以下文章来源于镜相工作室 ，作者镜相作者 镜相工作室 . 商业世界的风向与人 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 从"不出海，就出局"到"再不去中东，就晚了"，过去两年，中东是中国出海人讨论最多的目的地之 一。而人口上占海湾六国60%、地理上连接欧亚非三大洲的沙特，则是没有人舍得忽略的一块大蛋 糕。 这里毫无疑问是一片热土。沙特王储小萨勒曼在2016年推出雄心勃勃的"2030愿景"，推动经济开 放和产业多元化转型；沙特人口结构中，约有60%为30岁以下的年轻人，人均收入较高，国民社会 福利较好，释放出旺盛的消费力。 人人都看得见沙特的红利和机会，渴望在这片富庶丰饶之地实现野心抱负，但真正落地难上加难。许 多中国经验在这里失效，新与旧的冲突每天都在这片土地上发生：利雅得商场里的年轻阿拉伯女性， 已经露出头发，在职场独当一面；而在较为保守的南部，一些女性还穿着全身黑袍；当来自成熟商业 社会的外来者认为这里效率低下时，部分沙特本地人却在抱怨改革太快、太激进。 当出海人躬身入局，"富得流油、遍地捡钱"的滤镜褪去，才发现这片土地在巨大想象力和吸引力之 外，更多是悬而未决的问题。 "富得流油、遍地捡钱"的滤镜褪 ...

Core Insights - Japan's hotel and lodging market is diverse, encompassing various types from budget business hotels to high-end resorts, with a total of approximately 1.5 million guest rooms as of 2024 [1] - The hotel industry in Japan is experiencing a strong recovery post-COVID-19, with domestic tourism surpassing pre-pandemic levels and international tourist arrivals expected to reach a record high in 2024 [1][2] - The average occupancy rate for Japanese hotels in the first half of 2024 is around 74.4%, with an average daily rate (ADR) of approximately $129 and revenue per available room (RevPAR) of about $96, nearing or surpassing historical records from 2019 [2] Market Overview - Japan's hotel market includes both international hotel chains and local brands, with significant growth in domestic brands like APA Hotel, which aims to expand its room count to 150,000 by 2027 [3][4] - Major international brands such as Marriott, Hilton, and IHG are expanding their presence in Japan through partnerships and management contracts with local companies [6][7] - The hotel market in key cities like Tokyo and Osaka shows strong performance, with Tokyo's hotel RevPAR reaching ¥22,900 in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 16% increase from the previous year [9][10] Investment Trends - The investment landscape in Japan's hotel sector is characterized by a mix of acquisitions of existing assets and new developments, with a notable trend of foreign capital entering the market [20][21] - The average construction cost for hotels has risen by over 25% from 2021 to 2023, leading to a preference for acquisitions and renovations over new builds [21] - Japan's hotel REITs provide liquidity and exit strategies for investors, with several REITs focusing on hotel properties showing recovery in dividends and market value post-pandemic [23][26] Future Opportunities - The influx of international tourists, particularly from neighboring countries, presents significant growth potential for the hotel industry, with the government targeting 60 million annual visitors by 2030 [33] - Major events like the 2025 Osaka World Expo are expected to drive hotel demand and occupancy rates in the region [33] - The limited supply of new hotel developments due to high land costs and regulatory constraints enhances the bargaining power of existing hotels, leading to potential price increases [34] Challenges - The hotel industry faces risks related to dependence on specific international markets, particularly China and South Korea, which could impact visitor numbers amid economic fluctuations [36] - Labor shortages and rising operational costs pose challenges for hotel management, with many establishments struggling to maintain service quality [37] - The potential for oversupply in certain markets, particularly in Osaka due to upcoming events, raises concerns about long-term sustainability post-event [38]

Group 1 - The tourism market is experiencing a significant increase in activity as the "May Day" holiday approaches, with online hotel and flight searches rising sharply, indicating a peak in bookings [1][2] - Domestic travel bookings for the "May Day" holiday have more than doubled compared to the same period last year, with self-driving tours, free travel, and group tours showing particularly high growth [1] - The "May Day" holiday is characterized by three main trends: rapid growth in long-distance travel, a two-way increase in cross-border travel, and a resurgence in county-level tourism, contributing to structural growth in the tourism market [1][3] Group 2 - Ctrip's report indicates that the holiday travel consumption is marked by explosive growth in long-distance travel and a significant increase in inbound travel orders, which surged by 173% year-on-year [1][3] - The proportion of cross-city accommodation orders has exceeded 80%, with deep travel users planning to stay for two days or more expected to reach 20% [3] - Popular domestic destinations include traditional cities like Beijing and Shanghai, while emerging destinations such as Taiyuan and Yining are also seeing significant growth in hotel bookings [3][4] Group 3 - The overall transaction volume (GMV) for travel services has increased by approximately 65% year-on-year, with product diversity growing by 55.25% [3] - The "May Day" holiday is expected to reach a historical peak in travel heat, with the travel peak anticipated to occur in the first two days of the holiday [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have announced policies to optimize the outbound tax refund system, which is expected to boost inbound tourism and shopping [4][5] Group 4 - Companies like Ctrip are expected to benefit from the growing demand for travel, as high-level consumption continues to expand [6] - Huazhu Group's adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 is projected to grow by 10%, with an upward revision of EBITDA forecasts for 2025-2026 [6] - China Duty Free Group is expected to see revenue growth driven by the recovery of port traffic and operational optimizations, with new store policies creating growth opportunities [6]

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前，中美贸易谈判可能进展有限；国内的政策是托底和应对式的，4月只是第一波以试验和预防为特征 的政策；筹码出清相对彻底且对业绩不敏感的主题阶段性占优；市场整体情绪位置不算低，科技板块相对医药和消费更接近冰点，对风偏 回升更敏感。配置上，5月关注新技术和产业题材轮动、海外科技映射链修复以及服务业扩内需政策落地。 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前， 中美贸易谈判可能进展有限 近期特朗普针对关税问题表态持续反复，美股市场反应较为敏感。但我们认为国内投资者不需要花精力关心这些高频变化，特朗普试图灵活 利用关税武器来制造谈判筹码，而中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示"如果美方真的想解决问题，就应该正视国际社会和国内各方理性声音， 彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施，通过平等对话，找到解决分歧的办法"。我们建议还是关注特朗普未来一年面临的两大约束，一是7~8月需 要推进债务上限谈判和减税法案通过，二是明年中期选举。尽管目前特朗普的民调支持率已经开始明显下降，但这属于每个美国总统百日新 政后正常的回落，而特朗普两次任期的民调本身就比其他美国总统偏低，目前 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京4月27日电（胡晨曦）近期多地推出促消费政策，叠加"五一"假期临近，零售、餐饮、食品饮料等线下消费预期升温，推动相关个股活跃，不 少新消费个股股价创出历史新高。另一方面，数据显示今年"五一"出行数据预期向好，酒店、餐饮、新零售等多个赛道配置机遇获机构看好。 新消费个股表现亮眼 三大新特点引破圈 近期，在潮玩、宠物用品、零食、黄金珠宝、化妆品、个人护理等赛道中，都涌现出了股价表现亮眼的个股，中宠股份、乖宝宠物、泡泡玛特、卫龙美味等 一批新消费个股均创出历史新高，机构认为新消费周期或将出现。 新华财经据此梳理新消费概念股如下： 东吴证券研报对新消费的特点进行了深入剖析。新消费具有"人传人""可交易""易造梗"等独特特点。与传统消费不同，新消费的消费习惯、产品以及品牌具 备"人传人"的传播性。其最终目的是让用户成为营销官，不再依赖公司投放广告，而是让用户主动进行营销。同时，股东也会积极参与营销，形成一个"圈 层群体"的整体营销模式。 "可交易"是新消费公司的重要特性。一方面，新消费公司大多为上市公司，公司股票具备可交易性，从IPO开始就能实现品牌力破圈。另一方面，若公司产 品产生了二手市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The event held on April 25, 2025, in Yancheng aimed to promote industrial development and attract investment, showcasing the city's commitment to high-quality growth and collaboration with various sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event attracted listed companies, well-known enterprises, experts, and institutional leaders from cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing, resulting in 20 signed projects with a total investment exceeding 2 billion yuan [3]. - The projects span multiple sectors, including modern finance, headquarters economy, cultural tourism, and smart cities, providing strong momentum for the Yancheng Urban Group's development [3]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Goals - The Yancheng Urban Group, led by Chairman Feng Kaiyin, aims to leverage opportunities from state-owned enterprise reforms, with total assets surpassing 93.8 billion yuan, focusing on six core sectors: real estate development, cultural tourism, asset management, urban services, medical beauty and health, and technology industries [5]. - The group has set a target to exceed 120 billion yuan in assets within three years, positioning itself as a leading urban comprehensive operator in China [5]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The event highlighted the strategic positioning of Yancheng in five key industries: robotics, green low-carbon technology, artificial intelligence, digital economy, and new display technologies, which are seen as forward-looking by industry leaders [5]. - The Yancheng Urban Group is recognized for its resource integration capabilities, making it a trusted strategic partner for investments in the region [5]. Group 4: Project Signings and Economic Impact - A total of 20 quality projects were signed, including those in renewable energy, modern finance, and cultural tourism, which are expected to enhance traditional industries and foster new economic growth [10]. - Traditional industries will see improvements with projects like Accor Hotels and youth hostels, projected to generate over 10 million yuan in annual tax revenue [10]. - New industries will benefit from collaborations such as the hydrogen production facility and mobile charging robot assembly, creating nearly 1,000 jobs and driving the group's industrial transformation [10]. Group 5: Future Development and Collaboration - The event included a high-quality development consultant appointment ceremony, with industry leaders from finance, cultural tourism, and construction being recognized to support the group's industrial upgrades and investment attraction [8]. - The Yancheng Urban Group aims to create a new benchmark for urban integration in the Yangtze River Delta region, inviting partners to explore collaborative opportunities [5][8].

Core Insights - The high-end accommodation market in Qingdao is expanding rapidly, with over 20 five-star standard hotels established in the last five years, including several international brands making their debut in Shandong [1][2][3] - Major international hotel groups are increasingly opening their first locations in Qingdao, with eight out of the top ten global high-end hotel management groups choosing to establish their first hotels in the city [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Qingdao's hotel market is experiencing a surge in demand, with hotel order volumes increasing by 28% year-on-year, driven by the upcoming May Day holiday and a growing "holiday economy" [2] - The Marriott International Group has significantly expanded its presence in Qingdao, with multiple brands including St. Regis, Westin, and Le Meridien already operational, and new projects like the dual-brand Qingdao Jinmao hotels set to open soon [2][3] - The InterContinental Hotels Group has also announced the opening of its first Indigo hotel in Qingdao, emphasizing local cultural integration and unique guest experiences [3][4] Group 2: Economic and Tourism Potential - Qingdao is recognized as a city with international tourism appeal, supported by its strong economic foundation, including being one of China's major foreign trade ports and home to significant enterprises like Haier and Tsingtao Brewery [6][7] - The city is actively pursuing new industries and has been approved as a pilot city for asset investment companies, indicating a robust economic growth trajectory with a projected GDP of 16,719.46 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 5.7% increase from the previous year [8][9] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the influx of international hotel brands, Qingdao's hotel market still faces challenges, with 80% of its hotels being low-end, and only 2% classified as high-end, indicating a significant imbalance in accommodation quality [10][11] - The seasonal nature of tourism in Qingdao leads to high vacancy rates during off-peak months, with summer accounting for 60% of annual tourist traffic, highlighting the need for improved year-round demand [11][12] - The local economy's reliance on traditional industries and the lack of strong private enterprises contribute to insufficient business travel demand, which is crucial for sustaining high-end hotel occupancy [12][13] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The high vacancy rate in Qingdao's office buildings, currently at 35%, presents an opportunity for converting these properties into mid-to-high-end hotels, leveraging their prime locations and existing infrastructure [14][15] - Upgrading low-efficiency assets, particularly older hotels with good locations, could meet the rising demand for quality accommodations and enhance the overall hotel market [15][16] - Redefining hotel experiences to incorporate local culture and community engagement could attract both tourists and local residents, creating a unique destination within Qingdao [16][17]

Core Insights - The hotel investment market in China has become increasingly active, with a projected transaction value of 187.9 billion yuan for 2024, expected to remain stable at around 180 billion yuan in 2025 [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Activity - The hotel investment market has seen significant transactions, including a notable acquisition by Tongcheng Travel of Wanda Hotel Management for approximately 2.497 billion yuan, marking one of the largest deals in recent years [2] - As of April 24, 2023, there have been 18 hotel assets with a starting price exceeding 100 million yuan that have failed to sell on the Alibaba auction platform, indicating ongoing challenges despite market activity [1][4] - Approximately 60% of hotel transactions occur in first-tier cities, with new first-tier cities emerging as a growing investment area, increasing their share of hotel investment transactions by 6 percentage points from 2015-2019 to 2020-2024 [3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The active hotel investment market is driven by various factors, including cash flow pressures faced by some hotel asset holders, leading to discounted sales that create opportunities for investors [3] - Hotel assets are viewed as attractive investment options for high-net-worth individuals seeking diversification and inflation hedging [3] - The valuation of hotel assets requires consideration of multiple dimensions, including cash flow returns, market supply and demand, and replacement costs [5] Group 3: Legal and Risk Considerations - Legal risks in hotel investment transactions include property ownership disputes, compliance with operating licenses, and management contract issues, which are critical for ensuring transaction value [5] - The traditional exit strategies for hotel assets have been equity transfers and asset sales, but the potential introduction of public REITs could provide new avenues for asset liquidation and enhance liquidity [5][6] - The importance of legal risk management in hotel investment transactions is emphasized as it is crucial for compliance and transaction value [5]

以下文章来源于镜相工作室 ，作者镜相作者 镜相工作室 . "富得流油、遍地捡钱"的滤镜褪去。 作者 | 李丹 编辑 | 赵磊 来源 | 镜相工作室 从"不出海，就出局"到"再不去中东，就晚了"，过去两年，中东是中国出海人讨论最多 的目的地之一。而人口上占海湾六国60%、地理上连接欧亚非三大洲的沙特，则是没有 人舍得忽略的一块大蛋糕。 这里毫无疑问是一片热土。沙特王储小萨勒曼在2016年推出雄心勃勃的"2030愿景"， 推动经济开放和产业多元化转型；沙特人口结构中，约有60%为30岁以下的年轻人，人 均收入较高，国民社会福利较好，释放出旺盛的消费力。 人人都看得见沙特的红利和机会，渴望在这片富庶丰饶之地实现野心抱负，但真正落地 难上加难。许多中国经验在这里失效，新与旧的冲突每天都在这片土地上发生：利雅得 商场里的年轻阿拉伯女性，已经露出头发，在职场独当一面；而在较为保守的南部，一 些女性还穿着全身黑袍；当来自成熟商业社会的外来者认为这里效率低下时，部分沙特 本地人却在抱怨改革太快、太激进。 当出海人躬身入局，"富得流油、遍地捡钱"的滤镜褪去，才发现这片土地在巨大想象力 和吸引力之外，更多是悬而未决的问题。 考察 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the company is negatively impacted by the downturn in industry prosperity, with limited improvements in direct operations and overseas loss reduction, indicating significant room for future enhancement [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company's performance fell short of expectations, with a downward revision of EPS for 2025/26 to 0.99/1.19 yuan (-0.28/-0.27) and a new EPS forecast of 1.42 yuan for 2027, leading to net profits of 9.61/11.74/14.16 billion yuan for 2025/26/27 [2] - For the full year 2024, revenue was 14.063 billion yuan, down 4.0%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 911 million yuan, down 9.06% [2] - In Q4 2024, revenue was 3.273 billion yuan, down 8.51%, with a net loss of 195 million yuan compared to a profit of 26.73 million yuan in Q4 2023 [2] Loss Expansion Analysis - The expansion of losses is primarily due to a decrease in operating profit of 37 million yuan in the domestic limited-service hotel segment and a net loss of 437 million yuan in overseas operations, compared to a loss of 409 million yuan in 2023 [3] - Revenue from direct operations decreased by 18%, mainly due to a reduction in the number of stores, while the total franchise fees from domestic and overseas businesses fell by 19% [3] - The revenue growth rate from booking channel fees declined by 11.4% [3] Efficiency Improvement Potential - The company has several avenues for efficiency improvement, including reducing losses in direct operations, increasing the proportion of CRS, and improving capital structure [3] - In 2024, the company closed 63 direct stores, contributing to loss reduction, but overall losses expanded due to a decline in RevPAR driven by industry downturn [3] - The company confirmed a credit impairment of 130 million yuan for 2024, with 117 million yuan recognized in Q4, primarily related to accounts receivable impairment [3] - The company projects revenue for 2025 to be between 14.3 billion and 15 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2-7%, and plans to open 1,300 new stores and sign 2,000 new contracts [3]