过去几周，美联储主席鲍威尔持续面临来自特朗普政府的施压，要求美联储大幅降息至1%水平。而尽 管美联储目前依然迟迟按兵不动，但美债市场上的一些迹象却显示，在特朗普第二任期内，美联储大幅 降息或许绝非是一幕难以想象的场景…… 他们的比较对象是2年期和30年期国债收益率。在该称为"蝶式价差"策略的计算中，5年期收益率被乘以 两倍，再减去两年期和30年期收益率之和。目前这一计算结果为接近-100个基点，处于自2021年初以来 的区间低端。 高盛利率策略师在最新的报告中就发现，5年期美债相比起其他期限的国债而言，在历史上很少像现在 这样昂贵——只有美联储降息至零的那些时期例外。 周三，5年期国债收益率报约3.78%，仍处于自2022年初以来的高位区间。不过，债券市场中常见的相 对价值计算方法——即通过将收益率与较短和较长期限的债券收益率进行比较来评估显示，五年期美债 的估值目前正处于历史高位。 高盛策略师William Marshall和Bill Zu在周二发布的一份报告中写道，"美国国债市场当前的一个显著 特征是5年期国债的高估状态。" 不过，高盛团队认为这种情况不太可能持续下去。 基于对美联储降息的预期，五年期美债 ...

高盛利率策略团队最新分析指出，除非美联储将基准利率降至零，否则当前五年期美国国债的估值水平在历史上极为罕见。截至周三，五年期美债收益率报 3.78%，仍接近2022年初以来的区间高位——彼时美联储政策利率下限尚处于零水平。但通过债券市场常用的相对价值评估模型（基于两年期与30年期美债 收益率的蝶式价差分析）显示，五年期品种的收益率已处于历史性高位。 高盛策略师威廉·马歇尔与比尔·祖在8月5日发布的报告中强调，当前美债市场的核心特征持续聚焦于"五年期收益率的丰沛程度"。其采用的蝶式价差模型通 过"五年期收益率×2 -（两年期+30年期收益率）"的公式计算，当前结果接近-100个基点，这一数值已触及2021年初以来形成的波动区间下限。 值得注意的是，五年期美债今年成为表现最强的品种，这主要得益于降息预期的支撑，而长期债券则因持续通胀压力和美国预算赤字扩张面临收益率上行风 险。高盛团队补充道，这种分化或许也反映着市场预期：随着美联储领导层明年更迭，政策路径可能在2026年年中后转向更为鸽派。 数据显示，自去年末以来，五年期美债收益率已累计下行60个基点，两年期品种下行52个基点，而三十年期收益率几乎未现变动，进一步 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，7月以来，美元指数在贬值周期中出现反弹行情，但随着7月非农数据的出炉戛然而止，全球市 场亦随之大幅震荡。该行认为，上半年政策冲击下，美国经济已经在6月触底，并在7月有改善迹象。债务发行潮也已经在7月开启，正在逐 渐吸收美元流动性。往前看，关税对通胀的影响可能开始逐渐显露，叠加美元流动性收紧，可能在8-9月间不利于美股表现，10年期美债利 率也可能快速触底并逐步上行至4.8%附近。但从全年或更长期的角度来看，随着财政对货币干预越发明显，美元流动性的再度宽松可能是 大势所趋，叠加财政对基本面的托底，该行认为风险资产长期来看仍具潜力，美元下行周期也将持续。 中金公司主要观点如下： 从美元指数看资金流、基本面与美元流动性 美元指数的涨跌，可以反映跨国资金流、基本面和美元流动性等多方面因素。 从长期的视角来看，美元指数强弱反映了美元资产的配置需求。过去两年，美元指数持续在美国财政、贸易双赤字走阔的背景下维持强 势，反映的是美股AI信仰下跨国资金持续流入美国的影响，而今年4月对等关税冲击带来的市场恐慌，整体拉低了美元指数的震荡区间，这 反映了资金在美国和其他市场间的再平衡正在发生。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that E Fund Management Co., Ltd. has increased its stake in China International Capital Corporation (CICC) by purchasing 926,000 shares at an average price of HKD 19.1115 per share, totaling approximately HKD 17.6972 million [1] - Following this transaction, E Fund's total shareholding in CICC has risen to 114,897,200 shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 5.99% to 6.04% [1][2]

美股目前接近历史高位，强劲的企业财报和对降息的押注压过了对全面关税影响的担忧。在经济增长可能放缓的信号显现之际，投资者重新涌入科技巨 头和人工智能交易。 高盛交易员警告，尽管美国经济衰退概率高达30%，但全球股市仍保持强劲走势，因为在当前市场动能面前"做空几乎显得不合常理"。"关键在于市场无 法看到足够远的未来，这就是为什么它会忽视经济衰退风险。" 对美国经济衰退风险充耳不闻，本轮全球股市牛还能坚持多久？ 高盛宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone表示， 尽管美国经济衰退概率高达30%，但全球股市仍保持强劲走势，因为在当前市场动能面前"做空几乎显得不合 常理"。 流动性充裕推动市场乐观情绪 Schiavone在给客户的最新报告中指出： "关键在于市场无法看到足够远的未来，这就是为什么它会忽视经济衰退风险。" 他认为，投资者可能会忽略 劳动力市场放缓的可能性，转而专注于强劲的流动性以及人工智能和财政信贷扩张等结构性增长主题。 掉期交易员目前预期美联储到2026年中期将降息超过100个基点。大量短期国债发行向货币市场注入流动性，使得资金供应充足。与此同时，快钱投资 者在标普500指数从4月关税驱动的抛售中反弹后 ...

智通财经APP获悉，高盛宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone表示，美国经济衰退的可能性为30%，这听起来像 是一个危险信号，但全球股市仍然活跃，因为与市场势头相反的押注"几乎显得不合常理"。 Paolo Schiavone在一份报告中表示："关键点在于，市场无法看得足够远。这就是为什么它会忽视衰退 风险。"他认为，投资者可能会无视潜在的劳动力市场放缓，而是将焦点放在充裕的流动性、以及人工 智能和财政信贷扩张等结构性增长主题上。 在强劲的企业盈利和对降息的押注掩盖了广泛关税影响担忧的背景下，美国股市接近历史高位。与此同 时，尽管经济增长可能正在放缓的数据信号出现，投资者仍纷纷回流科技巨头和人工智能概念板块。 掉期交易员目前预计，到2026年年中，美联储将降息逾100个基点。随着短期国债大量发行向货币市场 注入流动性，现金储备极为充裕。与此同时，自标普500指数从4月关税引发的抛售中反弹后，短线资金 已大举入市。 Paolo Schiavone表示，这些趋势跟随型投资者(CTA)现在掌控着大部分"热钱"股权流动。这导致市场出 现短视迹象，因为"他们的单一策略('让赢家跑')几乎不给基本面看空者留下空间"。他补 ...

对美国经济衰退风险充耳不闻，本轮全球股市牛还能坚持多久？ 高盛宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone表示，尽管美国经济衰退概率高达30%，但全球股市仍保持强劲走势，因为在当前市场动能面前"做空几乎显得不 合常理"。 Schiavone在给客户的最新报告中指出："关键在于市场无法看到足够远的未来，这就是为什么它会忽视经济衰退风险。"他认为，投资者可能会忽 略劳动力市场放缓的可能性，转而专注于强劲的流动性以及人工智能和财政信贷扩张等结构性增长主题。 这位高盛交易员表示，由于短期策略盛行且波动性受到抑制，很少有人愿意与仍然完整的上升趋势作对。他指出，市场正显现出短视的迹象，因 为趋势跟踪投资者"单一的操作手册('让赢家继续跑')为基本面看空者留下的空间很小"。 在这种环境下，Schiavone认为阻力最小的路径仍然是向上，这解释了为什么市场能够在经济衰退风险升高的背景下保持强势。 流动性充裕推动市场乐观情绪 掉期交易员目前预期美联储到2026年中期将降息超过100个基点。大量短期国债发行向货币市场注入流动性，使得资金供应充足。与此同时，快钱 投资者在标普500指数从4月关税驱动的抛售中反弹后大举入市。 Schia ...

Group 1: National Grid and Electricity Demand - National Grid's electricity load reached a historical high of 1.233 billion kilowatts from August 4 to 6, an increase of 53 million kilowatts compared to last year's peak of 1.180 billion kilowatts [1] - The load is expected to remain above 1.2 billion kilowatts on August 7, with a potential decrease later in the week due to rain and cooler temperatures [1] Group 2: Gaming Laptop Market - The Chinese consumer gaming laptop market saw a year-on-year growth rate of 24.3% in Q2 2025, significantly outpacing the overall consumer PC market [1] - This growth is driven by the demand for high-performance devices from university students and core gaming enthusiasts, as well as the rapid evolution of gaming content [1] Group 3: Real Estate and Office Leasing - Adidas will establish its new Greater China headquarters in a 32,400 square meter office building in Shanghai's West Bund, expected to be completed in Q1 2026 [2] - This leasing transaction is one of the largest in Shanghai's Grade A office market in 2023 [2] Group 4: Bankruptcy and Financial Performance - Claire's, a fashion jewelry manufacturer, filed for bankruptcy protection for the second time since 2018, with estimated assets and liabilities between $1 billion and $10 billion [2] - Evergrande Real Estate Group has recently been executed for over 1.67 billion yuan, with a total of over 55.9 billion yuan in outstanding execution amounts [2] Group 5: Financial Results - Jerry Holdings reported a net profit of 1.241 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.04% [6] - Tiantan Biological's net profit for the same period was 633 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.88% [7] - Shunbo Alloy achieved a net profit of 177 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 110.56% [8] Group 6: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.45% with a trading volume of 1.73 trillion yuan, indicating a broad market rally with over 3,300 stocks rising [9] - PEEK material concept stocks and military stocks saw significant gains, while pharmaceutical stocks experienced a downturn [10]

Core Insights - The recent employment data signals a potential weakening in the U.S. labor market, contrary to the prevailing perception of strength [1][3] - Goldman Sachs has revised down the non-farm employment numbers for May and June by a total of 258,000, marking the largest two-month adjustment since 1968 [1][3] - A significant downward revision of 550,000 to 950,000 is anticipated in the upcoming annual benchmark revision, which could reshape market views on labor market strength [1][4] Employment Data Adjustments - The monthly adjustment of 258,000 alters the market's assessment of employment growth for May and June, revealing cracks in the narrative of continuous job expansion [3][4] - The scale of the upcoming benchmark revision is expected to be unprecedented, potentially ten times larger than the previous adjustment of 50,000 in January 2023 [4] Diverging Indicators - Other employment-related indicators, such as the NFIB small business survey, JOLTS job openings data, and the ECI employment cost index, are showing signs of fatigue, indicating a slowdown in hiring and job demand [5] - This inconsistency in data is raising concerns in the market regarding the robustness of the labor market [5] Implications for Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has previously relied on the narrative of a strong labor market to justify maintaining high interest rates; however, if the downward revisions are confirmed, it may necessitate a reassessment of economic resilience [5][6] - Current market expectations suggest a high probability (over 90%) that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in September, which could accelerate if the labor market is found to be overestimated [6] Economic Outlook - The lagging effects of consecutive interest rate hikes over the past two years may be starting to manifest in the labor market, potentially leading to more dovish sentiments [7] - The downward revision of non-farm data challenges market consensus and could exert pressure on expectations for a soft landing of the U.S. economy, adding complexity to future Federal Reserve policy decisions [7]

Core Viewpoint - A 30% probability of a U.S. economic recession may seem alarming, but global stock markets remain resilient due to current market momentum, making short-selling appear illogical [1] Group 1 - The market is unable to see far enough into the future, which is why it tends to overlook recession risks [1] - Investors may be ignoring the potential slowdown in the labor market, focusing instead on strong liquidity and structural growth themes such as artificial intelligence and fiscal credit expansion [1]