2025 年 04 月 20 日 天工 Ultra 夺得首次人形机器人马拉松冠军， 2025 上海车展建议关注主机厂新品 —汽车行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 汽车(申万) -13.8 0.3 17.3 沪深 300 -5.1 -1.5 6.5 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《汽车行业周报：首个人形机器 人马拉松即将开跑，双新政策推动 乘用车 3 月零售增长强劲》2025- 04-13 2、《汽车行业点评报告：美国加征 汽车关税，对中国汽车产业影响有 限》2025-04-11 3、《汽车行业周报：Optimus 下一 代执行器即将发布，自主车企 3 月 销量表现亮眼》2025-04-06 ▌首个人形机器人马拉松顺利完赛，关注机器人核 心环节投资机会 全球首个"人机共跑"半程马拉松在京完赛，天工 Ultra 夺 冠。4 月 19 日，全球首次"人机共跑"半程马拉松在北京成功 举办，标志着人形机器人技术取 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汽车行业：AI 赋能汽车系列 人形机器人领域：逻辑比事实更重要 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-03-12 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -14% -3% 8% 18% 29% 40% 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 12/24 03/25 汽车 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]闫俊刚 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260516010001 | | 021-38003682 | | yanjungang@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 陈飞彤 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524040002 | | 021-38003726 | | gfchenfeitong@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 纪成炜 | | SAC 执证号：S0260518060001 | | SFC CE No. BOI548 | | 021-38003594 | | jicheng ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The humanoid robot industry is on the verge of mass production, with significant advancements expected in 2024, marking a pivotal year for the sector [7][13] - Automotive companies are accelerating their entry into the humanoid robot market, leveraging their existing supply chain advantages and expertise in AI and automation [7][41] - Investment opportunities are identified in companies with strong overlaps in existing automotive business and humanoid robot capabilities, particularly in the midstream supply chain [7][55] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots Overview - Major global players in the humanoid robot sector are making significant progress, with many products entering pilot testing phases in 2024 [13] - Humanoid robots consist of five main modules, with the joint components representing a significant cost portion [16][19] - The estimated BOM cost for humanoid robots is approximately 316,200 CNY per unit, with joint components accounting for about 50% of the total cost [22][31] Automotive Sector - Automotive companies are uniquely positioned to commercialize humanoid robots due to their existing supply chains and expertise in AI from autonomous driving research [41][42] - The demand for humanoid robots in automotive manufacturing is driven by the need for automation in complex assembly processes that currently rely heavily on human labor [41][42] Parts Suppliers - Automotive parts suppliers are encouraged to explore humanoid robot business opportunities, particularly those with strong customer overlaps and technological synergies [53] - Companies such as Top Group, Silver Wheel, and Aikodi are highlighted as having potential advantages in expanding into the humanoid robot market [55]

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the automotive industry, specifically highlighting the performance and outlook of the company, Seres, in 2025, which is expected to be the strongest product cycle year in history [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Product Cycle and Market Share**: In 2025, high-end product planning is expected to increase by 8% to 14%. Strong domestic brands are anticipated to gain market share, while joint venture brands may drop below 20% market share [2][4]. - **Profitability of New Energy Vehicles**: New energy and emerging companies are projected to achieve quarterly profitability with monthly sales between 20,000 to 40,000 units [2][4]. - **Technological Advancements**: The automotive industry's technological attributes are significantly enhanced in 2025, particularly in autonomous driving and robotics. L3 level autonomous vehicles are expected to emerge, leading to an increase in vehicle stock valuations [2][5][6]. - **Valuation Projections**: The valuation of automotive stocks is expected to rise, with P/E ratios potentially reaching 25 times or higher. Price-to-sales (P/S) ratios are also expected to exceed the previous range of 1 to 2 times due to strengthened technological attributes [2][6]. - **Seres Financial Outlook**: Seres is projected to achieve a profit of approximately 12 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to a P/E of 15 times. The market capitalization is considered to have a solid bottom at 180 billion yuan, with a difficult-to-break position at 780 billion yuan [2][7]. - **M8 Model Performance**: The pre-sale price of the Seres M8 model is 368,000 yuan, exceeding expectations, with 28,000 orders received within 12 hours. Monthly sales are expected to reach at least 15,000 units, indicating potential for high profitability [2][7][9]. - **Sales Recovery of Other Models**: After price reductions and enhancements, the M5 model's monthly sales are expected to recover from less than 2,000 units to between 3,500 and 5,000 units. The M9 model, equipped with more new technologies, is projected to increase sales from currently less than 10,000 units to over 12,000 units [2][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Recommendation**: The company maintains a strong recommendation for Seres, with a target market capitalization of 300 billion yuan, indicating significant upside potential relative to current valuations [3][9]. - **Catalysts for Growth**: Recent catalysts for Seres include the upcoming launches of the M5 and M9 models, as well as the impressive pre-sale performance of the M8 model, which is expected to become a high-profit flagship product [8][9]. - **Potential in Robotics**: Although not officially announced, there is speculation that Seres may enter the robotics field, leveraging the strong technological synergies between automotive and robotics industries [7].

奇瑞向港交所递表，计划 20 年的上市终于要实现了。 在奇瑞汽车 2004 年第一次公布上市计划的 20 年后，这家大型传统车企的上市终于有明确进度。它 也是中国整车制造企业中为数不多尚未上市的一家。今年 2 月，奇瑞汽车董事长尹同跃说，2025 年奇瑞高质量上市是首要任务 OpenAI 发布 GPT-4.5，更聪明但也更贵了。 北京时间今日凌晨，OpenAI 再次用小型直播的方式发布了新模型 GPT-4.5，它拥有 1 万亿激活参 数，训练数据量高达 120 万亿 tokens，知识库更广泛，支持搜索、分析图片与协作编程，能处理的 任务更多，但在特定任务上不如一些推理模型。新模型主要提高了 "情商"，降低了幻觉。但 GPT- 4.5 又涨价了，每百万 Tokens 价格为 75 美元，比 GPT-4o 贵了 30 倍，比 DeepSeek 淡季折扣价格 贵 1000 多倍。 CEO 奥尔特曼在医院照顾刚出生的孩子而没有出席发布会，他在晚些时候更新社媒，称 OpenAI 的 GPU 目前已经用完了，将在下周为 GPT-4.5 增加数万块 GPU。GPT 4.5 目前已对 Pro 用户开放，下 周开始下周将向 ...