Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - In November, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions [2] - Both production index and new orders index improved, reaching 50.0% and 49.2% respectively, with production index crossing the critical point [2] - Small enterprises showed significant recovery with PMI at 49.1%, marking a 2.0 percentage point increase, the highest in six months [2][3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing economic conditions [4] - The service industry index fell to 49.5%, influenced by the end of holiday effects, while certain sectors like railway transport and financial services remained robust [5] - The construction industry index improved to 49.6%, with a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, reflecting increased confidence in the sector [5] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, with manufacturing production index at 50.0% and non-manufacturing business activity index at 49.5% [6]

来源：智通财经 国家统计局11月30日公布11月中国采购经理指数运行情况。 11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 11月份，综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。 11月份，非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点。 产需两端有所改善，11月制造业PMI小幅回升 11月制造业PMI较前值小幅回升0.2个百分点至49.2%，基本符合市场预期。不过，该指数已连续8个月处于荣枯线下方。 在需求端恢复的背景下，企业生产意愿也有所提振，11月生产指数在上月短暂降至收缩区间后回到荣枯线水平。 11月主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为53.6%、48.2%，较上月提高1.1、0.7个百分点，财信研究院宏观团队认为，反内卷政策带动 相关行业供需格局改善以及国际有色金属价格继续回升是主要支撑，但主要原材料价格指数高于50%荣枯线，而出厂价格指数继续处于收缩区 间，表明价格回升仍集中于上游环节，中下游行业的价格传导仍受制于终端需求不足。预计11月份PPI环比继续保持微增，同比约下降2.1%左右， 全年延续负增格局。 11月非 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1] - The production index and new orders index are at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in production and demand [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains above the critical point at 50.1%, indicating continued growth in this sector [2] Group 2: Small and Medium Enterprises - The PMI for small enterprises has significantly increased to 49.1%, up by 2.0 percentage points, marking the highest level in six months [2] - Medium-sized enterprises show a slight improvement with a PMI of 48.9%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last month [2] - Large enterprises, however, experienced a decline in PMI to 49.3%, down by 0.6 percentage points, indicating a drop in economic activity [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in the sector's economic performance [1][4] - The service sector's business activity index has also dropped to 49.5%, down by 0.7 percentage points, influenced by factors such as the end of holiday effects [3][4] - The construction sector shows signs of recovery with a business activity index of 49.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, indicating improved confidence among construction firms [4] Group 4: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 53.1%, up by 0.3 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers regarding market developments [2] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 55.9%, despite a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, suggesting that service sector firms remain optimistic about future market conditions [4] Group 5: Policy Impact - The implementation of new policy financial tools has resulted in the allocation of 500 billion yuan, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on key sectors such as digital economy and infrastructure [5] - The additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds allocated to local governments is expected to further stimulate investment in manufacturing and infrastructure, contributing to an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment [5]

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 11 30 年 月 日 作者 宏观点评 PMI 连续 8 月处于线下的背后 事件：2025 年 11 月制造业 PMI 为 49.2%（前值 49.0%）；非制造业 PMI 为 49.5%（前值 50.1%）。 核心观点：制造业 PMI 已连续 8 个月处于荣枯线下方，本月小幅回升 符合季节性；分项看，供给和外需反弹更多，新出口订单指数明显回 升、主因中美贸易局势短期缓和；服务业 PMI 超季节性回落，主因假 期效应消退、以旧换新政策效果减弱。继续提示：近几个月经济呈现加 速下滑的迹象，但全年"保 5%"有惊无险，短期紧盯 3 大会议：12 月 上中旬政治局会议&中央经济工作会议、对 2026 年政策定调，12.10 美联储议息会议、是否降息很关键。此外，也要关注其它 3 类政策： 我国会否降准降息（预计 2026 年一季度之前大概率会降）；稳地产可 能的组合拳；短期政策接续，包括四季度政策性金融工具、结存限额下 拨、重启买卖国债等政策的效果，各部门对 2026 年以旧换新、谋划新 一批重大项目的"吹风"等。 2、分项看，关注供需端、贸易端、价格 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 戴琨 资格编号：S0120525070002 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 弱势回升显现，景气修复仍待巩固 ——11 月 PMI 数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 11 月 30 日 核心观点：11 月 PMI 显示经济景气延续弱势，制造业虽小幅回升但仍处收缩区间， 服务业明显走弱，整体修复态势偏弱。制造业 PMI 回升至 49.2%，但仍弱于往年 同期水平，我们认为这既反映了"十一"假期后的季节性修复有限、前期"以旧换 新"对订单的拉动效应边际减退，也与全球需求仍偏低迷有关。分项指标上，生产 与新订单虽小幅改善但仍低于荣枯线，企业继续主动去库、用工偏谨慎，显示制造 业内生复苏动能依旧不足。非制造业 PMI 回落至 49.5%，重回荣枯线下，叠加假 期效应消退，服务业动能减弱、建筑业虽有回升但仍偏弱，新订单与库存指标均指 向需求 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI increased to 49.2% in November, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [2][3] - The production index and new orders index were at 50.0% and 49.2%, respectively, showing a rise of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with the production index reaching the critical point [3] - Small enterprises showed a significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up by 2.0 percentage points, marking a six-month high, while large enterprises' PMI fell to 49.3% [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The non-manufacturing business activity index decreased to 49.5%, down by 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in the sector's economic conditions [2][5] - The service industry business activity index fell to 49.5%, influenced by the end of holiday effects, with certain sectors like real estate showing lower activity levels [5] - The construction industry business activity index improved to 49.6%, with a market expectation index of 57.9%, indicating increased confidence among construction enterprises [6] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index was recorded at 49.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, combining manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices [7]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.2% in November, indicating a slight improvement in economic conditions [2][3] - Both production index and new orders index improved, reaching 50.0% and 49.2% respectively, with production index crossing the critical point [3] - Small enterprises showed significant recovery with a PMI of 49.1%, up 2.0 percentage points, marking a six-month high [3] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained above the critical point at 50.1%, indicating continued growth in this sector [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting a decline in economic activity [2][5] - The service sector's business activity index dropped to 49.5%, influenced by the end of holiday effects, with some industries like real estate showing weaker activity [5] - The construction sector's business activity index improved to 49.6%, with a business activity expectation index of 57.9%, indicating increased confidence in future growth [5] Group 3: Composite PMI Insights - The composite PMI output index decreased to 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing indices at 50.0% and 49.5% respectively [6]

2025年11月30日国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指数。对此， 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧进行了解读。 11月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，比 上月下降0.6个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体平 稳。 一、制造业采购经理指数小幅回升 11月份，制造业PMI升至49.2%，景气水平有所改善。 11月份制造业采购经理指数小幅回升 非制造业商务活动指数有所回落 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读2025年11月中国采购经理指数 （四）市场预期稳中有升。生产经营活动预期指数为53.1%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，制造业企业对近 期市场发展信心有所增强。从行业看，有色金属冶炼及压延加工、铁路船舶航空航天设备等行业生产经 营活动预期指数均位于57.0%以上较高景气区间，相关企业对行业发展更为乐观。 二、非制造业商务活动指数有所回落 11月份，非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，非制造业景气水平有所下降。 （一）服务业 ...

Group 1: CPI Trends - In October, Sichuan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [1][2] - The average CPI from January to October in Sichuan fell by 0.4% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Fresh vegetable and fruit prices increased by 5.7% and 2.2% month-on-month in October, primarily due to seasonal factors and the demand surge during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [2][3] - Pork prices continued to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year drop of 20.2%, attributed to sufficient market supply and the timing of seasonal consumption [3] - Egg prices also fell by 1.3% month-on-month due to temporary oversupply and post-holiday demand drop [4] Group 3: Core CPI Insights - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year in October, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest since February 2023 [4] - Service prices contributed to the core CPI increase, with notable rises in air ticket prices (10.8%), travel agency fees (7.3%), and accommodation costs (3.4%) [4] Group 4: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Sichuan fell by 2.5% year-on-year in October, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%, reflecting a shift from previous increases [7] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a month-on-month price drop of 0.5%, while electricity and heat production prices decreased by 1.5% month-on-month [7] - Despite the overall decline, some industries, such as computer manufacturing and non-ferrous metal processing, showed signs of price recovery [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - For the fourth quarter, the PPI is expected to continue operating at low levels, but the rate of decline may narrow due to improved market demand and ongoing policy support [8] - The "anti-involution" policies are positively impacting certain industries, leading to a reduction in price declines in sectors like coal and metal processing [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling after the National Day holiday, with the market expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4][45][46]. - The official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, still below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased slightly, and different industries showed varying degrees of prosperity [10][27]. - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, domestic tourism and consumption increased, while the year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and the agricultural product wholesale price was relatively low year - on - year [33][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Market - **Treasury Bond Futures Performance**: After the National Day holiday, Treasury bond futures rose on Thursday and fell on Friday. The 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% for the week, the 10 - year rose 0.09%, the 5 - year was flat, and the 2 - year fell 0.02% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yield Curve**: Compared with September 30, the 2 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields rose slightly on October 10, while the 10 - year yield decreased slightly, and the 5 - year yield remained unchanged [7]. Manufacturing PMI - **Overall PMI**: In September, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Large enterprises continued to expand slightly, medium - sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline in small - enterprise sentiment narrowed [10]. - **Production and Demand**: The production index was 51.9%, indicating accelerated expansion. The new order index was 49.7%, showing improved demand. Some industries such as automobile manufacturing had rapid production and demand release, while others were below the critical point. The procurement volume index rose to 51.6% [13]. - **Price Index**: The raw material purchase price index was 53.2%, and the ex - factory price index was 48.2%. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined, which may suppress corporate profits. It is expected that the year - on - year decline of PPI in September will narrow [16]. - **Export and Inventory**: The new export order index was 47.8%, and the import index was 48.1%, both showing an increase. The raw material and finished - product inventory indexes increased. The cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits from January to August was 7.4% [19][22]. - **Business Expectation**: The employment index and the production and business activity expectation index increased slightly, indicating that enterprises' expectations for future prosperity improved slightly [25]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - **Overall Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, slightly lower than the previous value. The construction industry index was 49.3%, and the service industry index was 50.1% [27]. - **Construction Industry**: The new order index, employment index, and business activity expectation index all showed some changes, with the overall prosperity slightly rising but still weak [29]. - **Service Industry**: The new order index decreased, the employment index remained unchanged, and the business activity expectation index decreased slightly. The input price index and the sales price index both declined [31]. Other Economic Data - **Holiday Consumption**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists and total tourism spending increased. The daily average sales revenue of national consumption - related industries increased by 4.5% year - on - year, with service consumption growing faster [33]. - **Commercial Housing Transactions**: The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and it is expected that the decline in the fourth quarter may exceed that in the third quarter [36]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: In early October, the agricultural product wholesale price fluctuated narrowly, and it is expected that the year - on - year decline will narrow significantly in the next two months [39]. - **Funding Rate**: After the National Day holiday, the overnight funding rate fell to a low level. The central bank carried out a 1100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain market liquidity [43].