宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.30 2025-09-30 PMI 边际回升：供给推动 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——2025 年 9 月 PMI 数据点评 本报告导读： 9 月制造业季节性回升，主因供给推动，内需仍需提振。暑期效应消退 后，服务业景气度分化。此外，建筑业表现疲软，还需政策发力。 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产需求有待提振。 houhuan@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525040074 专 宏 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 观 题 021-23185643 梁中华(分析师) 021-23219820 liangzhonghua@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 2025 年 9 月份，制造业 PMI 为 49.8%，比上月上升 0.4 个百分点。 服务业商务活动指数为 50.1%，比上月下降 0.4 个百分点。建筑业 商务活动指数为 49.3%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点 制造业 PMI 回升：主因供给推动。 ...

2025 年 09 月 30 日 企业生产积极性明显提升，高技术产业领先 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 9 月制造业 PMI 为 49.8，环比继续回升 0.4；非制造业 PMI 为 50.0，环比下降 0.3；综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.6，环比上 升 0.1。 投资要点 ▌ 制造业：景气度明显改善 生产指数大幅提升提升 1.1 至 51.9，为近 6 个月高点。新订 单指数提升 0.2 至 49.7，其中新出口订单提升 0.6 至 47.8。 企业生产经营活动积极性明显提升：进口指标回升 0.1 至 48.1；原材料库存回升 0.5 至 48.5；生产回升带动采购量大 幅回升 1.2 至 51.6。 从行业看，从行业看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、汽车、铁路船 舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于 54.0， 产需释放较快；木材加工及家具、石油煤炭及其他燃料加 工、非金属矿物制品等行业产需指数低于临界点。 企业盈利持续承压,供大于求的问题仍然比较突出。原材料购 进 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the manufacturing PMI was below the boom-bust line for the sixth consecutive month, showing production expansion and slightly weak demand. The service industry business activity index expanded moderately above the boom-bust line, but the new order index declined from the previous month. It is expected that counter-cyclical adjustment policies, including 50 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments, will be implemented in the fourth quarter [5][10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **PMI**: In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, below the boom-bust line for six consecutive months, up from 49.4% in the previous month. Large enterprises continued to expand in the prosperity range, medium-sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline of small enterprises narrowed [2][6]. - **Production Index**: The production index in September was 51.9%, up from 50.8% in the previous month, with accelerated production expansion for five consecutive months [2][6]. - **New Order Index**: The new order index in September was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating improved market demand, but still below the boom-bust line [2][6]. - **New Export and Import Order Indexes**: The new export order index in September was 47.8%, up from 47.2% in the previous month; the import index was 48.1%, up from 48.0% in the previous month. It is expected that China's exports will continue to grow rapidly in September [2][7]. - **Price Indexes**: The purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex-factory price index in September were 53.2% and 48.2% respectively. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined from August. It is expected that the year-on-year decline of PPI in September will narrow to about 2.3% [3][7]. - **Inventory Indexes**: The raw material inventory index in September was 48.5%, up from 48.0% in the previous month; the finished product inventory index was 48.2%, up from 46.8% in the previous month. The rebound of the finished product inventory index was related to production expansion, and its sustainability depends on future new orders [4][8]. - **Employment and Expectation Indexes**: The employment index in September was 48.5%, up from 47.9% in the previous month, and the production and operation activity expectation index was 54.1%, up from 53.7% in the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the employment situation and future expectations [9]. Non - Manufacturing Industry - **Overall Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down from 50.3% in the previous month [4][9]. - **Construction Industry**: The construction industry business activity index in September was 49.3%, up from 49.1% in the previous month, with a slight recovery but still weak. The new order index was 42.2%, up from 40.6% in the previous month; the employment index was 39.7%, down from 43.6% in the previous month; the business activity expectation index was 52.4%, up from 51.7% in the previous month. The real estate market was still at the bottom, and real estate development investment was expected to contract significantly in September, dragging down the construction industry [4][9]. - **Service Industry**: The service industry business activity index in September was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month. The new order index was 46.7%, down from 47.7% in the previous month; the employment index remained unchanged at 45.9%; the business activity expectation index was 56.3%, down from 57.0% in the previous month. Industries such as postal, telecommunications, and financial services were in a high - level prosperity range, while industries such as catering, real estate, and cultural and sports entertainment were below the critical point [4][10].

本报记者 孟珂 9月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，9月份，制造业采购经理 指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百 分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，我国经济总体产出扩张略有加快。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群对《证券日报》记者表示，9月份PMI指数继续小幅回升，表 明稳增长多项政策的综合效果进一步显现。生产指数明显回升，采购量指数、生产经营活动预期指数回 升，显示企业生产经营活动有恢复迹象。同时要注意价格类指数均有不同程度回落，表明市场供大于求 的情况仍然比较突出；订单类指数均处荣枯线之下，需求不足问题仍需高度重视。 9月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点，非制造业业务总量总 体稳定。 服务业商务活动指数保持扩张。服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，继续位于扩张区间。从行业看，邮政、 电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、货币金融服务等行业商务活动指数均位于60.0%以上高位景气区间，业 务总量保持较快增长；同时，受暑期效应消退影响，与居民 ...

2025年9月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 （二）小型企业PMI回升。大型企业PMI为51.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，持续高于临界点，保持平 稳扩张态势；中型企业PMI为48.8%，比上月略降0.1个百分点，景气水平基本平稳；小型企业PMI为 48.2%，比上月上升1.6个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 （一）服务业商务活动指数保持扩张。服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，继续位于扩张区间。从行业看， 邮政、电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、货币金融服务等行业商务活动指数均位于60.0%以上高位景气区 间，业务总量保持较快增长；同时，受暑期效应消退影响，与居民出行消费密切相关的餐饮、文化体育 娱乐等行业商务活动指数落至临界点以下。从市场预期看，业务活动预期指数为56.3%，今年以来始终 位于55.0%以上较高景气区间，表明服务业企业对行业发展预期稳定乐观。 （二）建筑业商务活动指数小幅回升。建筑业商务活动指数为49.3%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，建筑业 景气水平小幅回升。从市场预期看，业务活动预期指数为52. ...

国家统计局数据显示，9月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造 业景气水平继续改善。国家统计局9月30日消息，9月份，综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，比上月上升0.1个 百分点，持续高于临界点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体扩张继续加快。国家统计局服务业调查中心 首席统计师霍丽慧解读2025年9月中国采购经理指数。 9月份制造业采购经理指数继续回升 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读2025年9月中国采购经理指数 二、非制造业商务活动指数位于临界点 9月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点，非制造业业务总量总 体稳定。 9月份，制造业生产活动加快，PMI升至49.8%，景气水平继续改善。 （一）企业生产扩张加快。生产指数为51.9%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，升至近6个月高点，制造业生 产活动较为活跃；新订单指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，市场需求景气度有所改善。从行业 看，食品及酒饮料精制茶、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于54.0%， 产需释放较快；木材加工及家具、石油煤炭及其他燃 ...

一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 9月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为51.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为48.8%，比 上月下降0.1个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI为48.2%，比上月上升1.6个百分点，仍低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，新订 单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。 生产指数为51.9%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，表明制造业生产扩张加快。 新订单指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气水平继续改善。 原材料库存指数为48.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅继续收窄。 从业人员指数为48.5%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度改善。 供应商配送时间指数为50.8%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间持续加快。 表1 中国制造业PMI及构成指数（经季节调整） | | PMI | 生产 | ...

9月份制造业采购经理指数继续回升 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读2025年9月中国采购经理指数 2025年9月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 9月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上 月下降0.3个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，我国经济总体产出扩张略有 加快。 (一)服务业商务活动指数保持扩张。服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，继续位于扩张区间。从行业看，邮 政、电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、货币金融服务等行业商务活动指数均位于60.0%以上高位景气区 间，业务总量保持较快增长；同时，受暑期效应消退影响，与居民出行消费密切相关的餐饮、文化体育 娱乐等行业商务活动指数落至临界点以下。从市场预期看，业务活动预期指数为56.3%，今年以来始终 位于55.0%以上较高景气区间，表明服务业企业对行业发展预期稳定乐观。 (二)建筑业商务活动指数小幅回升。建筑业商务活动指数为49.3%，比上月上升0.2个百 ...

9月份制造业采购经理指数继续回升 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读2025年9月中国采购经理指数 （三）三大重点行业较快扩张。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI分别为51.9%、51.6%和 50.6%，均明显高于制造业总体，同时上述重点行业生产指数和新订单指数均位于扩张区间，企业供需 两端较为活跃；高耗能行业PMI为47.5%，比上月下降0.7个百分点。 （四）市场预期持续改善。生产经营活动预期指数为54.1%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，连续三个月回 升，表明制造业企业对近期市场发展预期向好。从行业看，农副食品加工、汽车、铁路船舶航空航天设 备等行业生产经营活动预期指数均位于57.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对行业发展信心较强。 二、非制造业商务活动指数位于临界点 9月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点，非制造业业务总量总 体稳定。 （一）服务业商务活动指数保持扩张。服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，继续位于扩张区间。从行业看， 邮政、电信广播电视及卫星传输服务、货币金融服务等行业商务活动指数均位于60.0%以上高位景气区 间，业务总量保持较快 ...

Economic Overview - Guangdong's industrial added value increased by 2.4% year-on-year from January to July, while fixed asset investment decreased by 11.4% [1] - The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.4% during the same period, indicating a slight deflationary trend [1] Industrial Performance - Key industries showed stable growth: computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing increased by 6.9%; electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 7.1%; and automotive manufacturing by 8.5% [1] - High-tech product output saw significant increases: wind turbine units up by 51.7%, new energy vehicles by 15.8%, civil drones by 72.1%, industrial robots by 33.3%, and service robots by 21.3% [1] Consumer Market Dynamics - Social retail sales in Guangdong grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with urban consumption rising by 3.6% and rural consumption by 1.4% [2] - The "old-for-new" policy positively impacted retail sales in various categories, with communication equipment up by 23.5%, home appliances by 42.1%, and furniture by 65.4% [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Guangdong decreased by 11.4%, with real estate development investment down by 17.3% [3] - Industrial investment accounted for 37.7% of total investment, with automotive manufacturing and clean energy investments growing by 8.4% and 7.3%, respectively [3] Infrastructure and Project Development - Major projects like the ExxonMobil Huizhou ethylene project and Guangzhan high-speed rail are accelerating, contributing to economic stability [3][4] - Infrastructure investment increased by 1.1%, indicating a focus on enhancing economic resilience through large-scale projects [4]