global trade, economic growth, and geopolitical stability, particularly for African economies [1]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff barriers are expected to increase the cost of imported goods, leading to a restructuring of global supply chains [1]. - The punitive tariffs may disrupt trade channels in key sectors such as commodities, electronics, and textiles [1]. - African economies, which heavily rely on export trade, foreign investment, and multilateral trade systems, will face increased economic vulnerability due to these tariffs [1]. Group 2: Specific Case of Kenya - Kenya is projected to experience significant adverse effects from the U.S. tariffs, with an estimated loss of 600,000 jobs and over 13 billion Kenyan shillings in fiscal revenue [1]. - The end of the grace period for tariffs on Kenyan goods entering the U.S. poses a severe challenge for the country [1]. Group 3: Regional Trade Dynamics - Despite the ongoing progress of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, intra-African trade accounts for only 18% of total African trade, which is insufficient to mitigate the impacts of global trade disruptions [2]. - The article emphasizes the need for African nations to diversify their trade strategies, reduce dependency on the U.S. market, and strengthen regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area framework [2].

Group 1 - The trend of global economic fragmentation is becoming increasingly significant, driven by trade and technological decoupling, policy divergence, and rising global uncertainty [1][2] - Fragmentation is a relative concept compared to globalization and integration, characterized by weakened economic ties between countries, increased trade barriers, intentional technological decoupling, and restrictions on factor mobility [2][3] - The past 15 years have shown a continuous process of fragmentation, with recent trends indicating a clear decoupling in global trade structures, particularly highlighted by the Russia-Europe divide following the Ukraine conflict [2][3] Group 2 - The rise of populism and extremism has significantly impacted global fragmentation, with many countries believing that privatization, free markets, and trade liberalization are optimal solutions, while the era of super globalization is considered over [3] - The trade conflict between the US and China is a key driver accelerating global fragmentation, with ongoing complaints from the US regarding trade barriers, intellectual property protection, and market access issues [3] - Geopolitical factors have led to fragmentation between the US and China, with a shift in focus from economic efficiency to economic security, which may have substantial implications for future development [3] Group 3 - There is a need to establish a strong awareness of a shared human destiny and confidence in the inevitability of global economic integration and cooperation in industrial division [4] - Recommendations include encouraging technological innovation and cooperation, maintaining overall financial market stability, promoting educational reform, and enhancing policy coordination and communication [4] - A dual approach is suggested to advance globalization while addressing the challenges posed by fragmentation [4]

Group 1 - The concept of fragmentation is defined as the phenomenon where global trade, investment, and technology exchanges become increasingly divided into relatively independent economic groups and regions due to cognitive biases, geopolitical factors, populism, and trade protectionism [2] - Trade protectionism and populism stem from cognitive biases, such as the belief that trade surpluses are exploitative and that tariffs primarily burden exporting countries rather than importing ones [2] - The recent agreement between the US and China to suspend most mutual tariffs highlights the importance of cooperation in the face of fragmentation [2] Group 2 - Constructive global cooperation is essential in addressing common challenges such as economic recession, climate change, and technological transformation [3] - There is a need to correct cognitive biases and emphasize the importance of economic trade balance and the relationship between trade deficits and the status of sovereign currencies as world currencies [3] - Encouraging technological innovation and cooperation, strengthening international capital ties, and improving policy coordination and transparency are crucial steps to counter fragmentation [3] Group 3 - The approach to dealing with conflicts should involve a firm commitment to beliefs, principles, and actions, emphasizing that globalization is an unstoppable trend [4] - The notion of "everyone's well-being is the true well-being" should guide efforts to address the issues of fragmentation [4]

欧洲央行管委马赫鲁夫：全球经济一体化目前已陷入停滞，甚至出现倒退；过去几周，变化的速度和规 模都在加快。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of non-discrimination and free trade principles to maintain an open and cooperative international environment, especially in light of rising trade protectionism that poses risks to global poverty reduction and development efforts [1] Group 1: Economic Contributions and Policies - China has maintained a contribution rate of approximately 30% to global economic growth in recent years [1] - The Chinese government plans to adopt more proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve its annual growth targets amidst a complex external environment [1] - China has implemented zero-tariff treatment for products from all least developed countries with which it has established diplomatic relations, demonstrating its commitment to reform and opening up [1] Group 2: International Cooperation - The Chinese government calls on international organizations like the World Bank to advocate for non-discrimination and free trade principles [1] - China expresses willingness to further open its market to share its vast market potential with the world, aiming for mutual benefits and win-win outcomes [1]