Core Insights - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) has launched a pricing section for aluminum products on its comprehensive business platform, specifically for the Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center [1][2] - Guangxi is a significant production base for aluminum in China, with a complete industrial chain from bauxite to recycled aluminum [1] - The Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center aims to enhance trading channels and risk management for local aluminum enterprises [2] Group 1 - The initial quoted products include alumina, aluminum ingots, aluminum rods, and casting aluminum alloys, with designated delivery warehouses across Guangxi and Guangdong [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center has achieved a total transaction volume of 7.51 million tons and has 857 registered users [1] - The trading center facilitates the connection between the regional spot market and SHFE's aluminum futures market, allowing enterprises to reference futures prices for better pricing strategies [2] Group 2 - The SHFE has already launched 20 types of standard warehouse receipt trading and is focused on integrating futures and spot markets to support high-quality economic development [2] - The collaboration between SHFE and the Guangxi Aluminum Trading Center is expected to enhance the financial services available to the aluminum industry [2]

11月24日，国内绿色电解铝及氧化铝生产商创新实业集团有限公司（以下简称"创新实业"，股票代码为 02788.HK）成功于香港联交所主板挂牌上市。此次创新实业全球发售以每股10.99港元定价发行，发行 总规模约为7.07亿美元（绿鞋前），本次发行另设置15%超额配股权，若超额配售权完全行使，发行总 规模约为8.13亿美元，为2025年规模最大的铝企业港股IPO。华泰国际于本次发行中担任联席保荐人、 整体协调人、联席全球协调人、联席账簿管理人及联席牵头经办人。 创新实业是一家聚焦铝产业链上游高附加值环节的铝产业集团，主要从事电解铝及氧化铝等产品的生产 和销售。本次上市是创新实业在全球及中国电解铝行业供需保持"紧平衡"的趋势下，践行国际化战略的 重要一步，同时也让中国优质铝企进一步走进国际投资者的视野。 （本文不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操作，风险自担。） ...

（原标题：港股迎来电解铝龙头，行业高景气度催化创新实业(02788)成长预期） 今年以来，港股IPO市场持续活跃。在政策红利释放与流动性改善的双重推动下，前10个月香港共迎来80宗IPO，募集资金总额超过260亿美元， IPO募资规模位居全球首位。 11月24日，创新实业(02788)正式登陆港交所，本次公司发行价为每股10.99港元，最高募资额约为55亿港元，引入包括高瓴、中国宏桥、泰康人 寿、景林、欧力士、中国太保、广发基金、富国基金等在内的17名知名基石投资者，合计认购金额约3.51亿美元，显示出机构投资者对其基本面 的高度认可。 券商数据显示，此前创新实业在公开发售阶段便受到资金热烈追捧，IPO国际配售获40余倍认购，吸引超300家全球顶级机构踊跃下单，包括主权 基金、顶级国际长线、中资长线等多家意见领袖机构强势入驻;香港公开发售获近450倍超额认购，为今年罕见的高热度新股，市场参与度火爆。 按当前募资规模测算，创新实业本次发行募资额有望跻身年度前十，以不含A+H股计，发行募资额有望进入今年前三。 公司暗盘交易表现同样亮眼，两大交易场辉立和富途均大幅上涨，其中辉立暗盘收涨30.57%，收报14.35港 ...

股市里最残酷的刑具，不是暴跌，而是阴跌。 一只股票可以连跌10年，股价从62元跌到1.62元，跌幅91.5%；另一只股票跌了18年，36万股东守着11倍市盈率的"廉价筹码"，却等不来解套之日。 这些个股的K线图像一道斜坡，每次反弹都是诱多，每次抄底都是陷阱。 2025年的A股市场，仍有超过70只股票连续下跌超5年，涉及股东人数近百万人。 从62元到1.62元的财富蒸发 2015年6月，A股站上5178点高峰时，一家主营建筑施?的公司股价触及62元。 十年后，这家公司更名为"智能"，转型纺织机械设备制造，股价却只剩2.6元，跌幅超95%。 期间，公司净利润从转型初期的8亿元峰值跌至亏损，2024年三季报再亏2.389亿元，同比亏损扩大101%。 股价在3元以下震荡4年，最低触及1.20元，9万股东人均浮亏超80%。 类似的案例遍布市场：重庆钢铁上市15年，股价从10.09元跌至1.52元，18万股东被困；中国铝业下跌18年，从60.10元跌至9.9元，最大跌幅96%；华丽家族 因石墨烯概念炒作后连续回调十年，股价从30.90元跌至3.16元。 这些股票的共性在于，下跌途中从不缺少抄底者。 京东方A拥有125.7 ...

、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿价小幅下跌， 氧化铝供应少量修复 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 11 23 | 月 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★ 几内亚矿价小幅下跌，氧化铝供应少量修复 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格暂稳，山西矿 58/5 的含税报价 700 元/ 吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 658 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到 厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。山西、河南的雨季过去，部分此前 因下雨停产的矿山已经恢复，但增量较为有限。采暖季深入，北 方山西及河南地区对非煤矿山开采管控亦愈发严格，尤其严查矿 山超产行为。山西、河南的矿山整顿行动仍然在继续，环保和安 全检查也并未放松。国产矿供应短时难以改善，市场实际流通的 矿石量极为有限。进口方面，几内亚矿报价区间为 70-71 美元/ 干吨，相比于上周下降 1 美元/干吨，价格有所松动。雨季后几 内亚矿的发货量处在恢复之中，12 月开始签订 2025 年长单和确 定一季度矿石价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Global equity market corrections and geopolitical tensions have made the market cautious, leading to significant short - and long - position reductions in Shanghai aluminum and a decline in aluminum prices. However, the relatively low global visible aluminum ingot inventory and supply disruption expectations still strongly support aluminum prices. Despite the downstream moving into the off - season, with price corrections, the domestic inventory accumulation pressure is expected to be low, and aluminum prices may strengthen further after oscillatory adjustments. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to be 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,750 - 2,850 US dollars/ton [11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the monthly industry operating rate remaining stable. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in October increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month. The domestic aluminum water ratio rebounded by 1.4% month - on - month [11]. - Inventory & Spot: As of Thursday, the aluminum ingot inventory was 613,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last Thursday; the bonded area inventory was 62,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 152,000 tons, up 2,000 tons from last Thursday; the LME global aluminum inventory was 548,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last week. The domestic East China aluminum ingot spot basis first declined and then rose, and the LME market Cash/3M discount widened to $30.9/ton [11]. - Import & Export: In October 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 248,000 tons, up 1.8% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to October were 2.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.9%. In October, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6%. Recently, the spot import loss of Shanghai aluminum has narrowed [11]. - Demand: According to SMM research, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises remained stable at 62% this week, showing off - season characteristics. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained stable, the aluminum cable operating rate rebounded slightly supported by power grid orders, while the operating rates of aluminum plates, strips, profiles, and foils were under pressure, with the overall operating rate being stable but weak [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai aluminum fell 2.3% to 21,340 yuan/ton this week, and LME aluminum fell 1.7% to $2,808/ton. The spread between the first and third - month contracts of Shanghai aluminum narrowed compared with last week [19][21]. - Spot: The East China spot premium rebounded, while the discounts in South China and Central China narrowed. The LME aluminum Cash/3M discount widened [32][38]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Profit: The primary aluminum smelting profit decreased compared with last week but remained at a historical high [43]. - Inventory: Aluminum ingot inventory was 613,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last Thursday; bonded area inventory was 62,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last week; aluminum rod inventory was 152,000 tons, up 2,000 tons from last Thursday; LME global aluminum inventory was 548,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last week and at a low level in the same period of previous years [48][51][57]. 4. Cost Side - Bauxite: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices remained stable [69]. - Alumina: The domestic alumina price decreased by 11 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the import price decreased by $1/ton [72]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: The anode price and thermal coal price remained flat compared with last week [76]. 5. Supply Side - Alumina: In October, the domestic alumina output was 7.785 million tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from September and a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [82]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the monthly industry operating rate remaining stable. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in October increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month. The domestic aluminum water ratio rebounded by 1.4% in October and is expected to decline slightly in November. The electrolytic aluminum output of each province in October increased compared with September [85][88][93]. 6. Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: In October, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum plates, strips, and foils declined month - on - month; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased month - on - month, while the aluminum rod operating rate declined month - on - month; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [104][107][110]. - Terminal Demand: In November 2025, the production schedules of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all declined compared with the actual production in the same period last year. In October, real estate data remained weak, automobile production and sales were acceptable, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules was expected to decline slightly [114]. 7. Import and Export - Primary Aluminum: In October 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 248,000 tons, up 1.8% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to October were 2.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.9%. This week, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened. In October, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., with the proportion of imports from Russia dropping to 63% [119][123]. - Unwrought Aluminum and Aluminum Products: In October 2025, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6% [128]. - Recycled Aluminum: In October 2025, the recycled aluminum imports were 158,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative imports from January to October were 1.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [128]. - Bauxite: In October 2025, China's bauxite imports were 13.766 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 71.8%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to October were 170.959 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.1% [131]. - Alumina: In October 2025, China exported 176,000 tons of alumina, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to October were 2.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.7% [131].

Core Insights - The aluminum market is undergoing a fundamental restructuring due to the acceleration of global energy transition, with aluminum becoming a strategic resource, leading to a new price paradigm characterized by high prices and limited supply [1][2][3] Global Aluminum Supply Chain Restructuring - Resource nationalism and capacity transfer are reshaping the global aluminum supply chain, with Guinea holding 26% of global bauxite reserves and Australia 12%, while China only holds 2% [1][2] - The concentration of bauxite resources leads to a significant disparity in production, with Guinea accounting for 29% of global output [2] - By 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum capacity is nearing its ceiling at 4,445 million tons, while overseas projects are expected to add over 1 million tons of capacity from 2026 to 2028 [3][4] Global Aluminum Consumption Structure Analysis - Traditional sectors like construction are declining, while new sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs) and photovoltaics are experiencing explosive growth, with EV aluminum consumption increasing by 30% [5][6] - The average aluminum usage in pure electric vehicles is 283 kg per vehicle, significantly higher than traditional vehicles [6] - By 2040, global aluminum demand is projected to reach 163.7 million tons, a 67.3% increase from 2018 levels [7] Trade Policies and Market Dynamics - The U.S. has significantly increased aluminum import tariffs to 50%, leading to a sharp decline in imports, particularly from Canada, which previously supplied 58% of U.S. aluminum [8][9] - China is adapting by increasing exports through third countries to circumvent tariffs, with exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products rising by 19.7% year-on-year [10] Price Trends and Future Predictions - Aluminum prices have shown a strong upward trend, with LME prices reaching $2,880 per ton, driven by tight supply and robust demand from sectors like EVs and solar energy [11][12] - Various institutions predict continued price increases, with estimates for 2025 ranging from $2,850 to $3,500 per ton, reflecting a tightening market [12][13] Future Trends and Strategic Recommendations - The aluminum industry is shifting towards a green transition, with a focus on recycled aluminum, which has a recovery rate of over 95% and significantly lower production emissions [14][15] - Companies are encouraged to invest in green technologies and diversify markets to mitigate risks associated with trade barriers and supply chain vulnerabilities [16]

11月21日晚间，电解铝企业创新实业迎来暗盘阶段，该公司即将在11月24日正式登陆港股市场。 富途牛牛显示，该股在暗盘阶段上涨26.02%，这在近期频频破发的港股新股市场上颇为难得。 | 报价 评论 资讯 融资 分析 公司 | | | --- | --- | | 02788 创新实业 | | | 暗盘已收盘 11/21 18:29:57 | | | 13.850↑ - 最高 - 15.000 今 开 - 10.800 | | | 最 低 9.960 昨 收 +2.860 +26.02% | 10.990 | | 成交额 2.75亿 市盈率TTM 13.15 总市值 ○ 277.00亿 | | | 成交量 2059.50万股 市盈率(静) 12.36 总股本 | 20.00亿 | | 换手率 1.03% 市盈率(动) -- 流通值 ① 277.00亿 | | | 52周最高 15.000 市净率 1 | 20.00亿 | | 52周景低 9.960 委 比 92.88% 振 幅 7 | 45.86% | | 历史最高 15.000 量 比 -- 股息率TM -- | | | 9.960 股息TTM -- 股息率 ...

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry is set to officially list on the Hong Kong stock market on November 24, following a successful dark market phase where its stock price increased by 26.02% [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Innovation Industry is the twelfth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China and focuses on the upstream aluminum industry, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [7][8]. - The company is controlled by Cui Lixin, who also controls the A-share company Innovation New Materials [4][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum production is highly energy-intensive, and Innovation Industry benefits from self-generated electricity and low power costs due to abundant resources in Inner Mongolia [8][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue growth has been consistent, with total revenue increasing from RMB 134.90 billion in 2022 to RMB 138.15 billion in 2023, and projected to reach RMB 151.63 billion in 2024 [10][12]. - The net profit rose from RMB 9.13 billion in 2022 to RMB 10.81 billion in 2023, with a significant increase expected to RMB 26.30 billion in 2024 [12][10]. Group 3: Business Relationships - Innovation Industry has a close business relationship with Innovation New Materials, which is its largest customer, accounting for 78.8% of its revenue in 2023 [15][16]. - The company emphasizes that transactions with Innovation New Materials are conducted at fair market rates and do not indicate excessive reliance on related parties [16]. Group 4: Market Participation - The IPO attracted significant interest from top-tier investment institutions, including Hillhouse Capital, Jinglin, and China Hongqiao, indicating strong market confidence [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum Corporation (中铝) has announced a capital increase agreement involving Yunnan Aluminum Foil (云南铝箔) and several subsidiaries, totaling RMB 906 million, aimed at enhancing the aluminum industry chain and supporting national carbon reduction strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Increase Details - The capital increase will involve cash and asset contributions from China Aluminum High-end (中铝高端), Yunnan Aluminum (云铝股份), and Kunming Copper (昆明铜业), with contributions of RMB 229 million, RMB 500 million, and RMB 177 million respectively [1]. - After the capital increase, Yunnan Aluminum Foil's registered capital will rise from RMB 800 million to RMB 1.147 billion, with shareholdings of 68.31% for China Aluminum High-end, 9.06% for Northwest Aluminum (西北铝), 16.70% for Yunnan Aluminum, and 5.93% for Kunming Copper [1]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The capital increase is expected to optimize Yunnan Aluminum's production capabilities, enhance local aluminum liquid conversion, and increase alloying rates, aligning with national dual carbon strategies and aluminum industry development plans [2]. - Yunnan Aluminum Foil plans to establish a new energy high-precision aluminum plate and foil project, which is anticipated to yield significant economic benefits upon completion [2].