证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观量化指数经济周报 20251228 12 月出口增速预计将小幅回落 2025 年 12 月 28 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《聚焦主线板块，关注 ETF 组合推荐》 2025-12-28 《25Q3 美国 GDP：过时的数据，过度 的反应——美国 2025 年三季度 GDP 数据点评》 2025-12-24 东吴证券研究所 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 周度 ECI 指数：从周度数据来看，截至 2025 年 12 月 28 日，本周 ECI 供给指数为49.93%，较上周回落0.02个百分点；ECI需求指数为49.84%， 较上周环比持平。从分项来看，ECI 投资指数为 49.86%，较上周回升 0.01 个百分点； ...

人民财讯12月28日电，旭辉控股集团在港交所公告，公司已选定2025年12月29日为境外债务重组生效日 期。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 沪深300隐含波动率低位回升 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251219-20251226) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.28 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周 (20251219-20251226) 美国市场核心矛盾聚焦政策分歧与经济结构性失衡，特朗普明确要求下任美联储主席推动大幅降息，同时白银逼仓背景下，贵金 属领涨全球资产，美股整体震荡收涨。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.14%，本周下降2BPs，美元指数下跌0.69%，当前点位为98.0；2）权益方面，本周韩国、日本、新兴市 场股市上涨较多，A股指数全线收涨，创业板指、中证1000和科创50涨幅靠前，阿根廷、法国、英国股市有所下跌；3）商品方面，本周黄金上涨4.24%，并且白银逼仓背景下，贵 金属领涨全球资产，原油本周上涨0.55%。 ◼ 全球资金流向跟踪：截止到2025/12/24，过去一周来看，内外资均流入中国股市；海外 ...

在这样的变局里，最难受的，往往不是没房的，而是——手里有两套房、三套房，甚至更多的家庭。 不是制造焦虑，而是希望你提前看懂大势，早做准备。 难题一：想卖掉变现，越来越难 先说句扎心的话： ——以前，谁家要是有两三套房，那就是妥妥的"人生赢家"； ——现在，越来越多手里握着多套房的人，反而开始慌了：有的卖不掉，有的租不出去，有的还要背着 一大堆房贷。 如果你仔细看这两年中央和各地对房地产的表态，会发现一个很明确的信号： 2025年是深度调整的一年，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，很大概率会迎来一轮真正的"规则重塑"。 第一个难题，非常现实： ——你以为手里的房子是"资产"，真想变现的时候，才发现它更像"重资产"。 最近这几年，很多地方出现了同一个现象： 二手房挂牌量持续飙升，一套房子挂出去，动不动就是半年一年没人看； 想成交，就得一降再降，"以价换量"成了常态 。 为什么会这样？ 一方面，新房价格在回调，开发商打折促销、以旧换新政策不断，买家更愿意去买一手房； 另一方面，很多多套房家庭手里的都是早年买的二手房：房龄老、装修旧、小区一般，品质完全比不上 现在的新盘。 再加上，各地政策明显在"偏心"新房和改善盘： ...

12月28日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波在随笔中表示，展望明年，香港经济可望保持良好的势头。 市场普遍预期环球经济即使动力放缓，但仍可维持温和扩张，而内地以至亚洲整体仍是主要的增长引 擎，这些都将继续为香港经济提供重要支撑。此外，市场一般预计息率下调，也有利营商及投资气氛。 人工智能将定义未来各经济体的核心竞争力、重塑全球经济格局。香港正加快培育人工智能作为香港核 心产业，并以"AI+"战略赋能传统产业升级转型。香港会从算力、算法、数据、应用开发、资金支持以 及人才培育等六个方面推动其发展。在生物医药方面，香港的优势则更为明显，香港会继续吸引更多世 界级药企和医疗科研机构落户香港，并建立"第一层审批"药械注册机制，巩固香港作为区域医疗研发中 心的地位。 事实上，香港经济已连续第三年保持增长势头，拉动经济的三头马车今年来均有良好表现。整体出口在 今年首三季表现亮眼，继续是增长的主要贡献力量。固定资本投资今年首三季上升2.5%，单计第三季 度升幅更扩大至4.3%，是四个季度以来表现最好的一季，主要是受机器、电子设备、软件及其他设备 和知识产权产品的投资大升所支持，相信与企业普遍积极自动化、数据化和数字化有关。至 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report presented by the State Council highlights the progress and challenges in establishing a sound urban-rural integration development system, showing an increase in urbanization rate and a decrease in the income disparity between urban and rural residents from 2019 to 2024 [1][6]. Group 1: Urbanization and Population Mobility - The urbanization rate of the national resident population is projected to rise from 62.7% in 2019 to 67% by 2024 [1][6]. - The ratio of per capita disposable income between urban and rural residents is expected to decrease from 2.64 to 2.34 [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the need for further optimization in addressing resource shortages in urban education and public housing due to population influx [1][6]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives for Urban-Rural Integration - The report outlines the removal of residency restrictions in cities with a permanent population of less than 3 million, and further relaxation of conditions in cities with populations between 3 million and 5 million [2][7]. - The proportion of non-resident students in public schools or receiving government-funded private school placements has increased to 97% [2][7]. - Approximately 500 million high-quality farmers and over 1.43 million returnees have been cultivated, with a significant number of urban talents moving to rural areas [2][7]. Group 3: Agricultural and Rural Investment - The general public budget for agriculture, forestry, and water resources is expected to reach 2.7 trillion yuan in 2024, an 18.4% increase from 2019 [3][8]. - Financial support for agriculture is increasing, with a continuous rise in agricultural loans [3][8]. - The report identifies ongoing issues in the equitable exchange of urban-rural resources and the need for improved public resource allocation [3][8]. Group 4: Future Directions for Urban-Rural Integration - Future initiatives will focus on fully integrating agricultural migrants into urban areas, including the relaxation of residency restrictions and equal access to public services [4][10]. - There will be efforts to strengthen the rural talent pool by encouraging urban professionals to serve in rural areas and enhancing training for farmers [4][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for further reforms in rural land systems and increased financial support for rural development projects [5][11].

Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from December 22 to December 26, 2025, a total of 267 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 427.70 billion, representing a week-on-week increase of 15.42% [4] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 117 issues with a scale of 219.26 billion, a week-on-week increase of 34.26%, making up 51.26% of the total issuance [4] - City investment bonds totaled 110 issues with a scale of 71.36 billion, a week-on-week decrease of 18.87%, representing 16.69% of the total issuance [4] - Financial bonds had 40 issues with a scale of 137.08 billion, a week-on-week increase of 14.92%, accounting for 32.05% of the total issuance [4] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 2.74 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.36 years, city investment bonds 3.25 years, and financial bonds 2.35 years [4] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.26%, with industrial bonds at 2.12%, city investment bonds at 2.41%, and financial bonds at 2.23% [4] Group 2: Secondary Market - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1782.75 billion, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 28.47% [7] - The top three categories by trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium-term notes, with commercial bank bonds at 630.89 billion (up 38.88%), corporate bonds at 521.31 billion (up 15.93%), and medium-term notes at 347.64 billion (up 40.63%) [7] - In terms of credit spreads, the largest increase for AAA-rated industries was in pharmaceuticals, up 5.1 basis points, while the largest decrease was in real estate, down 1.3 basis points [6] - For AA+ rated industries, the largest increase was in household appliances, up 6.4 basis points, and the largest decrease was in textiles and apparel, down 9.8 basis points [6] - The AAA-rated credit spread increased the most in Gansu, up 8.7 basis points, while the largest decrease was in Jilin, down 2.9 basis points [6]

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 核心观点： 为什么我们认为特朗普房改将难以提振美国房地产？在2024至2025年美联储大幅降息背景下，由于房贷利 率降幅有限，美国房地产市场并未迎来复苏周期，仍呈现"供需两弱"状态。展望看，随着2026年美国中期 选举临近，"特朗普房改"呼之欲出，我们推测大致会沿着降低房贷成本、激活供给市场、降息三条路径， 但考虑到大幅降息难以有效传导至房贷利率，政策端亦受立法、司法等约束，叠加关税风险溢价和建设周 期滞后，房地产供需结构或难以在短期逆转，基准判断是2026年美国房地产维持弱复苏状态。若想要美国 地产周期出现明显复苏，我们测算5%左右的房贷利率或是美国地产周期的启动指标，若房贷利率降至合 意区间，对应的10年期美债利率或在3.2%-3.3%左右。 点击注册小程序 查看 ...

其中，在做好重点领域风险化解方面，会议提出，不断守牢安全发展底线。因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，加快构建房地产发展新模式。用好用足各类支持政策，积极有序化解债务风险。加大财力 下沉力度，确保"三保"不出问题。"一企一策"推进中小金融机构风险处置。多措并举稳定能源价格，确保 用能安全。（来源：中房网） 【购房资讯轻松享，快来关注乐居网】 文章来源:中房网 12月23日，四川省委经济工作会议在成都举行。会议确定明年四川经济工作将抓好六项重点任务。 一是，千方百计扩大有效需求，不断拓展内需增长新空间；二是，加力加劲推动科技创新和产业创 新融合发展，不断催生新质生产力； 三是，坚定不移深化改革扩大开放，不断增强高质量发展动力活力；四是，持续用力推进协调发 展，不断深化城乡融合和区域联动； 五是，用心用情保障和改善民生，不断提高人民生活品质；六是，积极稳妥做好重点领域风险化 解，不断守牢安全发展底线。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand issue has become the most decisive factor affecting the sustained and stable growth of China's economy, with expanding domestic demand ranking first in economic work for two consecutive years [2][3]. Group 1: Demand Issues - The main contradiction in China's economic operation has gradually shifted from the supply side to the demand side, indicating that resolving demand issues is crucial for achieving stable and sustainable economic growth [3]. - Despite various external shocks, China's economy has shown resilience, with major macroeconomic indicators remaining stable, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [2][3]. Group 2: Consumption Demand - The insufficient consumption demand in China is attributed to both short-term market fluctuations and deeper structural issues, necessitating both immediate stimulus policies and long-term solutions [4]. - Structural reasons for low consumption rates include a long-term low consumption rate among residents, estimated to be 10-20% below the international average, indicating significant potential for expanding domestic demand [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Demand - Investment demand remains significant and should be supported through institutional and policy innovations, emphasizing that effective investment is still crucial for economic growth [8]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that effective investment should focus on new urban construction models and enhancing rural infrastructure, with a notable emphasis on revitalizing idle rural land and improving the investment environment for private and foreign investments [8].