每经编辑｜杜宇 当地时间5月8日，美股三大指数集体收涨。纳指涨1.07%，道指涨0.62%，标普500指数涨0.58%。 大型科技股普涨，英特尔涨超3%，亚马逊、谷歌、微软涨超1%，英伟达、Meta小幅上涨；奈飞跌约1%。ARM跌超6%，公司业绩指引逊于预期。诺瓦瓦 克斯医药涨约12%，公司发布高于预期的2025财年销售指导。QBTS涨超51%，创2023年5月份以来最佳单日表现，并领跑一众量子计算概念股。 特斯拉涨3.11%，报284.82美元，市值9173.9亿美元，市值一夜增加277亿美元（约合人民币2004亿元人民币）。 Pinterest美股盘后涨超11%。公司一季度营收8.55亿美元，分析师预期8.463亿美元。公司预计二季度营收9.6亿美元~9.8亿美元，分析师预期9.637亿美元。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.97%。 热门中概股多数上涨。理想汽车、蔚来涨逾3%，小鹏汽车、阿里巴巴涨超2%，富途控股、向上融科涨近2%。 当天晚些时候，英国政府发布官方声明，称英国汽车出口至美国的关税将从27.5%降至10%，钢铁和铝关税从25%降至零。这一关税优惠将适用于10万辆 英国汽车，几乎覆盖去年英国对美 ...

但美国与欧盟的关税谈判似乎进展得不太顺利。当地时间5月8日，欧盟委员会发布消息称，将向世贸组织投诉 美国关税，并计划对950亿欧元（约合1080亿美元）的美国进口产品采取潜在反制措施，以应对美国关税。 特朗普宣布了 5月8日晚间，据央视新闻客户端，当地时间8日，英国和美国已经就关税贸易协议条款达成一致。英国政府同 意进口美国食品和农业产品方面作出让步，以换取美方降低对英国汽车出口的关税。 英美达成一致！ 今日晚间，据央视新闻客户端，英国和美国已经就关税贸易协议条款达成一致。据最新消息，美国将对英国制 造的汽车关税降至10%，美英协议下，将把牛肉关税降至接近零的水平。 随后，美国总统特朗普表示，与英国达成重大协议，将降低美国商品的非关税壁垒，最终细节将在未来数周内 拟定。受此影响，美股三大指数全线拉升，纳指涨超1%。英国股市则维持弱势震荡，阿斯顿马丁伦敦股价逆 势大涨超10%，领跑欧洲一众汽车制造概念股。 据《每日电讯报》，在贸易协议中，美国将对英国制造的汽车关税降至10%，英国汽车制造商将获得10万辆车 的出口配额，并享受较低的关税。此外，美英协议下，将把牛肉关税降至"接近零"。 随后，美国总统特朗普在椭圆形 ...

Group 1: Economic Downside Risks - The U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 showed an unexpected decline with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of -0.3%, against an expectation of -0.2% and a previous value of +2.4%[2] - Tariffs are identified as the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturn, with the U.S. accounting for 16% of global imports and 1/3 of global final consumption goods imports[3] - If U.S. import growth declines by more than 5% this year, it could significantly pressure the global economy, as historical data shows only three instances in the past 30 years where import growth fell below -5% during recession periods[4] Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect in the U.S. is highly sensitive to stock market performance; a 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq in Q1 2025 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%[5] - If the Nasdaq continues to decline or remains flat, consumer resilience may be severely impacted, with expectations for future stock and housing prices weakening[6] - In 2025, the growth rate of residents' salary income is expected to weaken to approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in 2024, indicating a challenging income environment for consumers[6] Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market faces multiple risks, including tight liquidity in the money market and high leverage ratios, which could amplify market volatility and impact economic growth[8] - The potential for further financial market fluctuations exists, particularly in the context of significant political uncertainties such as tariffs[8] Group 4: Potential Upside Risks - Private investment may present a potential upside risk, as real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years following the Fed's interest rate cuts[9] - Capital expenditures from major U.S. tech companies are projected to increase, with a 19% upward revision for 2025 compared to earlier forecasts, indicating continued investment in the AI sector[9]

核心要点 1. 投资策略调整：因估值因素，去年四季度开始减持超配股票与信贷，今年关税问题升温 后进一步降低风险。当前股票满仓但不超配，投资注重全球布局，看好金融板块，对新兴市 场持谨慎开放态度。 2. 经济形势判断：虽关税致不确定性增加，担忧滞胀和衰退，但经济衰退不是大概率事件。 美国经济优势犹存，科技和金融是经济韧性的关键支撑；欧洲市场今年表现好，是估值重新 定价，未来发展取决于财政等政策实施效果。 3. 科技行业展望：科技股曾因盈利、创新和资本支出表现好，估值受认可。目前资本支出 受关税影响，但企业核心增长因素仍在，只是发展节奏或因经济环境调整。 4. 新兴市场机遇：今年新兴市场因美国进口前置受益，表现优于美国，但长期看仍落后。 新兴市场债务是风险分散工具，收益率有吸引力，投资需谨慎选择，关注特定国家和企业机 会。 5. 美联储政策影响：美联储目前维持利率不变，下半年政策走向受关税、通胀和就业等因 素影响。市场期望降息，若其他央行降息而美联储维持，利差变化会影响资金流动和市场走 势。 6. 美元走势分析：美元近期承压，过去十年助力投资，其作为储备货币地位稳固，虽有波 动但难以被替代。近期走势受外资流动影响 ...

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5%, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity into the market [1] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1%, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate decreasing from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - A structural monetary policy tool rate was reduced by 0.25%, and the personal housing provident fund loan rate was also cut by 0.25% [1] - The central bank will establish a 500 billion yuan re-lending facility to support consumption and elderly care, and increase the re-lending quota for technological innovation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [1][2] Trade Relations - High-level economic talks between China and the U.S. are scheduled in Switzerland, with discussions expected to focus on tariff adjustments and trade relations [3] - The U.S. has shown interest in negotiating tariff measures, which could ease trade tensions and provide a buffer for the global economy [4] Fund Management - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released an action plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, including linking management fees to fund performance [5] - The plan aims to improve the reputation of the public fund industry and accelerate the exit of underperforming funds, enhancing overall profitability [6] Logistics Industry - China's logistics industry prosperity index for April was reported at 51.1%, indicating continued expansion despite a slight month-over-month decline [7] - The index reflects a mixed performance across regions, with the western region showing significant recovery while the eastern and central regions experienced a slowdown [8] Mobile Gaming Market - In April, 33 Chinese companies entered the global mobile game revenue top 100, collectively generating $2 billion, accounting for 38.4% of the market [9] - Tencent's flagship game "Honor of Kings" saw a 71% revenue increase, reclaiming the top position in global mobile game revenue [10] Skechers Acquisition - Skechers announced an agreement to be acquired by 3G Capital for approximately $9.4 billion, with the deal expected to close in the third quarter [11] - The acquisition may provide financial support to Skechers amid declining sales in China and rising costs due to trade policies [12] Currency and Trade Dynamics - A potential "avalanche" sell-off of up to $2.5 trillion in U.S. dollars is anticipated as Asian countries reduce their dollar reserves amid escalating trade tensions [13] - The shift in currency dynamics may lead to significant changes in global trade relationships and impact the demand for U.S. dollars [14]

Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity[2] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to guide the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) downwards, aiming to reduce financing costs for the real economy[5] - The PBOC increased the quota for technology innovation re-loans from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, and lowered the interest rate from 1.75% to 1.5%[18] Real Estate Sector Support - The personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the first home rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%, saving residents over 20 billion yuan annually in interest payments[15] - Policies focus on stimulating demand and alleviating risks in the real estate sector, promoting a shift towards a new development model[17] Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The PBOC increased the quota for re-loans supporting agriculture and small enterprises by 300 billion yuan, bringing the total to 3 trillion yuan[23] - A comprehensive policy package is being developed to support financing for small and private enterprises, enhancing their operational vitality[23] Capital Market Support Policies - The PBOC will optimize two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, merging a total quota of 800 billion yuan for securities and stock repurchase[30] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is revising regulations to support mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the role of capital markets in resource allocation[40] A-Share Market Outlook - As of May 7, the A-share index has increased by 0.50% year-to-date, with the overall market showing resilience despite external pressures[47] - The A-share index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 18.78, indicating it is at a historical median level, while the price-to-book ratio is at 1.53, suggesting relatively low valuations compared to global markets[47] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include uncertainty regarding domestic policy effectiveness, geopolitical disturbances, and market sentiment instability[54]

（文章来源：证券时报网） 灿芯股 科创板新股申购中签率情况 | 简称 | 申购代 | 发行日期 | 发行 | 发行总量（万 | 网上发行量（万 | 网上发行最终中签率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 码 | | 价 | 股） | 股） | （%） | | 汉邦科 技 | 787755 | 2025.05.07 | 22.77 | 2200.00 | 704.00 | 0.03001029 | | 胜科纳 米 | 787757 | 2025.03.14 | 9.08 | 4033.11 | 1036.05 | 0.03181202 | | 海博思 创 | 787411 | 2025.01.16 | 19.38 | 4443.25 | 1512.60 | 0.0329001 | | 兴福电 子 | 787545 | 2025.01.13 | 11.68 | 10000.00 | 2828.85 | 0.03877818 | | 思看科 技 | 787583 | 2025.01.06 | 33.46 | 1700.00 | 544.00 | 0.0 ...

5月7日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，前期中国人民银行会同有关部门，积极准备推出债券市场"科技板"，支持 金融机构、科技型企业、股权投资机构这三类市场主体发行科技创新债券。 同时，针对科技型企业、股 权投资机构的特点，对科技创新债券的发行交易、信息披露、信用评级等制度安排进行了完善，健全了与 科技创新融资特点相适应的配套规则体系。相关政策和准备工作已经基本就绪。目前看，市场各方响应非 常积极，各类型金融机构、科技型企业、股权投资机构积极与中国人民银行、证监会沟通，对接发行科技 创新债券的意愿。初步统计，目前有近100家市场机构计划发行超过3000亿元的科技创新债券，预计后续 还会有更多机构参与。 分析人士指出，债券"科技板"的提出体现了我国对科技创新的金融支持力度，也为市场注入新活力，有助 于引导债市资金以更加高效、便捷、低成本的方式投向科技创新领域，推动科技与金融深度融合，助力实 体经济高质量发展。 科创债发行持续火热 2025年，以DeepSeek为代表的AI技术突破引发市场对科技创新的高度关注，而债券市场对科技企业的支 持 ...

Group 1 - The announcement of tariffs by President Trump on April 2 has led to a significant decline in merger and acquisition (M&A) activities, with April's global M&A contracts dropping to the lowest level in over 20 years, totaling 2,330 deals, which is 34% lower than the historical monthly average [1] - The total value of global M&A activities fell to $233 billion in April, a 54% decrease from March and 20% lower than the average for the past 20 years [4] - In the U.S., only 555 deals were completed in April, marking the lowest level since May 2009 [1][4] Group 2 - Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies has led investment bankers to advise clients to hold off on M&A and IPOs until there is more clarity [4] - Despite the overall decline, significant transactions like Global Payments' $24.25 billion acquisition of a credit card processing company provided some support to the struggling market [4] - The technology sector accounted for nearly 40% of the $600 billion in deals signed in the U.S. this year, with a focus on intellectual property rather than physical goods affected by tariffs [7] Group 3 - Different industries are experiencing varying impacts from the tariffs, with sectors like telecommunications, media, and utilities being less affected, while industrials and healthcare face greater challenges [7] - Investment banks are advising clients to thoroughly understand the additional risks associated with target companies' business models due to the current volatility in the market [7]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced reforms to enhance the IPO support mechanism for unprofitable tech companies, improving the inclusivity of the listing process and refining information disclosure rules [1] - In the A-share market, over half of the 5,403 listed companies reported positive revenue growth, with 55% of new listings achieving both revenue and net profit increases, and three-quarters of companies being profitable [1] - Following the introduction of the new regulations, the number of IPO projects under review in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets initially surged but has since decreased as low-quality projects were filtered out, with 22 companies confirmed to be delisted this year [1] Group 2 - The market is currently focused on whether it can surpass the resistance level of 3,319 points, with significant support at 3,328 points from the 60-day and half-year moving averages [3] - A strong upward trend was observed, with the market needing a substantial bullish candle to reverse the recent downtrend, indicating a return of risk appetite among investors [3] Group 3 - Technology stocks have shown significant strength, particularly in sectors like nuclear fusion and computing power, with micro-cap stocks and the CSI 2000 index outperforming larger indices [5] - Institutional investors are optimistic about the tech growth style due to reduced overcrowding in the sector and a weakening of disruptive factors, shifting focus back to long-term industry trends [5] Group 4 - The market experienced a broad-based rally with nearly 5,000 stocks rising, indicating a positive start to May compared to April [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3,306.56 trend line, suggesting the beginning of a new upward wave, with any subsequent adjustments viewed as buying opportunities [7] - The first trading day after the holiday saw a significant recovery, with 4,700 stocks rising and nearly 100 hitting the daily limit up, while only one stock faced a limit down [7]