| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251124：上方承压 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/24 近期趋势 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 | | | | | | 元/吨 | 期货主力合约收盘价 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 | 8,960.00 390.00 | -1.27% 115.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 53,360.00 | 1.73% | | 元/吨 | 基差 | | -2,360.00 | -910.00 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side has a slight reduction in production scheduling, around the historical average. Demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8970 - 9180 for the 2601 contract [3][6]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term production scheduling on the supply side is reduced, with a mid - term recovery expected. The demand side shows a continuous decline in silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production, indicating a continuous decline in overall demand. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51620 - 53280 for the 2601 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, organic silicon is in a loss state with a 72.18% comprehensive utilization rate, and the aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - **Basis**: On November 20, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 177,800 tons, a 3.01% increase; the main port inventory is 127,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 27,100 tons, a 1.11% increase from the previous week. The predicted production scheduling for November is 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory increased by 5.13%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On November 20, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 150 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 271,000 tons, a 1.49% increase from the previous week, at a low level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, changing from long to short [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of most contracts decreased, with the 01 contract dropping 3.35% to 9,075 yuan/ton [15]. - The price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,350 yuan/ton [15]. - The social inventory decreased by 1.09% to 546,000 tons, and the sample enterprise inventory increased by 3.01% to 177,800 tons [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of most contracts decreased, with the 01 contract dropping 3.98% to 52,450 yuan/ton [17]. - The weekly total inventory increased by 1.50% to 271,000 tons [17]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance sheets are presented [19][25][26][33][35]. - **Polysilicon**: The disk price trends, fundamental trends, supply - demand balance sheets, and trends of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented [22][59][62][65]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Trends - **Organic Silicon**: The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products are presented [41][43][46]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) trends are presented [49][52][54]. - **Polysilicon**: The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand trends, as well as the trends of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and photovoltaic accessories, are presented [59][65][68][71][74].

| 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 支撑位：8000 | 27.9% | 72.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 硅产业企业风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | | 套保比例 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售工业硅 未来有生产工业硅的计划，担心销售工业硅时价格下跌导致销售利 润减少的风险 | | 为防止价格下跌 导致销售利润减 少，企业需在采 | 期货 | 依据生产计划卖出对应期货合约 | 40% | 根据销售利润 | | | | | 到原料的同时卖 | | | | | | | | | 出期货合约锁定 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入看跌期权 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information on the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On November 18, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.88%. The position decreased by 3,530 lots to 248,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,675 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 50 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2601 closed at 52,210 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.67%. The position increased by 848 lots to 137,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon was 52,300 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 523,000 yuan/ton. The spot changed from a discount to a premium of 90 yuan/ton to the main contract. [2] - Silicon plants in the southwest continued to cut production and hold back sales. Transactions were mainly concentrated on Xinjiang point-price orders and Tianjin trading. The current supply tightening and cost increase provided bottom support for industrial silicon. However, the simultaneous production cuts in downstream industries restricted the upward space, so industrial silicon continued to fluctuate and adjust. A industry conference was held, and there were changes in the polysilicon production storage platform. Due to the significant effectiveness of the industry's anti-involution reported by CCTV and the continuous voice of the Photovoltaic Association, some negative emotions were diluted. [2] - Due to the contraction of downstream orders, silicon wafers took the lead in cutting production and prices, putting upward pressure on polysilicon. At the same time, on the basis of the spot price remaining firm, the bottom position was stable. The top and bottom of crystalline silicon were clear, and the volatility within the range was high. Investors needed to enter the market cautiously. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Industrial silicon fluctuated weakly and polysilicon fluctuated strongly on November 18. The supply and cost factors affected the price trends of both, and downstream production cuts restricted the upward space. The industry conference and media reports had an impact on market sentiment. [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,980 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained stable, with only a few varieties showing small changes. The spot discount narrowed to 50 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 620 to 43,402, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 4,175 to 226,725 tons. The total social inventory increased by 400 to 452,400 tons. [2][3] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 445 yuan/ton to 52,210 yuan/ton. The spot prices remained stable. The spot changed from a discount to a premium of 90 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 230 to 7,960, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 52,000 tons to 243,600 tons. The total social inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 279,000 tons. [2][3] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 13,000 yuan/ton. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 700 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton. [3] 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts showed the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices. [5][7][10] - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts presented the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. [12][14][17] - **Inventory**: Charts displayed the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon. [18][21] - **Cost and Profit**: Charts showed the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon. [24][26][28] 4. Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional qualifications in the field of non - ferrous metals research. [32][33][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to gradually peak, and the risk of further inventory accumulation will ease, with supply - side pressure gradually decreasing marginally. The industry is in a wide - range weak - oscillation stage with no significant driving force currently [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment and limited downward space for costs. Negative factors are the decline in production of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, weakening demand [4][5]. Polysilicon - The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the expectation game of "November concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation". The market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand", and the overall risk is relatively high [7]. - Positive factors include the potential for an industry capacity integration and clearance plan to improve the industrial pattern. Negative factors are the possible continuous inventory accumulation if the plan fails to materialize [8]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8980 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-1.10%) daily and 200 yuan (-2.18%) weekly. The trading volume is 304,628 lots, up 32,817 lots (12.07%) daily but down 22,146 lots (-6.78%) weekly. The open interest is 248,019 lots, down 3,530 lots (-1.40%) daily and 22,940 lots (-8.47%) weekly [9]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 44,022 lots, down 1,323 lots (-2.92%) daily and 2,233 lots (-4.83%) weekly [9]. 2. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions show different trends. For example, the price of 99 and 553 in Xinjiang remains unchanged, while the price of 553 in Tianjin drops by 50 yuan (-0.53%) daily and weekly [16]. - The price of organic silicon DMC rises by 1,600 yuan (14.35%) weekly, while the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 drops by 100 yuan (-0.46%) daily and 50 yuan (-0.23%) weekly [16]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 44,022 lots, down 1,323 lots from the previous period, with a decline rate of 7.32%. The warehouse receipt quantities in different delivery warehouses show different changes [27]. Polysilicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52,210 yuan/ton, down 445 yuan (-0.85%) daily but up 280 yuan (0.54%) weekly. The trading volume is 173,704 lots, down 76,062 lots (-30.45%) daily and 150,894 lots (-46.49%) weekly. The open interest is 137,091 lots, up 848 lots (0.62%) daily but down 1,377 lots (-0.99%) weekly [28]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 8,190 lots, up 70 lots (0.9%) daily but down 1,660 lots (-16.85%) weekly [28]. 2. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon shows little change. For example, the price of N - type re - feeding material is 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan (0.19%) [41]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers drops. The silicon wafer price index is 1.27 yuan/piece, down 0.03 yuan (-3.00%) daily and 0.02 yuan (-2.00%) weekly [43]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 655 yuan/ton, up 1,390 yuan (-67.97%) daily and 1,065 yuan (-61.92%) weekly [53]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 8,190 lots, up 70 lots from the previous day [53].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an industrial silicon and polysilicon daily report dated November 18, 2025 [1] - On the 17th, industrial silicon showed a slightly upward trend with the main contract 2601 closing at 9080 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.11%, and an increase in positions by 247 to 252,000 hands. Polysilicon also trended slightly upward, with the main contract 2601 closing at 52,655 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 2.9%, and a decrease in positions by 8,948 to 13.6 hands [2] - The current tight supply and rising costs provide a bottom - support for industrial silicon, but the simultaneous production cuts in downstream sectors limit its upward space, so it continues to fluctuate and adjust. For polysilicon, due to the reduction in downstream orders, silicon wafers cut production and prices first, putting upward pressure on polysilicon. However, with the spot price holding firm, the bottom position is stable [2] Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 9020 yuan/ton on November 14 to 9080 yuan/ton on November 17, a rise of 60 yuan/ton; the near - month contract rose from 9035 yuan/ton to 9095 yuan/ton, also a 60 - yuan increase [3] - Most spot prices remained unchanged, and the spot premium to the main contract decreased from - 85 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [3] - Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1323 to 44,022, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 4175 to 226,725 tons. The total social inventory increased by 400 to 452,400 tons [3] Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 54,045 yuan/ton to 52,655 yuan/ton, a decline of 1390 yuan/ton; the near - month contract rose from 51,750 yuan/ton to 53,045 yuan/ton, an increase of 1295 yuan/ton [3] - Spot prices remained stable, and the spot premium to the main contract increased from - 1745 yuan/ton to - 355 yuan/ton, an increase of 1390 yuan/ton [3] - Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 70 to 8190, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 52,000 tons to 243,600 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 2000 tons to 279,000 tons [3] Organic Silicon - Most organic silicon spot prices remained unchanged, except that the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 13,300 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 700 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][17] Inventory - Charts present industrial silicon futures inventory, factory - warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [18][22] Cost - profit - Charts show average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][29] Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [32][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply was 91,000 tons last week with no change from the previous week, while demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase. The cost support in Xinjiang has risen during the dry season. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8930 - 9110 [7]. - For polysilicon, last week's production decreased by 0.74% to 26,800 tons, and the November production plan is expected to decrease by 10.37% compared to the previous month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53285 - 54805 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase. The demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy shows different trends [7]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is at a loss of 2874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [7]. - Basis: On November 14th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 330 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 172,600 tons, a 0.35% increase; and the main port inventory was 127,000 tons, unchanged [7]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 contract price closed above the MA20 [7]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [8]. - Expectation: The supply production plan has decreased, and the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has increased. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8930 - 9110 [8]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 26,800 tons, a 0.74% decrease, and the November production plan is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease compared to the previous month [10]. - Demand: The production and demand of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are all in a downward trend, and the silicon wafer production is currently in a loss state [10]. - Cost: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On November 14th, the N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1745 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.08% increase, and it is at a low level compared to historical data [10]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 01 contract price closed above the MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [10]. - Expectation: The supply production plan continues to decrease, the demand shows a continuous decline, and the cost support remains stable. The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 53285 - 54805 [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon market data includes prices, inventories, production, and opening rates of different contracts and regions. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.37% to 9020 yuan/ton, and the weekly social inventory was 546,000 tons, a 1.09% decrease [16]. - Polysilicon market data includes prices, inventories, production, and export/import data of different contracts and downstream products. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 0.28% to 54,045 yuan/ton, and the weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% to 26.5 GW [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon: The destocking of warehouse receipts provides upward momentum for the futures price. It is recommended to buy on dips, with an expected price range of 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton next week [6][7]. - Polysilicon: The upcoming Chengdu conference may boost market sentiment. The market is optimistic next week, with an expected price range of 51,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Cross - period: No recommendations are provided [8]. - Hedging: It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon plants conduct short - hedging, and downstream silicon wafer enterprises conduct long - hedging [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends - Industrial silicon: The futures price fluctuated within a range this week, closing at 9,020 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price remained unchanged, with Xinjiang 99 - silicon quoted at 8,850 yuan/ton and Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon at 9,100 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The futures price first declined and then rose, closing at 54,045 yuan/ton on Friday. The upstream spot price remained firm, and there may be downstream restocking after the Sichuan conference next week [2]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial silicon - Supply: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. The production in the southwest and Xinjiang decreased, while that in Inner Mongolia and Henan increased slightly. The overall weekly production decreased month - on - month. The inventory of futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.4 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.06 million tons, resulting in an overall industry inventory decrease of 0.5 million tons [3]. - Demand: The downstream demand was weak. The polysilicon production decreased in November, the organic silicon had rigid demand, and the aluminum alloy maintained a rigid procurement rhythm. The export market was stable, but the price was difficult to increase [4]. Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly production decreased. The inventory of upstream manufacturers increased, indicating a reduction in downstream production. The average full - cost of polysilicon was 50,890 yuan/ton, providing strong support for the futures price [4][5]. - Demand: The silicon wafer production decreased week - on - week. The short - term silicon wafer inventory was relatively low, and the November production decreased month - on - month due to the decline in terminal demand. Some upstream and downstream contracts had been signed, but the overall transaction price did not rise [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook Industrial silicon - The supply is expected to decrease from November, and the demand will also decline marginally. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The key factor is whether the organic silicon enterprises will jointly cut production as scheduled. The continuous destocking of warehouse receipts provides support for the futures price. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. Polysilicon - The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with a slight inventory build - up from November to December. The Chengdu conference next week may bring positive news and boost market sentiment, driving the futures price closer to the previous high [7]. 3.4 Data Presentation - The report presents various data charts, including the reference prices of industrial silicon in major consumption areas, the inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory, factory inventory), production, profit, export and import volume, and the price, production, and inventory of polysilicon and its downstream products (organic silicon, aluminum alloy) [10][12][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 13, industrial silicon showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.22%. The position increased by 5,622 lots to 268,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,692 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 remained stable at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 205 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon showed a strong oscillation. The main contract 2601 closed at 54,195 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.69%. The position increased by 3,409 lots to 144,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon was 52,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 2,195 yuan/ton [2]. - Silicon plants in the southwest region have significantly reduced production. However, due to simultaneous production cuts in the downstream, the inventory reduction rhythm has not been achieved. The futures market has priced in the production - cut expectation in advance and has pulled back due to the drag of crystalline silicon [2]. - In November, the production schedules of polysilicon materials and downstream silicon wafers have both declined. The planned production - cut scale of silicon materials exceeds that of the downstream. However, under the strong quota limit of silicon wafers, the production - cut rhythm is ahead of the upstream [2]. - As the impact of the polysilicon production capacity platform news fades, the short - term weak reality has led the futures market to enter a low - level consolidation stage. A industry meeting was held, and CCTV reported on the same day that the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry had achieved remarkable results, which diluted the negative sentiment related to the production capacity platform [2]. - The polysilicon futures market is dominated by multiple news, and its volatility continues to increase. It is recommended that investors exercise caution [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,145 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 9,155 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained stable. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 549 to 45,387, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 5,365 to 230,900 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 4,700 tons to 447,700 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 735 yuan/ton to 54,195 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract remained unchanged at 51,335 yuan/ton. All spot prices remained stable. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 720 to 9,130, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 29.55 million tons, and the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.1 million tons to 27.7 million tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil all increased, with increases of 1,400 yuan/ton, 1,000 yuan/ton, 1,000 yuan/ton, and 2,200 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][25]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [28][30][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 12, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,195 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.43%, and the open interest decreased by 8,823 lots to 262,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,692 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 remained stable at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 245 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2601 closed at 53,460 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.43%, and the open interest increased by 2,149 lots to 141,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon was 52,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed to 665 yuan/ton [2]. - Silicon factories in the southwest region reduced production on a large scale. However, due to the simultaneous production cuts in the downstream, the inventory reduction rhythm was not achieved. The futures market priced in the production cut expectation in advance and declined due to the drag of crystalline silicon. In November, the production schedules of polysilicon materials and downstream silicon wafers both declined. The planned production cut scale of silicon materials exceeded that of the downstream, but under the strong quota limit of silicon wafers, the production cut rhythm was ahead of the upstream [2]. - As the impact of the polysilicon capacity platform news faded, the short - term weak reality led the futures market to enter a low - level consolidation stage. A industry meeting was held, and there were rumors in the market about the progress of the capacity platform. The person in charge of the Photovoltaic Association expressed the determination to fight against involution. The polysilicon futures market was dominated by multiple news, and the volatility continued to increase. Investors were advised to be cautious [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - Industrial silicon fluctuated weakly on the 12th, while polysilicon fluctuated strongly. Southwest silicon factories cut production, but failed to reduce inventory due to downstream production cuts. The market priced in the production cut expectation in advance and was in a low - level consolidation stage. The polysilicon market was affected by multiple news, with increasing volatility [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 9,180 yuan/ton on November 11 to 9,195 yuan/ton on November 12, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of spot industrial silicon remained stable, and the spot discount widened to 245 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 46,079, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 5,365 tons to 230,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 4,700 tons to 447,700 tons [2][3]. Polysilicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 51,930 yuan/ton on November 11 to 53,460 yuan/ton on November 12, an increase of 1,530 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed to 665 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 9,850, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.8 tons to 29.55 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 27.7 tons [2][3]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,000 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [23][25]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [28][30][35].