2025 年 6 月 10 日 商 品 研 究 沥青：跟随原油震荡偏强 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,519 | 0.28% | 3,512 | -0.20% | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,505 | 0.17% | 3,502 | -0.09% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2507 | 手 | 106,127 | (433) | 72,899 | (8,378) | | | BU2508 | 手 | 27,765 | 17,039 | 27,587 | 2,008 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 91510 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Maohua Shihua (000637) closed at 3.92 yuan on June 9, 2025, down 0.25% with a turnover rate of 2.57% and a trading volume of 94,600 hands, resulting in a transaction amount of 37.05 million yuan [1] - On June 9, the net outflow of main funds was 8.04 million yuan, accounting for 21.71% of the total transaction amount, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 9.67 million yuan, representing 26.11% of the total transaction amount [1] - The company's main business includes the production and sales of various petrochemical products such as polypropylene, liquefied gas, and industrial hydrogen peroxide [2] Group 2 - For Q1 2025, Maohua Shihua reported a main revenue of 788 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -35.07 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 20.28% [2] - The company's financial metrics indicate a total market value of 2.038 billion yuan, a net asset of 723 million yuan, and a debt ratio of 68.77% [2] - The company's gross profit margin stands at 3.6%, significantly lower than the industry average of 20.27%, indicating a challenging competitive position within the petrochemical sector [2]

文/雅琼 其实，中国共产党领导的中国人民，就像水浒中的武松，遇强更强，逢凶化吉，绝处逢生，中国人越是 遭到困境逆境，解决问题，化解危机的能力越强，这是中国人特有的特性，任何一个国家既比不了，也 学不来。 近年来，美国丙烷市场的变动可谓是波澜壮阔，从曾经的"我国"到如今转向卡塔尔，背后到底隐藏着怎 样的市场博弈？这不仅关乎能源供应的多样化，更是大国之间经济角力的缩影。 美国丙烷转向卡塔尔 2015年，美国将丙烷出口至我国，几乎占到其总出口量的50%，但随着中美贸易摩擦的加大，美国开始 逐步停止对我国的丙烷供应，转而与卡塔尔签订了长期合同，确保其能源供应的多样性。 对于美国来说，失去我国这个市场影响甚大，毕竟这里曾是其丙烷出口的最大阵地，丙烷作为石油化工 行业的重要原料，其市场需求量非常可观，美国不得不寻找新的出口市场，卡塔尔便是最佳选择。 卡塔尔毕竟是一个小国，其丙烷生产能力有限，很难完全弥补美国失去我国市场所带来的损失。美国还 在积极开发新的技术，力图降低丙烷的生产成本，提高其市场竞争力。 今年我国从美国那里进口的乙烷数量比去年同期下降了15%。这说明什么？说明其他货源正在补充这个 缺口，比如中东地区。中东国 ...

摘要：【图】2025年1-3月广东省煤油产量数据分析 2025年3月煤油产量统计： 煤油产量：109.6 万吨 同比增长：5.1% 增速较上一年同期变化：低79.4个百分点 据统计，2025年3月广东省规模以上工业企业煤油产量与上年同期相比增长了5.1%，达109.6万吨，增速 较上一年同期低79.4个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国高6.4个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 煤油产量489.8万吨的比重为22.4%。 详见下图： 2025年1-3月煤油产量统计： 煤油产量：308.3 万吨 同比增长：2.5% 增速较上一年同期变化：低69.1个百分点 据统计，2025年1－3月，广东省规模以上工业企业煤油产量与上年同期相比增长了2.5%，达308.3万 吨，增速较上一年同期低69.1个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国高3.8个百分点，约占同期全国规模 以上企业煤油产量1398.9万吨的比重为22.0%。详见下图： 图2：广东省煤油产量分月（累计值）统计图 图1：广东省煤油产量分月（当月值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调 ...

Report Title - Benzene Ethylene Weekly Report: EB: Supply-demand margin weakens, inventory stops falling, focus on raw material resonance opportunities [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although there is a strong expectation of OPEC+ production increase, the macro - environment is stable, and the peak season boosts, so oil prices maintain a volatile trend. On the pure benzene side, both domestic supply and demand increase, but supply increases more than demand. Due to the non - opening of the America - Asia arbitrage window and the successive return of maintenance devices in Japan and South Korea, high imports are expected to continue. The destocking of pure benzene port inventory is difficult, with relatively large year - on - year pressure, which drags down the styrene price. For styrene, weekly supply increases while demand decreases. Some upstream devices will resume production in June, and some downstream sectors enter the off - season. There are pressures in terms of profit and inventory on the 3S side, so it is difficult to effectively drive the styrene price. Styrene inventory stops falling and accumulates this week, and is expected to enter a volatile stage, mainly focusing on the absolute year - on - year level. Currently, the estimated valuation of styrene is still high. Considering the fundamentals of pure benzene, the valuation regression probably requires a downward correction of styrene. Therefore, maintain a short - selling idea for styrene, pay attention to raw material resonance opportunities in terms of rhythm, and be vigilant against macro risks [3] Strategy Recommendations Futures Strategy - Maintain a short - selling idea for styrene, with the upper resistance level for the near - month contract at 7400 [4] Option Strategy - Sell EB2507 - C - 7500 [4] Summary by Directory Pure Benzene 2025 Production and Investment Plan - Multiple companies in different provinces have plans for pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products in 2025. For example, Yulong Petrochemical in Shandong has a 100 - million - ton pure benzene production plan from 2024Q4 - 2025 and a 50 - million - ton styrene production plan in 2025Q1 [6] 2025 May - July Device Dynamics - Many companies' devices have maintenance plans from May to July 2025, such as Hubei Jin'ao's device, which stopped for maintenance on March 11 and is expected to restart in mid - May [8] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - From May to July 2025, the planned new pure benzene production capacity is about 1.33 million tons/year, and the downstream new production capacity is about 400,000 tons/year. The planned pure benzene shutdown involves a production capacity of 4.46 million tons/year, and the downstream shutdown production capacity is about 5.89 million tons/year. The net supply reduction is about 239,000 tons, and the net demand reduction is about 341,000 tons. Overall, inventory is expected to accumulate [9] Price and Profit - The prices of pure benzene in different regions and the price differences between different regions are presented in the report. The toluene disproportionation profit is relatively low [15] Downstream Situation - The weighted downstream operating rate of pure benzene has recently declined slightly. The styrene profit has rebounded significantly, while the profits of other products are still weak [36][43] Styrene and Its Downstream Spot and Futures - The spot price, basis, and monthly spread of styrene are presented in the report [53] Supply - The monthly and weekly production, operating rate, and profit of styrene are shown. Asia has multiple styrene device exits, and China is gradually changing from a net importer to a net exporter of styrene [58][70] Inventory - Styrene port inventory has stopped falling and continued to accumulate [71] Downstream Situation - The 3S production capacity growth rate is high, intensifying industry competition. The estimated weekly styrene consumption converted from 3S production has decreased. The downstream prices have weakened, and the profits are under pressure. The high - production inventory is higher year - on - year, indicating possible demand transmission resistance. After the implementation of tariffs, exports are likely to be restricted, and domestic demand should focus on subsidy stimulation [76][81][92]

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/05/30 | 395.10 | 440.25 | -0.25 | 574.08 | -133.83 | 16.18 | 45.15 | | 2025/06/03 | 397.26 | 449.90 | -2.56 | 599.32 | -149.42 | 16.85 | 52.64 | | 2025/06/04 | 391.22 | 442.85 | -2.37 | 589.89 | -147.04 | 16.42 | 51.63 | | ...

会议时间： 2025年6月10-11日 特别提示 微信机制调整，点击顶部"仪器信息网" → 右上方"…" → 设为 ★ 星标，否则很可能无法看到我们的推送。 我国石化产业面临深度调整阵痛期，供需矛盾和结构性矛盾问题突出。当前，大宗基础化学品和通用材料产能产量居世界首位，但高端产品短 缺，新能源产业、高端装备制造业等战略性新兴产业，存在"卡脖子"状况。在此背景下，国内炼化企业"油转化""油转特"已成主要趋势。 深度调整要以科技创新推动产业创新，加快新兴产业、未来产业培育的同时，分析技术的突破与应用需同步推进。为此，仪器信息网将于2025 年6月10-11日举办"第九届石油化工分析技术及应用新进展"主题网络研讨会，深入探讨该领域分析技术的最新进展与创新应用。 主办单位： 仪器信息网 会议全日程： | 06月10日 | 色、质谱技术在石化行业的应用 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 09:30 -- 10:00 | 基于气相色谱和高分辨质谱技术的原油全组分 | 史权 | 中国石油大学(北京) 教授/重质油全国重点 | | | 分子组成表征方法与应用 | | 实验室 | | Q ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, highlighting their high dividend characteristics [10]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand, high dividend stocks, and import substitution in the chemical industry, especially in light of the recent stabilization of international oil prices [6][17]. - It notes that the international oil price is expected to stabilize around $70 per barrel in 2025, which supports the outlook for companies with strong asset quality and high dividend yields [6][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the chemical industry is currently in a weak performance phase, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [20]. - It highlights specific sectors such as the tire industry, which is expected to perform well due to global positioning and tariff experiences [20]. - The report also identifies opportunities in import substitution for chemical products like lubricant additives and special coatings [20]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were observed in natural gas (up 14.76%), hydrochloric acid (up 9.39%), and synthetic ammonia (up 5.24%) [17][18]. - Conversely, products like adipic acid and coal tar saw notable declines, with adipic acid down 7.53% [17][18]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for various companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Xinyangfeng and Senqilin, with projected EPS growth [10]. - It lists several companies with strong dividend yields, such as Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group, which are expected to attract investor interest [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, highlighting their high dividend characteristics [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand, high dividend stocks, and import substitution in the chemical industry, especially in light of the recent stabilization of international oil prices [6][17]. - It notes that the international oil prices have shown a slight increase, with WTI crude oil priced at $64.58 per barrel and Brent crude at $66.47 per barrel as of June 6, 2025, indicating a positive outlook for companies with high dividend yields [6][17]. - The report suggests that the chemical industry is currently experiencing mixed performance across different sub-sectors, with some areas like the tire industry showing better-than-expected results [20]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as natural gas (up 14.76%) and hydrochloric acid (up 9.39%), while products like adipic acid and coal tar have seen notable declines [17][18]. - It recommends focusing on sectors that can benefit from import substitution, such as lubricating oil additives and special coatings, as well as companies involved in chemical fertilizers and coal chemical industries [8][20]. Price Movements - The report details the fluctuations in chemical product prices, noting that while some products have rebounded, others continue to decline, reflecting the overall weak performance of the industry [20][28]. - It mentions that the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to high supply pressures and weak demand, particularly in the urea and compound fertilizer markets [30][31]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating expected EPS growth for companies like Xinyangfeng and Senqilin, with respective PE ratios suggesting attractive valuations [10]. - It emphasizes the strong dividend yields of leading companies in the chemical sector, making them appealing investment opportunities in the current market environment [8][10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of LPG remain weak, with chemical demand in Shandong providing some support, but supply pressure is high in other regions and demand continues to be sluggish [1] - It is expected that the external sales volume will continue to increase and the inbound volume will decline. Chemical demand is expected to be supported in the short - term, and the PDH operating rate is expected to increase next week [1] - As the temperature rises, the combustion demand is expected to decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Price Changes - From May 30, 2025, to June 6, 2025, the prices of South China LPG decreased by 50 to 4550, East China LPG decreased by 12 to 4449, and Shandong LPG increased by 10 to 4590. The price of ether - after carbon four in Shandong decreased by 60 to 4580. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4449 [1] - The 07 contract basis of PG decreased by 21 to 351, and the 07 - 09 spread increased by 5 to 185 [1] External Market Conditions - FEI and MB are basically the same, CP is declining, and the oil - gas ratio is rising. The internal - external price difference is strengthening, especially PG - CP. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed, and the freight rate has a slight increase [1] Variety Spread and Profit Conditions - The production margin of PDH has improved but is still poor. The production profit of FEI is higher than that of PP. The profit of alkylated oil has increased, the profit change of gas - fraction etherification is small, and the profit of isomeric etherification has increased. FEI - MOPJ has declined, and the naphtha crack spread has little change [1] Fundamental Conditions - Port inventory has slightly increased, and docks are more active in reducing prices. Factory inventory has increased, and the factory inventory in Shandong has decreased due to chemical demand support. The arrival volume has increased (mainly in South China), and the external sales volume has increased significantly [1]