Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper price rebounds due to overseas equity market recovery, mine - end production cut concerns, but upward height is limited in the off - season [1]. - Aluminum price fluctuates, with a short - term trend of weakening oscillation due to inventory accumulation and uncertain trade situation [3]. - Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. - Zinc price has an increased risk of decline due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. - Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term due to the strengthening of the resumption of production in Myanmar and the weak supply - demand situation [6][7]. - Nickel price may decline as the macro - atmosphere cools, demand is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to fall [8]. - Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom due to the expected improvement in the supply - demand relationship, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed [10]. - Alumina price may face an over - capacity situation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. - Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.78% to $9708/ton, Shanghai copper main contract reached 78370 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2175 tons to 139575 tons, domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 16000 tons [1]. - Price Outlook: In the current off - season, the upward space of copper price is limited, with the Shanghai copper main contract running between 77600 - 79000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9600 - 9800 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.06% to $2570/ton, Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 20440 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated, LME aluminum inventory increased by 925 tons to 463725 tons [3][18]. - Price Outlook: Aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract running between 20350 - 20600 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2540 - 2600 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: Shanghai lead index rose 0.09% to 16751 yuan/ton, LME lead 3S rose to $1974.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased to 6.63 tons, LME lead inventory was 27.53 tons [4]. - Price Outlook: Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. Zinc - Price: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.32% to 22249 yuan/ton, LME zinc 3S fell to $2734.5/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to accumulate to 10.73 tons, LME zinc inventory was 97000 tons [5][18]. - Production: In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc production was 60.28 tons, and it is expected to reach 62.15 tons in August [5]. - Price Outlook: The risk of zinc price decline increases due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. Tin - Price: On August 4, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 266590 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [6]. - Supply - Demand: Supply is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term smelting faces raw material pressure; domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [6][7]. - Price Outlook: Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton and LME tin price between 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel price rebounded slightly, nickel iron price was stable after rising, and refined nickel price rebounded slightly with flat trading [8]. - Market Situation: Macro - atmosphere cools, stainless steel price falls, and nickel ore price is expected to decline [8]. - Price Outlook: Nickel price is expected to decline, with the Shanghai nickel main contract between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index was 68832 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the LC2509 contract closed at 68920 yuan, also unchanged [10]. - Market Situation: The fundamental improvement depends on the actual reduction of the mine end, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve before the peak season [10]. - Price Outlook: Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract between 66800 - 70900 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.25% to 3224 yuan/ton, overseas FOB price fell to $376/ton, and the import window was closed [12]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipt was 0.66 tons, remaining at a historical low [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 between 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12925 yuan/ton, up 0.66%, and spot prices in some regions increased [14]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.66%, but 300 - series inventory increased by 1.00%, and the supply of 316L was tight [14]. - Price Outlook: Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract rose 0.05% to 19930 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions decreased [16]. - Price Outlook: Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected exclusion of refined copper from the U.S. tariff list led to a significant drop in COMEX prices, as hedge funds sold off their positions anticipating losses [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 30, the U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on imported copper products, but refined copper was not included, minimizing the impact on domestic importers and processors [3][4]. - The COMEX price for refined copper fell sharply, with the main contract dropping 20% to approximately $4.503 per pound (around $9,900 per ton), aligning more closely with LME prices [4]. - Hedge funds had previously increased their long positions, expecting further price increases, but were forced to sell off as the tariff announcement contradicted their expectations [4][5]. Group 2: Price Discrepancies and Trading Strategies - Prior to the tariff announcement, there was a price gap of about $2,600 per ton between U.S. and international prices, which was expected to widen with the new tariffs [5]. - Traders had been engaging in "tariff trading," importing refined copper from countries like South Korea and Taiwan to sell at higher prices in the U.S., but the exclusion of refined copper from tariffs undermined this strategy [5]. - The increase in U.S. copper inventories has led to a situation where domestic prices are now lower than LME prices, reflecting the market's adjustment to the new tariff landscape [5][6]. Group 3: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global copper market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with a reported excess of 272,000 tons from January to May [6]. - Concerns about China's economic outlook, as the largest consumer of copper, are contributing to downward pressure on demand [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's monetary policy is neutral to hawkish, but the US copper tariff falling short of expectations eases the pressure on copper prices. The tight supply of copper raw materials persists, and short - term supply disruptions have increased. It is expected that copper prices will gradually stabilize in the short term [1]. - The boost from Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting to market sentiment is limited. The aluminum price continues to fluctuate. The relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory supports the aluminum price, but the price rebound will be limited due to the off - season downstream and weak export demand [3]. - The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened. The price of lead - acid batteries has stopped falling and stabilized, and the downstream purchasing is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on smelters expands, both the single - side price and the spread may strengthen [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as the domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase, and inventories are rising. In the short term, there are uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate decision, and there are still structural risks in the overseas market [6]. - Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term. Due to the strengthened expectation of resuming production in Myanmar, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. - The short - term macro - atmosphere has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and demand is weak. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline, driving down the price center of the industrial chain [9]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, but there is high uncertainty due to capital games. Speculative funds are advised to wait and see cautiously [11][12]. - The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - Stainless steel mills have a firm short - term price - holding policy, but if terminal demand cannot absorb the increased supply, traders may cut prices to reduce inventory. Attention should be paid to the real recovery of terminal demand [16]. - The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Due to the large difference between futures and spot prices, the upward pressure on prices is expected to be large [18]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.74% to $9730/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78700 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the SHFE copper main contract is 78200 - 79800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9680 - 9920 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 9225 to 136850 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 20000 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic spot copper import was at a loss of about 300 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 980 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage remained low [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose slightly by 0.08% to $2608/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20615 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract is 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2580 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 0.6 million to 609000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 51000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.65 to 388500 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory in Foshan and Wuxi decreased by 0.2 to 87000 tons [3]. - **Market**: The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.4 to 460000 tons, and the spot in the East China market was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures [3]. Lead - **Price**: The SHFE lead index closed down 0.06% to 16892 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S remained flat at $2016/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 61900 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 64800 tons [4]. - **Market**: The price difference between refined and scrap lead was at par. The start - up rate of primary lead decreased slightly, and that of recycled lead increased from a low level [4]. Zinc - **Price**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.11% to 22676 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S remained flat at $2806/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 15200 tons, and domestic social inventory continued to increase to 103700 tons [6]. - **Market**: The import zinc concentrate TC index rose significantly. The concentration of long - positions in the LME zinc market is high, and there are still structural risks overseas [6]. Tin - **Price**: On July 30, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 267960 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The short - term expected operating range for domestic tin prices is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 96 to 7433 tons, and LME inventory increased by 90 to 1945 tons [7]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, but the smelting end is still under raw material pressure. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, while overseas demand is strong due to AI computing power [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The price of high - nickel iron remained stable, and the refined nickel spot trading was fair [9]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text. - **Market**: The short - term macro - atmosphere has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and it is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat at 71832 yuan. The LC2509 contract closed at 70600 yuan, down 0.34%. The expected operating range for the LC2509 contract is 68600 - 73200 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Inventory**: No relevant inventory data provided. - **Market**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits for some lithium carbonate contracts. There is high uncertainty due to capital games [11]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 30, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.73% to 3314 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.24 to 0.66 million tons, still at a historical low [14]. - **Market**: The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12920 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi increased slightly [16]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased by 62 to 103234 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.54% to 1118600 tons [16]. - **Market**: Steel mills have a firm short - term price - holding policy, and the supply in August is expected to increase [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.25% to 20070 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased slightly to 31000 tons [18]. - **Market**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand, and the price is under upward pressure [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The non - ferrous metals sector continued the general rebound trend from last weekend, with its performance strengthening compared to the previous period. The impact of trade negotiations and tariffs was temporarily alleviated. The market was focusing on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data was resilient, and the Fed's decision - making independence led to changes in interest - rate cut expectations. In China, policies were introduced to promote stable growth in key industrial sectors, and major infrastructure projects were launched, which drove the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend, but the sustainability was average. The non - ferrous metals market showed an oscillatory and strengthening trend. Future operations should be cautiously bullish in the short - term, but avoid over - chasing the rise [11][12]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties had different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper was expected to show a situation of weak supply and strong demand, with inventory depletion likely to continue; zinc was in a state of increasing supply and weak demand, with an oscillatory and strengthening trend in the short - term and a bearish outlook in the medium - term; aluminum and its related products in the industry had different trends in cost, supply, and demand, and corresponding investment strategies were recommended [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector rebounded. Trade and tariff impacts were temporarily alleviated. The market focused on interest - rate cut expectations. China's policies promoted industrial growth, driving the non - ferrous metals sector. The sustainability of the upward trend was limited. Future operations should be short - term cautiously bullish, and attention should be paid to the resonance between supply - demand fundamentals and the macro - environment [11][12]. - **Variety - Specific Analysis** - **Copper**: Social inventory decreased, supply was expected to decline, and demand was expected to increase. It was expected to stop falling and rebound, with support at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and resistance at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. The strategy was to buy on dips [3][14]. - **Zinc**: Supply increased, demand was weak, but it was oscillatory and strengthening in the short - term. Support was at 21600 - 21800 yuan/ton, resistance was at 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton. Short - term long positions were recommended, and short positions were considered in the medium - term [4][14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: In the aluminum industry chain, different products had different trends in cost, supply, and demand. For example, for aluminum, 09 contract had resistance at 21000 - 21200 yuan/ton and support at 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton; for alumina, 09 contract had resistance at 3700 - 3900 yuan/ton and support at 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton. Strategies such as reducing long positions and buying out - of - the - money put options were recommended [5][16]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals were weak in both supply and demand. It was recommended to wait and see, reduce long positions, with resistance at 270000 - 290000 yuan/ton and support at 250000 - 255000 yuan/ton. Buying out - of - the - money put options was considered [6]. - **Lead**: It followed the sector to rebound and then consolidated. Supply was expected to increase, and demand needed to be further restored. Support was at 16800 - 17000 yuan/ton, resistance was at 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton. Selling out - of - the - money put options on dips was recommended [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel had an overall oversupply situation, with short - term bullish and medium - term bearish trends. Stainless steel had a situation of weak supply and demand, with support at 12300 - 12400 yuan/ton and resistance at 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton [8][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures were provided. For example, copper closed at 79590 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; zinc closed at 22975 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector was presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties such as polysilicon, silver, gold, zinc, etc [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals were provided, such as the Yangtze River spot price of copper was 79930 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the Yangtze River spot average price of 0 zinc was 22830 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [21][23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [24][28][30][35][41][44][49][56]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including the comparison of domestic and foreign price ratios, basis differences, and price differences between different contract months of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [57][61][62][66][69][71]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to options of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [75][78][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment is positive due to the decline in US Treasury yields and expectations of Fed rate - cuts, along with the upcoming release of growth - stabilization plans for key industries in China. However, the rebound of copper prices is expected to be limited by factors such as the approaching US copper tariff implementation time and the current off - season for downstream demand [1]. - Aluminum prices continue to rise driven by the strong sentiment in the black - series commodities market, but the increase may be mainly a follow - up movement considering the potential inventory accumulation in the context of the off - season and weak export demand [3]. - Lead prices are expected to be weak as the supply of lead ingots remains relatively loose, and the consumption expectation is suppressed by anti - dumping tariffs [4]. - Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and increasing inventory, but may show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend influenced by factors such as the bullish market sentiment and potential structural risks [6]. - Tin's overall fundamentals are weak due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's tin mine复产 and weak demand, and short - term observation is recommended [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to decline further as the demand is weak, and the surplus situation is difficult to reverse. Observation is recommended in the short term [8]. - For lithium carbonate, although the fundamental benefits are limited, the price may be affected by market sentiment, and short - term observation is recommended [10]. - Alumina prices may be strong in the short term due to policy expectations and low warehouse receipts, but the over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change this year, and short - term observation is recommended [13]. - Stainless steel prices may rise slightly in the short term due to the positive policy and improved supply - side expectations [15]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices may rise slightly under the influence of a warm macro - environment, but continuous price increases are difficult due to the large futures - spot price difference [17]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market prices: LME copper rose 0.74% to $9867/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79770 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 100 to 122075 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 25000 tons [1]. - Price outlook: The rebound of copper prices is expected to be limited, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 78800 - 80200 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9720 - 9950 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Market prices: LME aluminum rose 0.42% to $2652/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20925 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.55 to 34.9 tons [3]. - Price outlook: Aluminum prices may continue to rise, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20800 - 21050 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2630 - 2680 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: SHFE lead index fell 0.35% to 16922 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2002/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 6.58 tons [4]. - Price outlook: Lead prices are expected to be weak [4]. Zinc - Market prices: SHFE zinc index rose 0.10% to 22928 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S remained at $2845/ton [6]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 9.27 tons [6]. - Price outlook: Zinc prices are bearish in the medium - to - long term but may strengthen in the short term [6]. Tin - Market situation: Supply is under pressure in the short term, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, with the domestic tin price running in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton and LME tin in the range of 31000 - 35000 dollars/ton [7]. Nickel - Market situation: Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, and the industry chain price center may move down. Short - term observation is recommended, with the SHFE nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Market prices: The MMLC index rose 2.91% to 70832 yuan, and the LC2509 contract rose 2.24% to 72880 yuan [10]. - Price outlook: Observation is recommended, with the LC2509 contract running in the range of 71300 - 74800 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - Market prices: The alumina index rose 3.69% to 3481 yuan/ton [13]. - Price outlook: Short - term observation is recommended, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 3100 - 3600 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - Market prices: The stainless steel main contract rose 1.41% to 12905 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 1.69% to 114.78 tons [15]. - Price outlook: Prices may rise slightly in the short term [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market situation: Downstream is in the off - season, and prices may rise slightly but continuous increase is difficult. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price was about 19910 yuan/ton [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Views - Copper prices are expected to have a weak rebound due to factors such as the expected US copper tariff implementation and limited actual demand growth, with the SHFE copper main contract expected to trade between 77,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9,500 - 9,950 dollars/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices may continue to rise driven by low inventory and positive sentiment, but the increase is expected to be limited as the downstream is in the off - season and export demand is weak. The domestic main contract is expected to trade between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2,550 - 2,680 dollars/ton [3]. - Lead prices are expected to be weak as the supply is relatively loose, and the consumption is suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. - Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to be weak in the short term as the supply is low but the demand is also weak, with the domestic tin price expected to trade between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton and LME tin between 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [7]. - Nickel ore prices are expected to decline due to weak demand, and the nickel market is in an oversupply situation, with the short - term SHFE nickel main contract expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [8][9][10]. - Lithium carbonate prices had a significant weekly increase, but the weak reality remains. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is expected to trade between 68,000 - 72,200 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strong in the short term but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 3,000 - 3,500 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless steel prices may rise slightly due to policy and demand support, but the de - stocking pressure of 304 series products is still prominent [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices may rise further due to cost support and positive macro - atmosphere, but may face downward pressure after the increase [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices first declined and then rose, with LME copper rising 1.36% to 9,794 dollars/ton and SHFE copper main contract closing at 79,040 yuan/ton [1]. - Three major exchanges' inventories increased by 21,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 2,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium increased [1]. - The LME market's Cash/3M discount widened, and the domestic basis quotes were differentiated [1]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices declined and then rebounded, with SHFE aluminum main contract falling 0.89% and LME aluminum rising 1.38% to 2,638 dollars/ton [3]. - The SHFE aluminum weighted contract's open interest decreased by 55,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased to 67,000 tons [3]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased to 492,000 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased to 116,000 tons [3]. - The operating rate of major domestic aluminum product enterprises continued to decline [3]. Lead - On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.16% to 16,836 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 3 to 1,977 dollars/ton [4]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was at par, and the price of lead - acid batteries stopped falling and stabilized [4]. - The supply of lead ingots was relatively loose, and both social and enterprise inventories increased [4]. - The consumption of lead ingots was suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.80% to 22,285 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 56.5 to 2,753.5 dollars/ton [6]. - The domestic supply of zinc ore was abundant, and the import zinc concentrate TC index increased significantly [6]. - In June, the domestic refined zinc output increased by 36,000 tons to 585,000 tons, and the supply is expected to continue to increase [6]. - The short - term zinc price may show an oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated narrowly [7]. - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, but domestic smelters still face raw material supply pressure [7]. - The consumption in the off - season was poor, and the order volume of downstream factories was low [7]. - The social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly [7]. Nickel - Nickel ore prices stabilized after a decline, and are expected to continue to decline due to weak demand [8]. - The demand for stainless steel had some support, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction was still large [8]. - The supply of nickel iron may decrease slightly in July, and the over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term [8]. - The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen [9]. - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated around 120,000 yuan/ton, and the market sentiment was cautious [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate had a significant weekly increase, with the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate rising 1,000 yuan on average [12]. - The price of Australian imported lithium concentrate also increased [12]. - The weak reality of lithium carbonate remains, with high production and inventory [12]. Alumina - On July 18, the alumina index rose 1.33% to 3,120 yuan/ton [14]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the import window was closed [14]. - The futures warehouse receipts decreased to a historical low [14]. - The short - term price may be strong, but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year [14]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,725 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot prices in some markets increased, and the raw material prices were stable [17]. - The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 1.69% [17]. - The stainless steel price may rise slightly due to policy and demand support [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, cast aluminum alloy futures prices first declined and then rose, with the AD2511 contract falling 0.28% to 19,875 yuan/ton [19]. - The weighted contract's open interest decreased slightly, and the contract spread was stable [19]. - The spot price was relatively stable, and the production cost increased [19]. - The production volume increased, and the total inventory decreased [19].

Group 1: Accelerating Development in Information and Communication Industry - Accelerate the deployment of 5G-A and ten-gigabit optical networks [1] - Promote the synergy between industrial internet and artificial intelligence [1] - Advance the research and development of 6G technology, focusing on the cultivation of application industry ecosystems for 6G [1] - Gradually open up value-added telecommunications services to foreign investment, supporting more foreign enterprises to participate in pilot projects [1] Group 2: Implementing New Round of Growth Stabilization Actions - A new growth stabilization work plan for industries such as machinery, automotive, and power equipment will be issued soon [2] - Continuous implementation of high-quality development plans for copper, aluminum, and gold industries [2] - Work plans for ten key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials will be released shortly [2] - Focus on structural adjustments, supply optimization, and phasing out outdated production capacity in key industries [2] - Accelerate the implementation of "Artificial Intelligence +" actions, promoting the deployment of large models in key manufacturing sectors [2] - Foster innovation and development in future industries such as humanoid robots, metaverse, and brain-computer interfaces, with a proactive layout in new fields and tracks [2] Group 3: Promoting Intelligent and Green Transformation and Upgrading - A digital transformation implementation plan for the automotive industry will be issued [3] - Implementation plans for digital transformation in machinery and power equipment industries will be executed [3] - Digital transformation plans for textiles, light industry, food, and pharmaceuticals are forthcoming [3] Group 4: Supporting Healthy Development of Small and Medium Enterprises - Special actions will be launched to address the issue of overdue payments to small and medium enterprises [4] - Research and revision of the classification standards for small and medium enterprises will be conducted, facilitating tax and fee policies to benefit small and micro enterprises [4] - The establishment of the second phase of the National Small and Medium Enterprises Development Fund will be promoted, attracting more social capital for early, small, long-term, and hard technology investments [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on July 18, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On July 18, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,010, the LME price was 9,538, and the ratio was 8.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of - 219.86. The domestic three - month price was 77,830, the LME price was 9,597, and the ratio was 8.12 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,120, the LME price was 2,693, and the ratio was 8.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.68, with a profit of - 1,248.97. The domestic three - month price was 22,085, the LME price was 2,696, and the ratio was 6.24 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,570, the LME price was 2,564, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.53, with a profit of - 1,293.96. The domestic three - month price was 20,355, the LME price was 2,567, and the ratio was 7.96 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 118,550, the LME price was 14,787, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 2,413.78 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,625, the LME price was 1,946, and the ratio was 8.58. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, with a profit of - 540.93. The domestic three - month price was 16,905, the LME price was 1,974, and the ratio was 11.19 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 130, - 150, - 190, and - 290 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 492, 882, 1281, and 1680 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 75, 40, 10, and - 35, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 452, and 571 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 60, - 120, - 185, and - 240, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 328, 442, and 557 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, 10, 30, and 105, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 315, 420, and 526 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 580, - 460, - 220, and - 70 [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 450, and the theoretical spread was 5437 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 20 and - 150, and the theoretical spreads were 465 and 878 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 75 and 0, and the theoretical spreads were 186 and 315 (also 172 and 286 in another record) [4][5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 270 and 250, and the theoretical spreads were 216 and 327 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On July 18, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.52, 3.82, 4.60, 0.92, 1.20, and 0.77 respectively, and in London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.53, 3.75, 4.90, 0.94, 1.31, and 0.72 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, down 0.21% to $9,637/ton; SHFE copper main contract slightly declined 0.01% to CNY 77,950/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, with the loss narrowing. The US economic data and Fed's report showed some economic improvement, but the copper market was worried about the global economic outlook. The short - term inventory was accumulating, and the demand was weak due to the off - season. The copper price showed weakness, and its trend was unclear. If the 50% copper tariff became a reality, it would cause short - term high volatility [1]. - Alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The Guinea's policy on bauxite index raised cost concerns. The short - term near - month contracts were expected to remain strong due to factors like low inventory and cost support. The new US tariff was about to be implemented, which might lead to global liquidity tightening. The aluminum ingot inventory accumulation was not smooth, and it was difficult for the price to fall significantly. The aluminum alloy was affected by the off - season [1][2]. - Overnight LME nickel fell 1.48% to $14,990/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.9% to CNY 119,510/ton. The Indonesian nickel mine production plan was announced, and the nickel ore price decreased slightly. The stainless - steel cost support weakened, and the inventory remained high. The demand for nickel in the new - energy industry increased slightly in July. The nickel price was expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to overseas policy changes [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The price of LME and SHFE copper decreased. The US economic data and Fed's report affected the market sentiment. The inventory increased in multiple exchanges, and the demand was weak due to the off - season and trade policies. The price showed weakness, and the trend was unclear [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices fell, while aluminum and aluminum alloy prices rose. The Guinea's policy, domestic market factors, and inventory conditions affected the price trend. The short - term near - month contracts were expected to be strong, and the price was difficult to fall significantly [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The price of LME and Shanghai nickel decreased. The Indonesian nickel mine production plan, nickel ore price, stainless - steel industry situation, and new - energy industry demand affected the nickel price. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of some copper products changed slightly, and the inventory increased in LME, COMEX, and social inventory. The import loss narrowed [3]. - **Lead**: The price of lead products decreased, and the inventory in LME decreased while the inventory in SHFE increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum products changed, and the inventory in LME and SHFE increased, as well as the social inventory of alumina [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of some nickel products increased, and the inventory in LME increased while the inventory in SHFE decreased. The stainless - steel inventory decreased [4]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc products decreased, and the inventory in LME and SHFE increased, as well as the social inventory [5]. - **Tin**: The price of tin products decreased, and the inventory in LME increased while the inventory in SHFE decreased [5]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts showed the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts presented the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts displayed the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts showed the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts presented the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts showed the trends of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a medium - level gold investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many spot leading enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won many awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He provides policy interpretations and writes in - depth reports [46]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and provides policy interpretations [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff news, with high uncertainty in the US employment market, inflation, and retail sales. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the end of the month is limited, and risks need to be vigilant [1]. - Different metals have different market trends and investment strategies. For example, copper prices may show a high - fall trend, aluminum has limited upward space, zinc continues to be short - allocated, lead is expected to be strongly volatile, nickel and stainless steel are under pressure, tin continues to be short - allocated, and some non - ferrous metals such as lithium carbonate and industrial silicon have certain rebound trends [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Variety Copper - Market situation: The CSPT group did not set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate this quarter, with a large contradiction between mining and smelting. The US tariff policy may affect copper prices, and the spread between refined and scrap copper has changed. The LME 3 - month spot premium has turned into a discount of $60. The market is likely to show a high - fall trend [1]. - Investment strategy: Short positions are held. Consider selling 2508 contract call options with an exercise price of 80,000 and buying 2508 contract put options with an exercise price of 76,000 in a 1:2 ratio [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Market situation: The rainy season in Guinea has come, but due to the large increase in domestic bauxite imports and inventory recovery, the market rumors of the resumption of production of Shunda Mining. The operating capacity of alumina has remained at 93.55 million tons, and the industry's total inventory is stable. The demand for aluminum is affected by the traditional off - season, high - cost aluminum, and high - temperature weather. The inventory has increased, and the price has adjusted [1]. - Investment strategy: Hold the short - allocation strategy for Shanghai aluminum [1]. Zinc - Market situation: After the LME zinc rebounded back to the 60 - day moving average last week, the domestic inventory increased, and the upward momentum of Shanghai zinc was insufficient. As a mine - end pricing variety, it continues the short - allocation strategy, and observe the rhythm of short - sellers' second entry [1]. Lead - Market situation: The LME lead fluctuated, and the Shanghai lead stepped back on the key level of 17,000. The market divergence increased. The supply of domestic lead ore is tight, and the supply of lead ingots is restricted by raw materials. The demand is in the off - season, but there is some consumption expectation. The cost provides strong support, and the impact of tariffs is repeated [1]. - Investment strategy: Long positions are held at 17,000 [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market situation: Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level. The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with large inventory, weak demand, and reduced cost support. The price of ferronickel has increased, and the inventory has also increased [1]. - Investment strategy: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short - sellers should beware [1]. Tin - Market situation: The LME tin inventory is around 2,000 tons, providing support for tin prices. The supply in Central Africa has decreased, and domestic processing fees are tight. The domestic downstream has a certain replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. The export of some products has decreased. The domestic tin market continues the previous theme, with high domestic and low external visible inventory [1]. - Investment strategy: Continue the short - allocation strategy. Consider short - selling contracts in the high - level range of 258,000 - 272,000 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Market situation: The trading atmosphere of lithium carbonate has rebounded, with active trading. The spot price of lithium battery has risks, and the procurement is relatively cautious [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market situation: The price of industrial silicon has rebounded, and the demand has increased marginally. The production in Xinjiang has continued to decline, and the marginal increase in Yunnan in July is limited. The inventory has decreased, and the market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Polysilicon - Market situation: The price of polysilicon has broken through 40,000 yuan/ton. The production in July has exceeded the previous range, and the inventory has increased. The production of batteries has continued to decline, and the price is affected by polysilicon [1]. - Investment strategy: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, and policy expectations are the main trading logic [1].