经济观察报记者 王雅洁 穿行在胜芳古镇的窄巷里，空气中弥漫着河水的湿润与老槐树的清香，橹声欸乃，若不是耳边传来的地道冀中乡音一再提醒，恍惚之间，会让人恍然置身于 江南某个水乡古镇。 从北京出发，沿京德高速一路向南，车窗外的景致从峻峭的森林渐次变为平旷的田野。不过一小时车程，当"霸州"的路牌映入眼帘时，一种与北方干燥气息 迥异的湿润感便悄然袭来。 位于北京、天津、雄安三角地带的霸州，自古便是通衢要冲，但它的底色，远不止于干戈与车马。 置身于霸州胜芳古镇，会颠覆你对北方的固有想象。 这里河渠纵横，舟楫往来，古老的石桥连接着白墙灰檐的民居。初夏的风掠过水面，带来荷塘初绽的微香，与不远处中亭河上货船的汽笛声交织在一起。 站在霸州博物馆的沙盘前，一种奇特的时空错位感油然而生。 沙盘清晰地标示出宋辽时期的关隘、河道与城池。霸州故地，益津关、淤口关、瓦桥关——"三关"如铁锁般扼守着北上南下的咽喉。也正是在这片被战争阴 云笼罩的土地上，水脉纵横，淀泊相连，竟与江南水乡有着几分相似。 这种地理上的矛盾性，从一开始就注定了霸州命运的独特性。 这种"江南错觉"并非空穴来风。 历史上，这里曾是碧波千顷的东淀，宋辽时期便是边关贸易的" ...

Core Viewpoint - China openly criticized the United States' unilateral actions at the World Trade Organization (WTO), highlighting the negative impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy on global service trade [3][9][13]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policies - On October 1, 2025, the U.S. imposed a 100% tariff on imported patented drugs unless companies establish manufacturing in the U.S., significantly impacting the global pharmaceutical supply chain, particularly affecting India [4][9]. - Additional tariffs include a 50% increase on kitchen cabinets and bathroom fixtures, a 30% increase on imported furniture, and a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, continuing the "America First" strategy [4][9]. - The U.S. Customs data indicated that tariff revenue reached $17.4 billion in May 2025, nearly double from the previous year, reshaping global trade dynamics [7]. Group 2: Impact on Global Trade - The WTO meeting on October 3, 2025, saw China presenting a document outlining three main harms of the U.S. tariff policy: undermining multilateral trade rules, negatively affecting service trade, and exacerbating challenges for developing countries [9][11]. - The global service trade growth is projected to decline by 0.3 percentage points due to the tariff war, affecting multinational companies' outsourcing strategies [11]. - Countries like India and Brazil reported significant economic impacts, with India's pharmaceutical exports dropping by 12% and Brazil's economic growth potentially decreasing by 0.5 percentage points if U.S. tariffs persist [15]. Group 3: Multilateral Response - The meeting prompted a united response from multiple countries condemning U.S. protectionism, contrasting sharply with the U.S.'s long-standing unilateralism [15][17]. - China's call for maintaining WTO rules and establishing a global trade order based on rules rather than power received increasing support from other nations [13][25]. - The concept of "shared responsibility" proposed by China is gaining recognition, emphasizing the need for an inclusive rule system for the healthy development of service trade [25]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The ongoing trade situation represents a fundamental clash between multilateralism and unilateralism, with China advocating for reforms within the WTO framework [23][25]. - The restructuring of global supply chains is evident, with increased costs in intermediate goods trade by 12% in the first half of 2025, prompting companies to reassess their production capacities [19]. - The U.S. faces domestic repercussions from its tariff policies, with household expenses rising by $1,200 annually due to tariffs, ultimately affecting consumer prices [21].

Economic Indicators - The ISM Services PMI fell from 52 in August to 50 in September, indicating stagnation in service sector expansion, below the market expectation of 51.7[2] - The Services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 0.4%[2] - The Manufacturing PMI increased slightly from 48.7 in August to 49.1 in September, above the market expectation of 49, indicating a slowdown in contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - The employment index in the services sector rose from 46.5 to 47.2, showing a slower contraction[2] - The price index for services increased from 69.2 to 69.4, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures[2] - The number of initial unemployment claims decreased at the end of September compared to the beginning of the month, suggesting stability in the job market[1] Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown in October is expected to lead to 700,000 federal employees being furloughed, with an estimated GDP impact of 0.1-0.2 percentage points for each week of shutdown[1] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting may reference September data, with a 96.2% market expectation for no rate cut in October due to improved employment data and high inflation[1] Future Projections - The Federal Reserve is likely to pause rate cuts in October but may consider a rate cut in December as economic slowdown continues[1]

Group 1 - The new tariffs announced by the Trump administration are unexpectedly high, affecting various industries including pharmaceuticals, furniture, and heavy trucks, with rates reaching up to 100% [1][4] - The pharmaceutical industry, particularly Indian companies, is significantly impacted, with 31.35% of India's $27.85 billion pharmaceutical exports going to the U.S., and 47% of U.S. generic drugs sourced from India [1] - Pfizer received a three-year exemption from the tariffs, causing its stock price to rise, indicating a selective approach to tariff implementation [2] Group 2 - The film industry is also targeted with a proposed 100% tariff, creating uncertainty and concern among Hollywood stakeholders [4] - Additional tariffs on imported wood products are set to take effect, further straining Canadian exporters and causing alarm among suppliers in Vietnam and China [4] - A U.S. furniture manufacturer expressed skepticism about the long-term benefits of tariffs, noting that while prices may rise temporarily, the reliance on imported raw materials will ultimately affect consumers [6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates, indicating a response to economic pressures, with discussions around further rate cuts to mitigate inflation caused by tariffs [8][10] - There is a growing divide within the Federal Reserve regarding the approach to interest rates, with some members advocating for more aggressive cuts to support employment [8][10] - Market data suggests a high probability of another rate cut in October, reflecting the tension between tariff impacts and monetary policy [10] Group 4 - The tariffs are reshaping global trade dynamics, turning traditional allies like Mexico and Canada into competitive adversaries, which could lead to a reevaluation of export strategies by European companies [12] - The ongoing conflict between protectionist policies and globalization is a recurring theme in the U.S. economy, raising questions about the long-term implications of current tariff strategies [14]

据国家发展改革委消息，今年1—8月，全国共有3.3亿人次申领消费品以旧换新补贴，带动相关商品销 售额超过2万亿元；限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材、文化办公用品、家具、通讯器材类商品零售额 同比分别增长28.4%、22.3%、22.0%、21.1%，支撑社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.6%。 了解更多 ▶ 来源/国家发展改革委 近日，国家发展改革委已会同财政部，向地方下达了今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以 旧换新资金，至此，全年3000亿元中央资金已全部下达。下一步，各有关部门将进一步组织地方合理把 握工作节奏，完善资金使用计划，均衡有序支出补贴资金，加强产品质量和价格监管，严厉打击骗补套 补等违法违规行为，平稳有序实施消费品以旧换新政策，推动补贴资金用到实处、见到实效。 编辑/羊秀 胡禹山 ...

路透社10月2日发表的一篇文章表示，支持以技术驱动的"智能经济"、实现产品和服务的不断创新，以及灵活的政策制定，保护了中国经济发展，并有助于 为中国的经济转型奠定坚实的基础。 这篇文章的作者是法国巴黎银行证券前亚太股票研究主管马尼什·雷乔杜里。雷乔杜里在文章中表示，得益于政府的新政策和现行政策，中国八月份经济不 乏亮点。 作者在文章中指出，北京为支持包括人工智能、半导体和其他先进制造业在内的中国"智能经济"所做的努力，使得信息技术和商业服务行业的发展，自2024 年初以来，超过了其他许多行业，并且这一趋势还将持续下去，因为中国正在大力投资工业机器人和人形机器人，以提升生产力。过去三年，全球超过一半 的工业机器人安装在中国。 路透社文章援引国际机器人联合会显示在中国安装的工业机器人比例不断上升 此外，中国政府的定向政策也为零售业提供了支撑。自2024年底实施以旧换新政策以来，零售业增长最快的领域——家用电器、家具、通讯和办公设备都从 这一政策中受益。今年前八个月，中国零售业销售额实现小幅增长。 作者认为，中国经济增长的另一个驱动力是消费者偏好的转变。中国千禧一代和 Z 世代正涌向新型国内产品和服务，那些可以促进 ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities raised the target price for Minhua Holdings (01999) by 11% from HKD 4.5 to HKD 5, maintaining an "outperform" rating despite weak domestic demand, citing stable underlying profits due to margin improvements [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Minhua achieved stable underlying profits in FY2025, attributed to margin enhancements [1] - The net profit estimates for 2026 and 2027 were reduced by 7.1% and 7.5% respectively, reflecting lower sales assumptions and tariffs [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Minhua's global production base has shown resilience in overseas sales, helping to mitigate the impact of US tariffs [1] - Continuous efficiency optimization and increased overseas capacity are expected to stabilize short-term profitability [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is anticipated to benefit from a potential stabilization in domestic demand by 2026 [1] - CITIC Securities rolled forward the valuation to 2027, applying a higher price-to-earnings ratio of 8.8 times, up from 7.5 times, which is still below the three-year average by 0.5 standard deviations [1]

美联储这边也没闲着。 9月18日刚降息25个基点，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯就在月底露面表态。 他说劳动 力市场有点疲软，支持"适度降息"，但通胀控制不能松。 这话说得滴水不漏，既承认要救就业，又强 调2%的通胀目标还没达成。 特朗普刚宣布对进口药品加征100%关税，转头就给了辉瑞三年豁免权！ 这波操作让全球药企炸锅，凭 什么只有辉瑞能躲过子弹？ 要知道，印度仿制药占美国市场47%，关税大刀砍下去，普通美国人买药 的价格可能瞬间翻倍。 关税清单像雪片一样砸下来。 重型卡车25%、厨房橱柜50%、家具30%，最狠的是专利药品直接翻倍征 收。 这些政策从公布到执行只隔了四天，很多企业连反应时间都没有。 白宫的说法是"保护本土产 业"，但墨西哥、加拿大、日本这些盟友国的卡车制造商已经被打得措手不及。 制药行业尤其惨烈。 印度作为"世界药房"，出口美国药品占其总出口额三成以上。 新关税生效后，孟 买的药厂流水线连夜调整订单，而爱尔兰和瑞士的药企则紧急开会讨论转移生产线。 豁免名单成了谈判筹码。 白宫悄悄补充说，已经和美国达成关税协议的国家只需交15%的税。 这招明 显是在逼其他国家坐下来谈新条件。 比如加拿大，软木关税从旧 ...

Core Points - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance have allocated 69 billion yuan in the fourth batch of special long-term bonds to support the consumption of old goods for new ones, completing the annual allocation of 300 billion yuan in central funds [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation - The NDRC and the Ministry of Finance have been implementing the "two new" policy effectively, ensuring the orderly distribution of special long-term bond funds to support the replacement of consumer goods [1] - Local departments have been improving the implementation mechanism and strengthening fund supervision to achieve positive results from the old-for-new consumption policy [1] Group 2: Impact on Consumer Goods Market - From January to August this year, 330 million people have applied for subsidies under the old-for-new consumption policy, driving sales of related goods to exceed 2 trillion yuan [1] - Retail sales of household appliances, audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment have seen year-on-year growth rates of 28.4%, 22.3%, 22.0%, and 21.1% respectively, supporting a 4.6% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [1] Group 3: Future Plans - The NDRC plans to further organize local governments to reasonably manage the work pace, improve fund usage plans, and ensure balanced and orderly expenditure of subsidy funds [1] - There will be a focus on enhancing product quality and price supervision, as well as cracking down on fraudulent subsidy claims to ensure the effective implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy [1]

Group 1: Tariff Policies - The recent tariff policies announced by Trump include a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom sinks, 30% on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs, with implementation occurring just four days after the announcement [3][5] - The 100% tariff on drugs significantly impacts India, which exports $27.85 billion worth of pharmaceuticals, with 31.35% going to the U.S., and 47% of U.S. generic drugs being imported from India [5] - On September 30, Trump granted Pfizer a three-year exemption from the 100% drug tariff, causing Pfizer's stock price to rise, highlighting a perceived double standard in tariff application [7] Group 2: Impact on Industries - The film industry is facing a proposed 100% tariff, which could complicate international distribution and negatively affect Hollywood, as over half of its revenue comes from overseas markets [9] - New tariffs on softwood lumber and wood products, including a 10% tariff on imported softwood and a 25% tariff on cabinets and bathroom vanities, will primarily affect Canadian suppliers and could lead to increased costs for U.S. consumers [10] - The overall tariff strategy appears to be broad, potentially affecting various industries, with concerns that domestic production may not meet demand, leading to price increases for consumers [12] Group 3: Federal Reserve Response - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 18, there has been internal disagreement, with some members advocating for a more significant cut to support the labor market [14][16] - The New York Fed President, Williams, indicated support for moderate rate cuts to protect employment and manage inflation, while acknowledging the limited impact of tariffs on inflation so far [16][18] - The Fed faces a balancing act between controlling inflation and supporting employment, with market expectations leaning towards another rate cut in October [18][20]