以下文章来源于远川科技评论 ，作者徐珊珊 远川科技评论 . 刻画这个时代（的前沿科技） 本文来自微信公众号： 远川科技评论 （ID：kechuangych） ，作者：徐珊珊，编辑：李墨天，题图 来自：视觉中国 削减万亿政府开支的小目标尚未达成，特斯拉的业绩瘦身却疗效显著。马斯克宣布告别白宫前夕，特 斯拉交出史上最差季报：净利润暴跌71%，汽车收入同比骤降20%，陷入实质亏损状态。 去年，在大选中慷慨解囊的马斯克荣膺"第一兄弟"，特斯拉在资本市场气势如虹，一度逼近全球汽车 制造商市值总和的一半。 但和"转型"同时出现的词，往往是"阵痛"。 失效的金手指 2015年2月，特斯拉财报不及预期，马斯克在电话会上劝投资机构"看长远"：十年后，特斯拉的市值 会和现在的苹果持平[2]。 当时特斯拉市值"只有"250亿美元，而苹果刚成为首家市值突破7000亿美元的科技公司。十年后，特 斯拉市值超过1万亿美元，而且是跌下来的。 2015年，马斯克称特斯拉市值将在十年后达到7000亿美元 如何给特斯拉估值一直是美国资本市场最复杂最深奥的问题之一，2010年特斯拉上市时，马斯克就 打定主意与燃油车企划清界限：我们与苹果或谷歌的距离 ...

1. 马斯克认为特斯拉已完成逆转，并表示计划五年后仍担任CEO。相比薪酬方案，他更在意的是对公司的控制权。 2. 马斯克不打算让SpaceX涉足武器领域，并对发展任何类型的武器持否定态度。他同时表示，星链"有可能"未来会上市。 3. 马斯克支持对AI进行监管，但强调要适度。他形容监管者就像体育比赛中的裁判："裁判不能比球员还多。" 4. 马斯克淡化了自己在DOGE中的利益冲突问题，并否认在华盛顿拥有巨大权力。他表示，未来将减少政治献金。 5月20日消息，在当地时间周二于多哈举行的卡塔尔经济论坛上，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克接受了彭博社主持人米莎尔·侯赛因 （Mishal Husain）的线上访谈。 在这场远程对话中，马斯克承诺，未来至少五年将继续领导这家电动汽车制造商。他的表态回应了近期部分投资者对于他是否仍将重心 放在特斯拉的质疑。过去几个月，马斯克在协助美国总统唐纳德·特朗普推动所谓"政府效率部"（DOGE）计划方面投入了大量时间和精 力。而特斯拉股价今年以来波动明显，年初至今累计下跌超过12%。 马斯克表示，此举主要是为了确保对公司的控制权。他强调，这并非出于经济利益，而是为了保障公司未来的发展方向不 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk anticipates that Tesla and xAI will continue to purchase chips from semiconductor giants Nvidia and AMD, with xAI planning to establish a factory with 1 million GPUs in Memphis [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - xAI has installed 200,000 GPUs at its Colossus facility in Memphis, which Musk claims is currently the world's most powerful training cluster [1]. - Tesla's Dojo supercomputer in Buffalo is being utilized for training its autonomous driving and Optimus robot systems [1]. - xAI has spent approximately $191 million in 2024 and $36.8 million by February 2025 on Tesla Megapacks, a utility-scale energy storage system [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Musk believes that the current limiting factor for AI development is chips, but predicts that by mid-2026, the primary constraint will shift to electrical equipment, leading to a fundamental power shortage for AI companies [2]. - Musk noted that China currently invests more in power generation than the U.S., although he asserts that the U.S. still holds an advantage in breakthrough innovations [2]. - Environmental concerns have been raised regarding xAI's reliance on natural gas turbines for powering its supercomputers, which may violate the Clean Air Act and local pollution permits [2].

Group 1: Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reaffirms a bullish outlook on Tesla, setting a base target price of $410 and a bullish scenario target of $800, indicating strong potential for stock price appreciation within the next 12 months [1][8] - The analysis highlights Tesla's position as a key beneficiary in the AI era and the U.S.-China autonomous driving technology competition, driven by the widespread adoption of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system and the development of a Robotaxi network [1][6] Group 2: Valuation and Business Segments - Morgan Stanley suggests that Tesla's high market valuation cannot be solely justified by traditional automotive profits, as investors currently value its automotive business at $50-100 per share, similar to how Amazon and Apple were undervalued in their early days [2][8] - The analysis breaks down Tesla's potential revenue streams, estimating a total valuation of $800 in a bullish case, with significant contributions from Tesla Auto, Tesla Energy, Mobility services, and Network Services [3] Group 3: AI and Robotics Potential - Tesla is positioned to benefit significantly from advancements in AI, particularly through its Dojo supercomputer and Optimus humanoid robot, which are expected to integrate with its FSD technology [5][10] - The humanoid robot market is projected to be larger than the current global automotive market, with estimates suggesting a potential market size of $1 trillion by 2050 [10][19] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The ongoing U.S.-China competition in autonomous driving is seen as a major catalyst for Tesla's valuation and growth, with Tesla's FSD system expected to penetrate the market through subscription models [6][22] - Traditional Western automakers are increasingly looking to collaborate with Chinese EV manufacturers, which could enhance Tesla's position in the market by leveraging its extensive data and AI capabilities [23]

马斯克20日线上出席由彭博社主办的卡塔尔经济论坛时，接受火药味十足的采访。在被追问是否今后五 年内继续担任特斯拉CEO时，马斯克放言，如果他"死了"才不可能留任。 马斯克还说，他已为政治选举投入足够多资金，"今后将大幅削减"政治投入，除非能让他看到这样做的 正当理由。《纽约时报》称，这是迄今为止马斯克就是否有意"继续使用其千亿美元计的财富在美国政 坛表达其右翼世界观"的最明确表态。 马斯克在去年的联邦选举周期内投入超过2.9亿美元，为美国共和党籍总统唐纳德·特朗普胜选立下汗马 功劳。但特朗普政府就职后，马斯克"烧钱"助选的举措遭遇反弹。他捐助2500万美元支持的一名保守派 法官在"摇摆州"威斯康星州最高法院法官补选中惨败。马斯克在民意调查中的不受欢迎程度也逐渐增 加。 马斯克有意"淡出"政坛 仍将执掌特斯拉至少五年 海洋 美国企业家、"政府效率部"负责人埃隆·马斯克20日表示，他"今后将大幅削减"对政治选举的投入；如 无意外，今后五年内还将继续担任电动汽车公司特斯拉的首席执行官（CEO）。 按美国《纽约时报》和路透社说法，这是马斯克有意暂时退出美国政坛前台、回归其商业帝国的最新信 号。 据报道，与今年前几月频 ...

Group 1 - Elon Musk stated that Tesla and xAI will continue to purchase chips from semiconductor giants Nvidia and AMD [1] - xAI has installed 200,000 GPUs at its Colossus facility in Memphis and plans to build a $1 million GPU factory nearby [1] - Musk emphasized that the current limitation for AI development is chips, but he predicts a shift to "electrical equipment" as a limiting factor by mid-2026 [2] Group 2 - Local officials praised Musk's decision to build a factory in Memphis, viewing it as a transformation into a "high-tech manufacturing center," despite community protests regarding environmental concerns [2] - xAI has spent approximately $191 million and $36.8 million on Tesla Megapacks in 2024 and February 2025, respectively [3]

Core Insights - The Morgan Stanley China Summit is set to begin this week with over 2,800 participants, reflecting a more optimistic market sentiment compared to last year, which was focused on hope for policy shifts and growth stabilization that have since materialized [1] - The consensus for EPS growth for the MSCI China Index is projected at 8.3% for 2025 and 11.8% for 2026, with potential upside risks driven by increased AI applications [1][2] Group 1: Investment Themes - Three key investment themes highlighted by Morgan Stanley include: (1) AI innovations in enterprises, particularly in robotics and autonomous driving; (2) consumer demand supported by government policies; (3) the current state and future trajectory of US-China relations [2][10] Group 2: Market Positioning - Emerging market funds have returned to neutral positioning in Hong Kong/China markets, with a median overweight of +0.2 percentage points, ending a two-year low allocation period [4] - Global and EAFE funds remain significantly underweight in the Chinese market, requiring approximately $475 billion in long positions to adjust to neutral [4] Group 3: Market Performance - The MSCI China Index has risen 19% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 Index (+14%) and emerging markets (+10%), with a year-to-date increase of 16% [5][9] - Recent performance has lagged slightly, with a 9% increase in the past month compared to the S&P 500's 15% rise [5] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - The MSCI China Index's P/E ratio is currently at 12.6x, and P/B ratio at 1.6x, indicating valuations are no longer a barrier to market growth [6] - There are still significant value opportunities, particularly in the consumer discretionary sector, which is trading at a 30% discount to its 10-year average [6][11] Group 5: Consumer Sector Insights - The Chinese government is shifting focus from supply-side growth to boosting demand, which is crucial for EPS growth in consumer companies [10] - There is a notable disconnect between the earnings growth and stock performance of leading Chinese consumer companies, presenting attractive buying opportunities [11] Group 6: AI and Innovation - The focus on AI applications is expected to grow, with significant interest in "physical AI" such as robotics and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) [14][15] - Companies like UBTECH and Unitree are leading in the humanoid robotics space, with a projected market size of $5 billion for humanoid robots [14] Group 7: US-China Relations - The strategic competition between the US and China extends beyond trade, with deep-rooted geopolitical tensions and a spectrum of potential outcomes ranging from a grand bargain to a new cold war [18][20][22] - The current geopolitical landscape poses risks for companies operating in both markets, with implications for their strategic decisions and operations [18]

Group 1 - The core issue of sustainable development is balancing climate change and economic growth, requiring a redefinition of "growth" to focus on resilience, innovation, and low-carbon economic models [3][6][17] - Countries should implement clear policy frameworks such as carbon pricing and clean energy investments to transition from carbon-intensive economies to low-carbon innovations [3][15][19] - The retreat of corporate sustainability commitments highlights the need for businesses to align their models with systemic risks and invest in long-term sustainable practices [7][18][21] Group 2 - China has shown global leadership in sustainable development, particularly in solar energy, electric vehicles, and battery technology, but still faces challenges due to its reliance on coal [9][22][23] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China must integrate sustainability into their core strategies to enhance competitiveness and contribute to international sustainability standards [10][25][26] - The future of sustainable leadership will depend on collective efforts to navigate complexity, with a focus on trust, systems thinking, and long-term public value [11][27][28] Group 3 - Multilateral cooperation remains crucial for sustainable development, with emerging regional and bilateral partnerships complementing existing frameworks [12][29][30] - The role of technology, especially AI, is significant in shaping future sustainability efforts, but it also raises governance and inequality concerns that need to be addressed [4][28] - A comprehensive support system across finance, policy, and industrial strategy is essential to make sustainable actions commercially viable and strategically attractive [8][21][30]

Group 1 - Elon Musk expects Tesla and xAI to continue purchasing chips from semiconductor giants like Nvidia and AMD [1] - xAI has installed 200,000 GPUs at its Colossus facility in Memphis and plans to build a $1 million GPU factory nearby [1] - Tesla's Dojo supercomputer in Buffalo is being used to train its autonomous driving and Optimus robot systems [1] Group 2 - Local officials praise Musk's decision to build a factory in Memphis as a transformation into a "high-tech manufacturing hub," but there are community protests regarding the environmental impact [2] - Musk predicts that the current limitation for AI development will shift from chips to electrical equipment, with a potential "fundamental power shortage" by mid-2026 [2] - Musk acknowledges that while China is investing more in power generation, the U.S. still holds an advantage in breakthrough innovations [2] Group 3 - Tesla and xAI are collaborating, with xAI spending approximately $191 million and $36.8 million on Tesla Megapacks in 2024 and early 2025, respectively [3]

需要一些监管，但不要太多。 1、5月20日，特斯拉首席执行官（CEO）马斯克通过线上出席会议的方式表示，他打算减少政治支出 （政治捐赠）。 2、马斯克表示，他致力于在五年内担任特斯拉CEO，致力于维护特斯拉（在电动汽车领域的）领导地 位，特斯拉正在扭转颓势。他还预计星链（Starlink）项目未来会上市，但并不着急。马斯克表示，他 打算推进对OpenAI的诉讼。 马斯克认为，与美国总统特朗普政府效率部（DOGE）并不存在利益冲突。 ...