有色金属日报 2025-9-8 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 铝 周五铝价冲高回落，伦铝收涨 0.48%至 2602 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 20665 元/吨。周五沪铝加 权合约持仓量减少 1.1 至 53.4 万手，期货仓单增加至 6.0 万吨。根据 SMM 统计，国内三地铝锭库 存录得 46.5 万吨，环比减少 0.4 万吨，佛山、无锡两地铝棒库存录得 9.1 万吨，环比减少 0.5 万 吨，周五铝棒 ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting analyzes the market status and investment prospects of the electrolytic copper foil industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Price Trends - As of mid-August 2025, the market price of electrolytic copper (1) reached 79,177.5 yuan per ton, marking an 8.8% year-on-year increase and a 0.94% month-on-month increase [1] - The price of electrolytic copper (1) in mid-August 2025 is the highest recorded for the same period in the past five years [1]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-03 宏观因素推动锌价上涨 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为14.98美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日50元/吨至22150元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-70元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日40元/吨至22140元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-80元/吨；天津锌 现货价较前一交易日50元/吨至22140元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-80元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-02沪锌主力合约开于22175元/吨，收于22325元/吨，较前一交易日130元/吨，全天交易日成交 125688手，全天交易日持仓107662手，日内价格最高点达到22380元/吨，最低点达到22165元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-09-02，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为14.63万吨，较上期变化0.18万吨。截止2025-09-02，LME 锌库存为55600吨，较上一交易日变化-275吨。 市场分析 宏观因素叠加海外库存持续下滑支撑锌价上涨，但消费端难以跟随，现货成交持续冷清，现货贴水难修复。国内 基本面依旧偏弱势，虽然国产矿TC难涨，受甚至可能小幅回落，但冶炼利润犹存，国内供给压 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A-share strategy suggests short-term oscillation and long-term buying on dips [13] - Treasury bond futures recommend a curve steepening strategy for a stable approach and short-term buying on dips for an aggressive one [14] - Black commodities are expected to have limited short-term adjustment space and maintain a mid-term oscillating market [16][17] - For non-ferrous metals and new materials, different metals have different outlooks, such as short-term high-level oscillation for Shanghai Aluminum and mid-term shorting on rallies for Alumina [22] - In the agricultural product sector, different products like cotton, sugar, and eggs have their own trading suggestions based on supply and demand [28][31][34] - Energy and chemical products also vary, with crude oil likely to turn into a supply - exceeding - demand situation and suggesting shorting on rallies [41][42] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro News - China and Russia strengthen cooperation, with China implementing a visa - free policy for Russia from September 15, 2025, to September 14, 2026 [9] - The central bank's MLF had a net injection of 300 billion yuan in August, while PSL had a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan [9] - A - share margin trading balance reached 2.296991 trillion yuan as of September 1, breaking the historical peak, with a cumulative increase of over 26% since June 23 [10] - The US ISM manufacturing index in August was 48.7, lower than the expected 49, and the output index fell into the contraction range [10] - The Eurozone's CPI in August increased by 2.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI slightly declined to 2.3% [11] Macro Finance Strategy - Short - term A - shares may oscillate, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. On September 2, A - shares adjusted, with over 4000 stocks falling, and the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.45% [13] Treasury Bond Futures - A stable strategy is to continue with the curve steepening strategy, and an aggressive one is to consider short - term buying on dips. The bond market reacted calmly to the slightly improved PMI data in August [14] Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Supply policies have limited impact on steel supply and market conditions. The market may experience a "peak season without a boom" due to limited downstream demand [15][16] Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to oscillate at high levels in the short term. Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also factors pressuring prices [18] Ferroalloys - Silicon iron 10 contract has the possibility of premium repair, while manganese silicon is mainly shorted on rallies in the medium - long term [19] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass is currently under observation [20] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and Alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies in the medium term [22] Shanghai Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate downward due to increasing supply and weak demand [23] Lithium Carbonate - It is expected to operate weakly and oscillate in the short term [24] Industrial Silicon - It will continue to oscillate with limited downward adjustment space, and the复产 progress of Xinjiang's leading manufacturers is the core contradiction [24][25] Polysilicon - Policy expectations will continue to affect the market, and there is a contradiction between policy expectations and fundamental over - supply [26] Agricultural Products Cotton - Short - term observation is advisable, and it is recommended to be short on rallies in the long term [28] Sugar - It is recommended to take a short - biased approach due to expected supply increases [31] Eggs - Consider short - term long positions on the 12 - 01 contract and maintain a reverse arbitrage logic [34] Apples - Buy on dips or use a long 10 short 01 positive arbitrage combination [35] Corn - Short the 01 contract on rallies [37] Red Dates - Observe the market [38] Pigs - Short near - month contracts on rallies and consider long positions on the 01 contract at low levels [38] Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - It may turn into a supply - exceeding - demand situation, and shorting on rallies can be considered [41][42] Fuel Oil - Its price will follow crude oil, and the short - term operating range of crude oil is estimated to be between $65 and $70 [42] Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly due to supply pressure [43] Rubber - Consider buying on dips and be cautious when chasing high prices [44] Methanol - It may continue to oscillate weakly, but rumors of gas restrictions in Iran may cause disturbances. Short positions can be reduced [45] Caustic Soda - Maintain a long - term long position after the short - term trading rhythm [46] Asphalt - It follows crude oil and is stronger than crude oil. The short - term operating range of crude oil is estimated to be between $65 and $70 [48] Polyester Industry Chain - Temporarily observe the market for unilateral operations and consider PX positive arbitrage opportunities [49] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - It is recommended to maintain a long - term short - biased view [49] Pulp - Observe whether port de - stocking continues and the spot transaction and demand after Chenming's resumption of production [50] Logs - Observe the market in the short term [50] Urea - Observe the market and consider shorting when the futures price approaches the policy - limited price [51] Synthetic Rubber - Look for low - buying opportunities and be cautious when chasing high prices [52]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant presence of Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) in the A-share market, with a focus on their holdings and changes in positions as of mid-2025, indicating potential investment opportunities in specific sectors and companies [2][4]. QFII Holdings Overview - As of August 26, 2025, 3,072 A-share companies have disclosed their mid-year reports, with 663 companies having QFII among their top ten shareholders, totaling 3.278 billion shares valued at 52.515 billion yuan [4][11]. - QFII has newly entered as a top ten shareholder in 374 stocks during the second quarter, with increased holdings in another 157 stocks compared to the previous quarter [5][6]. Top QFII Holdings - The top QFII holdings include: - Shengyi Technology: 31,676.13 million shares valued at 9.550 billion yuan - Zijin Mining: 17,346.42 million shares valued at 3.383 billion yuan - Ninebot Company: 1,974.93 million shares valued at 116.856 million yuan [5][8]. Sector Analysis - QFII's holdings are concentrated in the following sectors: - Electronics: 12.862 billion yuan - Non-ferrous metals: 5.150 billion yuan - Machinery: 4.596 billion yuan [11]. - The top three sectors by QFII holdings are: - Electronics: 51,263.11 million shares valued at 1.286 billion yuan - Non-ferrous metals: 27,076.67 million shares valued at 514.976 million yuan - Machinery: 28,786.26 million shares valued at 459.616 million yuan [11]. Notable Increases in Holdings - The stocks with the largest increases in QFII holdings include: - Giant Star Technology: Increased by 15.7709 million shares - Alloy Investment: Increased by 12.0745 million shares - New Power Financial: Increased by 11.8305 million shares [6][7]. Institutional Holdings Ranking - The top institutional holders by market value include: - Hong Kong Wei Hua Electronics: 8.895 billion yuan - Abu Dhabi Investment Authority: 8.742 billion yuan - Barclays Bank: 7.124 billion yuan [13][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the announcement made by Hanrui Cobalt Industry regarding its board meeting and the review of its 2025 semi-annual report [1] - For the year 2024, Hanrui Cobalt's revenue composition is as follows: 96.19% from the non-ferrous metal industry, 2.73% from new energy battery materials, and 1.07% from other businesses [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The prices of non - ferrous metals are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand changes, policy expectations, and macro - economic indicators. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - **Market sentiment and fundamentals**: Market sentiment was affected by actual economic data. Domestic refined copper output in August will remain at a record level, and the impact of maintenance in September and October may increase. The production of recycled copper is restricted, and the social inventory of SHFE copper has decreased. However, except for copper foil orders in power grids and integrated circuits, the market is mainly affected by seasonal factors [1]. - **Price trend**: There may be resistance when the price rises again. First, pay attention to the resistance at the upper level, with the focus in the range of 79,600 - 80,000 yuan. Notice the opportunity to buy put options at 82,000 yuan for the 2510 contract [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The price of alumina is in a high - level range historically, and the industry inventory continues to increase. The spot trading is weak, but the cost support limits the downward space. High - selling and low - buying are recommended in the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is stable at 4,000 tons, with a small amount of production resuming in Guizhou and Guangxi. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased, and the exports of aluminum products have changed. The social inventory of aluminum has decreased, and the processing fee has remained stable. The price of SHFE aluminum may be under pressure in the 20,500 - 21,000 yuan area [1]. Lead - **Price trend**: Last week, the price was mainly driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand. The market showed a resonance of spot and futures. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - **Market situation**: The inventory of zinc is at a high level, and the 0 - 3 month backwardation is large. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as transportation and consumption policies. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Stainless steel**: The destocking of stainless steel has slowed down. New tariff regulations may impact exports. The inventory is at a certain level, and it is recommended to actively intervene in short - selling [1]. Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has shown a certain volatility. The supply of domestic tin mines is tight, and the consumption shows seasonal characteristics. The inventory has decreased, and the price center of gravity may rise. The price is expected to be in the range of 265,000 - 280,000 yuan, and the high - level area is above 275,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The market sentiment is uncertain, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on the price. A long - biased thinking is recommended with good risk control [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price is under pressure at the 9,000 yuan/ton level. The supply and demand both increase, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 9,000 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The policy has not met expectations, and the market will continue to fluctuate [1]. Recommended Strategies - Hold the high - short strategy for SHFE aluminum with a stop - loss at 21,000 yuan/ton [1]. - Buy put options for SHFE copper 2500 contract. Grasp the opportunity of put options [1]. - Allocate long positions for the silver 2512 contract, with a target price of 1050 and a stop - loss of 910% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The copper price showed a downward trend today, with the trading volume slightly decreasing. On the macro - level, the rebound of the US dollar index and the cooling of the domestic macro - atmosphere were negative factors for the copper price. On the industrial side, as the peak season approached in China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased, which supported the copper price. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 79,000 yuan mark [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fluctuated within a narrow range today, with the trading volume slightly increasing. On the macro - level, the domestic macro - atmosphere cooled, leading to a weak performance of the non - ferrous metal sector. On the industrial side, the continuous accumulation of electrolytic aluminum inventory was negative for the aluminum price. However, as the industrial peak season approached, industrial support might continue to strengthen. It was expected that the aluminum price would fluctuate [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated within a narrow range above 120,000 yuan today, with the trading volume slightly increasing. The cooling of the domestic atmosphere had little impact on nickel. On the industrial side, the trading of nickel ore was fair, and the ore price remained stable. The continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventory and refined nickel inventory suppressed the nickel price. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 26, some copper cable enterprises reported that after the copper price soared above 79,500 yuan/ton yesterday and remained at a high level, the order - receiving capacity of terminal downstream significantly weakened, the industry's consumption side showed a weak trend, and the overall order - receiving rhythm slowed down. On August 25, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 24,200 tons compared with the 18th and a decrease of 9,700 tons compared with the 21st [9]. - **Aluminum**: According to SMM statistics, on August 26, the daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 32,373 tons, an increase of 405 tons compared with the previous trading day and an increase of 914 tons compared with last Tuesday (August 19). On August 25, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 603,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared with the 18th and an increase of 24,000 tons compared with the 21st [10]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 120,000 - 122,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provided charts including copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report provided charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The report provided charts including nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, and LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio [37][41][45].

Group 1 - Company announced the convening of the ninth board meeting on August 21, 2025, in Kunming, Yunnan, to review the semi-annual report for 2025 [1] - For the year 2024, the company's revenue composition shows that the non-ferrous metal industry accounts for 99.58%, while other businesses account for 0.42% [1] - As of the report date, the company's market capitalization is 32.1 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The company operates primarily in the non-ferrous metal sector, indicating a strong focus on this industry [1]

Group 1: Copper - The current macroeconomic environment is cautious, with a potential increase in copper imports to supplement domestic supply after the end of the siphoning effect in the U.S. [1] - Short-term supply of copper is expected to remain loose, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by essential demand [1] - Copper prices are projected to decline, with a reference range of 77,800-78,800 CNY/ton for spot prices and 9,600-9,800 USD/ton for LME copper [1] Group 2: Aluminum - Domestic spot aluminum prices have slightly decreased, averaging 20,602 CNY, with a decline of 0.35% [1] - The macroeconomic outlook is influenced by U.S.-Russia talks, Federal Reserve dynamics, and adjustments in U.S. tariffs, leading to a generally mild market sentiment [1] - The basic supply-demand structure is showing slight improvement, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation, and aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly next week, averaging around 20,700 CNY [1] Group 3: Lead - Lead prices are experiencing a weak fluctuation, with current spot prices expected to focus on a range of 16,600-16,800 CNY/ton [1] - The consumption peak in August has not materialized, leading to weak domestic demand and low-price procurement by downstream buyers [1] - The increase in overseas lead ingot inventories is putting additional pressure on lead prices [1] Group 4: Zinc - The macroeconomic news is limited, and demand remains weak, leading to increased market risk aversion [2] - Domestic inventories are continuing to accumulate, which is negatively impacting prices, while terminal order recovery is not yet evident [2] - Zinc prices are expected to continue fluctuating, with a focus on a range of 22,000-22,800 CNY [2] Group 5: Tin - Electrolytic tin prices have been fluctuating downwards, influenced by tariff uncertainties and fluctuating expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - Domestic imports of tin concentrate decreased in July, with supply tightening providing some support for tin prices [2] - Overall trading activity in the tin market is subdued, with prices expected to maintain a range of 26,000-27,500 CNY [2] Group 6: Nickel - The average spot nickel price this week was 121,635 CNY/ton, down by 1,815 CNY, reflecting a decline of 1.47% [2] - Nickel prices are trending weakly, with no improvement in transaction opportunities and a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market [2] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, with expectations of limited price fluctuations next week, focusing on a range of 118,000-123,000 CNY [2]