交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口利润为166元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为642.17元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, after the production cut in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but the inventory accumulation pattern remains. The price of the industrial silicon market is mainly affected by the supply - demand pattern and cost support, showing a slight upward trend. The current valuation is low, and with the influence of Xinjiang's environmental protection policy, the market may have room to rise [1][3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation has recently eased. Silicon material enterprises are reducing production to match the off - season demand in the first quarter, which drives up the unit comprehensive cost. The market is affected by both the anti - involution policy and the weak reality. After the establishment of the platform company, the subsequent production and sales restrictions need to be monitored. The market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][6]. Summary by Relevant Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On December 24, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a fluctuating upward trend. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,600 yuan/ton and closed at 8,780 yuan/ton, a change of 145 yuan/ton (1.68%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 213,776 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 23 was 9,175 lots, a change of 156 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton), and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton). The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - **Inventory**: As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a change of - 1.43% from the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 138,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory (including the part not registered as warehouse receipts and the spot warehouse) was 415,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - **Organosilicon**: The quoted price of organosilicon DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. The weekly production of organosilicon fluctuated slightly compared with the previous week. In early December, monomer factories successively reduced production, and the production in December decreased compared with November. The reduction in industrial silicon consumption in December may be around 5,000 tons [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The weekly production of polysilicon was basically stable. The planned production in December was around 114,000 tons, a slight decrease from November, and the change in the demand for industrial silicon was limited [2]. - **Aluminum - Silicon Alloy**: The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The secondary aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that had reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the production - reduction state this week. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate was expected to be mainly stable and weak [2]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation. - **Others**: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On December 24, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated upward, opening at 58,580 yuan/ton and closing at 59,225 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of - 0.91% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 131,603 lots (134,949 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 153,313 lots [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [3]. - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 293,000 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.00%; the silicon wafer inventory was 21.50 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 7.73%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 25,000 tons, a month - on - month change of - 0.40%; the silicon wafer production was 10.67 GW, a month - on - month change of - 12.18% [3]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. - **Others**: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule is decreasing but remains at a high level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8685 - 8875 [3][4][5]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule is continuously decreasing, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 58180 - 60270 [7][8][9][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [3][5]. - Demand side: Last week, the demand was 81,000 tons, a 8% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [3][5]. - Cost side: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has risen during the dry season [3][5]. - Other factors: On December 23, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 420 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory was 553,000 tons, a 1.42% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 192,500 tons, a 2.94% increase; the main port inventory was 138,000 tons, a 1.47% increase. The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions decreased [3][5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week, the polysilicon production was 25,000 tons, a 0.39% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule in December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [7][8]. - Demand side: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 10.67GW, a 12.18% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 215,000 tons, a 7.72% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule in December is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease from the previous month. In November, the cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of cells was 10.06GW, a 6.56% increase. Currently, cell production is in a loss state, and the production schedule in December is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the module production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease from the previous month. The expected module production in December is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, module production is in a profitable state [7][9]. - Cost side: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton [7][9][10]. - Other factors: On December 23, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 6,875 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The weekly inventory was 293,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, at a high level in the same period of history. The MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions increased [7][9][13]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing price: All contracts showed an upward trend, with the 12 - contract having the largest increase of 2.40% [19]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts decreased, with some showing a significant decline [19]. - Other indicators: The registered warehouse receipt number increased by 1.73%, the weekly DMC production decreased by 6.52%, and the daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged [19]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing price: Most contracts showed an upward trend, with the 07 - contract having the largest increase of 0.84% [21]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts showed a certain change, with some increasing and some decreasing [21]. - Other indicators: The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74%, and the weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06%. The monthly module production decreased by 2.49%, and the domestic monthly module inventory decreased by 51.73% [21]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - Price: The prices of various types of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged [19]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 1.43%, the sample enterprise inventory increased by 2.94%, and the main port inventory increased by 1.47% [19]. 3.3.2 Polysilicon - Price: The prices of various types of polysilicon and related products remained mostly unchanged [21]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory remained unchanged at 293,000 tons [21]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance 3.4.1 Industrial Silicon - Weekly supply - demand balance: The production, import, export, and consumption data showed a certain balance situation, with the balance value fluctuating [43]. - Monthly supply - demand balance: From November 2024 to November 2025, the industrial silicon production, consumption, and export data showed different trends, and the supply - demand balance also changed accordingly [46]. 3.4.2 Polysilicon - Monthly supply - demand balance: From October 2024 to October 2025, the supply, import, export, and consumption of polysilicon showed different trends, and the balance value also fluctuated [69]. 3.5 Downstream Industry Trends 3.5.1 Organic Silicon - DMC production and price: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged, the weekly production decreased by 6.52%, and the price remained unchanged [19][49]. - Downstream product prices: The prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remained unchanged [19][51]. - Import - export and inventory: The monthly export and import volumes of DMC showed different trends, and the inventory decreased [54][56]. 3.5.2 Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged, and the import cost and profit showed certain changes [19][58]. - Inventory and production: The monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 8.66%, and the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.09% [19][61]. - Demand: The monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheels are provided [62]. 3.5.3 Polysilicon Downstream - Silicon wafer: The price of silicon wafers remained unchanged, the weekly production increased by 5.74%, the weekly inventory decreased by 22.06%, and the monthly demand showed a certain trend [21][72]. - Cell: The price of cells remained unchanged, the production and actual output showed a certain trend, the external sales factory inventory increased, the export volume showed an upward trend, and the opening rate showed a certain trend [21][75]. - Photovoltaic module: The price of modules showed a certain change, the domestic and European inventories decreased, the monthly production decreased by 2.49%, and the export volume increased by 5.54% [21][78]. - Photovoltaic accessories: The prices and import - export volumes of photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and welding tape showed different trends [81]. - Component cost - profit: The cost and profit of silicon wafers, cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components showed different trends [84]. - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: The new - installed capacity, power generation structure, and new - connected capacity of photovoltaic power plants showed different trends [87].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-23，工业硅期货价格偏震荡走高，主力合约2601开于8600元/吨，最后收于8780元/吨，较前一 日结算变化（145）元/吨，变化（1.68）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓213776手，2025-12-22仓单 总数为9175手，较前一日变化156手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421# 硅在9500-9800（0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。 昆明、黄埔港、西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 SMM统计12月18日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.3万吨，较上周变化-1.43%。其中社会普通仓库13.8 万吨，较上周增加0.2万吨，社会交割仓库41.5万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货库部分）较上周减少1万 吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 24 日 工业硅：逢高做空 多晶硅：加大开仓限制，关注情绪面波动 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,780 | 185 | 415 | -180 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 351,425 | 44,483 | 131,753 | 21,749 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 213,776 | -7,830 | 11,513 | -47,228 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 59,225 | 380 | 625 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 153,313 | -59,967 | -123,635 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 131,603 | ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 点评 22 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 8595 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.52%，持仓 增仓 11733 手至 22.2 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9593 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水扩至 255 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 58845 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.1%，持仓 减仓 4238 手至 13.5 万手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格小幅上调至 52400 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格小幅上调至 52400 元/吨，现货对主力贴 水收至 6445 元/吨。西北厂家新增检修动态，因新产出品被前期套保单锁 定，厂家整体压力不大。年末西北存在进一步环保减产预期，工业硅受减 产和多晶硅提振，短期延续偏强态势。当前多晶硅库存积压和收储消息并 存，期现延续分歧表现。周内厂家大幅提升现货报价，因成交寥寥，部分 咨询网站坚持稳价发布。交易所再度进行限仓，提高最小开仓，限制过热 投机，盘面窄幅回调；但因由于仍无新注册仓单，盘面高升水压力难解。 请务必阅读正 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为080元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为634.77元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

硅年报 2025 年 12 月 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】 1448 号 研究员： 周贵升 从业资格证号： F3036194 投资咨询资格证号： Z0015986 硅年报 2025-12 基本面上看，在当前弱势行情下，工业硅整体开工率处于低位运行，西北 大厂因成本优势开工保持较高水平，同时关注环保天气以及行业自律对开工的 影响，西南地区开工呈现季节性波动，此外一体化龙头企业也保持较高开工， 整体供应压力仍存。需求端，增量较为有限，多晶硅保持高位水平，今年以来 多晶硅企业按行业自律生产，开工率维持 35%左右低位水平，下半年因行业反 内卷价格大幅反弹，叠加西南丰水期开工有所提升，近期多晶硅平台公司落地， 摘要： 整体来看，工业硅方面，目前工业硅仍处于缓慢去化阶段，供应端维持低 位小幅增加，需求端增量有限，因此上方空间有所压制，但下方受成本支撑， 预计工业硅价格维持低位震荡。多晶硅方面，收储平台持续推进，供应水平逐 步贴合需求，光伏装机维持高位震荡，预计盘面维持高位区间震荡，关注光伏 行业反内卷推进情况。 关注：硅企行业自律、光伏收储反内卷政策 未来产能规划将控制在合理区间，而新增光伏装机则受限于新 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, there is no driving force, and the market shows a weak and volatile pattern, but winter environmental protection speculation should be vigilant. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward space of industrial silicon prices is limited, and it is cost - effective to lay out forward contracts for peak seasons at low prices. Also, industrial silicon prices are closely linked to the price fluctuations of related varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving logic of industrial silicon futures price trends will focus on factors such as the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background, supply - side production cuts due to environmental protection constraints or cost increases, and demand - side production cut expectations due to weak terminal shipments. The industry has expectations for eliminating backward production capacity, but due to the large number of private enterprises and scattered layout, there is insufficient confidence in effective capacity clearance through industry self - discipline. The power cost accounts for 30% of the production cost of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations affect the power cost and then the industrial silicon price. In December, there is an expected decline in the start - up rate of industrial silicon production enterprises on the supply side, and downstream polysilicon industry has production cuts, downstream silicone monomer plants have maintenance plans, while the aluminum alloy industry maintains a stable start - up rate [2] 1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - **Sales Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce industrial silicon in the future and worried about price drops during sales, the recommended hedging ratio is 20% for selling corresponding futures contracts and 20% for a combined options strategy (buying put options + selling call options) [6] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce polysilicon/silicone/aluminum alloy in the future and worried about cost increases when purchasing industrial silicon, if the product price has no correlation, the recommended hedging ratio is 30% for buying corresponding futures contracts and 10% for a combined options strategy (selling put options + buying call options); if the product price is correlated, the recommended hedging ratio is 20% for selling corresponding futures contracts and 20% for a combined futures contract strategy (buying put options + selling call options) [6] - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high industrial silicon inventories and worried about inventory depreciation due to price drops, the recommended hedging ratio is 20% for selling the main futures contract and 10% for a combined options strategy (selling call options + buying put options) [6] 2. Important Information and Events to Watch - No important information was reviewed this week [7] 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Futures Trends**: This week, the closing price of the industrial silicon futures weighted index contract on Friday was 8,677 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.15%. The trading volume was 382,100 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 38.35%, and the open interest was 407,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 lots. The month - spread between SI2602 and SI2605 was in a Contango structure, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 9,019 lots, a week - on - week increase of 400 lots. The MACD and moving averages (daily level) show a pattern of "short - position reduction and price increase", and the current price has risen from near the lower - rail of the Bollinger Band to near the middle - rail, with the bandwidth showing signs of widening. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton and the pressure level near the middle - rail of the Bollinger Band [9] - **Option Situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been fluctuating recently, indicating that the actual price fluctuation range has been gradually expanding. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has been strengthening. The PCR of option open interest has been declining, indicating that the proportion of put option open interest relative to call option open interest has decreased, and the market's bearish sentiment is gradually receding [12] - **Capital Trends**: The net short - position of key industrial silicon seats has decreased recently, indicating that some institutions are closing their short positions [14] - **Month - Spread Structure**: The term structure of industrial silicon futures shows a back structure, which is relatively stable [16] - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main industrial silicon contract is generally at a normal level [18] 3.3 Spot Data of the Silicon Industry Chain - The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions, industrial silicon powder, and downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, silicone DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged this week, except that the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.23% [20][21] 4. Valuation and Profit 4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - Since reaching the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry has been in a continuous recovery channel. The profit of the polysilicon industry is currently stable. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, while the profit level of the silicone industry is showing a warming trend [22] 5. Fundamental Analysis 5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - **Production and Start - up Rate**: The weekly production and start - up rate data of industrial silicon samples in different regions show that there are different degrees of changes. For example, the weekly production of BAIINFO's industrial silicon increased by 400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.64%, and the start - up rate of Shanghai Steel Union's industrial silicon decreased by 0.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.79% [25][27] - **Inventory**: There are various inventory data for industrial silicon in different regions and types, such as the weekly inventory of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and social inventories in ports like Kunming, Huangpu, and Tianjin [35][36] 5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - **Production and Start - up Rate**: The weekly production of domestic polysilicon decreased, with SMM's weekly production decreasing by 100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%, and BAIINFO's weekly production decreasing by 140 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%. The start - up rate also decreased, with BAIINFO's weekly start - up rate decreasing by 1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0238 [40] - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory data of domestic polysilicon shows that the total inventory is 512,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.015%, and there are also changes in the inventories of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts [42] 5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Production and Start - up Rate**: The weekly start - up rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained stable, with the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy unchanged at 60%, and that of secondary aluminum alloy unchanged at 59.8%. The weekly inventory of primary aluminum alloy decreased by 0.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%, and that of secondary aluminum alloy decreased by 100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51% [45] 5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 0.07 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.43% [49] 5.5 Terminal - There are data on China's total commercial housing sales area (residential + office + shops), monthly automobile production, and monthly new photovoltaic installed capacity [52]

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 点评 18 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8645 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.59%，持仓 减仓 3030 手至 20.78 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9593 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 205 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 59300 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.6%，持仓 减仓 13608 手至 13.99 万手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格小幅上调至 52400 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格小幅上调至 52400 元/吨，现货对主力贴 水收至 6900 元/吨。西南两地硅厂减产达到此前预期位置，由于减产节奏 拉的比较长，减产不及下游采购跌量，市场对于减产消息反馈不太敏感。 当前成交集中在套保单或未交付前期订单。工业硅自身缺乏涨势，短期受 多晶硅带涨。晶硅现货过剩和仓单短缺结构性矛盾下，厂家大幅提升现货 报价，与部分咨询网站坚持稳价相悖。日内投机性持仓开始降低，部分多 头选择获利离场，仍无新注册仓单。当前期现运行逻辑仍有分歧，投资者 谨慎盲目追涨，建议跟 ...