Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural sector, specifically highlighting the potential for long-term price increases in the pig farming industry due to capacity adjustments and cost optimization by leading companies [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the pig farming industry is experiencing a narrowing of profits as it approaches the bottom of the cycle, with significant differentiation among companies based on cost management [2][3]. - The poultry sector is facing pressure, with varying performance across sub-industries, particularly in white and yellow feathered chickens, while egg production is also struggling [3][27]. - The beef and dairy sectors are expected to see tightening supply in the medium to long term, with potential price increases anticipated in the coming years [75][76]. - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations have positively impacted soybean meal prices, suggesting a return to cost-driven pricing dynamics [80]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - In Q3 2025, 19 listed pig companies reported a total revenue of 1319.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.20% quarter-on-quarter and 5.31% year-on-year, with a net profit of 56.84 billion yuan, down 35.86% quarter-on-quarter and 71.26% year-on-year [14][19]. - The average debt ratio for the pig farming sector in Q3 2025 was 56.45%, reflecting a slight increase, indicating financial pressure amid a down cycle [22]. - The average price of live pigs on October 31 was 12.54 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.73 yuan/kg, but the industry is still facing losses [39]. Poultry Sector - The poultry sector's performance in Q3 2025 was mixed, with white feathered chicken companies reporting a net profit of 2.08 billion yuan, down 66.33% quarter-on-quarter, while yellow feathered chicken companies turned a profit of 1.55 billion yuan [28][29]. - The average price of white feathered chicken was 7.09 yuan/kg as of October 31, with a week-on-week increase of 0.21 yuan/kg, indicating a tightening supply [59]. Beef and Dairy - The price of calves was 32.1 yuan/kg as of October 31, with a year-to-date increase of 33.14%, while the price of fattened bulls remained stable at 25.67 yuan/kg [75]. - The dairy sector is experiencing low prices, with the average price of raw milk at 3.04 yuan/kg, down 31% from the peak, leading to ongoing capacity reductions [76]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal price increased to 3046 yuan/ton in the spot market, up 62 yuan/ton week-on-week, driven by recent U.S.-China trade negotiations [80]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming USDA reports and South American planting weather for further price movements [80].

德国负责动物健康事务的弗里德里希·洛夫勒研究所3日表示，德国禽流感疫情持续加剧，已有近100万 只鸡、鸭、鹅和火鸡等禽类被扑杀处理。 该研究所发言人说，自9月初以来，全德共有66个家禽养殖场报告禽流感疫情，目前疫情仍无缓解迹 象。由于病毒可能随着秋季候鸟迁徙进一步扩散，疫情或将向西南部地区蔓延。 除采取扑杀措施外，德国多地还设立了防护区等，以遏制疫情蔓延。10月底，与法国和卢森堡接壤的萨 尔州成为首个要求家禽圈养的德国联邦州，原本露天散养的禽类自次日起被转入封闭空间养殖，以降低 感染风险。10月31日，汉堡市也宣布禁止家禽散养。 （文章来源：新华社） 截至目前，受疫情冲击最严重的是德国西北部的下萨克森州，共有30个养殖场发现禽流感疫情。其次为 东部的勃兰登堡州和梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州，分别有11个养殖场和7个养殖场报告疫情。 弗里德里希·洛夫勒研究所此前已将德国家禽养殖场疫情风险等级从"低"上调至"高"，并表示本轮禽流 感疫情暴发时间较往年提前。专家指出，家禽疫情的持续扩散与候鸟迁徙活动密切相关。感染病毒的野 鸟在发病初期仍具飞行能力，可能沿迁徙路线将病毒传播至家禽养殖场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tian Nong Group has submitted its prospectus for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the ninth listed company in Qingyuan, leveraging its strong position in the Qingyuan chicken market and a comprehensive industry chain [1][2]. Company Overview - Established in 2003, Tian Nong Group has evolved from a regional poultry farming enterprise to one of China's leading providers of high-quality meat and meat products [1]. - The company operates a vertically integrated industry chain covering breeding, ecological farming, feed production, slaughtering, food processing, and brand marketing [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company will have 4 feed mills, 16 chicken farms, 52 pig farms, and 1 slaughterhouse, indicating a well-established infrastructure [1]. Market Position - According to a Frost & Sullivan report, Tian Nong Group holds a 59.3% market share in the Qingyuan chicken market, surpassing all competitors combined, and ranks second among yellow feathered chicken providers in Guangdong Province [2]. - In the pig farming sector, the company is projected to rank eighth in revenue in Southwest China for 2024, with its per-head gross profit ranking second among large-scale breeding enterprises nationwide [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue figures for Tian Nong Group from 2022 to 2024 are as follows: 3.952 billion yuan in 2022, 3.596 billion yuan in 2023, and 4.776 billion yuan in 2024, with a revenue of 2.221 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 3.0% year-on-year growth [2]. - The net profit trajectory shows a profit of 341 million yuan in 2022, a loss of 669 million yuan in 2023 due to industry cycle fluctuations, a rebound to a profit of 890 million yuan in 2024, and a net profit of 127 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit margin of 5.7% [2]. Social Responsibility and Business Model - The company's unique "family farm model" integrates social responsibility with business development, having paid over 1.466 billion yuan in contract farming fees to local farmers from 2022 to the first half of 2025, thereby increasing the income of thousands of farmers [2]. - This model is seen as a market-oriented practice of the rural revitalization strategy, achieving a shared benefit between the company and farmers [2].

Core Viewpoint - Tianong Food Group Co., Ltd. has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CMB International as its sole sponsor. The company is recognized as the largest provider of Qingyuan chicken in China based on output volume during the reporting period [1][4]. Company Overview - Since its establishment in 2003, Tianong Food has evolved from a regional poultry farming enterprise to one of China's leading high-quality meat and meat product providers. The company has built a vertically integrated operational system around its core products, including Qingyuan chicken and pork [4]. - The business model encompasses the entire value chain, including breeding, ecological farming, feed production, slaughtering, food processing, and brand marketing [4]. Market Position - According to a report by Frost & Sullivan, Tianong Food is projected to hold approximately 59.3% of the Qingyuan chicken market share in China by 2024, surpassing all other providers combined. The company ranks second among all yellow feathered chicken providers in Guangdong Province [4]. - In the pork business, Tianong Food ranks eighth among pig farming enterprises in Southwest China based on revenue as of December 31, 2024, and second in terms of gross profit per head among large-scale pig farming enterprises in China [4]. Product Portfolio - Tianong Food offers a comprehensive product range, including Qingyuan chicken, other native chicken varieties, pork products, and fresh products, catering to changing consumer preferences. The company has established a diversified product portfolio under its own brands, "Tianong" and "Fengzhonghuang" [5]. - The brand matrix includes products with different breeding cycles, feeding methods, and flavor characteristics, such as "Tianong 138 Qingyuan Chicken" and "Tianong 168 Qingyuan Chicken" [5]. Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, Tianong Food reported revenues of approximately RMB 39.52 billion, RMB 35.96 billion, RMB 47.76 billion, and RMB 22.21 billion, respectively. The corresponding net profits/losses were approximately RMB 3.41 billion, -RMB 6.69 billion, RMB 8.90 billion, and RMB 1.27 billion [6].

Core Insights - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates fluctuations in the prices of broiler chickens and chicks throughout September, with a notable decline in profits for chicken farming operations [1][3]. Group 1: Chick Prices - In early September, the price of white feather chicks increased slightly from 3.27 CNY/chick to 3.31 CNY/chick due to active replenishment in the breeding sector and cross-regional demand [2]. - By mid-September, chick prices decreased to a range of 3.03 CNY/chick to 3.20 CNY/chick, influenced by rising costs in the breeding sector and tight supply plans from breeding stock [2][3]. - In late September, chick prices stabilized after a brief increase, fluctuating between 3.13 CNY/chick and 3.28 CNY/chick [2]. Group 2: Broiler Chicken Prices - The average price of white feather broiler chicken in September was 6.99 CNY/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.22% and a month-on-month decrease of 2% [3]. - The average price of chicken products was 8712.92 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.77% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.18% [3]. - The report highlights a significant loss in broiler chicken farming, with losses of 1 CNY/chick and 0.41 CNY/chick for hatcheries, indicating a substantial decline in profitability [3]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The long-term outlook for poultry demand is expected to improve due to anticipated recovery in consumer spending, despite current pressures on chicken product demand and prices [4]. - The supply side remains stable with sufficient upstream breeding stock, but attention is needed on the impact of avian influenza and other diseases on production [4]. - Companies such as Shengnong Development, Yisheng Shares, and Hefeng Shares are recommended for investment focus, as they may benefit from improved profitability and valuation recovery in the poultry sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - Lihua Co., Ltd. (300761) announced on October 28 that it has established an annual slaughter capacity of 150 million chickens and aims to enhance capacity utilization to reduce processing costs while expanding its chilled chicken channels and strengthening the "fresh and frozen linkage" strategy [1] Group 1 - The company has built an annual slaughter capacity of 150 million chickens [1] - The target slaughter volume for the slaughter segment in 2025 is set at 100 million chickens [1] - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement along with extending the industrial chain [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lihua Co., Ltd. reported an increase in the complete cost of broiler chickens to approximately 11.4 yuan/kg in Q3 due to rising feed raw material costs and the impact of prolonged high temperatures on production metrics, but expects a potential decrease in costs with the arrival of seasonal production [1] Group 1: Cost and Production Insights - The complete cost of broiler chicken production increased to about 11.4 yuan/kg in Q3, reflecting a rise in feed raw material costs and adverse weather conditions [1] - The company anticipates a certain degree of cost reduction as seasonal production begins [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The yellow feather broiler chicken market hit a low in June and July but began to recover starting in August [1] - Since August, the yellow feather broiler chicken segment has remained profitable, indicating positive market conditions [1] Group 3: Management and Strategy - The company is focused on enhancing precision management across all operational segments to maintain cost advantages [1] - There is a sustained confidence in the market outlook for the company moving forward [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 14.706 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.86%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.159 billion yuan, up 202.82% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.849 billion yuan, an increase of 18.77% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.4% to 249 million yuan [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's chicken sales reached 1.099 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, with an average selling price of 9,578 yuan per ton, down 3.1% [2] - In Q3 2025, chicken sales were 435,000 tons, up 16.3% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 9,398 yuan per ton, down 5.9% [2] - The company maintained a price premium of 778 yuan per ton over the industry average in Q3 2025, continuing a trend of over 600 yuan per ton for four consecutive quarters [2] Market Strategy and Growth - The deep processing food business generated revenue of 6.911 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a growth of 17.1%, with Q3 revenue reaching 2.885 billion yuan, up 36.7% [2] - The company is committed to an omnichannel strategy, achieving over 30% growth in retail channels and 40% growth in export channels [2] Operational Efficiency - Following the consolidation of Sun Valley, the company reported an additional profit of 49.815 million yuan from Sun Valley due to improved operational efficiency [3] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.409 billion yuan, 1.06 billion yuan, and 1.206 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of +94.5%, -24.8%, and +13.8% [3]

Core Insights - The avian influenza outbreak in Germany has led to the culling of over 500,000 birds, including chickens, ducks, geese, and turkeys, with the situation expected to worsen as more cases are reported [1][2] - The outbreak is particularly severe in the eastern regions of Germany, specifically in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Brandenburg, where significant numbers of poultry have been culled to control the spread [1] - The Friedrich-Loeffler Institute has raised the risk level for poultry farms from "low" to "high," linking the spread of the virus to migratory birds [1][2] Summary by Sections Outbreak Details - Since early September, 30 outbreaks have been reported in poultry farms across Germany, with the potential for further increases in cases [1] - In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, nearly 150,000 egg-laying hens have been culled, and an additional 130,000 birds are set to be culled in Brandenburg to control the outbreak [1] Impact on Poultry Industry - The Bavarian Poultry Association has warned that the current outbreak could lead to a 50% increase in egg prices if the situation continues to deteriorate [2] - There are calls for a nationwide temporary "caging order" to require farms to move free-range birds into enclosed spaces to reduce infection risks [2] Virus Transmission - The current outbreak is occurring earlier than in previous years, coinciding with the autumn migratory period for birds, which increases the risk of virus transmission [2] - The scale of infection among cranes is unprecedented, with approximately 1,500 crane carcasses collected in Brandenburg [2] - The primary transmission routes for the avian influenza virus include direct contact with infected birds and indirect transmission through contaminated environments [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in pig prices is driven by emotional factors and seasonal consumption recovery, with a focus on the sustainability of secondary fattening entry [2][3] Pig Farming Sector - The concentration of large pig sales has led to a decrease in large pig inventory, widening the price gap and increasing the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, with a sales proportion of 2.09% from October 11-20, up by 1.07 percentage points [1][2] - The national average pig price on October 24 was 11.81 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.63 yuan/kg week-on-week [2] - The average weight of pigs sold continues to decline, with an average weight of 127.90 kg for the week of October 24, down by 0.35 kg week-on-week [2] - Long-term expectations indicate a downward shift in pig prices, with increasing losses in farming and enhanced expectations for capacity reduction policies, which may lead to a long-term upward shift in the price center [1][3] Cattle Sector - Short-term prices for beef cattle have slightly declined, while long-term trends suggest a potential upward cycle for beef prices due to previous long-term losses leading to capacity clearance [4] Dairy Sector - Raw milk prices are currently at a cyclical low, with a price of 3.04 yuan/kg as of October 17, remaining stable week-on-week but down 31% from the cyclical high [4] - The ongoing losses in raw milk are expected to drive continued capacity reduction, potentially stabilizing prices in the future [4] Poultry Sector - The price of white chickens remains stable, with a price of 6.88 yuan/kg as of October 24, reflecting a slight increase week-on-week [5] - Egg prices have decreased, with an average price of 6.06 yuan/kg, while chick prices remain stable [5] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have rebounded from a low, with a current price of 2984 yuan/ton as of October 24, down by 26 yuan/ton week-on-week [7] - The futures market for soybean meal showed a recovery, with the main contract closing at 2933 yuan/ton, up by 65 yuan/ton week-on-week [7]