Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply production schedule has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8815 - 9085 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production schedule continues to decrease, while the demand for wafers, cells, and components continues to increase. Overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50040 - 51940 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, wafers and cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a high level, with a production profit of - 447 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工 rate of 71.12%, flat week - on - week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3050 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 22, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 543,000 tons, a 0.74% week - on - week increase; sample enterprise inventory is 174,950 tons, a 0.57% week - on - week increase; major port inventory is 120,000 tons, an 0.84% week - on - week increase [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a 3.79% month - on - month decrease. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons [8]. - Demand: Last week, the wafer output was 13.92GW, a 0.28% week - on - week increase, and the inventory was 168,700 tons, a 1.93% week - on - week increase. Currently, wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 57.53GW, a 2.73% month - on - month increase. The cell output in August was 58.27GW, a 0.13% month - on - month increase [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On September 22, the basis of the 11 - contract was 1660 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% week - on - week decrease, at a low level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: Most contract prices of industrial silicon futures decreased compared to the previous value, while some spot prices increased slightly [14]. - Inventory: Various types of inventories, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, showed different degrees of increase [14]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly output of sample enterprises increased, and the output in Xinjiang increased significantly [14]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of industrial silicon in different regions showed different trends, with some regions in a loss state [14]. Polysilicon - Price: Most contract prices of polysilicon futures decreased compared to the previous value, and the prices of wafers, cells, and components showed different degrees of stability or slight changes [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of wafers decreased, while the inventory of cells increased, and the inventory of components decreased [16]. - Production and Demand: The production of wafers, cells, and components increased, and the export of cells increased significantly [16].

Core Viewpoint - Recent industrial silicon prices are influenced by supply-side policies, with market sentiment rising due to rumors of potential environmental production limits in Xinjiang and strict quality control of industrial silicon warehouse receipts [1] Supply Side - Industrial silicon production costs are increasing despite a decrease in quartzite prices, driven by rising prices of petroleum coke and premium coal [1] - There has been no significant progress in supply-side reforms for industrial silicon, and without production constraints, high prices may stimulate a rebound in production [1] Demand Side - The demand for industrial silicon has been strong, driven by high prices of polysilicon stimulating production and pre-holiday stocking needs [1] - The complete cost of industrial silicon has shifted to a range of 8,800-9,300 yuan/ton, which may serve as a central axis for price fluctuations [1] Market Outlook - Despite the upward shift in industrial silicon prices, the market is expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation due to limited terminal demand and a significant amount of new production capacity awaiting commissioning [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is slow, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to be stable in the medium - term, demand is gradually recovering, and the price is predicted to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [6][8][10]. - The main logic for the market is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to an oversupply situation, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors such as cost support and inventory levels affecting the market [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease. The inventory of polysilicon, silicone, and aluminum alloy ingots is at different levels, with silicone and aluminum alloy ingots at high levels [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Bearish. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season, with a production loss of 3237 yuan/ton for sample oxygen - passing 553 [6]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 195 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased, which is bearish [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule is increasing, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The price of industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 8775 - 9035 [8]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase. The demand side shows that the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has different changes, and the current production of silicon wafers is in a loss state [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. Although the production is increasing, it is currently in a loss state [10]. - **Basis**: On September 18, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 605 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase, at a low level in the same period, which is neutral [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [10]. - **Expectation**: The supply schedule will decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term. Demand is gradually recovering, and cost support is stable. The price of polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 52285 - 54125 [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased, and spot prices remained unchanged. Inventory increased, and production and some regions' operating rates also changed [16]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices of most contracts decreased. The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components changed, and the export of photovoltaic cells increased [18]. 3.4 Price and Basis Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The report shows the trends of the basis and the price difference between 421 and 553 silicon [20]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the trends of the disk price and the basis of the main contract [23]. 3.5 Inventory, Production, and Capacity Utilization - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory in various regions and warehouses increased. The production and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also changed [16][26][28]. - **Polysilicon**: The total inventory increased, and the production and operating rates of related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also changed [10][18]. 3.6 Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang are presented [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The cost trend of the polysilicon industry is shown [62]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [36][39]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon [65]. 3.8 Downstream Market Analysis - **Organic Silicon**: Analyzes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [42][44][49]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Analyzes the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy [52][55][57]. - **Polysilicon Downstream**: Analyzes the cost, price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and related accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry [62][68][71].

据隆众资讯样本数据统计推算，本周全国工业硅产量约为8.40万吨，全国工业硅产能利用率为57.85%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Short - term interval operation [5] Core View - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon show general performance, and their futures prices are in a volatile state. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news, and there may be upward space if driven by policies. The polysilicon futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices in the medium - to - long - term [2][5] Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On September 17, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,895 yuan/ton and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.06% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 285,673 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,896 lots, a change of 24 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton. The prices in many regions remained stable [1] - The consumption side was stable. After nearly two weeks of low - level stable operation, most downstream enterprises had completed rigid restocking. Monomer factories had an increased willingness to support prices and made small trial increases [1] Strategy of Industrial Silicon - The futures market fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals changed little recently. The supply increased after resumption of production, and the consumption side was stable. The industrial silicon futures were mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the market may have upward space if promoted by policies [2] - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On September 17, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures maintained a volatile state, opening at 53,665 yuan/ton and closing at 53,490 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.09% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 126,234 lots, and the trading volume was 186,238 lots [3] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.10 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,200 tons, a change of 3.31% month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 13.88GW, a change of 0.73% month - on - month [3] - In September, the domestic polysilicon production schedule was expected to be about 130,000 tons, still in excess compared with downstream demand. Some leading manufacturers planned to cut production in October [4] Strategy of Polysilicon - The implementation of the energy - consumption policy was late, and the short - term supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon were general. The market was mainly volatile. The market was affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy was still being promoted. Participants needed to pay attention to risk management and follow up on policy implementation and spot - price transmission. In the medium - to - long - term, it was suitable to lay out long positions at low prices [5] - Unilateral: Short - term interval operation; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has weakened. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 8780 - 9050 yuan/ton [6][8] - For polysilicon, the short - term supply scheduling will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium - term. The overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 52675 - 54665 yuan/ton [10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6] - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish [6] - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3237 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6] - Other factors: On September 16th, the basis of the 11 - contract was 185 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [8] Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The September production schedule is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10] - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and inventory decreased by 1.78%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The September production schedule is 57.53GW, a 2.73% increase from the previous month. Battery cell and component production also show different trends of change [10] - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,380 yuan/ton [10] - Other factors: On September 16th, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 1170 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Weekly inventory increased by 3.79% and is at a low level in the same period of history. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20. The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [10] 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase compared to the previous day. Spot prices of different grades of silicon also increased slightly [17] - Inventory: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all increased [17] - Production: The weekly output of sample enterprises increased by 4.66% [17] Polysilicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase compared to the previous day. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable [19] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of silicon wafers decreased by 1.78%, and the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells decreased by 40.85% [19] - Production: The weekly output of silicon wafers increased by 5.74%, and the monthly output of photovoltaic cells increased by 0.14% [19] 3. Price and Inventory Trends - Industrial silicon: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends are presented through multiple charts [21][27][28][36] - Polysilicon: The disk price trend, price - basis trend, and inventory trend are presented through multiple charts [24][25][65] 4. Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial silicon: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the changes in production, import, export, consumption, and balance [38][41] - Polysilicon: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the changes in supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [67] 5. Downstream Trends Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged, the profit - cost trend and weekly output trend are presented through charts [45] - Other products: The price trends of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 are presented through charts [47][48] Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: The price trends of waste aluminum recycling, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap imports, and the import cost - profit trend of ADC12 are presented through charts [55] - Inventory and production: The monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly opening rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory trend of aluminum alloy ingots are presented through charts [58] - Demand: The monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheels are presented through charts [59] Polysilicon - Cost and price: The cost and price trends of polysilicon are presented through charts [65] - Inventory: The total inventory trend of polysilicon is presented through charts [65] - Silicon wafers: The relevant trends of silicon wafers are presented through charts, but specific content is not detailed in the text [70]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures market has strengthened again recently due to potential supply-side disturbances. It is expected that the silicon price may remain at a high level in the short term, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. The polysilicon price is also in a high-level consolidation, and the spot price increase faces pressure [1]. - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing steadily, while the demand is mixed. The polysilicon industry has a certain demand increment, but the organic silicon and silicon-aluminum alloy industries have different situations [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - On September 17, 2025, the average price of non-oxygenated 553 industrial silicon in East China increased by 1.11% to 9,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 increased by 1.05% to 9,600 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, up 1.31% [1]. - The prices of N-type polysilicon materials such as N-type dense material, N-type re-feeding material, N-type mixed material, and N-type granular silicon all increased, with increases ranging from 1.84% to 2.06%. The futures main contract closed at 53,670 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [1]. Market Supply and Demand - **Industrial Silicon Supply**: With the continuous rise of silicon prices, some previously overhauled silicon factories in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, and the power cost is at a low level throughout the year, so the enterprise start-up rate has steadily recovered, and the supply has increased steadily [1]. - **Industrial Silicon Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, but some silicon material factories have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments. The organic silicon market has supply pressure, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, with low inventory willingness [1]. - **Polysilicon Supply**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will increase slightly, with an estimated output of nearly 110,000 tons in July and about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - **Polysilicon Demand**: The trading volume in the polysilicon market has increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased significantly. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase faces resistance [1]. Investment Strategies - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt interval operation, buy out-of-the-money put options, and consider participating in the 2511 and 2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Before the implementation of supply-side reform policies, try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. Industry News - Hebei Kuntian New Energy Co., Ltd.'s silicon-carbon anode material production line (Phase I, 1,000 tons) has been officially put into operation and started small-scale supply to domestic and foreign leading customers. The company has planned a Phase II expansion plan, aiming for an annual production capacity of 5,000 tons after the completion of both phases [1]. - On September 12, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Overall Plan for the 'Three-North' Shelter Forest Program", proposing to actively promote photovoltaic sand control in the northern wind-sand area and the northwest desert area [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery is at a low level and cost support has weakened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, the short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch due to capacity mismatch is difficult to change [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 219,000 tons (low), silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is 73,200 tons (high), with a production profit of - 82 yuan/ton, and a comprehensive operating rate of 72.71% (unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 70,800 tons (high), with an import loss of 140 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum operating rate is 55.5%, a 0.36% increase from the previous week (low) [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 3237 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 12, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 255 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 539,000 tons, a 0.37% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,950 tons, a 1.84% increase; and the inventory of major ports is 119,000 tons, a 1.71% increase [6]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [7]. - Expectation: The supply - side production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [7]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is predicted to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 165,500 tons, a 1.78% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 57.53GW, a 2.73% increase from the previous month. In August, battery cell production was 58.27GW, a 0.13% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of external - sales battery cell factories was 4.62GW, a 40.84% decrease. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 60.04GW, a 3.03% increase. In August, component production was 49.2GW, a 4.45% increase from the previous month, and the expected production for September is 50.3GW, a 2.23% increase. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 12, the price of N - type dense material was 50,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2060 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase from the previous week, and it is at a historical low [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has decreased [9]. - Expectation: The short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts show various changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 - contract price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China is 9095 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase from the previous value [15]. - Inventory data shows that most inventories, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, have increased to varying degrees [15]. Polysilicon - The prices of various types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases or decreases. For example, the daily price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers (130μm) is 1.28 yuan/piece, unchanged from the previous value [17]. - The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends. For example, the weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease [17]. 3. Price and Basis Trends - The price and basis trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented through charts, showing historical price changes and the relationship between spot and futures prices [19][23]. 4. Inventory Trends - Industrial silicon inventory includes交割库及港口库存, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipts, all of which show certain trends of change over time [26]. - Polysilicon inventory also shows different trends, with the total inventory showing a certain increase [17]. 5. Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions, such as Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan, show different trends over time [28][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also shows different trends [29]. 6. Cost Trends - The cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, such as Sichuan 421, Yunnan 421, and Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553, are presented through charts [36]. 7. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon show the relationship between production, import, export, consumption, and balance over different time periods [38][41]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon also shows the relationship between supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [66]. 8. Downstream Trends Organic Silicon - The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products, such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4, are presented [44][46][50]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, production, and operating rate trends of aluminum alloy, as well as the demand trends in the automotive and wheel - hub industries, are presented [53][56][57]. Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon, as well as the trends of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, and component cost - profit, are presented [63][66][69]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the industry inventory is accumulating, and the idea is to short at high prices; for polysilicon, attention should be paid to market information changes [1] - The trend strength of industrial silicon is -1, indicating a bearish view, and the trend strength of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,745 yuan/ton, with a change of -75 yuan compared to T - 5; the closing price of PS2511 was 53,610 yuan/ton, with a change of -3,125 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts also showed different degrees of changes [1] - **Basis and Premium**: The basis and premium of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different changes compared to different benchmarks and time periods [1] - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,600 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan compared to T - 5; the price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock was 51,550 yuan/ton, with a change of -50 yuan compared to T - 5. The prices of other products also had corresponding changes [1] - **Profits**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was -2,526 yuan/ton, with a change of -390 yuan compared to T - 5; the profit of polysilicon enterprises was -14.4 yuan/kg, with a change of 0.2 yuan compared to T - 5. The profits of other products also showed different trends [1] - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon - industry inventory (social inventory + enterprise inventory) was 71.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.51 million tons compared to T - 5; the polysilicon - manufacturer inventory was 21.9 million tons, with an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to T - 5 [1] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions showed different degrees of changes [1] Macro and Industry News - On September 11, 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Catalog of Advanced and Applicable Process Technologies and Equipment for National Industrial Resource Comprehensive Utilization (2025 Edition)", focusing on four fields including industrial solid waste source reduction and comprehensive utilization, with a focus on the comprehensive utilization technology of new energy vehicle power batteries, photovoltaic modules, etc. [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is -1, and the trend strength of polysilicon is 0, with the value range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, representing different degrees of bullish or bearish views [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon should be shorted on rallies, with a trading strategy of shorting at high prices and taking profits at low prices, not holding positions for the long - term. The expected price range for next week is 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton [7][9]. - Polysilicon is policy - driven. Attention should be paid to the progress of the platform company. The expected price range for next week is 50000 - 55000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long close to the spot price [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon futures prices first declined and then rose, with spot prices increasing. The Friday closing price was 8745 yuan/ton. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 8600 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan week - on - week), and the Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon price was 8900 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan week - on - week) [2]. - Polysilicon futures prices declined and adjusted. The Friday closing price was 53610 yuan/ton. The upstream spot price remained firm, and downstream buyers made small - scale replenishments [2]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply - Side - The weekly industry inventory increased slightly. The production in Xinjiang, Gansu, and Ningxia increased, while that in the Southwest remained stable. The overall weekly production increased marginally. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 million tons, the social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.32 million tons [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Demand - Side - The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. In the short term, the weekly polysilicon production remained high, and there were plans for polysilicon factories to resume production next month. The weekly production of organic silicon increased slightly, but there were expectations of self - disciplined production cuts. The aluminum alloy sector had rigid demand, and the export market remained stable [4]. 4. Polysilicon Supply - Side - The short - term weekly production remained high. In September, some factories cut production, but some second - and third - tier factories resumed production. The estimated production in September was about 125,000 tons. There were also plans for some factories to resume production in October. The upstream inventory began to accumulate [4]. 5. Polysilicon Demand - Side - After the profit of silicon wafers was restored, the production increased. The short - term silicon wafer inventory was relatively low, and the overseas battery export demand was good. The silicon wafer enterprises had replenished stocks for 3 months, and there may be no large - scale replenishment in the short term [6]. 6. Trading Strategies - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short on rallies, with a price range of 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton next week [7][9]. - For polysilicon, it is recommended to go long close to the spot price, with a price range of 50000 - 55000 yuan/ton next week [8][9]. - For cross - period trading, consider a reverse spread for PS2511/PS2512 [10]. - It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon factories conduct short - hedging, and downstream silicon wafer factories conduct long - hedging [10].