来源：同壁财经 美联储降息预期下，中国资产大涨，隔夜纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.87%，理想汽车、哔哩哔哩涨超6%，阿里巴巴涨1.92%。 海外主动资金再度回流，EPFR数据显示，截至9月10日，港股与ADR一周净流入6402万美元，时隔5周再度回流。 场内热门ETF方面，港股科技50ETF（159750）近20日获资金净流入1.17亿元。 华泰证券认为，虽然恒生指数今年以来大涨30%引发广泛关注，但事实上在美元贬值和油价下跌的金融条件宽松下，全球股市几乎都在上行。 往后看，全球金融流动性或继续趋于宽松，不仅仅因为美联储降息，还有全球财政货币的协同、美国金融去监管等，全球资产受益，人民币相 对美元还有补涨空间。港股作为中国离岸人民币资产同样受益于全球流动性充裕和外资回流。从PB-ROE框架下看，港股与全球其他资产比处 于性价比中游水平，同样并未显著高估。 数据来源: Wind,截至2025.9.12 6 指数介绍 中证香港科技指数 (CNY) (931574CNY00.CSI) 简称 港股科技指数(CNY) . 主要覆盖50家市值较大、研发 投入较高且营收增速较好的科技公司。行业分布较为广 泛,不仅集中于互联网 ...

Group 1: Industry Index Pool Construction - The report outlines the construction of an industry index pool that combines investability and representativeness, focusing on passive products tracking strong industry attributes [10][12]. - Since 2020, the scale of industry ETFs has experienced explosive growth, increasing from 85.8 billion yuan at the end of 2019 to over 310 billion yuan by the end of 2020, and approaching 900 billion yuan by August 2025 [10]. - The report categorizes various industry ETFs, highlighting that TMT, financial real estate, and pharmaceutical sectors have surpassed 100 billion yuan in ETF scale [10]. Group 2: Economic Prosperity Investment Practices - The report discusses the calculation of expected ROE growth for industries based on analysts' profit forecasts, comparing two fiscal years (FY1 and FY2) [20][21]. - It emphasizes that the FY2 grouping shows stronger monotonicity in performance compared to FY1, indicating better returns for the former [23][24]. - The backtesting period for the economic prosperity factor spans from January 1, 2018, to September 12, 2025, with a focus on marginal changes in industry index prosperity [27]. Group 3: Economic Trend Resonance Strategy - The economic trend resonance strategy combines fundamental marginal improvements with capital consensus, utilizing trend factors to quantify market sentiment [36][38]. - The constructed economic trend resonance portfolio has achieved an annualized return of 12.33% since 2018, outperforming the CSI 800 index by 11.13% [40][42]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate stands at 64%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.30 [45]. Group 4: Economic Trend and Crowding Avoidance Strategy - The strategy integrates economic trend analysis with crowding avoidance to mitigate risks associated with overheated trading [49]. - The three-dimensional strategy has yielded an annualized return of 12.80% since 2018, exceeding the CSI 800 index by 11.60% [52][54]. - The portfolio's monthly excess return rate is 62%, with a profit-loss ratio of 1.47 [57]. Group 5: Current Industry Characteristics - As of August 2025, the report identifies industries that align with the economic trend resonance and crowding avoidance strategy, including the transportation index, home appliances, livestock, media, and oil and gas sectors [60]. - The expected growth rates for these sectors range from 1.1% to 9.6%, with varying levels of crowding and valuation metrics [60].

证 券 研 究 报 告 杠杆资金净流入重回高位 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年9月16日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 偏股型公募新发份额 私募备案规模 北向成交占比 两融资金净流入 股票型ETF净申购 产业资本净减持 自媒体A搜索热度 新开户数量 本周 上期 1）资金供给端重回扩张：杠杆资金净流入重回高位，偏股型公募新发小幅下降，ETF净申购流出扩大，回购金额降 至历史低位； 2）资金需求端产业资本净减持规模扩张至历史高位，南向资金连续四月周均百亿以上净流入，累计净流入近4300 亿。 • 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征 ...

敬请阅读末页的重要说明 科技主题投资策略样本外表现优异 ——主题投资策略表现跟踪 风险提示：政策和市场环境可能发生变化，模型可能失效。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@cmschina.com.cn 罗星辰 S1090522070001 luoxingchen@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 9 月 16 日 定期跟踪 ❑ 科技主题股票池筛选：报告从研发、专利、基金持仓、行业、等多个维度筛 选科技主题股票池。股票池最新数量约为千只，行业以计算机、电子、医药 生物、机械设备等为主。构建的科技主题指数跑赢科技龙头等市场主流指数， 且回撤相对较低。 ❑ 科技择时框架：在择时层面，基于宏观流动性和估值等维度，构建科技板块 择时策略。择时策略年化收益约 21%，相对科技指数超额年化收益约 14%， 最大回撤约 15%。 ❑ 科技选股因子框架：基于四维度（估值、基本面、技术面、风格）选取共 16 个因子构建选股框架。估值维度选取市盈率、市净率、市销率类因；基本面 维度选取 S ...

Core Viewpoint - The current PE valuations of various industries are at historically high levels, indicating potential investment risks, particularly in coal, automotive, steel, media, retail, electronics, computing, and real estate sectors [1][7]. Valuation Levels - The current Buffett Indicator for A-shares is at 87.14%, which is considered relatively high and above the safe zone [5][25]. - Major broad market indices have PE valuations (TTM) exceeding 20%, with specific indices like CSI 300, SSE 50, and others at percentile levels of 85.15%, 90.79%, 97.37%, and above, suggesting high valuation risks [6][12]. Industry-Specific Valuations - The PE valuations for the food and beverage, and agriculture sectors are below the 20th percentile of their historical levels, at 12.01% and 14.32% respectively, indicating potential investment opportunities [7]. - The PE valuations for coal, automotive, steel, media, retail, electronics, computing, and real estate are at 80.06%, 81.76%, 82.81%, 84.16%, 90.11%, 92.84%, 97.82%, and 100.00% percentiles respectively, highlighting significant investment risks in these sectors [1][7]. Market Overview - The total market capitalization of listed companies in Shanghai is approximately 621.55 billion, with an average PE ratio of 15.78 [21]. - In Shenzhen, the total market capitalization is around 416.68 billion, with an average PE ratio of 30.65 [22]. Industry Valuation Levels - The PE valuation levels for various industries show significant variation, with agriculture at 14.95, basic chemicals at 12.52, and steel at 5.69, while sectors like media and computing are at 19.49 and 34.65 respectively [35][39]. - The PB valuation levels also vary, with agriculture at 2.02, basic chemicals at 1.41, and steel at 0.73, indicating differing levels of valuation across sectors [39][41].

| 基础化工 | | | | 长华化学 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢铁 | -1.46 | 63.37 | -9.48 | 金岭矿业 | -4.12 | | 农林牧渔 | -2.27 | 119.88 | -17.03 | 天域生物 | -9.95 | | 有色金属 | -2.67 | 697.99 | 1.08 | 豫光金铅 | -6.02 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:29） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子 | 1.29 | 1897.57 | -20.38 | 普冉股份 | 20.00 | | 商贸零售 | 1.08 | 214.04 | 49.96 | 供销大集 | 10.15 | | 计算机 | 0.86 | 833.78 | -10.13 | 汉邦高科 | 12.75 | | 汽车 ...

Key Recommendations - The report highlights a significant improvement in short-term loans for enterprises, with a notable increase in demand for short-term financing driven by a slight recovery in manufacturing and the implementation of interest subsidy policies for service industry loans [6][7][9] - The overall economic data for August indicates a continued slowdown, necessitating further policy support to stimulate growth, particularly in investment and consumption sectors [12][13][14] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors are under scrutiny due to potential U.S. restrictions on drug development collaborations with China, which could reshape the global supply chain dynamics [17][19][20] - The non-bank financial sector shows a steady increase in public fund holdings, with China Pacific Insurance planning to issue convertible bonds to enhance its capital strength [21][24] - The electronics industry is experiencing a mild recovery, with Apple launching the iPhone 17 series, which is expected to drive new replacement demand [26][28][29] Group 1: Banking Sector Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the social financing scale increased by 8.8% year-on-year, while the growth rate of RMB loans was 6.6%, indicating a stable lending environment [6][7] - The government continues to push for increased financing through government bonds, with a notable increase in government debt issuance in August, which supports the overall social financing growth [8][9] - The report suggests that future credit growth will focus more on optimizing the structure rather than just increasing total volume, with an emphasis on supporting small and medium enterprises and innovation-driven sectors [9][11] Group 2: Economic Data Analysis - August retail sales growth slowed to 3.4% year-on-year, reflecting a decline in consumer demand, particularly in the goods retail sector [12][13] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of only 0.5%, indicating a significant drag on economic performance from the investment side [12][14] - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with new home sales dropping by 10.6% year-on-year, highlighting the ongoing pressures in the housing market [16] Group 3: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Sector - The pharmaceutical sector's performance was negatively impacted by geopolitical tensions, with a decline in stock prices for Chinese biotech firms listed in the U.S. following news of potential U.S. restrictions [19][20] - Despite the challenges, the report emphasizes the resilience of the innovative drug sector, suggesting continued investment in high-performing stocks within this space [20] Group 4: Non-Bank Financial Sector - The public fund management sector has seen a steady increase in assets, with significant growth in equity and non-monetary funds [21][23] - China Pacific Insurance's issuance of convertible bonds is expected to enhance its competitive position and support its strategic initiatives [24] Group 5: Electronics Industry Developments - The launch of the iPhone 17 series is anticipated to stimulate demand in the electronics sector, particularly for high-end devices [26][28] - The report notes that the electronics industry is gradually recovering, with a focus on domestic production and supply chain resilience in response to international pressures [27][30]

Core Insights - The total margin financing balance for the ChiNext board reached 500.82 billion yuan as of September 15, 2025, marking a continuous increase for seven trading days, with a cumulative increase of 29.01 billion yuan during this period [1][2]. Margin Financing Overview - As of September 15, 2025, the margin financing balance was 498.47 billion yuan, which increased by 37.44 million yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. - The margin financing balance has seen a total increase of 290.12 million yuan over the last seven trading days [1]. Individual Stock Performance - Among the stocks with increased financing balances, 473 stocks saw an increase, with 76 stocks experiencing an increase of over 20%. The stock with the highest increase was XianDao Intelligent, with a financing balance of 54.66 million yuan, reflecting a 199.96% increase [2][3]. - Conversely, 471 stocks experienced a decrease in financing balances, with 75 stocks showing a decline of over 10%. The largest decrease was observed in Qide New Materials, with a financing balance of 1.40 million yuan, down by 35.94% [2][3]. Sector Analysis - The stocks with financing balance increases of over 20% were primarily concentrated in the power equipment, electronics, and machinery sectors, with 23, 16, and 8 stocks respectively [4]. - The average increase in stock prices for those with financing balance increases exceeding 20% was 15.15%, outperforming the ChiNext index [5]. Notable Stocks - The stocks with the largest increases in financing balances included Yangguang Electric Source (110.78 billion yuan, +36.82 billion yuan), XianDao Intelligent (54.66 billion yuan, +36.43 billion yuan), and Shenghong Technology (156.50 billion yuan, +26.49 billion yuan) [5][6]. - Stocks with significant decreases in financing balances included Dongfang Fortune (279.09 million yuan, -2.79 million yuan) and Zhonghang Chengfei (16.45 million yuan, -2.05 million yuan) [5][6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Beijing's GDP is projected to exceed 5 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, making it the second city in China to reach this milestone after Shanghai [2][3] - This development signifies a widening economic gap between Beijing and other major cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou [3][4] - Currently, there are 27 cities in China with a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan, and this number is expected to grow to 30 in the coming years [8][10] Group 2 - The economic growth of Beijing and Shanghai to 5 trillion yuan indicates a new competitive starting point for the top 10 cities in terms of GDP, all of which are expected to surpass 2 trillion yuan [12] - The significant GDP gap between Beijing, Shanghai, and cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen has been exacerbated by adjustments made during two national economic censuses, which led to substantial GDP revisions for Beijing and Shanghai [15][20] - The first census in 2018 resulted in GDP increases of 3.332 billion yuan for Shanghai and 2.786 billion yuan for Beijing, while the second census in 2023 saw increases of 4.185 billion yuan for Shanghai and 3.593 billion yuan for Beijing [16][18] Group 3 - The article discusses the challenges faced by Guangzhou and Shenzhen in catching up with Beijing and Shanghai, highlighting that the GDP ratio of Shenzhen to Shanghai has increased from 45% to 68% since 2000 [23] - The article attributes the widening gap to differences in administrative levels, national positioning, and industrial structures between these cities [25][31] - Beijing and Shanghai hold significant advantages due to their status as direct-controlled municipalities and their roles as national political and economic centers, respectively [33][34] Group 4 - The article emphasizes that while Beijing is not a financial center, its financial sector contributes over 800 billion yuan to its GDP, comparable to Shanghai [37] - Shenzhen is recognized for its strengths in digital economy and technological innovation, while Guangzhou is noted for its balanced industrial structure but needs to strengthen its emerging industries [44][46] - The future growth of these cities will depend on their ability to capitalize on emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, new energy, and biomedicine [47][48]

Core Viewpoint - The Wuxi High-tech Zone Comprehensive Bonded Zone is a crucial platform for open economy, significantly contributing to foreign trade, attracting foreign investment, and promoting industrial transformation and upgrading [2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The Comprehensive Bonded Zone has registered over 70 enterprises and attracted foreign investment totaling $23.8 billion [2]. - It accounts for 22.6% of Wuxi's total import and export volume, producing 14% of the world's storage chips, 20% of mechanical hard drives, 20% of surface-mounted ceramic capacitors, and 15% of optoelectronic conversion components [2]. Group 2: Industry Development - The zone is evolving into a new industrial pattern dominated by integrated circuits and electronic information, with multi-industry collaboration in international trade, testing and maintenance, and cross-border e-commerce [2]. - The zone's area will expand to 3.49 square kilometers, enhancing its capacity for industrial aggregation [4]. Group 3: Company Highlights - Jabil Electronics (Wuxi) Co., Ltd. has invested $98 million and employs approximately 3,500 people, focusing on high-end electronic product manufacturing and R&D [4]. - Finisar Optoelectronics Technology (Wuxi) Co., Ltd. anticipates a 101.8% year-on-year increase in import and export volume, reaching 16.24 billion yuan in 2024, and is launching a project to increase production of 800G optical modules [6]. Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - The zone is enhancing its "bonded+" functions, promoting new business models such as distribution, maintenance, and trade [6]. - The expanded zone aims to leverage tax advantages to attract global high-end resources and build a trillion-yuan industrial cluster in integrated circuits and electronic information [6].