1信期货有限公司 2025年11月18日 铝产业链日度数据跟踪 一、氧化铝 价格72美元/干吨,环比0美元/干吨; (2) 11月18日现货价格指数为2844元/吨,环比-1元/吨; (3) 11月18日期货库存255462吨,环比+1808吨; (4) 11月18日进口盈亏为-1元/吨,环比-6元/吨; 二、电解铝 lite 3 - 2024 -- 2023 2025 350000 300000 200000 100000 -50000 01/02 02/02 03/10 04/16 05/26 07/01 08/05 09/09 10/17 11/16 12/16 三、铝合金 (2) 11月18日生铝精废价差为1701元/吨,环比-53元/吨;型材铝精废 价差2454元/吨,环比-52元/吨; 图表 1: 国产铝土矿价格 元/吨 600 550 500 450 01/02 01/27 02/21 03/17 04/11 05/07 06/01 06/26 07/21 08/15 09/09 10/11 11/05 11/30 12/25 图表 2:几内亚铝土矿价格 美元/吨 2025 == 2024 · ...

Core Viewpoint - Shihezi City is undergoing a significant transformation towards green energy and new industrial structures to address existing industrial challenges and meet national carbon neutrality goals [1][2]. Energy Structure Transformation - Shihezi City is committed to a green energy structure, with a focus on renewable energy sources such as solar power, which has a utilization rate exceeding 1400 hours annually [4]. - The establishment of the New Power Group has integrated regional electric grid resources, aiming for a total installed capacity of over 6 million kilowatts by the end of the year, with solar power accounting for over 46% [3][4]. Industrial Upgrading - The city is enhancing traditional industries through green technology, such as the transformation of coal into various chemical products, reducing raw material consumption by 60% and CO2 emissions by 40% [7]. - A new energy industry cluster is forming, with the green electricity-related industries achieving an annual output value exceeding 100 billion yuan, creating thousands of jobs [6][8]. Agricultural Innovation - Shihezi City is leveraging technology in agriculture, with significant investments in modern agricultural equipment and practices, including the establishment of a smart agricultural machinery production base [10][11]. - The city has developed a robust seed breeding program, significantly increasing crop yields and diversifying agricultural production [11][12]. Emerging Industries - The low-altitude economy is being developed, with companies like Tianyu Aviation signing significant contracts for drone production, indicating a growing market for low-altitude applications [13][14]. - The city is fostering a technology-driven environment, with over 117 high-tech enterprises and numerous projects aimed at integrating green energy with digital technologies [14][15]. Future Goals - Shihezi City aims to establish a carbon peak pilot park, focusing on the full-chain development of photovoltaic, energy storage, and hydrogen industries to create a modern green industrial cluster [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 35.22 [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to continue its high profitability and high dividend policy, supported by a strong capital structure and stable performance in the aluminum sector [1][4] - The planned placement of up to 400 million shares at HKD 29.2 per share aims to raise a maximum of HKD 11.68 billion, which will be used to optimize the capital structure and support domestic and overseas project development [2][4] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns through significant share buybacks and consistent high dividend payouts, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 45% since 2020 [3][4] Summary by Sections Capital Structure and Project Development - The placement will primarily fund domestic and overseas projects and further optimize the company's debt structure, with existing capacities of 6.46 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 19 million tons of alumina domestically, and 2 million tons of alumina capacity in Indonesia [2][4] Shareholder Returns - The company has executed a significant share buyback strategy, spending HKD 2.6 billion to repurchase 18.7 million shares in the first half of the year, with plans for an additional buyback of at least HKD 3 billion [3][4] Profitability Outlook - The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to maintain profitability despite downward pressure from alumina prices, with a tightening supply-demand balance anticipated by 2026 [4][5] - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 25.63 billion, RMB 25.43 billion, and RMB 25.76 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE ratio of 12X for 2025 [5][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest national carbon market quota allocation plans for steel, cement, and aluminum smelting are released, which are expected to boost carbon prices, and carbon prices are likely to recover at an accelerated pace. The potential buyer demand in the market may increase by over 100 million tons in the remaining month of this year, and the actual procurement demand of the three industries is estimated to be around 30 million tons [5]. - MEG is in a weak mid - term trend, with short allocation recommended, and the monthly spread maintains a reverse arbitrage. The supply is expected to return in the future, and there is a pattern of supply - demand surplus, resulting in insufficient upward momentum [6][7]. - The repair market of treasury bond futures has reached its limit. The subsequent market is expected to show a steeper curve and a bearish trend with fluctuations. The probability of scenario one (equity market recovery, bond market under pressure) is relatively high [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Carbon Market - The 2024 and 2025 national carbon market quota allocation plans for steel, cement, and aluminum smelting are released. In 2024, the free - allocated quotas equal the quotas to be cleared, and the basic carry - over volume is increased from 10,000 tons to 100,000 tons. In 2025, the overall balance of the three industries is maintained, and the adjustment coefficient of the carbon emission intensity coefficient is expanded from 10% to 15% [5]. MEG - The load of the synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol unit has decreased from 80% to below 70% in the previous two weeks, but some device overhauls have ended, and new devices are put into production. The monthly import is expected to exceed 600,000 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate, and the polyester load declines in December, resulting in a supply - demand surplus [6][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market had a repair market due to weak economic data and a decline in global risk appetite. Currently, it is difficult to stimulate the long - end price to continue rising. The bond market curve is expected to become steeper, and the market trend is bearish. There are two scenarios in the future, with scenario one (equity market recovery, bond market under pressure) having a higher probability [8][9]. Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, and silver is in a volatile adjustment [12]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices are under pressure due to increased internal and external inventories; zinc is in a range - bound oscillation; lead prices are restricted from falling due to reduced inventories; tin prices are falling from a high level; aluminum shows a slight stabilization, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; nickel prices break through the support level and are under pressure to oscillate, and stainless steel prices are suppressed by weak reality but have limited downward space [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Carbonate lithium may have a short - term correction; industrial silicon may see production cuts to support prices in the future, and polysilicon is in a weak and volatile pattern; iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation; rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a wide - range oscillation; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese experience a weakening market sentiment and supplementary price drops; coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation; logs are in a volatile and repeated state [12]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil has fully priced in short - term negatives, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking process in the producing areas; soybean oil is oscillating strongly; soybean meal and soybeans are in an adjustment and oscillation; corn is oscillating; sugar is in a range - bound arrangement; cotton prices are still suppressed by the pressure of new cotton listing; eggs show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; live pigs' price increase expectation due to cooling fails, and the pressure is gradually released; peanuts require attention to the spot market [12][15].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-19 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 | 12.80 | | 202511 ...

Core Viewpoint - US stock markets saw declines with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq dropping over 1%, while Chinese concept stocks rose by 0.42% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong's three major indices opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.09%, the National Index up by 0.19%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.37% [1] - Major technology stocks in Hong Kong rebounded, with Baidu opening over 2% higher due to a more than 50% increase in Q3 AI business revenue, exceeding expectations [1] - Other tech stocks such as NetEase rose over 1%, while Tencent and Meituan also showed positive performance [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The automotive sector saw a rebound after consecutive declines, with Xpeng Motors rising by 1.8% [1] - Software, gold, and lithium battery stocks experienced gains [1] - Conversely, the airline, electric power, and aluminum sectors mostly remained sluggish [1]

Core Viewpoint - Glencore has reduced its stake in Century Aluminum by 10% to 33%, benefiting from increased profits in local aluminum smelting due to U.S. import tariffs on aluminum, resulting in several million dollars in gains [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Glencore is the largest shareholder of Century Aluminum and supplies alumina to the company while purchasing nearly all of its North American aluminum products for U.S. customers [1] - The reduction in Glencore's stake comes after the U.S. government raised aluminum import tariffs to 50% on June 4, aimed at encouraging domestic aluminum production [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Century Aluminum is the largest primary aluminum producer in the U.S., with a production of 690,000 tons of aluminum in 2024 [1] - According to Trade Data Monitor, U.S. aluminum imports are projected to be 3.94 million tons in 2024, indicating a significant market size [1] - Producers must ensure that their product prices cover the tariffs to continue shipping aluminum to the U.S. [1]

行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 18 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 17 日沪铝延续回落走势，主力 2601 收盘报 21725，下跌 1.14%，总持仓较上 一交易日减少 41911 至 741668 手，处于历史高位水平。现货上，铝价虽有所下行 但绝对价仍处于较高位置，下游维持按需采购，日内华东报平水，中原贴水-140， 华南贴水-150。进口窗口关闭，现货进口亏损收窄至-2000 元/吨左右。国产矿相 对坚挺，几内亚矿价低位徘徊，氧化铝运行产能保持高位，过剩压力显著，但随 着月均价下行北方的高成本企业已经有亏损减产风险，氧化铝成本支撑逻辑逐渐 凸显，关注低位企稳的可能性。电解铝海外供应收紧逻辑仍存，冰岛铝厂因电气 设备故 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the wealth and business operations of Zhang Gang and his family, highlighting their significant financial standing and the operations of Xinfeng Group, which has a revenue of 302.89 billion yuan in 2024 [4][8]. Group 1: Company Overview - Xinfeng Group, based in Chao Ping, Shandong, is a major player in the aluminum industry, controlling the entire supply chain from bauxite mining to aluminum processing [6][8]. - The company has made substantial investments in acquiring upstream resources, including a 40% stake in the largest lead-zinc mine in China for approximately 5.5 billion yuan [6][8]. - Despite its size, Xinfeng Group remains private, not listed on stock exchanges, and does not publicly disclose financial statements, which raises questions about its operational transparency [6][14]. Group 2: Financial Structure and Funding - The ownership structure of Xinfeng Group is straightforward, with Zhang Gang holding 51% of the shares through Chao Ping Xinyou Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. [9][10]. - The company has secured significant bank loans, including a 2.4 billion yuan credit line for a heating project in Jinan [16][18]. - As of March 2025, Xinfeng Group had a total bank credit limit of 38 billion yuan, indicating strong financial backing despite not being publicly traded [19][20]. Group 3: Historical Context and Growth - Xinfeng Group's origins trace back to a thermal power plant established in 1972, which later transitioned into aluminum production in the late 1990s [10][12]. - The company has undergone several name changes and structural transformations, ultimately leading to its current ownership model, which excludes institutional investors [10][14]. - The group has historically relied on employee fundraising for capital, offering high returns to investors, which has fostered a strong internal funding mechanism [20][24].

Core Points - The European Commission plans to restrict aluminum scrap exports to prevent a shortage of raw materials necessary for decarbonization in the EU aluminum industry [1][3] - The export volume of aluminum scrap from the EU is projected to reach a record 12.6 million tons in 2024, a 50% increase compared to five years ago, with most of it being sent to Asia [1] - The U.S. tariffs on aluminum, particularly the 50% import duty on aluminum products and a 15% duty on scrap, have led to increased imports of scrap into the U.S. and reduced exports, making EU supplies more attractive to Asian buyers [1] Industry Insights - The EU has started monitoring export situations since July and will assess the need for action [2] - The new measures to address aluminum scrap exports are expected to be implemented by spring 2026, aiming for a balanced approach that considers the interests of producers, recyclers, and downstream industries [3] - Aluminum plays a crucial role in decarbonization efforts, as recycling aluminum consumes only 5% of the energy required to produce aluminum from bauxite [3] - The recycling industry argues that the export of scrap is a result of insufficient domestic demand and the EU's limited capacity to process mixed waste [3] - Aluminum is widely used across various sectors, including transportation, construction, and electronics, due to its lightweight, corrosion resistance, excellent conductivity, and 100% recyclability [3] Market Dynamics - Global aluminum supply and demand are tightening due to tariffs and production restrictions in China, leading to fluctuations in aluminum prices [5] - Current LME aluminum prices hover around $2,800 per ton, remaining at the highest levels since 2022, with analysts predicting prices could exceed $3,000 per ton [5]