Market Overview - The A-share market closed with an overall increase in January 2026, with major indices recording gains, particularly the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index leading the market [1] - Excluding new stocks, the average increase for individual stocks was nearly 7.8%, with a median increase of approximately 4.9% [1] Index Performance - There was a notable divergence in performance between large-cap and small-cap stocks, with small-cap indices like the Guozheng 2000 and CSI 2000 rising by 9.13% and 8.16% respectively, while large-cap indices such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300 had gains of less than 2% [3] - Among the 12 stocks with a market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion yuan, three-quarters experienced declines, with a median drop of 4.6% [3] Individual Stock Performance - Major banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Construction Bank saw declines of 8.58%, 12.50%, and 6.03% respectively [4] - Conversely, China Life Insurance recorded a gain of 9.27%, while Kweichow Moutai increased by 1.73% [4] Market Capitalization Analysis - In the small-cap segment, 78.7% of stocks with a market capitalization below 5 billion yuan increased, with an average gain of 7.8% and a median gain of nearly 5.8% [5] - Mid-cap stocks, particularly those with market capitalizations between 50 billion and 100 billion yuan, performed actively with an average increase of nearly 9% [5] ETF Trends - The performance of dividend-related ETFs showed divergence, with the low-volatility dividend ETF from Huatai-PB increasing by 8.00%, while the dividend ETF from Wanji recorded a decrease of 14.88% [7] Historical Trends - Historically, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown an 80% increase rate in February over the past decade, with an average gain of 2.1% [8] - In the past ten years, 30 out of 31 sectors in the Shenwan first-level classification recorded gains in February, with the banking sector slightly declining by about 0.3% [10]

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4] - As of January 30, 2026, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 1.14%, Shenzhen Component Index 1.62%, CSI 300 1.76%, CSI 500 2.68%, CSI 1000 2.55%, CSI 2000 3.34%, ChiNext Index 1.24%, and STAR 50 Index 2.99% [6][26] - Among the CITIC first-level industry indices, the sectors closest to their 250-day new highs are Communication, Oil & Petrochemicals, Building Materials, Nonferrous Metals, and Light Industry Manufacturing [9][26] Group 2 - A total of 1,606 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest number of new highs in the Machinery, Electronics, and Basic Chemicals sectors [2][14] - The sectors with the highest proportion of new high stocks are Nonferrous Metals (70.73%), National Defense & Military Industry (63.11%), and Oil & Petrochemicals (62.75%) [14][26] - The manufacturing and technology sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 513 and 497 stocks respectively [17][26] Group 3 - The report identifies 50 stocks with stable new highs, including Purun Co., Yaxiang Integration, and Yuanjie Technology, primarily from the cyclical and technology sectors [3][22] - The cyclical sector had the most new high stocks, particularly in the Basic Chemicals industry, while the technology sector saw the most in the Electronics industry [22][27]

Core Viewpoint - Runxin Technology (300493) expects a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, projecting a range of 54.55 million to 60.01 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 65% [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit of 54.55 million to 60.01 million yuan for 2025, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2] - The projected growth rate of 50% to 65% highlights the company's robust financial outlook [2] Group 2: Business Segments - Runxin Technology has experienced rapid revenue growth in the AIoT and automotive electronics sectors during the reporting period [2] - The introduction of various edge AI+ products and technological innovations has enhanced user experiences in intelligent scenarios [2]

Group 1 - The definition of R&D factor includes both expense and capitalized expenditures, with A-share companies fully disclosing R&D expenses since 2019 [2][6][32] - R&D expenses are analyzed using three factors: R&D expenses/market value, R&D expenses/revenue, and R&D expense growth rate, utilizing data from January 31, 2019, to December 31, 2025 [2][11][42] Group 2 - The R&D expenses TTM/market value factor shows strong predictive ability and stability, with an average IC of 0.04 and a Sharpe ratio of 1.27, indicating high risk-adjusted returns [3][12][43] - The R&D expenses TTM/revenue factor performs well in small-cap stocks, achieving a multi-long annual return of 19.91% in the CSI 1000 index, but carries significant drawdown risk [3][19][51] - The R&D expense growth rate factor has weak stock selection effectiveness, with average IC and Rank IC being very low, indicating it is ineffective in the CSI 300 index [3][22][56] Group 3 - A single-factor strategy using R&D expenses/market value resulted in a total return of 605.36% from January 31, 2019, to January 29, 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 by 556.49% [4][35][28] - The latest selected stocks based on the R&D expenses/market value strategy include China National Petroleum Engineering, BOE Technology Group, and Hisense Home Appliances [4][35][28] Group 4 - The R&D expenses TTM/market value factor is a typical growth style factor, showing positive stock selection effectiveness in most years from 2019 to 2025, particularly in 2022-2023 [17][47][48] - The analysis of factor correlations suggests that the number of rating agencies and operating cash flow/revenue are ideal auxiliary factors to enhance the R&D factor's effectiveness [23][25]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.96% to close at 4117.95 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.66% at 14205.89 points. The ChiNext Index, however, increased by 1.27% to 3346.36 points [1]. - Overall, there were 2449 stocks that rose and 2892 that fell, with a total trading volume of 28355 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 3945 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included Communication, Electronics, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishing, with respective gains of 3.44%, 0.68%, 0.65%, 0.54%, and 0.21%. Conversely, the sectors that experienced the largest declines were Non-ferrous Metals, Steel, Food and Beverage, Real Estate, and Computers, with declines of 7.80%, 2.83%, 2.78%, 2.47%, and 1.96% respectively [1]. Concept Sectors - The top-performing concept sectors today included Optical Modules (CPO), Optical Communication, Optical Chips, Biological Breeding, Advanced Packaging, and others, while Industrial Metals, Rare Earths, and Gold Jewelry saw a pullback [2][11].

报告要点 1）加仓选手：偏成长风格的平衡与调整，Q4加工业金属、军工电子、光伏设备，减电池、数字媒体、社交； 2）减仓选手：成长选手的价值转向，Q4加元件、白酒、煤炭开采，减通信设备、半导体、乘用车； 一、公募整体持仓变化：增配有色、通信，减配电子、医药 25Q4公募基金加仓行业：有色、通信等，减仓电子、医药等。从持仓市值占比的绝对值看，截至25Q4持仓市值前五行业：电子（23.9%）、电 新（11.5%）、通信（11.1%）、医药（8.2%）、有色（8.0%）。而持仓市值后五行业：综合（0.1%）、美护（0.1%）、纺服（0.2%）、社服 （0.3%）、环保（0.3%）。从持仓市值占比的环比变动看，25Q4公募加仓前五行业：有色（持仓市值占比提升2.1pct）、通信（1.8pct）、非银 （0.9pct）、化工（0.8pct）、机械（0.7pct）；减仓前五行业：电子（-1.6pct）、医药（-1.6pct）、传媒（-1.2pct）、电新（-0.9pct）、计算机 （-0.8pct）。 3）调仓选手：均衡配置选手的风格内调整，Q4加半导体、工业金属、保险，减消费电子、电池、国有行； 4）极致风格：最极致的成 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The top five sectors with the highest excess returns for long positions in January 2026 (excluding comprehensive) are Defense and Military, Communication, Agriculture, Home Appliances, and Electric Equipment & New Energy, with excess returns of 11.41%, 8.40%, 7.85%, 6.01%, and 4.98% respectively [2]. - Over the past year, the sectors with the highest average monthly excess returns (excluding comprehensive) are Real Estate, Home Appliances, Retail, Construction, and Defense and Military, with excess returns of 2.17%, 2.09%, 1.69%, 1.69%, and 1.58% respectively [2]. - The GAN_GRU factor has shown a mean Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.1107 and an annualized excess return of 22.36% from January 2019 to January 2026 [41]. - As of January 28, 2026, the latest IC for the GAN_GRU factor is 0.0003, with a one-year mean IC of 0.0553 [41]. - The top five sectors based on the recent IC performance of the GAN_GRU factor are Defense and Military, Construction, Real Estate, Banking, and Communication, with IC values of 0.3498, 0.2478, 0.2165, 0.1993, and 0.1976 respectively [41]. - The long position combination based on the GAN_GRU factor has shown the highest excess returns in the sectors of Defense and Military, Communication, Agriculture, Home Appliances, and Electric Equipment & New Energy [45]. Summary by Sections GAN_GRU Model Overview - The GAN_GRU model utilizes Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for processing time-series features and GRU for encoding these features into stock selection factors [4][13]. GAN_GRU Factor Performance - The GAN_GRU factor has demonstrated significant performance metrics, including a mean IC of 0.1107 and an annualized excess return of 22.36% [41]. - The recent IC rankings for various sectors indicate strong performance in Defense and Military, Construction, and Real Estate [41][45]. Long Position Combinations - The report lists the top ten stocks selected based on the GAN_GRU factor, including companies like Xinhua Insurance, Guanghong Technology, and Guangdong Expressway [50].

Group 1 - The overall change in public fund holdings shows an increase in allocation to non-ferrous metals and communications, while reducing allocation to electronics and pharmaceuticals. The top five industries with increased holdings are non-ferrous metals (up 2.1 percentage points), communications (1.8 percentage points), non-bank financials (0.9 percentage points), chemicals (0.8 percentage points), and machinery (0.7 percentage points). The top five industries with reduced holdings are electronics (-1.6 percentage points), pharmaceuticals (-1.6 percentage points), media (-1.2 percentage points), electric new energy (-0.9 percentage points), and computers (-0.8 percentage points) [1][8][12] Group 2 - The report categorizes funds into four types: increasing, decreasing, adjusting, and extreme style. The increasing funds focus on growth style, adding positions in industrial metals, military electronics, and photovoltaic equipment, while reducing positions in batteries, digital media, and social networks. Decreasing funds are shifting from growth to value, adding positions in components, liquor, and coal mining, while reducing positions in communication equipment, semiconductors, and passenger vehicles. Adjusting funds show a balanced configuration, adding positions in semiconductors, industrial metals, and insurance, while reducing positions in consumer electronics, batteries, and state-owned banks. Extreme style funds make internal adjustments within their styles, adding communication equipment and renovation materials while reducing consumer electronics and bioproducts [7][15][16] Group 3 - The report highlights that the consensus for selling includes bioproducts, internet e-commerce, consumer electronics, social media, batteries, and digital media, while the consensus for buying includes insurance, securities, chemical products, components, photovoltaic equipment, and industrial metals [15][16][18] Group 4 - The analysis indicates that increasing funds prefer large-cap and high-valuation stocks, while decreasing and adjusting funds focus on both growth and profitability. Extreme growth funds tend to hold small-cap, high-valuation stocks with pressured profitability, while extreme value funds focus on low-valuation, large-cap stocks with low earnings growth [7][18][25]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the convertible bond market in 2025 experienced a strong performance, following the equity market, with a total increase of nearly 20% by December 24, 2025, although it slightly underperformed compared to the broader A-share market which had a maximum increase of 31.9% [17] - The report highlights a significant shift in market style from defensive dividend stocks to technology growth stocks, driven by a recovery in risk appetite, which has led to an increase in the central price of convertible bonds and a compression of the conversion premium rate [8][19] - The supply-demand mismatch in the market is noted, with a slowdown in new bond issuance and a significant number of high-quality older bonds being redeemed, leading to a scarcity of quality assets and a heightened "old bond" phenomenon [8][25] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the macro liquidity environment is expected to remain accommodative, with potential support from both domestic and international monetary policies, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [9][10] - The report suggests that the commencement of a Fed rate-cutting cycle could reshape the asset allocation landscape, benefiting cyclical resource sectors and technology growth sectors, particularly in the AI industry, which is expected to replicate the growth trajectory of the mobile internet era [10][9] - The consumer sector is characterized by resilient earnings but facing valuation pressures, with low price-to-book ratios and stable return on equity providing a safety cushion for investments [10][9]

Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance on January 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.64% [1] - The CSI 1000 ETF (159845.SZ) fell by 1.07%, while other major indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 also experienced declines of 0.84%, 0.46%, and 1.48% respectively [1] ETF and Stock Performance - The CSI 1000 ETF's latest price was 3.405, with a decrease of 0.037, representing a drop of 1.07% [2] - Among the top 50 weighted stocks in the CSI 1000 index, notable gainers included Chuangzhong Technology (+7.22%), Jucheng Co. (+6.37%), and Changxin Bochuang (+5.47%), while Huayu Mining and Yahua Group saw declines of -10.01% and -8.23% respectively [2] Industry Analysis - In terms of industry performance, the electronics sector rose by 1.00%, while power equipment fell by 0.17%, pharmaceuticals decreased by 0.73%, computers dropped by 1.57%, and machinery increased by 0.32% [3] - The CSI 1000 ETF experienced a net outflow of 15.893 billion over the last five trading days and 37.948 billion over the last ten days, with the latest fund size at 16.526 billion, reflecting a decrease of 38.12 billion over the past month [3] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, citing stabilization in the labor market and inflation slightly above the 2% target as reasons for the decision [3] - Future monetary policy will be determined based on subsequent data and risk assessments, without a preset path for interest rate cuts [3] Investment Outlook - Looking ahead to February, the focus for industry allocation will be on signs of recovery and the unfolding of the spring market, emphasizing cyclical and technology sectors [4] - Recommended sectors for attention include electronics, media, machinery (automation and engineering), power equipment (batteries, grid equipment, photovoltaic equipment), basic chemicals, and social services [4] - The CSI 1000 index reflects the price performance of a selection of small-cap stocks in the A-share market, excluding those in the CSI 800 index, and is designed to provide insights into the performance of smaller, more liquid companies [4]