1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The traditional "stock or commodity - based bond trading" strategy has failed recently due to the intertwined forces of volatile commodity prices and the inflow of funds from "deposit relocation" into stocks and bonds, leading to a "simultaneous warming of stocks and bonds" situation. The bond market is expected to be mainly in a state of shock after a short - term recovery, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up when the 10 - year Treasury yield is below 1.8%. [27] - The long - term bullish trend of the stock market remains unchanged, but in the short term, it is difficult to form a clear driving force, and it is expected to be mainly in a state of index shock and structural rotation before the Spring Festival. The overall allocation value of the convertible bond market is low, and it is mainly for trading and gaming. After the Spring Festival, there may be a small - scale game on the continuation of the spring market. [27] - The "Three Red Lines" policy for real estate enterprises has basically withdrawn from the stage of the real estate industry's development as real estate enterprises have generally shifted their focus to new development models. [27] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter (4.8%) and the same period last year (5.4%). [1] - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.4%, both showing certain fluctuations compared with the previous month and the same period last year. [1] - In December 2025, the monthly value of social financing scale was 2207.5 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous month (3529.9 billion yuan) and the same period last year (2853.7 billion yuan). [1] - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year. [1] - In December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%. [1] - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of export amount was 6.60%, and the year - on - year growth rate of import amount was 5.70%. [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai Gold Exchange may adjust the trading margin level and price limit ratio of the silver deferred contract (Ag(T + D)) according to the market situation. [2] - Guangdong Province plans to promote the construction of the carbon emission trading market and support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to develop carbon emission - related futures varieties. [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has notified relevant units to pay attention to market risks and maintain market stability. [2] - On February 2, 43 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 25 had negative basis. [3] - The Thailand Futures Exchange has suspended the online gold futures trading and adjusted the daily price limit of online silver futures. [3] - Federal Reserve official Bostic expects no interest rate cuts in 2026 and believes it is too early to claim that the inflation target has been achieved. [3][19] 3.2.2 Metals - On February 3, the spot silver price reached $84 per ounce, up 6% intraday, and the spot gold price rose about 3.6%. [4] - The price of spot gold has fluctuated sharply recently, and six major state - owned banks have adjusted their gold - related businesses and issued risk warnings. [5] - Due to the sharp price fluctuations, many banks have slowed down the sales of physical gold bars and gold - based products, and some upstream gold enterprises have suspended or reduced the supply of spot gold bars to banks. [6] - The Turkish government has raised the minimum price limits of some gold and silver funds. [7] - The EU is considering banning the import of some Russian platinum - group metals and copper as part of new sanctions. [7] - On February 2, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate fell by 5030 yuan to 155,400 yuan per ton, with a continuous decline for 5 days. [7][8] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - US President Trump plans to launch a strategic key mineral reserve project "Project Vault" with an initial capital of $12 billion. [9] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On February 2, the main contract of US crude oil fell 4.42%. The easing of the US - Iran situation and the overall commodity sell - off led to a sharp drop in international oil prices. [10] - Trump said that Mexico will stop supplying oil to Cuba as part of the pressure on Cuba. [10] - The EU Commission believes that the current data does not show that the EU is overly dependent on a single natural gas supplier. [10] - The daily oil production of the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan increased from 118,000 barrels on January 31 to 183,000 barrels on February 1. [10] - The CEO of Qatar Energy Company said that by 2030, the power demand of artificial intelligence may turn the liquefied natural gas market from oversupply to shortage. [10] - The price of US natural gas futures fell by more than 20% to a two - week low due to the expected warming weather after the Arctic cold wave. [11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of last Thursday, the harvested area of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/2026 season reached 10% of the planted area. [12] - As of February 1, the arrival volume of cocoa beans in the 2025/2026 season in Cote d'Ivoire was 1.233 million tons, lower than 1.29 million tons in the same period last year. [12] - StoneX expects Brazil's first - season corn production in the 2025/2026 season to be 26.59 million tons and the second - season corn production to be 106.37 million tons. [12] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On February 2, the central bank conducted 75 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 75.5 billion yuan on the day. [13] 3.3.2 Important News - The central government has approved the "Spatial Coordination Plan for the Modern Capital Metropolitan Area (2023 - 2035)", aiming to build a world - class metropolitan area. [14] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of promoting development and using artificial intelligence in manufacturing during his research in Shandong. [14] - Nine departments have launched the "Happy Shopping during the Spring Festival" activity from February 15 to 23. [15] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have issued relevant tax policies. [15] - After the Panama court's ruling, Maersk is willing to take over the management of two ports, and China will safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. [15] - Shanghai has launched a project to purchase second - hand housing for affordable rental housing, with Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui as pilot areas. [15] - In January, the second - hand housing markets in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showed signs of recovery, while the new housing market was relatively flat. [16] - Oracle issued $25 billion of investment - grade bonds to support its AI infrastructure construction. [16] - The one - year US dollar deposit interest rate has dropped to about 3%, and investors should avoid speculative hoarding. [16] - The New York Stock Exchange's parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, has been approved to establish a US Treasury bond clearinghouse. [17] - The US Treasury has lowered the estimated federal borrowing scale for this quarter. [17][18] - Investors have continued to pour into emerging market ETFs for 15 consecutive weeks. [18] - The US House Speaker is confident to end the partial government shutdown, and some economic data release will be postponed. [18] - The Bank of Japan's policy - meeting minutes show that the decision - makers are more aware of the need for timely interest rate hikes. [18] - Iran may start nuclear negotiations with the US, and relevant high - level meetings are expected to be held. [19] - There are various bond - related events, including corporate losses, debt defaults, bond resumptions, credit rating changes, and bond redemptions. [19] - Overseas credit rating agencies have issued ratings for some companies' bonds. [19][20] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market was mainly in a state of shock, with mixed changes in bond yields. Treasury bond futures mostly declined, and the inter - bank market funds were generally stable. [21] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some industrial and financial bonds were active, and the real - estate bond and high - yield urban investment bond indexes rose slightly. [21] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell. [22] - Most money - market interest rates declined. [22][23][24] - The yields of European and US government bonds mostly increased. [25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9513 on February 2, down 27 basis points, and the central parity rate was 6.9695, down 17 basis points. [26] - The US dollar index rose 0.51%, and most non - US currencies fell. [26] - The RMB exchange - rate indexes in different currency baskets declined in the week of January 30. [26] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed - Income believes that the traditional bond - trading strategy based on stocks or commodities has failed, and the bond market is expected to be mainly in shock after a short - term recovery. [27] - Huatai Fixed - Income also believes that the long - term bullish trend of the stock market remains, but it will be in shock in the short term, and the convertible bond market has low allocation value. [27] - CITIC Construction Investment reports that the "Three Red Lines" policy for real estate enterprises has basically withdrawn. [27] - Xingzheng Fixed - Income reports that the yields of bank secondary and perpetual bonds rose last week, and the credit spreads widened. [28] - Western Fixed - Income analyzes the differences between 2021 and 2026 in terms of credit cycle, fiscal policy, and monetary policy. [28] 3.4 Stock Market News - On Monday, the A - share market had a deep adjustment, with resource stocks such as gold, non - ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil and gas falling sharply, while power grid equipment, liquor stocks, and CPO concepts showed strength. [31] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 2.23%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 3.36%. Gold stocks, technology stocks, auto stocks, and chip stocks generally declined. [31]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities emphasizes a systematic expansion strategy while avoiding consumer-related products, focusing instead on commodities with strong demand and certainty, such as precious metals, new energy metals, and long-term energy alternatives like solar and nuclear power [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast Overview - As of January 31, 2026, 2,963 listed companies have issued earnings warnings, with a predominant "reporting worries" tone; 1,095 companies reported positive earnings (approximately 37%), while 1,867 companies reported negative earnings (approximately 63%) [1] - Overall, the profitability of listed companies is expected to stabilize and recover in 2025, although it remains in a weak channel, with significant disparities in performance among companies [1] Group 2: Industry Performance Analysis - Industries with concentrated positive earnings forecasts in 2025 include non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, automotive, and public utilities, while industries with concentrated negative forecasts include coal, real estate, light manufacturing, food and beverage, and construction decoration [2] - The non-bank financial sector is expected to see significant improvements due to a recovering capital market environment and increased investment returns, with active market trading and a return to normalcy in IPOs and refinancing boosting brokerage and investment banking revenues [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector shows a positive outlook, with approximately 66% of companies expected to report favorable earnings, driven by rising commodity prices and capacity releases [2] Group 3: Key Sector Outlook - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is anticipated to continue its recovery in 2025, supported by policy encouragement and strong market interest in technology stocks, particularly in AI [4] - High-end manufacturing, particularly in the renewable energy equipment sector, is expected to show signs of recovery by early 2026 after experiencing a downturn in 2025 [4] - Traditional industries such as retail and food and beverage are expected to face weak earnings forecasts in 2025, reflecting sluggish growth in consumer income and spending [4]

Group 1: Metal Market Dynamics - The silver and gold markets are experiencing significant declines, with silver hitting a trading limit down and gold also nearing a limit down at the close [2] - The supply-demand dynamics for metals show no signs of reversal, with increasing terminal inventories and reduced purchasing willingness from downstream sectors due to high prices [2][4] - The demand for aluminum remains weak, while Indonesia's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing, alleviating previous electricity shortages [3] Group 2: Broader Economic Narratives - The recent surge in metal prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic narratives rather than supply-demand fundamentals, with geopolitical tensions leading to a preference for physical assets over dollar-denominated assets [4][5] - Historical price determinants tend to favor supply-demand relationships over macroeconomic narratives, which may mislead investors at high price levels [5] Group 3: AI Investment Trends - Microsoft's recent stock drop, despite solid earnings, highlights a potential shift in capital allocation towards AI, with investors voting against companies that increase AI spending without corresponding output [6][8] - The trend suggests that large companies may need to optimize AI capital expenditures, which could pressure hardware-related narratives [8] Group 4: AI as a Productivity Tool - Current AI applications often do not enhance productivity significantly, as many businesses could achieve similar results by hiring data analysts instead of relying on third-party AI services [13][14] - The lowering of barriers in software development due to AI advancements may lead to businesses developing their own solutions, reducing reliance on external vendors [15] Group 5: Future of AI Applications - The focus on AI applications may need to shift, particularly in consumer-facing sectors where the utility of AI remains limited [16] - Businesses leveraging cloud services and AI models are likely to benefit from cost reductions and the creation of new business models, potentially leading to the emergence of new industries [17]

Group 1 - The EU is considering a ban on imports of various platinum group metals and copper from Russia as part of new sanctions against the country [1] - The proposed ban may include iridium, rhodium, platinum, and copper, pending support from EU member states [1] - The EU plans to formally adopt this new sanctions package within the month [1] Group 2 - The metal market is already experiencing tight supply and demand conditions, with copper prices reaching historical highs this year due to strong global demand and limited mining supply [2] - Major trading centers are increasingly rejecting Russian metals, with the UK prohibiting the trading or delivery of Russian-origin copper on the London Metal Exchange after April 13, 2024 [2] - European buyers have largely ceased purchasing Russian copper due to sanctions on several large Russian producers [2] Group 3 - This proposed sanctions package is part of the EU's 20th round of sanctions against Russia since the onset of the military conflict in Ukraine [3] - The EU is also considering a proposal to replace the current price cap mechanism on Russian oil with a ban on maritime services related to Russian oil transport [3] - The current price cap on Russian crude oil is set to decrease to $44.10 per barrel starting February 1, with a review every six months [3] Group 4 - The EU is contemplating the use of a new anti-circumvention tool to prohibit the export of machine tools and specific radio equipment to Kyrgyzstan [4] - The proposed sanctions will also impose new trade restrictions on more companies and prohibit the export of materials needed for Russia's weapons production [5] - The sanctions will further limit imports of various metals from Russia [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in metal prices, including gold, silver, and copper, is expected to continue in the Asian market, raising questions about future market movements [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The current market correction is viewed as excessive and rapid, similar to previous upward trends [1] - There is a likelihood of a "dead cat bounce," indicating a potential short-term recovery in prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Long-term bullish arguments remain strong due to healthy reserve and retail demand [1] - Investors seeking geopolitical hedges are likely to continue favoring precious metals over the US dollar or US Treasury bonds [1] Group 3: Key Factors - A critical factor will be whether market bubbles have been sufficiently deflated and if speculative positions have been adequately cleared [1] - This clearing process is essential for fundamental factors to regain dominance in the market [1]

每经AI快讯，日本住友金属矿山公司股价下跌6.5%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Overall Performance - As of January 31, 2026, 2,963 listed companies issued earnings warnings, with 1,095 companies (approximately 37%) reporting positive forecasts and 1,867 companies (approximately 63%) reporting negative forecasts[4] - The overall trend indicates a stabilization in earnings, but many companies still struggle to achieve growth, reflecting significant performance divergence across sectors[4] Industry Analysis - Industries with concentrated positive forecasts include non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, beauty care, automotive, and public utilities, while industries facing negative forecasts include coal, real estate, light manufacturing, food and beverage, and construction decoration[10] - The non-bank financial sector showed a strong improvement, with 88% of companies reporting positive forecasts, driven by a recovery in the capital market and increased investment returns[19] - The non-ferrous metals sector had about 66% of companies reporting positive forecasts, benefiting from rising commodity prices and production capacity release[19] Automotive Sector Insights - The automotive sector had a positive forecast ratio of approximately 54%, indicating strong internal differentiation, with some companies facing profit pressures while others in the supply chain showed growth[24] - Major companies like GAC Group and Dongfeng Group reported losses, while automotive parts manufacturers experienced profit growth due to rising demand[24] Traditional Industries Challenges - The coal industry faced a high negative forecast ratio of about 93%, primarily due to falling prices after a period of high prices from 2022 to 2024, leading to significant profit declines[22] - The real estate sector also struggled, with over 81% of companies reporting negative forecasts, impacted by market downturns and debt issues[22] Future Outlook - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is expected to continue its recovery, supported by policy encouragement and strong demand, particularly in AI and digital economy initiatives[23] - High-end manufacturing, particularly in the renewable energy sector, is showing signs of bottoming out, with expectations of gradual recovery in early 2026[28] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with strong demand and certainty, particularly in commodities like precious metals and new energy metals, as well as strategic resources like rare earths[26] - Caution is advised regarding consumer-related sectors that may experience weak demand elasticity, particularly in real estate and luxury goods[26]

印度股市大幅跳水 印度政府今日公布了2026—2027财年年度预算案。当天，印度股市专门为预算案举行了特别交易时段。其中， 印度Nifty 50指数盘中一度大跌超700点，跌幅一度接近3%。 截至收盘，印度Nifty 50指数下跌1.96%报24825.45点；BSE Sensex指数下跌1.88%报80722.94点，创下六年来预 算日最差表现。16个主要板块中有15个收跌，中小盘指数分别下跌2.7%和2.2%。 印度NIFTY金属指数盘中跌幅一度超过5%，印度斯坦铜业公司一度跌超16%，印度斯坦锌业跌超10%。贵金属 ETF大跌，HDFC Gold ETF盘中一度跌超10%。截至收盘，印度斯坦铜业公司下跌13.11%，印度斯坦锌业跌 9.77%，印度国家铝业公司跌超8%，印度铝工业公司跌近6%，HDFC Gold ETF跌6.5%。 印度、沙特股市大跌。 今日（2月1日），印度为预算案安排了股市特别交易时段。盘中，印度Nifty 50指数一度大跌超700点，跌幅接 近3%。其中，金属股集体杀跌，NIFTY金属指数跌幅一度超过5%，收盘时跌幅仍超过4%。个股方面，印度斯 坦铜业跌超13%，印度斯坦锌业跌近1 ...

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 格隆汇2月1日｜印度政府将于2月1日（周日）公布2026-27财年年度预算案。印度股市今日为预算案举 行特别交易时段。印度NIFTY金属指数盘初跌幅一度扩大至5%。印度斯坦铜业公司领跌股指，跌幅达 16.1%，印度斯坦锌业下跌10.8%。贵金属ETF大跌，HDFC Gold ETF、SBI Gold ETF跌超10%，HDFC Silver ETF跌近15%。印度孟买证券交易所称，在交易所交易的黄金、白银ETF的参考价格将以前一交 易日（T-1日）的基金资产净值为基础。交易价格需在该T-1日资产净值的±20%涨跌幅区间内进行。印 度货币和债券市场今日休市，将于2月2日（周一）恢复交易。 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trading activities in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, highlighting significant stock movements, sector performances, and ETF transactions, indicating potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: Trading Volume and Major Stocks - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 3,908.34 billion, with Zijin Mining and CATL leading in trading volume for Shanghai and Shenzhen respectively [1] - The top ten stocks by trading volume in the Shanghai Stock Connect included Zijin Mining (49.37 billion), Kweichow Moutai (40.07 billion), and China Ping An (30.97 billion) [3] - In the Shenzhen Stock Connect, CATL topped the list, followed by Zhongji Xuchuang (56.14 billion) and Tianfu Communication (45.40 billion) [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The communication sector saw the highest net inflow of main funds at 50.92 billion, with a net inflow rate of 3.01% [6] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals sector experienced the largest net outflow of main funds at -221.83 billion, with a net outflow rate of -7.53% [7] - Other sectors with notable performances included agriculture and paper-making, while oil and gas sectors faced declines [5] Group 3: ETF Transactions - The top ETF by trading volume was the Gold ETF (518880) with a transaction amount of 257.775 billion, showing a growth of 44.82% compared to the previous trading day [13] - The Cash Flow ETF (159399) experienced a significant increase in trading volume, growing by 268.94% [14] Group 4: Institutional and Retail Activity - Institutional activity was notable, with four institutions buying 6.53 billion of Yunnan Copper, despite the stock's decline [16] - Hunan Gold, which achieved a five-day consecutive rise, saw significant buying from retail investors, with two major funds purchasing 6.19 billion and 2.86 billion respectively [19]