以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪缓和 铝价高位震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 原材料： 冯艳成 基本面来看,截至 1 月 21 日，SMM 进口铝土矿指数报 65.85 美元/吨， 较上一交易日下跌 0.01 美元/吨；SMM 几内亚 FOB ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests focusing on three key stock selection criteria in the electrolytic aluminum industry: companies with high capacity-to-market value ratios and significant earnings elasticity from rising aluminum prices, those with strong overseas expansion capabilities, and prioritizing companies with high alumina self-sufficiency rates amid potential production shutdowns and policy changes [1] Group 1: Stock Selection Criteria - Companies with high capacity-to-market value ratios will benefit more from rising aluminum prices [1] - Firms with overseas expansion capabilities are expected to show stronger growth [1] - Companies with high alumina self-sufficiency rates are preferred, especially as alumina prices have reached a low point [1] Group 2: Company Recommendations - China Hongqiao (01378) is rated "outperform" with a target price raised from 29.29 HKD to 42.79 HKD [1] - Other recommended stocks include Nanshan Aluminum International H shares (02610, target price 77.76 HKD), Nanshan Aluminum A shares (600219.SH, target price 7.25 RMB), China Aluminum (02600, target price 17.04 HKD), Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ, target price 22.67 RMB), and Huatong Cable, all rated "outperform" [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - Chinese aluminum companies are accelerating their overseas expansion due to domestic bauxite shortages and production capacity limits since 2017 [2] - Companies like China Hongqiao are establishing a presence in low-cost regions, particularly in Indonesia [2] - Guinea's bauxite mining is becoming increasingly active, with projections of 170 million tons by 2025, and China Hongqiao expected to be the largest producer in Guinea [2] Group 4: Price and Cost Dynamics - The aluminum price increase benefits all electrolytic aluminum companies, with those having a high capacity-to-market value ratio showing greater valuation elasticity [3] - Companies with alumina self-sufficiency above 100% will see increased profits from alumina sales as prices rise [3] - Companies with high self-generated electricity ratios, like China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum, will benefit more from falling coal prices compared to those with lower ratios [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - The industry anticipates a significant revaluation opportunity due to rising aluminum prices and expanding profit margins per ton of aluminum [5] - The supply-demand gap in electrolytic aluminum is expected to widen, supported by favorable fiscal and monetary policies globally [5] - The average valuation for electrolytic aluminum companies is projected to remain around 10 times, indicating substantial upward revaluation potential [5]

Core Viewpoint - The latest report from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) indicates a global surplus of primary aluminum in November 2025, while there was a significant shortage in the earlier months of the same year [1] Group 1: Global Aluminum Production and Consumption - In November 2025, global primary aluminum production is projected to be 6.0226 million tons, with consumption at 5.8176 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 204,900 tons [1] - From January to November 2025, global primary aluminum production reached 66.7204 million tons, while consumption was 68.248 million tons, leading to a shortage of 152,760 tons [1] Group 2: Bauxite and Alumina Production - In November 2025, global bauxite production is expected to be 35.3332 million tons, and alumina production is projected at 12.85 million tons [1] - For the period from January to November 2025, global bauxite production totaled 390.0838 million tons, with alumina production at 139.8518 million tons [1] Group 3: Recycled Aluminum Production - The production of recycled aluminum in November 2025 is estimated to be 220.42 thousand tons [1] - From January to November 2025, the total production of recycled aluminum is reported to be 2,421.44 thousand tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum International's stock has dropped over 5%, currently trading at 65.2 HKD, following the announcement of a share placement [1] Group 1: Share Placement Details - Nanshan Aluminum International announced a placement of 31 million shares, representing approximately 5% of the enlarged share capital [1] - The placement price is set at 64.5 HKD per share, which is a discount of about 6.39% compared to the closing price of 68.9 HKD on January 21 [1] - If fully subscribed, the gross proceeds from the placement are expected to be approximately 1.9995 billion HKD, with net proceeds around 1.9868 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - Approximately 90% of the net proceeds will be allocated to potential electrolytic aluminum and related raw materials, as well as auxiliary businesses [1] - The remaining 10% of the proceeds will be used for general working capital [1]

南山铝业在披露折价配股后，股价下跌6.3%，至64.55港元。 ...

Group 1 - Nanshan Aluminum International's stock fell over 5%, specifically by 5.37%, trading at 65.2 HKD with a transaction volume of 2.039 billion HKD [1] - The company announced a placement of 31 million shares, representing approximately 5% of the enlarged share capital, at a price of 64.5 HKD per share, which is a discount of about 6.39% compared to the closing price of 68.9 HKD on January 21 [1] - If the subscription is fully placed, the total amount expected from the subscription is approximately 1.9995 billion HKD, with a net amount of about 1.9868 billion HKD, of which around 90% will be used for potential electrolytic aluminum and related raw materials and auxiliary businesses, while 10% will be allocated for general working capital [1]

Group 1: Innovation Industry (02788.HK) - The company focuses on low-cost green electricity aluminum production, with overseas projects supporting high capacity growth [9][10] - Established 6*330MW coal-fired self-supplied power units and 788,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity in Inner Mongolia [10] - The company is set to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in November 2025, with a projected net profit growth of 51%/63%/34% from 2025 to 2027 [11] Group 2: Angel Yeast (600298.SH) - The company is the leading yeast producer in China and the second largest globally, with a fermentation capacity of 400,000 tons by 2024 [12][13] - It has a market share of 55% in China, benefiting from a global oligopoly structure in the yeast industry [12] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by declining raw material costs and expanding overseas operations, with projected net profits of 15.8/19.7/23.1 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [15] Group 3: Agricultural Industry - The new import beef policy will reduce the volume but increase prices, with a projected 20% decrease in beef imports in 2026 compared to 2024 [27][28] - Global beef prices are entering an upward cycle due to supply reductions in major producing regions, with a 60% increase from the bottom by December 2025 [28][29] - The domestic beef market is expected to see price increases driven by reduced supply and increased demand, with a significant tightening of supply anticipated from 2026 to 2028 [29][30] Group 4: Computer Industry - The AI industry is expected to see continued growth in computing power, with major companies like Microsoft and Google increasing capital expenditures significantly [35][36] - The demand for AI infrastructure is driving upgrades in optical modules and PCBs, with a shift towards liquid cooling technology due to rising power density [36][37] - The AI cycle is characterized by sustained penetration driven by technological iterations, differing from previous cycles that experienced peaks and declines [37]

本文源自：金融界AI电报 南山铝业国际早间在港交所公告，于2026年1月22日，公司、卖方及配售代理订立配售及认购协议，据 此，卖方同意委任配售代理为配售代理，而配售代理同意竭力促使买方按配售价购买出售股份；及卖方 已有条件同意认购，而本公司已有条件同意按认购价根据一般授权向卖方配发及发行认购股份。认购事 项的所得款项净额预期约为19.8676亿港元。90%将用于集团的潜在电解铝及相关原材料以及辅助业 务，10%将用于集团的一般营运资金。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminium International (02610) has announced a placement and subscription agreement involving the sale of 31 million shares at a price of HKD 64.50 per share, representing a discount of approximately 6.39% from the closing price on January 21 [1] Group 1: Share Placement Details - The seller, Nanshan Aluminium Investment Holding Limited, has appointed a placement agent to facilitate the sale of shares [1] - The total number of shares being sold represents about 5.26% of the total issued shares as of the announcement date [1] - If the subscription is fully placed, the enlarged total number of issued shares will be approximately 5.00% [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - The expected gross proceeds from the subscription are approximately HKD 1.9995 billion, with net proceeds estimated at HKD 1.9868 billion [1] - The net proceeds will be allocated as follows: 90% for potential electrolytic aluminum and related raw materials and auxiliary businesses, and 10% for general working capital [1]

假设认购股份获悉数配售，认购事项所得款项总额和所得款项净额预期分别约为19.995亿港元和19.868 亿港元。认购事项所得款项净额将拟以下列方式动用：90%将用于集团的潜在电解铝及相关塬材料以及 辅助业务;及10%将用于集团的一般营运资金。 南山铝业（600219）国际(02610)发布公告，于2026年1月22日，公司、卖方(Nanshan Aluminium Investment Holding Limited，一名控股股东)及配售代理订立配售及认购协议，据此，(a)卖方同意委任配 售代理为配售代理，而配售代理同意竭力促使买方按配售价(即每股64.50港元)购买出售股份(即3100万 股股份);(b)卖方已有条件同意认购，而公司已有条件同意按认购价(相等于配售价)根据一般授权向卖方 配发及发行认购股份(即3100万股股份，数目与出售股份相同)。 假设出售股份获悉数配售，出售股份数目占于本公告日期已发行股份总数约5.26%;及认购事项完成后经 扩大的已发行股份总数约5.00%。配售价为每股出售股份64.50港元，较1月21日收市价每股68.90港元折 让约6.39%。 ...