Core Viewpoint - New York raw sugar prices have stopped declining due to market speculation that sugar mills will shift to using more sugarcane for ethanol production rather than for sweeteners [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The most active futures contract rose by 1.3% before narrowing its gains [1] - Prices have been on a downward trend in recent weeks, closing at a four-year low last Friday, primarily influenced by expectations of ample supply from major sugar-producing countries [1] Group 2: Supply Concerns - There are growing concerns that Brazil, the world's largest sugar exporter, may see its production affected by weak prices [1] - While most market estimates suggest Brazil will maximize its sugar production this year, sugar mills located far from port areas face risks due to higher transportation costs [1] Group 3: Production Shifts - These sugar mills may find producing biofuels more profitable, as biofuels are typically used for the domestic market [1]

Core Viewpoint - India is expected to increase sugar exports in the 2025/26 season due to a rebound in production, with surplus production anticipated for at least two consecutive years [1] Group 1: Production Outlook - Indian farmers and industry officials indicate that sugar production will see a recovery, leading to an increase in export capacity [1] - The country is projected to have a surplus in sugar production for a minimum of two years [1]

研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5734 | -1 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 341231 | -1177 -718 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 29443 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -21386 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内) ...

Group 1 - The total sugar production in China for the current sugar production period reached 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 12.03% compared to the previous year, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.69%, which is 6.52 percentage points higher year-on-year [1] - The average sugar price index from the Food and Agriculture Organization in May was 109.4 points, a decrease of 2.9 points (2.6%) month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of decline and 7.7 points (6.6%) lower than May 2024 levels [1] - In Inner Mongolia, sugar production reached 663,500 tons, an increase of 128,500 tons year-on-year, with a cumulative sales of 565,800 tons, up 90,700 tons year-on-year, and an industrial inventory of 97,700 tons, an increase of 37,800 tons year-on-year [1] Group 2 - From a fundamental perspective, improved weather conditions in Brazil are expected to boost sugar production, while domestic demand is entering a peak consumption season, particularly in Guangxi, where cumulative sales increased by 537,000 tons year-on-year [2] - Current spot prices in Guangxi remain firm at 6,090-6,180 yuan/ton, while futures prices are under pressure due to a contango structure, suggesting a cautious trading strategy with a short-term focus on selling at resistance levels [2] - Market expectations for sugar supply are bearish due to the upcoming production season in Brazil, while domestic sales have been strong, leading to a potential increase in import volumes [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the sugar market is "oscillating" [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market remains in a bearish cycle. From June to August, the external market is expected to remain weak due to large - scale production and supply during the peak crushing season in Brazil and optimistic production prospects in the Northern Hemisphere's major producing countries. However, the downside space of ICE raw sugar is limited, with an estimated operating range of 16 - 18 cents per pound. In the domestic market, as the arrival volume of imported sugar increases, the pricing of the market is expected to gradually shift to refined sugar. The Zhengzhou sugar market is expected to be mainly oscillating and weak, with the September contract estimated to fluctuate between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Purpose - To understand the procurement and production status of coastal sugar refineries, terminal consumption, the impact of substitutes, and the logistics and distribution status in sales areas, the analyst participated in the "2025 Fujian Regional Sugar Research Activity" from May 26th to 30th, aiming to answer questions such as the procurement of imported sugar by coastal refineries, the arrival and production rhythm, the market's view on the inverted spot price at ports, the impact of strict import controls on syrup and premixed powder, the impact of the macro - economic environment on terminal sugar consumption, the impact of substitutes on sugar consumption, and the industry's judgment on the future sugar market [10] 2. Research Summary - **Import procurement and production of refineries**: A central - state - owned company in Zhangzhou started production in March, and two other companies plan to start in June and mid - July respectively. It is estimated that a large amount of imported sugar will arrive in June, with a more concentrated arrival in July - August. The import cost of raw sugar is about 6,000 yuan per ton or higher. The issuance of import licenses has decreased year - on - year, but the utilization rate is high, and all licenses are expected to be used up [12][13] - **Fujian spot market**: The price difference between the Fujian port and the origin cannot cover the freight, showing an inverted state that has persisted for a long time. The current price of Guangxi sugar in Fujian is close to 6,300 yuan per ton, and the price of refined sugar ranges from 6,200 - 6,900 yuan per ton [14] - **Imported syrup and premixed powder**: Import controls on syrup and premixed powder are very strict this year. Although it may not completely eliminate imports, the overall volume is expected to be controllable [15] - **Liquid sugar project**: The production and demand of liquid sugar in China have increased in the past two years, but its production is restricted by raw material import quotas and licenses, and its application and promotion are limited by various factors such as equipment adaptation, short shelf - life, and specific logistics requirements [16] - **Domestic consumption situation**: The overall scale of sugar - containing foods is still growing, but due to the impact of substitutes, the domestic sugar consumption is difficult to increase. The consumption of candies is not ideal, while the scale of baked goods is growing, and the beverage industry shows a polarized situation [17][18] - **Consumption seasonality**: The summer is the peak season for cold drink consumption, followed by the Mid - Autumn Festival mooncake consumption season, and from August - September to the Spring Festival, the demand for snacks will pick up. The peak season sales of candies are more than twice that of the off - season [19] - **Pre - sale of new beet sugar**: The pre - sale of new beet sugar in the north started in April, and the pre - sale progress is fast due to the restricted import of syrup and premixed powder [20] - **Production outlook in Guangxi**: The sugarcane planting area in Guangxi is expected to increase by 3%. Although the current plant height is shorter than in previous years, there is hope for an increase in production if the weather is favorable. The start - up time of sugar mills in Guangxi this year is not expected to be delayed [21] - **Operating difficulties of sugar traders**: Sugar mills and refineries are profitable, and terminal food enterprises are in a relatively good situation, while sugar traders, especially small and medium - sized ones, are facing great pressure and are at risk of being squeezed out of the market [22][23] - **Market outlook**: Most research institutions expect the domestic white sugar spot price to decline in the future. For futures, the upward movement is restricted by the expected increase in refined sugar supply, and the downward movement is restricted by purchase prices and high basis. The future operation range of Zhengzhou sugar is estimated to be between 5,400 - 6,100 yuan per ton [24] 3. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - **International market**: The international sugar market is in a bearish cycle. Brazil's sugar production is expected to be high, and the production prospects of Asian major producing countries are also optimistic. However, due to factors such as low - level buying demand, uncertain Brazilian production, and a narrow sugar - alcohol price difference, the downside space of ICE raw sugar is limited, with an estimated operating range of 16 - 18 cents per pound [25][26] - **Domestic market**: As the arrival volume of imported sugar increases, the pricing of the market is expected to gradually shift to refined sugar. The weak external market will also affect the domestic pricing expectation of refined sugar. However, the high - basis state will restrict the downward rhythm of futures prices. The Zhengzhou sugar market is expected to be mainly oscillating and weak, with the September contract estimated to fluctuate between 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported sugar, COFCO's pricing, and the performance of the external market [27]

【周三纽约原糖期货下跌，郑糖跟随走弱】周三，纽约原糖期货下跌，主力7月合约收低0.89%，至 16.75美分/磅。伦敦ICE白糖期货主力8月合约收高1.2%，至468.10美元/吨。巴西天气转好利于压榨生 产，令糖价承压走弱。伊朗核问题谈判进入关键期，对糖价影响有限。 昨日，郑糖主力合约跟随原糖 走弱。09合约收盘5730元/吨，下跌2元，或0.03%，增仓723张。国内产区现货价报价持平，昆明糖报价 5965元，南宁糖报价6135元。 今日郑糖跟随原糖回落，大投机空头继续增仓杀跌，产业席位减持空 单。连续下跌后，现货企稳，杀跌动能释放。若原糖无大跌行情，内盘可能止跌反弹。【巴西港口食糖 装运与出口数据有变化】巴西航运机构周四发布数据显示，截至6月4日当周，巴西港口等待装运食糖的 船只数量为90艘，与此前一周持平。港口等待装运的食糖数量为324.7万吨，较此前一周下降4%。 当周 等待出口的食糖总量中，高等级原糖数量为303.73万吨，较上一周下降3%。桑托斯港等待出口的食糖 数量较上周下降7%，帕拉纳瓜港下降11%。【巴西国家石油公司下调汽油价格】6月2日，巴西国家石 油公司宣布，从6月3日起，将向分销商出 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar: Sugarcane planting area has increased due to economic benefits, policy support, and enterprise incentives, but early drought in Guangxi has limited sugar production growth. Sugar consumption is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, with a stable supply - demand gap and an expected import volume of 5 million tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Xinjiang's stable cotton target price subsidy policy has maintained farmers' planting enthusiasm, increasing the planting area slightly, while the area in inland regions has decreased. With good climate conditions during sowing and emergence, the expected yield per hectare is 2,172 kg (144.8 kg per mu), the same as last year. The total production is expected to reach 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase. Affected by US tariffs, cotton consumption is expected to be weak, but there is still uncertainty. The expected consumption for the new year is 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last year, and the import volume is adjusted down to 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. Data Summary 1. Price and Spread Data - **External Quotes**: On June 4 - 5, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.78% from $16.75 to $16.62, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.42% from $65.05 to $65.32 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Sugar spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged at 6,090 and 5,910 respectively; the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.01% from 3,281 to 3,280, and the cotton price in Xinjiang remained at 14,450 [3]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and SR09 - 01 increased by 11.11%, 6.88%, and 5.65% respectively; the spread of CF01 - 05 decreased by 33.33%, and the spread of CF05 - 09 increased by 12.50%, while the spread of CF09 - 01 remained unchanged [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of sugar 01, 05, and 09 increased by 8.74%, 9.01%, and 11.11% respectively; the basis of cotton 01, 05, and 09 increased by 1.55%, 1.13%, and 1.49% respectively [3]. 2. Import and Profit Data - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 78.25 on June 4 - 5, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained at 1,609 on June 4 - 5, 2025 [3]. 3. Option and Volatility Data - **Options**: For options SR509C5700 and SR509P5700, the implied volatility is 0.0781 and 0.0785 respectively, with SR509 as the futures underlying and a historical volatility of 9.04; for options CF509C13200 and CF509P13200, the implied volatility is 0.0964 and 0.0943 respectively, with CF509 as the futures underlying and a historical volatility of 12.42 [3]. 4. Warehouse Receipt Data - On June 4 - 5, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.34% from 30,300 to 29,893, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% from 10,977 to 10,939 [3]. Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19th - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a large - scale domestic futures company, wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - power member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [1][9].

期货盯盘神器专属文章 亚洲糖周报：泰国精炼糖市场价格有何波动？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi is the largest sugar production area in China, producing approximately 6 million tons annually, accounting for over 60% of the national output. The local government aims to enhance the integration of futures and spot markets to promote the sugar industry and regional economic development [1] Group 1: Market Background - In 2024, domestic sugar prices fluctuated, with the average sales price for sugar enterprises dropping from 6,561 yuan/ton to 6,075 yuan/ton. The total sugar production for the 2024/2025 season is expected to be 11.15 million tons, an increase of about 1.19 million tons from the previous season [2] - The sugar market is influenced by various factors, including low carryover stocks and tight processing sugar sources, leading to strong spot prices initially. However, international market changes have introduced uncertainties, with expectations of increased domestic sugar imports and production, posing risks to future sugar prices [2] Group 2: Implementation Process - In January 2025, a major sugar enterprise in Guangxi adopted a hybrid trading model to lock in production profits amid concerns of falling sugar prices. This model integrated off-market options into their spot trading [3] Group 3: Business Model - The enterprise signed a spot purchase contract with a trading company, embedding structured off-market options into the contract while monitoring futures contract closing prices to confirm transaction volumes [4] Group 4: Pricing Scheme - The contract activates when the Zhengzhou sugar 2505 contract exceeds 5,920 yuan/ton, with a validity of 70 days and a base transaction volume of 50 tons per day. The pricing mechanism allows for premium sales compared to market prices, providing a safety margin against price drops [5] Group 5: Effectiveness Evaluation - The enterprise successfully achieved premium sales, with the 2505 contract price ranging from 5,821 to 6,198 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6,170 yuan/ton. The average sales price was approximately 50 yuan/ton higher than the market price during the same period [6] Group 6: Risk Management and Training - The hybrid trading model simplifies the use of options for sugar enterprises, addressing challenges such as lack of expertise and management constraints. It enhances revenue while providing a safety margin against price risks [8] - Training sessions and workshops have been conducted to improve risk management awareness among enterprises, covering market trends, price volatility, and risk assessment methods [11] Group 7: Market Development - The introduction of short-term options in February 2023 is expected to significantly boost hybrid trading, allowing for better alignment with enterprises' short-term turnover needs and reducing costs associated with traditional options [12]