固定收益 | 动态跟踪 保持短久期、高流动性策略 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 13 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 估值小幅修复，底仓品种价值显现：可转 | 2025-09-29 | | --- | --- ...

| 分项指数 | 2025M9 | 2025M8 | 涨幅(25M9-25M8) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总指数 | 89.0 | 89.1 | 1 | -0.1 | | 宏观经济感受指数 | 97.8 | 98.0 | 1 | -0.2 | | 综合经营指数 | 97.2 | 97.6 | 1 | -0.4 | | 市场指数 | 81.1 | 81.2 | 1 | -0.1 | | 成本指数 | 111.7 | 111.8 | 1 | -0.1 | | 资金指数 | 100.3 | 100.5 | 1 | -0.2 | | 劳动力指数 | 105.8 | 105.7 | 1 | 0.1 | | 投入指数 | 82.4 | 82.5 | 1 | -0.1 | | 效益指数 | 74 | 73.8 | 1 | 0.2 | 分行业指数3升1平4降。如下表所示，9月份，建筑业、交通运输业和批发零售业的指数分别较上月上升 0.2、0.4和0.1个点。社会服务业指数与上月持平。工业、房地产业、信息传输软件业和住宿餐饮业的指 数分别较上月下降0.2、0.3、0.1和0. ...

建筑业、房地产业作为国民经济的重要行业，其数字化、智能化转型不仅关乎行业自身可持续发展，对 构建现代化经济体系、实现经济社会高质量发展同样具有重要意义。当前，建筑业、房地产业正处于数 字化、智能化转型的关键期，亟需加大力度、凝聚共识，探寻与新质生产力相适应的新发展模式。 构建智能建造体系 各地正大力推动"好房子"建设，"好房子"的一个重要特征就是让居民生活更智慧。今年5月1日起实施的 国家标准《住宅项目规范》中，对住宅智能化有明确要求，包括住宅建筑应设通信系统，公共移动通信 信号应能覆盖至住宅建筑的公共空间和电梯轿厢内等内容。 住房和城乡建设部标准定额司有关负责人介绍，数字家庭作为新一代信息技术与建筑深度融合的关键载 体，是扩大内需和发展数字经济的重要举措，对建设安全、舒适、绿色、智慧的"好房子"有积极推动作 用。我国正开展数字家庭试点，18个试点地区聚焦家庭空间多元需求，取得积极进展。 基础设施和平台建设是数字家庭建设的前提。四川省雅安市雨城区在住宅土地出让时明确数字化小区硬 件建设要求，建好数字家庭前端通道，以四网融合提升满足数字家庭系统需求的电力和信息网络连接能 力。江苏省张家港市构建"家庭综合信息箱+ ...

Core Viewpoint - The IMARC 2025 conference, set to take place in Sydney from October 21 to 23, 2025, will redefine global mining dynamics and cooperation trends, focusing on energy transition and investment opportunities in the context of a reshaped supply chain [1][27]. Group 1: Conference Overview - IMARC 2025 is expected to attract over 10,000 participants from more than 120 countries, marking a record scale and international influence for the event [3]. - The conference will feature high-profile speakers, including New South Wales Premier Chris Minns and Australian Federal Ministers, who will discuss Australia's strategic position in critical minerals and clean energy [5][6]. Group 2: Global Participation - Ministers from five continents, including representatives from Saudi Arabia, New Zealand, and Peru, will engage in discussions on supply chain security and energy transition [12][13]. - The conference will also showcase national pavilions from various countries, highlighting key mineral projects and investment opportunities [13]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - IMARC 2025 will emphasize the application of digitalization, AI, automation, and low-carbon technologies in mining, with a new "Innovation & Investment Alley" to showcase breakthrough solutions [17]. - Notable projects expected to be presented include lunar exploration initiatives and next-generation electric mining vehicles [17]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Investor Program will facilitate discussions on capital restructuring in critical mineral supply chains and the impact of electric vehicles and energy storage on mining investments [24]. - A new "Investor Concierge Service" will provide tailored matchmaking to enhance capital and project connections [24]. Group 5: Australia-China Cooperation - The conference is seen as a pivotal platform for deepening Australia-China cooperation in resource development and green technology, with both countries having complementary strengths in critical minerals and renewable energy [26]. - Australia's "Future Made in Australia" initiative aims to establish a localized critical mineral processing and green manufacturing system, enhancing energy security and regional development [26].

Core Viewpoint - Agile Group (03383) reported a significant decrease in pre-sale amounts for its real estate projects, indicating potential challenges in the market [1] Summary by Categories Pre-sale Performance - The total pre-sale amount for Agile Group and its subsidiaries, joint ventures, and projects managed under the "Agile" brand is approximately RMB 460 million, corresponding to a construction area of about 56,000 square meters, with an average price of RMB 8,241 per square meter as of September 2025 [1] - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the total pre-sale amount was approximately RMB 6.73 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 44.66%, with a corresponding construction area of about 733,000 square meters and an average price of RMB 9,183 per square meter [1]

Core Points - The ongoing investor compensation cases against Guanghui Logistics (600603) and Gome Communication (600898) due to false statements are being actively pursued [1][2] - Guanghui Logistics has been found to have inflated its revenue, costs, and profits through fraudulent practices, significantly affecting its financial reports for 2022 and the first half of 2023 [1] - Gome Communication has also been implicated in false reporting, with its 2020 annual report showing inflated revenue and costs, as well as fraudulent stock issuance [3][4] Guanghui Logistics (600603) - Guanghui Logistics has received an administrative penalty from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) for falsifying delivery documents to prematurely recognize real estate revenue [1] - The company inflated its 2022 revenue by approximately 2.89 billion yuan, which accounted for 57.65% of the reported revenue, and inflated its profit by about 622 million yuan, representing 78.52% of the reported profit [1] - For the first half of 2023, the company inflated its revenue by approximately 265 million yuan, which was 19.23% of the reported revenue, and inflated its profit by about 55 million yuan, accounting for 15.98% of the reported profit [1] Gome Communication (600898) - Gome Communication has been found to have false entries in its 2020 annual report, inflating revenue by approximately 57.82 million yuan and costs by about 57.46 million yuan, which represented 61.53% and 62.18% of the respective totals [3] - The company’s 2020 non-public stock issuance has been classified as fraudulent [3] - The 2021 annual report also contained false entries, with a net profit overstatement of approximately 1.96 million yuan, which was 38.35% of the reported net profit [3][4]

Group 1 - The company, Teda Co., announced a share buyback program, having repurchased approximately 4.16 million shares, which represents 0.282% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of about 17.74 million yuan [1][1][1] - The highest and lowest prices for the repurchased shares were 4.44 yuan and 4.01 yuan per share, respectively [1][1][1] - As of the report date, Teda Co. has a market capitalization of 6.2 billion yuan [1][1][1] Group 2 - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue composition was as follows: wholesale industry accounted for 89.05%, environmental management for 9.89%, construction for 0.44%, textile and apparel for 0.37%, and real estate for 0.26% [1][1][1]

7年前，苏州廖旗花370万买了套湖景房。 那会儿多风光啊，身边朋友都夸他"很有魄力""是人生赢家"，说自己要是有这魄力就好了。 因为他每月要还9700块房贷，利率最高的时候，一个月得掏1万2。 "以前别人羡慕我有房，现在我倒羡慕那些没买房的。" 现在他常自嘲说，"没房贷的人，每个月比我多近万块可劲儿花，旅游，我呢？工资一到账先给银行打过去，剩下的钱只够买菜做饭，连件新衣服都舍不得 买。" 你还别说，现在这样的人真不少—— 以前大家挤破头想买房，现在不少背着房贷的人，反而觉得没买房的日子更舒坦。 房奴的日子：表面光鲜，内里全是苦 现在的房奴，看着有套房子撑场面，其实日子过得比谁都紧巴。 我小区有个张姐，前两年掏空家里6个钱包，又借了点钱，在市区买了套两居室。 为了还房贷，她白天在公司当会计，晚上去超市理货，周末还得去做钟点工，一天睡不了6个小时。 她老公更拼，跑货运经常半夜才回家，去年冬天还因为疲劳驾驶差点出车祸。 就这，每月1万2的房贷一扣，家里连给孩子报兴趣班的钱都得算着花。 张姐说："有时候看着孩子眼巴巴盯着别人学钢琴，我心里就发酸，要不是为了这套房，孩子也不用受这委屈。" 我们过去一直强调：房贷最好别超 ...

楼市寒冬下的抉择：八十万存款，是"抄底"还是"卧倒"？ 然而，持"观望"态度的人士则坚决反对，他们深信国内楼市仍存在难以消化的泡沫。将资金存入银行，至少能确保本金的安全和固定的微薄利息；而一旦贸 然投入房产，不仅要承受资产价值缩水的心理煎熬，更要面对未来房产可能"有价无市"的尴尬局面。 对于"买房"还是"存钱"的终极拷问，实业巨擘曹德旺先生多年前便给出了他的判断。他曾犀利地指出，当下的房产市场，已然异化成少数富人之间的"击鼓 传花"游戏——有闲置多套房产的人居高临下，而真正需要安居的人却望房兴叹。他预言，这场游戏终将有散场的一日，届时无人愿意接盘。更进一步，曹 德旺强调，房子终究是由钢筋水泥构筑的实体建筑，其价值必将随着时间的推移，逐步贬值为零。 显然，在曹德旺的洞察中，未来的楼市将呈现出长期、持续的贬值趋势，并最终走向"无人问津"的境地。因此，现在和未来一两年内出手购房，无疑是一项 欠妥的决策。我们的观点与曹德旺先生不谋而合，认为面对这80万元的存款，选择继续存放在银行，而非急于入市，是基于以下三个核心考量： 首先，安全边际的确定性对比。 尽管银行的"吸储"能力正在减弱，存款利率连年攀降，但资金置于银行所带 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent land auction in Fuzhou saw Fuzhou Xingjing Real Estate Co., Ltd. winning a prime residential and commercial land parcel, indicating strategic moves in the local real estate market by major players like Longxiang Holdings Group [1][3][9]. Group 1: Land Auction Details - The land parcel 2025-39 was acquired by Fuzhou Xingjing Real Estate Co., Ltd. for 322 million yuan, translating to a floor price of 10,380.60 yuan per square meter [3]. - The land area is approximately 25.85 acres, designated for residential and commercial use, located in a prime area near the Minjiang River and the planned Metro Line 6 extension [3][5]. Group 2: Company Background - Fuzhou Xingjing Real Estate Co., Ltd. was established on June 19, 2025, with a registered capital of 10 million yuan, and operates in the real estate industry [6]. - The company is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sanhe (Fujian) Construction Engineering Co., Ltd., indicating a strong backing in the construction sector [9]. Group 3: Longxiang Holdings Group - Longxiang Holdings Group, founded in 1998, is a comprehensive investment group involved in real estate development and other sectors such as engineering, mineral resources, and international trade [11][13]. - The group has expanded its operations across six provinces and 14 cities, with total assets exceeding 10 billion yuan and a significant portfolio of over 50 developed projects [13][16]. - The recent acquisition of the land in Fuzhou is seen as a strategic move to re-enter the local market, enhancing its presence in the Jiangnan CBD area [11].