以下文章来源于财经天下WEEKLY ，作者财经天下 财经天下WEEKLY . 《财经天下》周刊官方账号，提供有品质的深度报道，讲述中国企业在时代浪潮中的精彩故事。 泰国富二代创办的if椰子水，凭借精准踩中健康消费趋势、轻资产的高效运营模式，以及差异化产品设 计等策略，在中国卖爆了，一年创收10个亿。最近，更是交了招股书，打算闯关港交所。不过，这个 椰子水老大躺着赚钱的好日子结束了，如今正在被9.9元中国同行绞杀。 图片来源：if天猫旗舰店 中国人买爆泰国椰子水 4月20日的晚上，北京朝阳区的一个健身房里，一场私教课结束后，30岁的张笑，拧开一瓶透明塑料瓶 装的椰子水，仰头灌下一大口。饮料进入喉咙后，她扫了一眼瓶身的配料表——100%椰子水。这款名 为if的椰子水，她近段时间以来常喝，因为没有任何添加剂。 距离她1000多公里的安徽，90后然然当天也下单了一箱if椰子水，这是她本月第三次采购，她家饮水 机旁上次购买的一箱if椰子水，如今只剩下一瓶。 if，是当下最火的椰子水，市场份额排名第一，是第二名超吉椰的四倍多。7年前，泰国富二代彭萨克 带领if进入中国市场时，很少有人能够想到，这个品牌会在多年后以迅猛之姿 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the functional beverage industry, highlighting its rapid growth and structural changes within the market [1]. Core Insights - The functional beverage sector is leading the growth in China's soft drink market, driven by health-conscious consumer trends and the demand for energy and nutritional products [15][20]. - The market for functional beverages is expected to grow significantly, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.3% from 2019 to 2024, increasing from RMB 111.9 billion to RMB 166.5 billion [17][20]. - Energy drinks dominate the functional beverage market, accounting for 66.9% of the total market share in 2024, while sports drinks are the fastest-growing segment [20]. Industry Status - The functional beverage industry is experiencing structural growth, with a notable shift towards healthier options, leading to a decline in traditional sugary beverages [11][12]. - The overall soft drink market in China is projected to reach RMB 1,250.2 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.7% from 2019 to 2024 [12][15]. - The market share of functional beverages within the soft drink category is expected to increase from 11.3% in 2019 to 13.3% in 2024 [16]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of offline consumption scenarios, which are crucial for building consumer loyalty in the functional beverage market [30][36]. - The growth of online sales channels is significant, with a projected CAGR of 14.0% from 2019 to 2024, although offline channels still dominate the market [32][35]. - The increasing disposable income of consumers is driving the demand for soft drinks, with per capita consumption in China expected to reach 197.8 liters in 2024, indicating substantial growth potential [39]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights a low concentration in the competitive landscape, with the top five companies holding a combined market share of 61.6%, leaving ample room for long-tail market opportunities [53]. - Eastroc Beverage leads the market with a 26.3% share, benefiting from its penetration in lower-tier cities and a large packaging strategy [53]. - The energy drink market is characterized by a dual oligopoly, with Eastroc and Red Bull dominating, while new entrants face challenges in establishing brand recognition and distribution networks [57]. Company Case Studies - Eastroc Beverage has shown explosive growth, with revenues increasing from RMB 69.78 billion in 2021 to RMB 158.39 billion in 2024, driven by its flagship product and innovative new offerings [62]. - Huabin Group, despite facing legal challenges, managed to maintain a revenue of RMB 210.9 billion in 2024, although its market share has declined significantly due to competition from local brands [70].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 3.287 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 666 million, up 4.41% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.128 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 22.69%, while the net profit was 247 million, increasing by 26.95% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 1.002 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.36%, and the net profit was 215 million, down 12.53% year-on-year [1] - Excluding the impact of the Spring Festival, the combined revenue for Q4 and Q1 was 2.13 billion, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.8% [2] Business Segment Performance - In 2024, the revenue from almond milk, nut walnut, and almond milk series was 3.19 billion, 80 million, and 10 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of +11%, -2%, and +249% [2] - The sales volume of almond milk reached 330,000 tons, with a volume increase of 11.5% and stable price per ton [2] Regional Performance - In 2024, the revenue from the northern, central, and other regions was 2.99 billion, 190 million, and 110 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 12%, 9%, and 3% [2] - The northern region saw a strengthening of its market position, with a net increase of 56 distributors [2] Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 20.3% [4] - The gross profit margin was stable, decreasing by 0.5 percentage points to 40.9% [4] - The increase in almond procurement costs due to weather conditions in 2023 led to a rise of over 30% in prices from Q4 2023, but prices dropped by over 30% starting Q4 2024 due to significant production increases [4] Cost and Expense Analysis - The sales expense ratio increased by 1.1 percentage points due to investments in e-commerce operations, new market development, and new product launches [5] - The management expense ratio rose by 0.6 percentage points due to increased share-based payment expenses [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch new herbal health drink products, leveraging the resource advantages of its "southward expansion" strategy [6] - The main business is expected to stabilize, with continued cost benefits from almonds anticipated in the first half of 2025 [6] - Revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 are 5%, 6%, and 4% respectively, with net profit growth of 7%, 8%, and 6% [6]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.287 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 253 million yuan, down 9.67% [1] - The brewing business generated revenue of 2.271 billion yuan, a decline of 15.42%, while the ready-to-drink segment saw revenue of 973 million yuan, an increase of 8.00% [1] - The Meco fruit tea brand achieved revenue of 780 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 20.69% [1] - The overall gross margin for the main business was 38.54%, up by 0.46 percentage points year-on-year [1] Brewing Business - The company trialed "original leaf light milk tea" and "original leaf milk tea" in select online and offline regions, receiving positive consumer feedback [1] - Future product optimization and upgrades will be based on market feedback [1] Ready-to-Drink Business - The company focused on enhancing its ready-to-drink product distribution in key urban areas, particularly targeting student demographics [2] - Collaborations with major snack retail systems have increased, leading to a significant rise in the number of stores and improved single-store sales in the snack channel [2] - The company is also expanding its dedicated ready-to-drink restaurant channel and enhancing its distribution capabilities [2] - The report noted a substantial increase in the degree of channel freezing and exploration of new automatic vending machine formats [2] Q1 2025 Performance - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 580 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 19.98%, and a net loss of 18.775 million yuan, compared to a profit previously [2] - Sales revenue from brewing products fell by 37.18%, while ready-to-drink product sales increased by 13.89% [2]

Financial Performance - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 0.0100 yuan for Q1 2025, a significant increase of 200% compared to -0.0100 yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 0.05 billion yuan, a remarkable turnaround from a net loss of 0.06 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing an increase of 183.33% [1] - Operating revenue reached 3.07 billion yuan in Q1 2025, up 31.76% from 2.33 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [1] - The return on equity improved to 0.42% in Q1 2025 from -0.48% in Q1 2024, marking a 187.5% increase [1] Shareholder Structure - The top ten unrestricted shareholders collectively hold 33,314.45 million shares, accounting for 46.6% of the circulating shares, with an increase of 105.41 million shares compared to the previous period [1] - The largest shareholder is China Jilin Forest Industry Group Co., Ltd., holding 21,625.41 million shares, which is 30.24% of the total share capital [2] - New entrants among the top shareholders include Fu Chun and Wang Xiaoyu, holding 578.00 million shares and 295.00 million shares respectively [2] Dividend Policy - The company has announced that it will not distribute dividends or transfer shares this time [3]

Core Points - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 70.90 million yuan in the first quarter of 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 44.04% [1] - The company's operating revenue for the first quarter was 853 million yuan, which is a decrease of 23.11% compared to the same period last year [1] - The basic earnings per share for the company stood at 0.04 yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core index, CN Consumption Composite Index, closed at 8775.28 points, with a monthly increase of 0.61%, a quarterly increase of 7.78%, and a year-to-date increase of 1.78% [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of different industry securities from mainland Chinese enterprises, classified according to the China Securities Index industry classification standards [1] - The top ten holdings in the CN Consumption Composite Index include Kweichow Moutai (27.04%), Wuliangye (7.02%), Yili (5.12%), Muyuan Foods (3.07%), Shanxi Fenjiu (2.96%), Luzhou Laojiao (2.64%), Wens Foodstuff (2.55%), Nongfu Spring (1.97%), Haitian Flavoring (1.96%), and Dongpeng Beverage (1.63%) [1] Group 2 - The market distribution of the CN Consumption Composite Index shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 54.65%, Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 34.46%, Hong Kong Stock Exchange for 10.65%, and other exchanges have negligible shares [2] - In terms of industry composition, the index is heavily weighted towards alcohol (50.76%), followed by food (21.30%), breeding (13.38%), soft drinks (6.02%), planting (3.20%), beauty care (2.71%), household goods (1.94%), and tobacco (0.58%) [2] Group 3 - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December, and can also be adjusted temporarily under special circumstances [3] - Adjustments to the index sample occur when there are changes in industry classification due to special events or when a sample company is delisted [3]

东四十条资本 . 聚焦股权投资行业人物、事件、数据、研究、政策解读，提供专业视角和深度洞见 | 创投圈有趣的灵魂 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 以下文章来源于东四十条资本 ，作者黎曼 从濒临破产到"中国能量饮料第一"。 作者丨 黎曼 来源丨 东四十条资本 在2025年的港股IPO热潮中，以"累了困了，喝东鹏饮料"广告语风靡全国的饮料巨头——东鹏饮料（集团）股份有限公司（下称"东鹏饮料"），正式向 港交所递交招股书，计划以"A+H"模式开启二次上市新征程。 递交招股书前，东鹏饮料的业绩走至高峰：2024年营收达158.3亿元，净利润达到33.26亿元，同比增长超60%。2024年，公司还大额分红了13亿 元。 实控人林木勤的身价也随之水涨船高。《财富杂志》数据显示，到2024年，东鹏饮料创始人家族预计将以总计68亿美元的净额位列全球富豪排行榜之 列，林木勤家族再次成为广东汕尾首富。 而这一切的开始皆源于早前一次对濒临破产的国有饮料厂的收购。2003年时，工人出身的林木勤魄力买下负债累累的老厂，靠走差异化道路，硬生生在 红牛的垄断阴影下撕开一道口子。 从广东大本营到全国400万家终端网点，东鹏饮料 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the health taxes landscape in India. Core Insights - The consumption of tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in India leads to significant public health challenges, with 1.6 million deaths and 49.3 million disability-adjusted life years lost annually. These products are major risk factors for noncommunicable diseases, responsible for 64.9 percent of all deaths in India as of 2019 [13] - Health taxes have been effective globally in reducing consumption and generating revenue while addressing market failures from negative externalities and internalities. India's current indirect tax system poses challenges due to its complexity and inconsistencies [13] - Reforming health taxes requires addressing inconsistencies, improving tax compliance, and introducing new tax structures based on the relative harm of each product [13] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report highlights the significant health and economic burdens associated with the consumption of demerit products in India, emphasizing the need for effective health taxes to mitigate these issues [22][27] Why Health Taxes Matter - Health taxes are justified due to significant market failures associated with demerit products, which lead to detrimental consumption patterns and economic burdens on society [28] - Taxation can correct negative externalities and internalities, enhancing welfare by reducing consumption to socially efficient levels [29][30] Consumption of Unhealthy Products in India - India is the second-largest consumer of tobacco globally, with approximately 267 million tobacco users, accounting for about 19 percent of the world's adult tobacco users [45] - The prevalence of alcohol consumption among adults in India was estimated at 17.1 percent in 2019, with significant gender differences [59] Economic Burden Associated with Unhealthy Products - The economic burden from tobacco-related costs is estimated at US$36.2 billion annually, while alcohol-related costs are around US$31.4 billion [13] Health Taxes in India - The current indirect tax system in India includes a national-level Goods and Services Tax (GST) on tobacco and SSBs, as well as state-level excise duties and VAT on alcohol, which presents challenges due to complexity and inconsistencies [13] - The report suggests increasing specific excise taxes, simplifying the tax structure, and conducting detailed state-level analyses of alcohol taxation [13] Challenges and Opportunities - The report identifies challenges in reforming health taxes in India, including knowledge gaps and the need for policy engagement priorities [6][27]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised the target price for Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) to HKD 33 while lowering the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 to 2027 due to slower-than-expected recovery in market share for packaged drinking water [1] Group 1: Sales and Market Share - The market share recovery speed for Nongfu Spring's packaged drinking water is slower than anticipated, leading to a 7% to 8% reduction in sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2: Profit Margins and Operating Expenses - The gross margin forecast has been slightly increased by 0.3 percentage points for 2025 to 2027 due to a higher contribution from the tea beverage segment, which has a higher gross margin [1] - Operating expense ratio forecasts have been lowered by 0.9 percentage points for the same period due to operational leverage effects [1] Group 3: Earnings Per Share and Target Price - As a result of the above adjustments, Morgan Stanley has decreased the EPS forecast for Nongfu Spring by 2% for 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price for Nongfu Spring has been raised by 3%, from HKD 32 to HKD 33, maintaining a rating of "in line with the market" [1]