Core Insights - China's trade surplus reached a record $1.19 trillion in 2025, a 20% increase, driven by strong exports to various regions despite domestic economic weaknesses [1][2] - Exports contributed significantly to economic growth, accounting for one-third of GDP growth in 2025, the highest level since 1997, while imports remained flat due to weak domestic demand [2] - The economy's growth rate slowed towards the end of 2025, with GDP growth of 4.5% in Q4 compared to 4.8% in Q3, indicating underlying economic challenges [3] Economic Performance - Retail sales growth decelerated to 0.9% in December, down from 2.9% in October and 6.4% in May, reflecting weak consumer spending [3] - Fixed-asset investment experienced its first annual decline in nearly three decades, dropping 15% in December, primarily due to the real estate sector's downturn [4] - Property investment fell by 17.2% in 2025, overshadowing investments in high-tech industries, which the government is promoting [4] Future Outlook - Fitch Ratings forecasts a slowdown in GDP growth to 4.1% in 2026, down from 5% in 2025, indicating concerns about the sustainability of economic momentum [4] - Domestic demand is expected to remain constrained by low consumer confidence, deflationary pressures, and broader investment challenges beyond the property sector [5] - The real estate crisis has left approximately 80 million unsold or vacant homes, impacting sales and prices, and prompting a shift in China's development model away from debt-fueled investment [8][9] Broader Economic Issues - Weak retail spending, deflation, and low confidence levels among consumers and businesses are largely attributed to the decline in the real estate market, which holds significant savings for many households [10]

一、财经重要消息 财政部：2025年证券交易印花税增长57.8% 1月30日，财政部举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年财政收支情况。会上，财政部国库司副司长郑涌介绍， 2025年，证券交易印花税达到2035亿元，增长57.8%。 两部门：鼓励供需双方在中长期合同中签订随市场供需、发电成本变化的灵活价格机制 国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》。其中提到，完善电力市场 交易和价格机制。煤电容量电价机制完善后，各地可根据电力市场供需、参与市场的所有机组变动成本 等情况，适当调整省内煤电中长期市场交易价格下限，在确保电力电量平衡的情况下适当放宽煤电中长 期合同签约比例要求。鼓励供需双方在中长期合同中签订随市场供需、发电成本变化的灵活价格机制。 省内市场供需双方签订中长期合同时，各地不得强制要求签订固定价，可根据电力供需、市场结构等情 况，要求年度中长期合同中约定一定比例电量实行反映实时供需的灵活价格。 财政部：2025年全国一般公共预算收入21.6万亿元，较2024年下降1.7% 政治局集体学习：前瞻布局和发展未来产业 中共中央政治局1月30日下午就前瞻布局和发展未来产业进行第二十四次集体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commercial real estate REITs market is experiencing a significant uptick, with 8 REITs filing for issuance, totaling an estimated valuation of 32.1 billion yuan and expected fundraising of 31.5 billion yuan, indicating improved market efficiency and a key driver for the recovery of the real estate sector [1] Group 1: Market Recovery - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery due to a combination of policy support and improved supply-demand dynamics, with first-time home loan rates at historical lows and tax rebates for home purchases continuing [1][2] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 12,905 yuan per square meter in January, down 0.85% month-on-month, while new residential properties saw a slight increase of 0.18% month-on-month, indicating a structural price adjustment [2] - The recovery is characterized by a collaborative effort between central and local governments, implementing measures such as tax reductions and credit easing to stimulate demand [2][3] Group 2: Supply-Side Initiatives - Local state-owned enterprises are acquiring existing residential properties for use as affordable housing, facilitating inventory reduction and enhancing the housing supply system [3] - Financial resources are increasingly directed towards quality real estate companies and projects, with a shift from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock, laying a foundation for sustainable market development [3][4] - The introduction of policies aimed at stabilizing expectations and shortening adjustment periods marks a new phase in real estate policy [3] Group 3: Financial Health of Real Estate Companies - The recovery of operational assets is evident, contributing to the improvement of real estate companies' fundamentals, while debt restructuring and optimization are alleviating repayment pressures [4][5] - The construction of quality housing has become a consensus in the industry, activating demand for improved housing options and enhancing trust within the sector [4][5] - Analysts predict that the credit risk for real estate companies is beginning to decline, with expectations of earlier and more resilient profit recovery for quality firms [5]

Economic Overview - The latest GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of January 31 is 5.8%, a slight decrease from the previous value of 5.9%, indicating a marginal improvement in economic growth at the start of Q1 2026[1][9]. - The economic activity is entering a seasonal slowdown as the Spring Festival approaches, despite maintaining a high overall economic prosperity level in January[1][9]. Production Sector Insights - Industrial indicators show an overall recovery, likely linked to increased upstream raw material production activities, while service sector indicators have shown mixed results with a slight decline[2][11]. - The industrial weekly prosperity index increased to 8.7%, up from 8.6%, while the service sector index decreased to 4.1% from 4.2%[10]. Demand Side Analysis - Consumer demand is positively impacted by the Spring Festival, with a significant increase in travel data; the consumer high-frequency index rose to 5.0% from 2.7%[10][20]. - Real estate sales in 30 major cities showed a slight recovery with a transaction area of 128.5 million square meters, an 8% increase from the previous week[51]. Price Trends - Consumer prices have seen a slight rebound, with the agricultural product wholesale price index increasing by 0.38% week-on-week, while industrial product prices have also shown a minor increase[67]. - The average wholesale price of pork rose by 2.4% week-on-week, continuing a trend of price increases over the past four weeks[70]. Risks and Challenges - Economic structural transformation may lead to a decline in the fitting degree of traditional indicators to the economy, posing a risk to accurate economic forecasting[3]. - Geopolitical tensions may exceed expectations, potentially impacting economic stability and growth[3].

2026年开年，北京二手房市场平稳开局。据北京商报记者统计，1月北京二手房网签量达15082套，连续 三个月站稳1.4万套关口，市场企稳态势巩固。从市场表现来看，入学需求的释放推动部分区域客源心 态发生转变，此前持观望态度的购房者加速入市，相关片区单月成交量连续三个月保持在60—70套区 间。与此同时，在以刚需房源为成交主力的区域，随着高性价比刚需房源供应减少，改善型房源的成交 量出现回升。 连续三个月站上1.4万套关口 北京商报记者统计数据显示，2026年1月北京二手房网签量达15082套，至此，北京二手房网签量已连续 三个月稳定在1.4万套以上。 具体来看，北京二手房市场自2025年11月起持续回暖，2025年11月至2026年1月，二手房网签量依次为 14446套、17200套、15082套。 合硕机构首席分析师郭毅表示，从需求端来看，市场成交已连续三个月稳定在15000套左右的水平， 2026年1月一线城市成交更是连续三周突破4000套，预示楼市"小阳春"期间网签量有望维持高位，市场 成交将实现稳健企稳。 成交量稳定的背后，业主定价趋于理性是重要因素之一。石景山区西黄村片区某头部中介经纪人陈少华 向北 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced the largest single-day drop since 1980, with spot gold falling over 12% to a low of $4682 per ounce, closing down 9.25% at $4880 per ounce [1] - Silver prices also saw a historic decline, with spot silver dropping over 36% to a low of $74.28 per ounce, closing down 26.42% at $85.259 per ounce [1] - The decline in precious metals was triggered by the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which eased concerns about the Fed yielding to pressure for lower interest rates [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [2] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises reported PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, both below the critical threshold [2] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the need to consolidate the stable and positive momentum of the capital market, focusing on risk prevention, strong regulation, and high-quality development [3] - The CSRC plans to expand the types of strategic investors and clarify minimum shareholding requirements, allowing various institutional investors to participate as strategic investors [6] Group 4: Company Performance Forecasts - Aerospace Development is expected to report a net loss of between 1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan for 2025 [9] - Deep Blue Technology anticipates a net loss of between 12.581 billion to 15.573 billion yuan for 2025, with potential delisting risk [10] - Zhongji Xuchuang forecasts a net profit increase of 89.50% to 128.17% year-on-year for 2025 [11] - New Yisheng expects a net profit increase of 231% to 249% year-on-year for 2025, with fourth-quarter performance exceeding expectations [11] - Cambrian Technology predicts a net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [11] - Wentai Technology anticipates a net loss of between 9 billion to 13.5 billion yuan for 2025 [12] - Overseas Chinese Town A expects a net loss of between 13 billion to 15.5 billion yuan for 2025 [13] Group 5: Analyst Insights - CITIC Securities suggests that the recent ETF redemption wave has ended, and a recovery window for large-cap stocks is opening, with a focus on sectors with pricing power [13] - Shenwan Hongyuan predicts a range-bound market, with short-term adjustments expected as the market digests previous gains [14] - Guojin Securities emphasizes the importance of monitoring price increases across various sectors, including oil, chemicals, and consumer goods [18] - Industrial and resource sectors are expected to show clear paths to profit recovery, with attention on short-term pullback opportunities [24]

Core Viewpoint - The recent acceleration in sector rotation within the A-share market indicates a shift in investment strategies, with previously underperforming sectors like liquor and real estate gaining traction while high-performing sectors like technology and new energy are experiencing corrections [1][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent ETF redemption wave has largely ended, signaling a potential recovery window for large-cap stocks as funds shift from small-cap to large-cap and from thematic to quality styles [1]. - The market is currently experiencing a structural adjustment, with high turnover rates leading to increased volatility, particularly in sectors like metals, which have seen significant trading volume [2][11]. - Despite short-term adjustments, the underlying fundamentals supporting the spring market rally remain intact, driven by domestic economic improvements and favorable policies [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The performance of cyclical sectors is strong, supported by a recovery in profit margins, as China's policy focus shifts from expansion to quality enhancement [1]. - The liquor and real estate sectors have shown notable performance, reflecting a convergence in market structure as the spring rally progresses into its latter stages [8]. - The AI sector continues to be a focal point for growth, with expectations of significant earnings improvements, while traditional sectors like chemicals and power equipment remain solid investment choices [7][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - February is anticipated to continue the spring market rally, with structural opportunities emerging from macroeconomic catalysts and corporate earnings forecasts [2][4]. - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of a stable upward trajectory supported by robust liquidity and favorable seasonal trends [4][6]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a balanced performance across various sectors, with an emphasis on both growth and value opportunities as the market evolves [8].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI declined more than seasonally with supply - demand converging and enterprise - scale differentiation intensifying, while price indices rose. The service industry PMI slightly dropped and the construction industry's prosperity significantly declined, thus more efforts are needed to promote economic - stabilizing policies [1][10][34]. - In January, the shock of sentiment was gradually digested, and the bond market recovered after adjustment. However, there were still some constraints for a smooth short - term decline. The 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to the central part of the oscillation range in February. Two structural investment opportunities are recommended: the allocation opportunities of 5Y government - financial bonds and 3 - 5Y general - credit bonds, and the spread - compression opportunities such as 10Y CDB - 10Y Treasury bonds [4][34][35]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - month PMI Data Overview - Manufacturing PMI declined by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3% in January, returning to the contraction range and being weaker than the seasonal average. The production index expansion slowed, demand was under pressure, price indices rose, and enterprises replenished inventory passively with a decline in purchasing willingness [10]. - In the non - manufacturing sector, the service industry PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5%, and the construction industry's business activity index dropped by 4.0 percentage points to 48.8%, both showing different degrees of deviation from seasonal performance [11][14]. 3.2 Manufacturing: Demand - side Operation Under Pressure, Both Price Indices Rising - **Production**: The manufacturing PMI production index was 50.6% in January, down 1.1 percentage points month - on - month, weaker than the seasonal level. The slowdown was due to factors like cold weather and approaching Spring Festival, especially the over 4 - percentage - point decline in the consumer goods manufacturing production index [17]. - **Demand**: The new order index and new export order index of manufacturing PMI decreased by 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points respectively. The "new order - new export order" index dropped to 1.4%. Seasonal factors and external policy changes affected demand, but the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reporting insufficient market demand decreased [19]. - **Enterprise Scale and New Kinetic Energy**: The PMI of large, medium, and small enterprises decreased by 0.5, 1.1, and 1.2 percentage points respectively. New kinetic energy industries continued to lead, while traditional industries' prosperity declined [20]. - **Price**: Affected by multiple factors, the main raw material purchase price index and ex - factory price index were 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, up 3.0 and 1.7 percentage points month - on - month. The index difference reached 5.5 percentage points, compressing the profit space of mid - and downstream enterprises [23]. - **Inventory**: The raw material inventory index decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the finished - product inventory increased by 0.4 percentage points. The economic kinetic energy index decreased by 2.0 percentage points, and the purchasing volume index dropped to 48.7%. The start of the replenishment cycle depends on the recovery of market demand [24]. 3.3 Non - manufacturing: Slight Decline in Service Industry PMI, Significant Decline in Construction Industry - **Service Industry**: In January, the service industry PMI slightly declined. The strong support from the financial industry, the stable development of new kinetic energy, and the good performance of some consumption - related service industries maintained its stability. However, the real - estate industry's business activity index fell below 40.0%, and Spring Festival consumption may boost the consumption - related service industries [29]. - **Construction Industry**: Due to cold weather and the approaching Spring Festival, the construction industry's business activity index decreased by 4.0 percentage points to 48.8% in January. Both housing construction and civil engineering construction activities slowed down, and the off - season characteristics may continue in February [32]. 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - In January, after the shock of sentiment was digested, the bond market recovered. The 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped to the lower limit of the 1.8% - 1.9% oscillation range. With insufficient broad - money expectations and increased local - bond supply in February, the 10Y Treasury bond yield may return to the central part of the oscillation range. Two parts of structural investment opportunities are recommended [4][34][35].

Group 1 - The report suggests that the market remains resilient, with opportunities in consumer and real estate sectors, particularly during the pre-Spring Festival consumption peak, recommending investments in sectors like liquor, film, and tourism [4][18] - The bond market is expected to see the 10-year government bond yield fluctuate between 1.80% and 1.85% around the Spring Festival, with a need for new triggers to break below 1.80% [4][8] - The manufacturing PMI for January fell to 49.3%, indicating a return to contraction territory, primarily due to weak demand [8][9] Group 2 - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises showed a marginal improvement, with December profits turning from a decline of 13.1% in November to a growth of 5.3%, indicating a recovery trend [10] - The real estate sector is transitioning to a high-quality development phase, with regulatory measures in place to control debt levels among real estate companies, suggesting a shift from scale expansion to quality growth [11] - The report highlights the potential for structural opportunities in high-dividend assets such as banks, coal, oil, public utilities, and transportation [22] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the manufacturing PMI and its correlation with domestic economic policies and export market performance for future trends [9] - The commodity market is experiencing significant short-term shocks, with gold expected to maintain value for low-cost purchases amid macroeconomic fluctuations [17][18] - The report notes that the demand for copper is likely to increase as manufacturing resumes post-Spring Festival, with low inventory levels at the Shanghai Futures Exchange [8][17]

2026 年 02 月 01 日 宏观研究团队 走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国 ——宏观周报 | 何宁（分析师） | 沈美辰（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524110002 | |  国内宏观政策：建设金融强国 | | 过去两周（1 月 18 日-1 月 31 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： 金融监管政策方面，政策聚焦大宗商品交易监管。近期商品价格波动明显，上期 所、广期所、上金所等交易所多次发布调整涨跌停板、下调交易限额、上调保证 金比例等多项举措。 贸易方面聚焦美方表示在 4 月之前，中美双方有机会开启新一轮经贸谈判，商务 部对此回应表示，中方愿与美方用好中美经贸磋商机制，管控分歧、推进合作。 海外宏观政策：特朗普提名凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席 经济增长方面，国家发改委有关负责人介绍，2026 年宏观政策要把发力点放在 做强国内大循环上，全方位扩大国内需求。将优化"两新"政策的支持范围和补 贴标准；研究制定出台扩大内需战略实施 ...